National Journal updates the state of play in the House races that still haven’t been decided yet.
Short version:
California 11: Democratic incumbent Jerry McNerney holds a 628-vote lead over Republican David Harmer, but not all ballots from Republican-leaning locales have been counted yet.
California 20 Republican Andy Vidak leads Democratic incumbent Jim Costa by a mere 145 votes.
Illinois 8: Republican Joe Walsh leads Democratic incumbent Melissa Bean, which should hold up unless Cook County cooks up some fraud (and when has that ever happened?).
Kentucky 6: Democratic incumbent Ben Chandler leads Republican Andy Barr by 649 votes, recanvass starts next week
New York 1: Republican Randy Altschuler leads Democratic incumbent Tim Bishop by either 392 votes or 383 votes.
New York’s 25: Republican Ann Marie Buerkle leads Democratic incumbent Dan Maffei by 659 votes, but there are still ballots to be counted.
Texas 27: Republican Blake Farenthold leads Democratic incumbent Solomon Ortiz by 792 votes, with only 736 overseas and provisional ballots left to count. Ortiz wants a manual recount.
Liberal coach plays all players, good or bad, equal minutes, says having fun more important than winning. Conservative coach plays best players, makes winning the top priority. Guess which one they enjoy playing for more?
Democrats must grasp that their defeats were not about deficient personalities or insufficient communication, but about their philosophy and substance. Roughly two out of three voters agreed with the statements that President Obama “has failed to deliver hope and change” and that in the midst of an economic crisis, Democrats “had their priorities wrong.” The post-midterm realities are simple: If the Republicans don’t deliver on their promises, they’re finished. If the Democrats continue doing what they’re doing, they’re finished.
Will Democrats get the message? Probably not, since some defeated Democrats are saying they lost because they just weren’t liberal enough, like defeated Dem congressman Alan “Crazy Pills” Grayson.
Now that the rush of the election is over, I’ve been taking it (relatively) easy for the past few days. Expect more post-election analysis next week. We’re also still waiting to hear back on not only those eleven House races where recounts are still ongoing, but there’s a twelfth race, between Democratic incumbent Tim Bishop and Republican challenger Randy Altschuler for New York’s First District, that is not only up in the air due to 3,500 ballots wrongly attributed to Bishop, but which Altschuler now leads (though several thousand absentee, etc. ballots remain to be counted). Once that is done I can do a post-election analysis of my predictions. (Pending those outcomes, it looks like I did pretty well for my House prediction, but not as good on the Senate.)
Just because the U.S. has an election doesn’t mean Islamic fundamentalists rest. So here’s a roundup of Islamic- and Jihad-related news from around the world.
Jim Gegharty speaks to Obi Wan: “The people tried trusting Democratic claims that they would govern as moderates. That didn’t work out, and that trust won’t be back any time soon”
Republicans increased their share of trifectas (i.e., where they control both state congressional chambers and the Governorship) from 8 to 20, while the Democratic Party’s trifectas declined from 16 to 9. That means Republican’s big win will become even bigger next year for redistricting.
The GOP also picked up state legislative chambers in New Hampshire, Maine, Wisconsin and Minnesota.
The quantity of Republican senators elected yesterday was lacking, but the quality of the ones getting in is impressive, especially considering who they replaced.
I’m not a big Ann Coulter fan, but this debunking of pre-election myths has some nice bits of snark: “Republican landslides are apparently inevitable whenever Democrats try to turn our health care over to the Department of Motor Vehicles.” “Even Lindsey Graham is going to start voting with the Republicans!”
Another Daily Kos writer employees the calm, dispassionate reason for which that site is known far and wide: “Screw you, whitey!”
Today’s winner of the Least Psychic Pundit Award: Stuart Rothenberg: “There are no signs of a dramatic rebound for the party, and the chance of Republicans winning control of either chamber in the 2010 midterm elections is zero. Not ‘close to zero.’ Not ‘slight’ or ‘small.’ Zero.”
Since I still haven’t found that complete list, here’s Jim Geraghty saying that it’s at least 60, and could be as high as 71. Right now Republicans are leading in five of those races, including Blake Farenthold leading Solomon Ortiz.
