Posts Tagged ‘Halliburton’

Dick Cheney, RIP

Tuesday, November 4th, 2025

Former Vice President Dick Cheney has died at age 84. It’s easy to talk about why Cheney is widely disliked (indeed, loathed) by many Republicans now. It’s much harder to remember and talk about why he was so widely admired by Republicans in his heyday.

One of the first things to remember about Cheney is he had a long resume in Republican politics. He was Gerald R. Ford’s Chief of Staff, a U.S. congressman from Wyoming, Chair of the House Republican Policy Committee, Chair of the House Republican Conference, and (briefly) House Minority Whip, roles in which he was preceded or succeeded by people like Jack Kemp, Trent Lott and Newt Gingrich. He was clearly regarded as a very mainstream conservative Republican at the time.

After the senate rejected the nomination of former Texas Senator John Tower to be Secretary of Defense, Bush41 tapped Cheney for the role. Cheney was so unpopular that he sailed through the senate on a vote of 92 to 0, including Yea votes from such notorious left-wingers as Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, Daniel Inouye and Barbara Mikulski (not to mention Joe Biden). Obviously, it was a different time. His election was so in the bag a whole bunch of Republicans (like Phil Gramm) didn’t even bother voting.

Cheney was widely regarded as a very good Secretary of Defense, helping oversee the end of the Cold War with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, overseeing a successful invasion of Panama to remove dictator and drug-trafficker Manuel Noriega, and overseeing the successful operation of Desert Storm. Cheney was not the primary architect of Desert Storm, but was heavily involved in the planning carried out by General Norman Schwarzkopf, and he let Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Colin Powell function as the public face of the D.C. end of the operation. He deserves credit for solid administration at a time the defense budget was actually shrinking.

By the standards of late 20th-century Republican, or indeed, consensus foreign-policy positions, Cheney’s views (muscular, anti-communist, Atlanticist, pro-Israel, globalist, etc.) were deeply uncontroversial at the time. The need to liberate Kuwait to prevent Saddam Hussein from controlling that much of the world’s oil supply was a bipartisan consensus policy, as shown by the congressional vote authorizing the use of military force against Iraq, which even Al Gore voted in favor of. At the time, “Neo-conservative” only meant a former liberal who had become a conservative, usually for their opposition to communism. The only significant voice on the right arguing against Desert Storm was Patrick Buchanan, who was considered more than a little funny about Jews.

Bush41 would lose to the political gifted but morally corrupt Bill Clinton (who would eek out two electoral pluralities thanks to Ross Perot), and Cheney would go off the run Halliburton.

I don’t remember the increasingly leftwing press flipping the switch from “Ordinary Politician” to “Master of Darkness” on Cheney until Bush43 tapped him as his Vice Presidential running mate. The press hated Bush43 for his “cowboy” manners, his accent, his parentage, and whomping favorite Ann Richards to get elected Texas governor. But their fury grew to gargantuan proportions following the 2000 Florida “hanging chad” election, where W managed to deploy enough legal firepower to prevent Democrats from stealing away his narrow 537 vote win. The victory in the Gulf War only made them hate Bush all the more, especially when Halliburton got picked to help run post-war reconstruction in Iraq.

Until Trump broke liberal brains, there were generally only two ways the modern left-leaning press thought of Republican Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates: Evil masterminds (Nixon, Agnew, Dole (to an extent)) or dunces (Ford, Reagan, Bush43, Quayle, Palin, Ryan). If Bush43 was the dunce, then Cheney must be the evil mastermind. Cheney didn’t mind being the heavy, and didn’t seem to care what the press thought about him. (Accidentally shooting a guy in the face on a hunting trip didn’t help either.) Republicans liked Cheney for the same reason; he may have been a sonofabitch, but he was our sonofabitch. Having never been elected to the House or Senate, Bush43 delegated a lot of tasks to Cheney, since he knew the ends and outs of how the sausage got made, which gave rise to the leftwing myth of Cheney being the “evil puppetmaster” controlling 43. This was always bunk.

Caspar Weinberger and Donald Rumsfeld were never treated with the absolute loathing the left aimed at Cheney…but they almost certainly would have been had they been Bush43’s veep pick.

Somewhere along the way, “Neo-conservative” morphed away from its classical meaning to shorthand for “anyone who ever supported either Iraqi war or the war in Afghanistan,” never mind that all were overwhelmingly supported by Republicans at the time, just as the expensive difficulties of reconstructing Iraq came to be condensed down to “nation-building,” and Cheney was retroactively convicted of both.

