Posts Tagged ‘2026 Texas Gubernatorial Race’

Texas Primary Election Results: Toth Topples Crenshaw, Huffines Romps, Cornyn/Paxton, Middleton/Roy, Gonzales/Herrera Head To Runoff

Wednesday, March 4th, 2026

Most of yesterday’s primary races went exactly as you would expect, but there were a few surprises among the results, so let’s dig in.

  • At the top of the ticket, incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton head to a runoff for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate. Right now, Cornyn is leading Paxton by less than 1.5%, which isn’t a very comfortable position for a longtime incumbent, and I suspect there are plenty of Wesley Hunt voters dissatisfied with Cornyn.
  • In the U.S. 2nd Congressional District race, Steve Toth thumped incumbent Dan Crenshaw by 17 points. Toth winning isn’t a shock, but doing so by such a robust margin is. From someone who slayed on Saturday Night Live in 2018, Crenshaw’s rise was meteoric, but his fall was no less dramatic. (Previously.) (Also previously.)
  • For much of the count, scandal-plagued U.S. 23rd Congressional District incumbent Tony Gonzales led challenger Brandon Herrera by a slight margin, but with 96% of the vote in, Herrera leads Gonzales by just under a thousand votes. Herrera almost knocked off Gonzales in 2024, but with undeniable evidence that Gonzales had an extramarital affair with a staffer who killer herself, Gonzales is clearly toast. He should save everybody a lot of time, money and embarrassment and not only bow out of the race, but resign his congressional seat in disgrace so Gov. Greg Abbott can appoint Herrera to replace him for the remainder of his current term as well.
  • Speaking of Abbott, both he and Lt. Governor Dan Patrick cruised to easy victories, Abbott with 82% of the vote against ten opponents, Patrick with 85% of the vote against three.
  • In the closely-watched Attorney General race, State Senator Mayes Middleton and U.S. Congressman Chip Roy are headed to a runoff, with Middleton leading by over 150,000 votes. That’s a pretty big gap for Roy to make up.
  • In the three-way Comptroller race, Don Huffines won outright over Kelly Hancock and Christi Craddick. It’s tempting to think that President Trump’s endorsement of Huffines lifted him to an outright win rather than a runoff, except:
  • President Trump also endorsed incumbent Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller over challenger Nate Sheets, but Sheets won by 5%. I think this may be the only case where an Abbott-endorsed candidate defeated a Trump-endorsed candidate, unless I’m overlooking a down-ballot race.
  • Indeed, it was a rare outright victory for Abbott endorsed or appointed candidates this cycle, as Abbott appointees Aaron Reitz (Attorney General) and Kelly Hancock (Comptroller) both went down to defeat.
  • In the Railroad Commissioner race, incumbent Jim Wright and challenger Bo French are headed to a runoff with a mere 4,000 votes separating them.
  • U.S. Rep. John Carter handily secured the nomination over a nine challenger circus that included Valentina “Koran-burner” Gomez, who placed second with 10% of the vote, and Offer Vince “Shamwow” Shlomi, who came in a disappointing sixth with 4.1% of the vote.
  • Unlike the Republican primary, there were zero surprises on the Democrat side, with all the Party’s anointed candidates cruising to victory:
    • James Talarico defeated U.S. Congressman Jasmine Crockett by some 150,000 votes, as foretold by the prophecy.
    • As predicted, Gina Hinjosa easily secured the right to be slaughtered by Greg Abbott in the Governor’s race, defeating Chris Bell and seven other candidates.
    • With 48% of the vote, Vikki Goodwin looks headed to a runoff with Marcos Velez in the Lt. Governor’s race.
    • With 48.1% of the vote, Nathan Johnson looks headed for a runoff in the Attorney General race with Joe Jaworski.
    • With 48% of the vote, Sarah Eckhardt looks headed to a runoff with Savant Moore in the Comptroller race.

    It’s always possible the underdogs in those races might just save themselves time and money and drop out.

