Wednesday, March 4th, 2026
Most of yesterday’s primary races went exactly as you would expect, but there were a few surprises among the results, so let’s dig in.
At the top of the ticket, incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton head to a runoff for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate. Right now, Cornyn is leading Paxton by less than 1.5%, which isn’t a very comfortable position for a longtime incumbent, and I suspect there are plenty of Wesley Hunt voters dissatisfied with Cornyn.
In the U.S. 2nd Congressional District race, Steve Toth thumped incumbent Dan Crenshaw by 17 points. Toth winning isn’t a shock, but doing so by such a robust margin is. From someone who slayed on Saturday Night Live in 2018, Crenshaw’s rise was meteoric, but his fall was no less dramatic. (Previously.) (Also previously.)
For much of the count, scandal-plagued U.S. 23rd Congressional District incumbent Tony Gonzales led challenger Brandon Herrera by a slight margin, but with 96% of the vote in, Herrera leads Gonzales by just under a thousand votes. Herrera almost knocked off Gonzales in 2024, but with undeniable evidence that Gonzales had an extramarital affair with a staffer who killer herself, Gonzales is clearly toast. He should save everybody a lot of time, money and embarrassment and not only bow out of the race, but resign his congressional seat in disgrace so Gov. Greg Abbott can appoint Herrera to replace him for the remainder of his current term as well.
Speaking of Abbott, both he and Lt. Governor Dan Patrick cruised to easy victories, Abbott with 82% of the vote against ten opponents, Patrick with 85% of the vote against three.
In the closely-watched Attorney General race, State Senator Mayes Middleton and U.S. Congressman Chip Roy are headed to a runoff, with Middleton leading by over 150,000 votes. That’s a pretty big gap for Roy to make up.
In the three-way Comptroller race, Don Huffines won outright over Kelly Hancock and Christi Craddick. It’s tempting to think that President Trump’s endorsement of Huffines lifted him to an outright win rather than a runoff, except:
President Trump also endorsed incumbent Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller over challenger Nate Sheets, but Sheets won by 5%. I think this may be the only case where an Abbott-endorsed candidate defeated a Trump-endorsed candidate, unless I’m overlooking a down-ballot race.
Indeed, it was a rare outright victory for Abbott endorsed or appointed candidates this cycle, as Abbott appointees Aaron Reitz (Attorney General) and Kelly Hancock (Comptroller) both went down to defeat.
In the Railroad Commissioner race, incumbent Jim Wright and challenger Bo French are headed to a runoff with a mere 4,000 votes separating them.
U.S. Rep. John Carter handily secured the nomination over a nine challenger circus that included Valentina “Koran-burner” Gomez, who placed second with 10% of the vote, and Offer Vince “Shamwow” Shlomi, who came in a disappointing sixth with 4.1% of the vote.
Unlike the Republican primary, there were zero surprises on the Democrat side, with all the Party’s anointed candidates cruising to victory:
- James Talarico defeated U.S. Congressman Jasmine Crockett by some 150,000 votes, as foretold by the prophecy.
- As predicted, Gina Hinjosa easily secured the right to be slaughtered by Greg Abbott in the Governor’s race, defeating Chris Bell and seven other candidates.
- With 48% of the vote, Vikki Goodwin looks headed to a runoff with Marcos Velez in the Lt. Governor’s race.
- With 48.1% of the vote, Nathan Johnson looks headed for a runoff in the Attorney General race with Joe Jaworski.
- With 48% of the vote, Sarah Eckhardt looks headed to a runoff with Savant Moore in the Comptroller race.
It’s always possible the underdogs in those races might just save themselves time and money and drop out.
The Democrat primary turnout totals should be a wake-up call for the Texas GOP. Usually they run far behind Republican numbers, but this year they’re about at parity, an ominous sign for an off-year election with a Republican in the White House.
Those were the races I was paying attention to. If you noticed others with interesting results, feel free to share them in the comments below.
Tags:2026 Election, 2026 Texas Attorney General Race, 2026 Texas Gubernatorial Race, 2026 Texas Senate Race, 2nd Congressional District, Aaron Reitz, Bo French, Brandon Herrera, Chip Roy, Chris Bell, Christi Craddick, Dan Crenshaw, Don Huffines, Donald Trump, Elections, Endorsements, Gina Hinojosa, Greg Abbott, James Talarico, Jasmine Crockett, Jim Wright (Republican), Joe Jaworksi, John Carter, John Cornyn, Kelly Hancock, Ken Paxton, Mayes Middleton, Nathan Johnson, Nathan Sheets, Offer Vince Shlomi AKA "Shamwow Guy", Republicans, Sarah Eckhardt, Savant Moore, Sid Miller, Steve Toth, Texas, Texas Scorecard, The Texan News, Tony Gonzales, Valentina Gomez, Vikki Goodwin, Wesley Hunt
Posted in Austin, Democrats, Republicans, Texas | 5 Comments »