Along the way, the Cheney=evil meme became so codified that The Simpsons had Smithers work for him after leaving Mr. Burns’ employ.

Then along came Donald Trump, and all the rules that had held for Republicans since at least Reagan went by the wayside. In 2016 Cheney reluctantly endorsed Trump after he clinched the nomination, became further alienated from him after Trump’s criticism of daughter Liz Cheney, and ultimately voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. When he started criticizing Trump, Dick Cheney earned Strange New Respectâ„¢ from the leftwing media that had previously declared him the devil incarnate.

To an extent, Cheney’s Trump-skepticism was not uncommon among Bush Republicans. A whole lot of Republicans (myself included) backed Ted Cruz in 2016, were disappointed when Trump won the nomination (ditto), and were skeptical Trump would govern as a conservative (ditto). Most of us were very pleasantly surprised when Trump made solid Supreme Court picks. Indeed, as the left became more radically unhinged in their searing hatred for Trump, the more Trump policy resembled that of traditional conservative Republicans.

But for Cheney, and the small handful of Trump Derangement Syndrome sufferers on the establishment right, AKA Conservatism Inc., AKA Cruise Ship Conservatism, nothing could every sway them away from their initial distaste and dislike of Trump. He was always going to be Spy magazine’s short-fingered vulgarian, and was simply NOKD (Not Our Kind, Dear). Never mind that in 10 months, Trump47 has more real policy accomplishments than any President since Reagan. It will never be enough to change their irrational loathing of him. And they’ll never celebrate all his #winning because he keeps winning the wrong way.

Cheney was a very successful Secretary of Defense and Vice President, but like many Bush Republicans, the world changed underneath him, and he could never accept that Trump was a rebuke not only to the social justice excesses of Obama, but to various policy failures under both Bushes.

Is China Screwed?

Thursday, April 14th, 2022

Here are two videos where Peter Zeihan argues that China is screwed for many reasons, not least of which is demographics.

Takeaways:

  • One child per couple means that China is “the fastest aging society in human history, with the largest sex imbalance in human history.”
  • “They’ve run out of people of childbearing age.”
  • They were going shrink in half by 2100. “Then they realized that they had been overcounting people for some time.” Then new data moved the date moved up to 2070. And now they’re saying it will be 2050. “For that to be true, the Chinese would have overcounted the population by 100 million.” And all of those missing people are of childbearing age.
  • Their population actually peaked 15 years ago.
  • “We’ve seen a 12-fold increase in Chinese labor costs since 1991.”
  • “China isn’t getting rich, it’s getting old.” They’re facing demographic collapse within a decade.
  • Xi’s instituted a cult of personality, and silenced anyone capable of independent thought. “He knows that the country’s current economic model has failed. And he knows he can’t guarantee economic growth, and he knows he can’t keep the lights on, and he knows he can’t win a war with the Americans.”
  • Xi’s solution? “Naked, blatant, ultra nationalism. Ethnocentric ultranationalism of the Nazi style.”
  • At the top, they don’t care about keeping the lights on. “A third of the country is facing power rationing.”
  • “These are the sorts of things that you do if you know that the bottom’s falling out and there’s nothing you can do about it, and you have to shift the conversation to remain in power.”
  • “In China, money is a political good. It exists to serve the needs of the CCP.”
  • “All of the economic growth we have seen in China since 2006 is because of debt.”
  • Corporate debt is 350% of GDP, “making China the most indebted country in human history in both absolute and relative terms.” Every country that’s come within half of this has collapsed under the debt load.
  • I’m omitting discussion of how China is screwed on semiconductors (covered enough here), and also the possibility of invading Taiwan (this video was released late last year, before Russia invaded Ukraine).
  • “The Biden administration in bits and pieces is redefining strategic ambiguity, and it’s not clear to me what the endgame is here.” Well, there’s a whole lot that isn’t clear about the Biden Administration…
  • Zeihan thinks Biden might recognize Taiwan for a foreign policy win. Zeihan also thinks that both China and Russia are so weak we can wait them out. (Remember: Pre-Ukraine invasion.)
  • Zeihan dismissive of both Obama and Trump foreign policy.
  • “Joe Biden has been on the wrong side and the right side of every foreign policy decision the U.S. has made in the last 45 years, because he doesn’t have any core beliefs he tacks with the wind.”
  • Now let’s forward to March 24, where Russia’s colossal failure in Ukraine has actually made China even more screwed.