    The Democrat primary turnout totals should be a wake-up call for the Texas GOP. Usually they run far behind Republican numbers, but this year they’re about at parity, an ominous sign for an off-year election with a Republican in the White House.

    Those were the races I was paying attention to. If you noticed others with interesting results, feel free to share them in the comments below.

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    Posted in Austin, Democrats, Republicans, Texas | 5 Comments »

    Texas Primary Election Day! Go Vote!

    Tuesday, March 3rd, 2026

    Today is Texas Primary Election Day! If you haven’t already voted early, go vote!

    Remember, due to redistricting, voting cards haven’t been sent out, so just use your driver’s license.

    Some election links:

  • Williamson County voting locations.
  • Travis County voting locations.
  • The Texan offers up election day resources for all 254 Texas counties.
  • General primary information and top of the ticket endorsements.
  • The Attorney General race.
  • The Comptroller and Railroad Commissioner races.
  • Texas Scorecard’s list of conservative group endorsements.
  • Gun Owners of America endorsements.
  • Texas Scorecard’s campaign finance tracker.
  • President Trump offers up his own endorsements in Texas races.

    Endorsements issued by President Donald Trump in recent days for Texas statewide races displayed a split between Gov. Greg Abbott and the president, as the two put support behind different candidates in a handful of contests.

    These include one of the more fiery Republican primaries — the race for Texas Agriculture Commissioner. President Donald Trump threw his support behind incumbent Sid Miller, breaking from Abbott’s selection of Nate Sheets as his favored candidate.

    Abbott endorsed Sheets in January, with strong words about his capability to lead the Texas Department of Agriculture and Miller’s alleged inability to do so. Abbott and Miller have repeatedly clashed over issues throughout both their tenures in office, spanning back to 2020 when Miller joined a lawsuit against the governor regarding the extension of the early voting period during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    In Trump’s endorsement on Friday night, he described Miller as a “MAGA Warrior who has been with me from the very beginning,” and “is doing a terrific job as Agriculture Commissioner for the Great State of Texas…”

    “An Eighth Generation Farmer and Rancher, Sid is an incredibly effective Voice for Texas Agriculture, and our amazing Farmers and Ranchers,” Trump added.

    Leading up to this, Abbott has been traveling across the state alongside Sheets for several “Get Out The Vote” rallies, emphasizing his support for the challenger.

    Trump also endorsed former state senator Don Huffines for Texas Comptroller, over Abbott’s pick: former state Sen. Kelly Hancock and current Acting Comptroller, after he joined the agency as an employee to avoid a constitutional issue.

    Huffines has been a frequent critic of Abbott’s, particularly over his response to COVID-19, also challenging him in the GOP gubernatorial primary in 2022.

    Trump similarly described Huffines as a “MAGA warrior” in his endorsement issued via a Truth Social post, adding that “as a successful Businessman, Don knows the America First Policies required to Grow our Economy, Create GREAT Jobs, Cut Taxes and Regulations, Promote MADE IN THE U.S.A., and Unleash American Energy DOMINANCE.”

    The President also issued a number of key congressional candidate endorsements earlier in the week, splitting from Abbott in two distinct primaries: one for Congressional District (CD) 9, and another in CD 35.

    Trump threw his support behind Republican candidate Alex Mealer in her bid for Congressional District (CD) 9, against state Rep. Briscoe Cain (R-Deer Park), who is endorsed by Abbott.

    Cain and Mealer are running in the district currently held by U.S. Rep. Al Green (D-TX-9), which was heavily impacted by the GOP-favored redistricting map that passed the Texas Legislature during the summer of 2025 — legislation initiated at the White House’s request and voted for by Cain in the Texas House.

    Trump also endorsed one of the Republican primary opponents to State Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) — Carlos De La Cruz, brother of Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz (R-TX-15), in his bid for CD 35. Lujan was endorsed by Abbott for CD 35 in January.

