Today’s the day! Get out there and vote!
LinkSwarm for November 6, 2012 (Election Day!)
November 6th, 2012Texas Senate Race Update for November 5, 2012
November 5th, 2012And here’s your final Texas Senate Race update for 2012! I’ve been covering this race since Kay Bailey Hutchison decided not to run again on January 13, 2011.
I expect Ted Cruz to beat Paul Sadler handily (and here’s my endorsement of Cruz). Later today I hope to have a prediction up on just how well I expect him to do.
Romney is Talking About Hope and the Future
November 4th, 2012Nick Lampson: “We need greater civility. That’s why I’m going to shove your camera away.”
November 3rd, 2012Obviously Democratic 14th Congressional District candidate (and former congressman) Nick Lampson really doesn’t like being asked how often he voted with Nancy Pelosi in the middle of his lecture on bipartisanship.
I talked about the CD14 race between Lampson and Randy Weber earlier this week.
(Hat tip: David Bellow)
Ohio: Mitt Romney is Drawing Crowds Like U2, Obama is Drawing Crowds Like Whitesnake
November 2nd, 2012Romney draws 30,000 at single rally in Ohio.
(Pic via Brennan Hall (@bren_nan) on Twitter)
Meanwhile, Obama is drawing crowds in Ohio between 2,800 and 4,000. That’s a good crowd…for a Whitesnake concert. It’s pretty piss poor for the President of the United States of America. I guess it’s hard to draw a crowd when you already have the stink of failure on you.
(I would like to apologize in advance to any Whitesnake fans offended by crowd size comparisons to Obama. If you believe limited government, the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy welcomes you whether you’re a hair metal fan, a brony, a hipster, a juggalo, or even a furry (I thought it best not to link anything for that one), as long as you’re voting against Obama!)
Republicans Serious About Winning Third Court of Appeals Ground Game
November 1st, 2012I just got my fourth direct mailer supporting Jeff Rose, Scott Field, David Puryear, and Bob Pemberton for the Third Court of Appeals.
The Third Court of Appeals covers a large swath of central Texas, stretching from Fayette up to Sterling county:
I don’t ever recall so much obvious money and effort being put into a down ballot judicial race before.
The most important race is Field’s attempt to unset the very liberal Diane Henson. Speaking of Field, this is what was on the back of the card he handed me at last week’s Ted Cruz/Tony Dale event:
I think that’s pretty much all you can ask for in a judicial philosophy.
Texas vs. California: Halloween 2012 Edition
October 31st, 2012Six days to the election, and I’ve spent most of the night handing out candy. Six days until we choose to follow the successful Texas Red State path of low taxes and limited government, or the failing Blue State California path of bankruptcy and bigger government.
LinkSwarm for October 30, 2012
October 30th, 2012I was going to have an insightful, data-filed post on the Texas 23rd Congressional district race, but then I realized that the Los Angeles Times data I was relying on flipped at least one bit of information (NRA-ILA is doing independent expenditures against Pete Gallego, not against Rep. Francisco “Quico” Canseco), which means I can’t trust the rest. Super executive summary: Canseco has a huge cash on-hand advantage, $785,623 to $23,250, but assuming the other LA Times numbers are right, the independent expenditure race is a lot closer to even.
Now on to a LinkSwarm a week before the election:
Tough Race to Replace Ron Paul in U.S. 14th Congressional District
October 29th, 2012When I looked over the new redistricting numbers, the Texas U.S. Congressional seat that leapt out at me as the most competitive was Rep Francisco “Quico” Canseco’s CD23, a swing seat which got minimal Republican reinforcement during redistricting. But right now I’m feeling better about that one. (Hopefully more on that topic in the next day or two.)
Right now the seat that worries me most is CD 14, Ron Paul’s old seat, where the Democrats are making a hard run to snag an upset in what looks to be a very down year for them both statewide and nationally.
Going off of Obama’s 2008 vote, the district got 9% less Republican in redistricting. The old 14th went 66% for McCain, the new one only 57%. That’s still a considerable advantage, but not necessarily an insurmountable one.
Moreover, in Nicholas Valentino “Nick” Lampson of Beaumont, the Democratic party has actually found a reasonably popular local politician with qualifying experience in Congress (including one term in Tom DeLay’s old seat). National Democrats have had this seat painted as a takeover target all year. Lampson’s FEC report includes a number of Texas lawyers and some out-of-state juice, including ACTBLUE, the Professional Airways Specialists PAC, and the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers Campaign Assistance Fund. (And who knows how much soft money will be spent on behalf of Lampson by outside groups this cycle?) The Lampson campaign was also one of two TX CD campaigns that flew in Bill Clinton for a campaign appearance. An internal Lampson poll released in August showed a very close race (usual internal poll caveats apply).
The Republican nominee, Randy Weber, is a two-term State Rep. Unlike Lampson, Weber had a crowded primary and a runoff to contend with, which ate up significant funds.
That Roll Call piece says that Lampson has $422,000 in cash on hand, while Weber only had $55,000. However, looking at the actual FEC numbers, updated in October 17 filings, it doesn’t seem quite so bad, with Lampson having $151,218 cash on hand compared to Weber’s $83,617.
Weber has serious (if largely expected) Republican endorsements, including Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Greg Abbott and Nolan Ryan. Ted Cruz had a joint campaign appearance with Weber today.
If you’re looking for a Texas race where your last minute donation can have the most effect, the Randy Weber campaign is a good choice.