    Takeaways:

  • The biggest damage that we are seeing from the Ukraine war (outside of Ukraine, obviously) is in China. Because in one month the Russians have pulled back the blinders on what has been a 50-year strategic program, the idea that China can come to global power with American sponsorship, with American indifference, that it can take Taiwan, that it can intimidate Japan, that they can dominate all of east Asia and yet not suffer economically at all. It was always ridiculous, but now it’s been shown to just be absolutely stupid.

  • No one can escape the power of global markets because of trade.
  • “The yuan is only traded internally because it’s the most manipulated currency in history. The euro confiscates bank deposits to pay for bailouts.”
  • Russia is the world’s second largest oil exporter, and it can’t export more to China because the pipes that go east don’t interconnect with the ones that go west. “The rail lines are already beyond capacity.”
  • In the west: “One way or another, those pipes aren’t surviving this year.” (Not sure that’s correct, but I’ve long thought that we should be seeing more structure hits inside Russia than we’ve seen thus far.)
  • “The stuff that goes to the Black Sea is in a war zone, so insurance companies will not give the indemnification that is necessary for vessels to operate in that area. So the only way a ship can go and dock it overseas right now is if a country gives its sovereign indemnification and takes all the risk.”
  • Primorsk, on the Baltic, is open. However: “Ship captains for the most part are refusing to go, and European dock workers are refusing to unload the cargo when it arrives. So that is still in use but not nearly as much, maybe a quarter of what it used to be before the war started.”
  • To get more oil to China: “You would have to build a fundamentally new infrastructure from the fields in northwest Siberia to Chinese population centers that is greater than the distance from Miami to Anchorage, most of which is through virgin territory that is very rugged. That’s a 10-year program minimum even with the Chinese building it.”
  • “We’re looking at the single largest removal of crude from the market ever, and in proportional terms it’s going to have a shock somewhat similar to World War II.”
  • We have insurance companies not doing it, shipping companies not doing it, dock workers not doing it and now Halliburton, Baker Hughes and Schlumberger have pulled out, and they do the technical work that makes a lot of this possible. All the super majors are gone, and we even have a couple of major projects out in Sakhalin that are probably just going to die because the Russians can’t make those projects work by themselves. Most of the oil and gas out of that goes to China, so we’re actually looking at an environment where the Chinese see reduced flows rather than increased, as Russia is just melon-scooped out of the market.

  • When the Russians fell under sanctions, everything that the Chinese thought was true about their future was laid bare as, at best, wishful thinking and bad analysis. So they are now looking east to the United States and west to the Russians in a little bit of a panic, because they are being tied indirectly to what’s going on in Ukraine. And they have now found out not only does the west’s and specifically the United States’ financial tools work very well, they now know they would work much better against China than against Russia, because at its core Russia is a commodities exporter, most notably oil, natural gas and food. China imports all those things, so if an equivalent sanctions regime was done against the Chinese, you’d have 500 million dead Chinese in less than a year from starvation.

    Here I think he overstates the case, as there are a lot of emergency avenues a communist government could pursue to stave off starvation. Like invading Mongolia and turning it into emergency farmland. Which is not to so they wouldn’t have some starvation, especially in worse-case scenarios…

  • “The Chinese have always seen themselves as anti-American [well, the commies, anyway -LP], they’ve always seen themselves as anti-Western, anti-democracy and now they’re realizing that the mood of the man in the White House determines whether their country exists.”
  • As tight as the sanctions are, as big as they’re getting, they’re nothing compared to the corporate boycotts. Almost every single company that left Russia was under no legal requirement to do so, they just didn’t want to be associated with the war. And we’re talking about those ESG, social goody two-shoes mammoth companies like Exxon and Halliburton, who are now gone, and everyone else followed. So if that happened to China, you know that’s all of their investment that matters. That’s all of their technology transfers, that’s all of their end markets. This system, if it turned against China, would be far more damning than anything we’ve seen out of Russia so far.

  • I think Zeihan overstates the case a bit, and probably immanizes the timeline of crisis more than warranted, but the demographic and economic challenges China faces are very real.

    Also keep in mind that no one in 1988 expected the Soviet Union to collapse as quickly as it did, either…