  • A Facebook/Meta PAC is pouring a lot of money into Texas races.

    Super PAC “Forge The Future,” founded by California-based tech giant Meta, reported $1.3 million in Texas expenditures ahead of the upcoming March 3 primary.

    Formed earlier this year, Forge The Future is one of four super PACs controlled by Meta. The PAC’s Texas site states an objective of supporting “conservative candidates” with favorable stances on tech policy issues.

    Three specific focuses listed are support for domestic tech companies, advocacy for an AI-friendly regulatory environment, and increased parental control over children’s online activities.

    Of Forge The Future’s Texas contributions, $800,000 went to a slate of three Texas Senate and eight Texas House candidates, including Rep. Trent Ashby (R-Lufkin) and Rep. David Cook (R-Mansfield) for Senate Districts 3 and 22, respectively.

    Those districts’ proximity to the greater Dallas-Fort Worth area makes them a key early target for placement of AI-friendly legislators, as the area has been a long-time hotbed of Texas technology interests and currently hosts several ongoing data center developments.

    The remaining $500,000 was spent on digital advertising campaigns supporting former state senator and now Acting Comptroller Kelly Hancock’s bid for a full term as Texas comptroller. The ads focus on Hancock’s efforts to lower taxes and improve education, making no specific mention of tech-related issues.

    Forge The Future is one of two super PACs formed by Meta this year, alongside Making Our Tomorrow, which is dedicated to similar technology issues but instead supports Democratic candidates. Making Our Tomorrow has initially focused on contributing to candidates in Illinois, another key state for Meta’s infrastructure.

    Meta’s super PACs, all formed within the last year, represent an overall $65 million investment in political activity and mark a distinct shift from the company’s previous, mostly neutral stance on political spending. This new investment from the tech giant comes at a time of increased scrutiny from legislators and the general public alike on many tech policy issues, including social media, artificial intelligence, and data centers.

    Aside from AI, social media regulation could also pose a problem for Meta. The Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp parent company has been in and out of court in relation to child safety concerns on its platforms; CEO Mark Zuckerberg was most recently called to testify in a landmark tech addiction lawsuit in California court on February 18.

    Meta isn’t the only large tech company ramping up its political spending. Last August saw the formation of Leading The Future, an AI-focused super PAC boasting Silicon Valley backing, which includes names from OpenAI, Perplexity, and Palantir Technologies.

    • Lots of outside money is being poured into Texas races, but Texans are the ones with the power in their hands. Go vote!

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    Posted in Austin, Elections, Republicans, Texas | 1 Comment »

    Texas 2026 Primary Election Roundup For February 17, 2026

    Tuesday, February 17th, 2026

    Texas early voting started today, so here’s a roundup of Texas primary links, along with something that might vaguely resemble endorsements in a “one-eyed man in the land of the blind” sort of way, since I haven’t been paying terribly close attention to this year’s primaries. But the top of the ticket endorsements are easy:

  • Ken Paxton for Senate. I’ve said about Paxton before what Abraham Lincoln said about Ulysses S. Grant: “I cannot spare this man. He fights.” Yesterday I talked to a lawyer who thinks Paxton is a crook, and he’s still going to vote for him over Cornyn.
  • Greg Abbott for Governor. National conservatives may not realize it, but for a long time inside Texas, Abbott was considered a bit of a squishy, consensus-driven Republican, more competent technocrat than conservative firebrand. But the school choice fight with seems to have screwed his courage to the sticking place, and he’s now rightly regarded as one of the country’s most conservative governors.
  • Dan Patrick for Lt. Governor. Patrick has proven to be a very competent, very conservative Lt. Governor who’s had Texas Senate Republicans passing conservative priorities like clockwork, only to see half of them die in the Texas House.
  • I already covered the narrow case for picking Mayes Middleton over the also acceptable Chip Roy.

