A friend sent a video showing police joining protestors as a sign the regime was crumbling:
🚨 MAJOR BREAKING: The Iranian Police in Ilam has now joined the revolution
People are seen celebrating as police officers put down their weapons. pic.twitter.com/xslBRwQAhg
— Tousi TV (@TousiTVOfficial) January 6, 2026
Tiny problem: The city of Ilam is overwhelmingly Kurdish and very far from Tehran. So we can’t use Ilam as proof that the mullahs are on the brink of losing power, as much as that is a consummation devoutly to be wished.
But it’s an interesting data point, as is Kanal 13’s video on the Islamic regime losing control of Abdanan as well:
And wouldn’t you know it, Abdanan is another Kurdish city in western Iran.
It looks like the mullahs have a Kurdish problem. Or, more specifically, the mullahs can no longer repress the Kurdish problem they’ve always had.
But it’s not just the Kurds! Take a look at this BBC report on where mass protests against the Islamic regime have broken out.
Notice how heavy protests are in the western part of the country:
Those clashes mapped in the upper, western part of the country are probably majority Kurds. But not the ones in the southwestern part of the country. Those are Lurs.
No, not that one.
You may not have heard of the Lurs, because they haven’t played a significant role in the war against the Islamic State, or any of the various other Iraqi and Syrian civil wars, the way the Kurds have. They’re an Iranian ethnic minority with their own language, and while they’re also Shia, they have a lot of syncretic elements from Yarsanism and Zoroastrianism, so naturally the mullahs consider them heretical.
So while having the Kurdish and Lur areas of the country rise up against the Islamic Republic isn’t necessarily a sign of the regime’s immediate demise, it does present a unique challenge to it. Right now, the regime probably needs all its military and security forces to keep a lid on Tehran and adjacent areas, and likely doesn’t have any to spare to bring restive western areas to heel.
Dictatorships with significant minority populations inside their country either need to repress them or buy them off. Vladimir Putin has used both approaches with the Chechens. With its currency in freefall, Iran is too broke and overextended to pay them off, but will be hard-pressed to scrounge up enough muscle to repress them, having to play whack-a-mole with outbreaks of resistance across the country.
And the longer the Kurds and Lurs stay free of Tehran, the more difficult and painful it will be to bring them to heel, even if the mullahs survive the most recent uprising.