    • Now some links:

  • Early voting locations for Williamson County.
  • Early voting locations for Travis County.
  • Here’s Texas Scorecard’s Campaign Finance Tracker. The fact that Gina Hinojosa has such a huge lead over Andrew White for the Democratic nomination for governor suggests that primary is already over, which is pretty much how I figured it.
  • NRA PVF ratings for Texas candidates. At least they had the decency not to endorse anyone in TX-23, instead of endorsing incumbent Tony Gonzales over Brandon Herrera…
  • The Agricultural Commissioner’s race is interesting, because Governor Greg Abbott has endorsed challenger Nate Sheets over incumbent Sid Miller, which is pretty rare for a statewide race.

    Gov. Greg Abbott endorsed Nate Sheets for Texas agriculture commissioner in the 2026 GOP primary against incumbent and fellow statewide elected Republican Sid Miller.

    Texans for Greg Abbott campaign manager Kim Snyder described Sheets as “the only candidate in the race who has the integrity to lead the Texas Department of Agriculture,” in a statement to the Texas Bullpen.

    “The current Texas Department of Agriculture commissioner has a history of corruption and, as a state legislator, he previously voted to grant in-state tuition for illegal immigrants,” Snyder said.

    Miller has a long history of public disagreements with Abbott, dating back to 2020 when he joined a lawsuit against the governor and then-Texas Secretary of State Ruth Hughs over the extension of the early voting period during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    In April 2022, Miller condemned the governor’s directive for enhanced vehicle inspections at the border, saying, “You cannot solve a border crisis by creating another crisis at the border. These Level 1 inspections serve as a ‘clog in the drain’ and divert commerce and jobs to more western ports of entry.”

    Their endorsements are split in interesting ways as well, with Brandon Herrera and several U.S. Republican reps endorsing Miller, but Gun Owners of America, Texas Gun Rights, The Kingwood Tea Party, True Texas Project and Texas Eagle Forum. I think I may be leaning toward Sheets at this point, if only because he seems to be emphasizing border security over Miller.

  • If you hadn’t heard, incumbent liberal fossil congressman Lloyd Doggett retired rather than face commie twerp Greg Cesar in the newly redrawn Texas 37th congressional district. Doggett first entered the Texas Senate in 1973…
  • Also retiring: Texas Republican U.S. Congressman Troy Nehls of the 22nd Congressional District. The leading candidate to replace him: His brother Trever Nehls, who’s been endorsed by President Trump. So I’ve got to think that the chances of primary opponent Rebecca Clark are pretty slim.
  • Also retiring: Democratic State Rep. Bobby Guerra of McAllen from Texas House District 41. Tempting to write this off as another Democrat retiring due to Republican inroads into Rio Grande Valley, but the guy is 72.
  • Also retiring: Republican Texas House District 1 incumbent State Rep. Gary VanDeaver. “The East Texas Republican was one of only two Republican House members to vote against school choice legislation championed by Gov. Greg Abbott—the other being former Speaker Dade Phelan, who has also recently announced he won’t be returning.” VanDeaver barely survived a primary challenge in 2024, and Abbott-endorsed opponent Chris Spencer is running again.
  • In the same District 1 Republican primary, it turns out that Paris businessman Josh Bray previously voted for, and donated to, Democrats.
  • There’s a big scrum for newly redrawn Texas U.S. 32nd Congressional District, with no less than nine Republicans running in the primary.

    Nine Republicans are on the primary ballot for the newly redistricted Congressional District 32 that has been held by U.S. Rep. Julie Johnson (D-TX-32) since 2025 and previously held by Colin Allred before his U.S. Senate bid.

    The district map has a portion in Dallas and then stretches out and widens into more eastern regions of the state. It includes portions of Dallas, Collin, and Rockwall counties in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, then extends east to take in parts of Hunt, Rains, Wood, Camp, and Upshur counties.

    Redrawn by the Texas Legislature in 2025, this district flipped from a Democratic-leaning district to a Republican-leaning one. According to The Texan’s Texas Partisan Index, it had a pre-redistricting rating of D-62% and is now rated R-60%.

    The field of nine Republicans vying to fill the seat are listed on the ballot in the following order: Jace Yarbrough, James Ussery, Darrell Day, Paul Bondar, Ryan Binkley, Gordon Heslop, Monty Montanez, Abteen Vaziri, and Aimee Carrasco.

    Yarbrough, who is endorsed by both President Donald Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott, is a U.S. Air Force veteran and constitutional law attorney. He emphasizes his fight as a member of the military against the mandate that he take the COVID-19 vaccine as a demonstration of his courage and willingness to “fight for constitutional freedoms and the America First Agenda in Washington.” He ran for Texas Senate District 30 in 2024, but lost in a runoff to now-state Sen. Brent Hagenbuch (R-Denton).

    Well, I guess the race already has an overwhelming favorite, then. Here are a few tidbits on the other candidates:

    Ussery points out that he is an East Texas native with a longtime career in the oil and gas industry. His campaign promises include protecting Social Security for seniors and fighting to protect the First and Second Amendments.

    Day is a small business owner who says he “understands real-world challenges.” He has previously served as a precinct chair, election judge, and Arlington City Council member. Day has been endorsed by groups such as Moms for Liberty, Collin County Patriots, and Red Wave Texas. He also has a list of community leader endorsements on his website.

    On his website, Bondar introduces himself as a former Division I football player and successful business leader, adding that the issues he cares about are “driven by real life”: secure borders, safe communities, economic opportunity, strong families, and a “government that respects our freedoms instead of controlling our lives.”

    Binkley, who formerly ran for president in 2024, is the pastor of Create Church and is also the CEO of mergers and acquisitions advisor Generational Group. He jumped in the race with a kickoff event in September. He is endorsed by leaders such as the First Liberty Institute’s Kelly Shackelford and Faith and Freedom Coalition founder Ralph Reed, along with other pastors and community leaders.

    Former educator Heslop claims he wants to “Make America Normal Again” by strengthening the middle class and reducing the national debt. He said in a candidate survey that he would focus on government policies to help the “ordinary citizen.”

    Veteran and entrepreneur Montanez announced his candidacy for the seat in June before the maps were redrawn. His priorities include public safety, jobs and the economy, healthcare, and veterans’ affairs.

    Vaziri is a hedge fund manager, a real estate investor, and an attorney, who says his life represents the “American dream.” Born in Iran, Vaziri is a convert to Christianity who “vehemently opposes Sharia law.”

    Carrasco describes herself as a U.S. Marine Corps veteran, a community leader, and a mental health advocate. Her top priorities are securing the border, strengthening the economy, and leading with integrity and compassion.

    • I want to timebox this post to keep it from sprawling all over the place, so I’m going to cut it off here and try to do a separate post on the Comptroller and Railroad Commissioner races.

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    Posted in Democrats, Elections, Republicans, Texas | 3 Comments »

    Democrat Sacrificial Lamb Steps Up To Be Slaughtered By Abbott

    Thursday, October 16th, 2025

    Every four years, the Texas Democratic Party has to offer up a gubernatorial candidate to get slaughtered by the Republican nominee. Beto O’Rourke lost to incumbent Greg Abbott by over 800,000 votes in 2022, and Abbott’s two previous opponents, Lupe Valdez (2018) and Wendy “Abortion Barbie” Davis (2014) didn’t even get that close. Davis was a state senator, and Lupe Valdez a Dallas County sheriff, and now another leftwing female official unknown statewide has decided to step up to the butcher’s block.

    State Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin) is running for governor and not seeking re-election to the Texas House after nearly a decade serving in the Legislature.

    Boilerplate liberal blather snipped.

    She rolled out endorsements from over thirty of her Democratic colleagues, four state senators, and seven congressional members — including U.S. Reps. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX-37), Greg Casar (D-TX-35), Jasmine Crockett (D-TX-30), Veronica Escobar (D-TX-16), Sylvia Garcia (D-TX-29), Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX-34), and Julie Johnson (D-TX-32).

    Quite a collection of the Texas radical left.

    Before Hinojosa launched her bid for the Texas House in 2015, she served as president of the Austin Independent School District Board (AISD) for three years. In a short-lived online feud between the two over ESAs, Abbott referenced Hinojosa’s position, stating, “Can we really trust the former head of the woke Austin school board to give us the facts about our children’s education?” That followed Hinojosa challenging Abbott to “Call me a liar to my face.”

    According to her special session reports, Hinojosa raised a little over $4,366, spent $51,191, and reported $24,235 cash on hand; she pulled in around $50,000 during the two special sessions this summer.

    By comparison, Abbott raised over $20 million, spent over $3 million, and reported over $86 million on cash on hand for the same time period. After two special session fundraising reports, Abbott now likely sits close to $90 million cash on hand.

    So right out of the gate Abbott has her financially outgunned by four orders of magnitude. And unlike O’Rourke, she doesn’t have a cushy national fundraising network and hordes of fawning national mainstream media profiles to fall back on.

    Kim Snyder, Campaign Manager of Texas For Greg Abbott, responded to Hinojosa’s campaign launch to The Texan, stating “Gina Hinojosa has proven that she is out of step with Texans. She sides with the defund-the-police movement, supports men competing in women’s sports, backs harmful child modification procedures, embraces reckless open border policies, and opposes critical bail reform that keeps dangerous criminals behind bars.

    “Time and again, Gina Hinojosa chooses woke, extreme ideologies over the safety and security of Texas families. Texans deserve a Governor who will continue to secure the border, fight for safer communities, and uphold family values — not someone who supports failed, radical policies that hurt hardworking Texas,” Snyder concluded.

    Hinojosa’s HD 49, comprised of a portion of Travis County, is comfortably Democratic with a rating of D-82% per The Texan’s Texas Partisan Index.

    The more in-tune with Travis County’s left-wing social justice base, the more out-of-step with Texas as a whole. Right now her only real opponent in the Democratic primary is Andrew White, who couldn’t beat out non-entity Lupe Valdez in the 2018 race.

    Also: “Prior to becoming a state legislator, Hinojosa worked for the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.” Presumably AFSCME will be tossing some coins into her beggar’s bowl in memory of past service, but I don’t see a whole lot outside of Austin and the usual liberal Texas millionaires and law firms putting good money after bad in what is overwhelmingly likely to be a losing effort.

    In terms of profile, state Senator Davis should be the closest analog to state Representative Hinojosa, except Davis’ abortion antics had already given her a national profile, so she raised a lot of money for her poorly run campaign. (And if you wonder what Davis is up to these days, she’s working for George Soros.)

    The Lupe Valdez campaign is probably a more apt point of comparison. At one point in July of 2018, Abbott had 120 times cash on hand than Valdez had. I would expect Hinojosa to do a better job of fundraising than Valdez…but not that much better.

    And Lupe Valdez lost to Abbott by over a million votes.

    The last time Democrats came even within 500,000 votes of a Republican for Governor was the weird, 4-way 2006 race against Rick Perry by Chris Bell, (then) Carole Keeton Strayhorn, and Kinky Friedman. The last time before that was George W. Bush unseating Ann Richards in 1994.

    This feels an awful lot like the 2012 Texas Senate race, where Democrats managed to coax former state Rep. Paul Sadler into the race to avoid having a complete unknown like Sean Hubbard or Grady Yarbrough lead the ticket. As a reward for stepping up, Sadler lost to Ted Cruz by over a million votes. And Sadler wasn’t nearly as far left as Hinojosa.

    Expect Gina Hinojosa to lose to Greg Abbott by similar margins.

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    Posted in Austin, Democrats, Elections, Social Justice Warriors, Texas, unions | 3 Comments »