I wanted to do a wrap-up of all House races, including the complete number of flips, except I can’t, as I can’t find a single list anywhere online. I know there are a handful of races that are still too close to call. But I don’t think what I want is too much to ask of one of the major news organizations: A list/table of all House races, with both major candidates listed, votes for each, and a % of votes, all on one page (and not, or not just, an interactive map). (I wouldn’t mind additional columns for the third party candidates, but its not a requirement.)
The most complete list of flips I’ve found is, ironically enough, from the other side from Firedog Lake. She counts 62 Democrat to Republican flips, two Republican to Democrat flips (Cao in LA 2 and Castle’s Delaware seat), eight undecided-but-leaning-Republican flips, and one more likely Democratic flip (HI 01). Which means the Republican flip total would be…67 seats.
One of the most satisfying results of last night’s election was just how many of Bart Stupak’s block of ObamaCare flippers went down in flames.
If you remember back to the ObamaCare debates, Stupak’s bloc of “Pro-Life Democrats” was never, ever, ever, ever going to vote for a bill that included government funding of abortions. That is, right up until they did.
As shown below, on November 2, the clear majority of them paid the price for betraying their principles as well as their constituents. Unless otherwise noted, the election margins below are taken from this CBS table. Since WordPress doesn’t let me set font colors to red, I’ve marked GOP pickups in bold.
Rep. Jerry Costello of Illinois’ 12th district defeated Republican Teri Newman
Rep. Joseph Donnelly of Indiana’ 2nd district edged Republican Jackie Walorski by less than 3,000 votes.
Rep. Brad Ellsworth left his Indiana’s 8th Congressional seat for an unsuccessful run for the Senate. Republican Larry Bucshon flipped the seat by defeating Trent Van Haaften by almost 40,000 votes.
Rep. Bart Stupak retired from Michigan’s 1st congressional district when it became apparent his ObamaCare betrayal doomed his electoral chances. Republican Dan Benishek flipped the seat by defeating Gary McDowell by 25,000 votes.
Rep. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio’s 9th district beat James Iott (AKA Nazi Costume Guy) by a wide margin.
Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper of Pennsylvania’s 3rd district lost to Republican Mike Kelly by over 20,000 votes.
Rep. Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania’s 11th district lost to Lou Barletta by over 15,000 votes.
Rep. Solomon Ortiz of Texas’ 27th district loses to Republican Blake Farenthold by less than 1,000 votes.
That’s eight out of eleven Stupak bloc flippers whose seats are now in the hands of the GOP. And of those eleven races, I correctly picked ten, missing only Donnelly’s narrow victory in Indiana’s second district (which I originally had down as a longshot).
A few lessons:
Voters hate ObamaCare.
They hate congressmen who break promises. (Republicans should take special note of this one anytime they contemplate letting a GOP-controlled congress slip back to the old free-spending ways of the Bush43 years.)
They hate Blue Dog Democrats who vote like liberals when the really important issues are on the line.
Voters may be wising up to the fact that it doesn’t matter how much a Democrat swears up and down how Pro-Life, fiscally conservative, pro-gun, etc. they are; when push comes to shove, they’ll always cave in and vote with their liberal leadership.
Oh yes, I’m sure that running Democrats ideologically closer to Nancy Pelosi than Dan Boren in places like Indiana, Pennsylvania and Ohio is a great way to pick up seats. I encourage you to get started on that right away.
Live-blogging the election, most recent comments on top.
12:12 AM: Prediction for tomorr- er, today: Democrats complaining non-stop about how voters are still too stupid to appreciate how awesome they are.
12:07 PM: A few got away, but this was a very successful night for Republicans. If you had predicted the magnitude of Republican victory any time in 2009, pundits would have laughed at you. Remember, in October of 2008, Daily Kos said ” At this pace, we’re headed toward a 65-70-seat Democratic majority in the Senate by the end of 2010.” The magnitude of the Tea Party turnaround in Republican fortunes is one of the most astonishing political feats of our lifetimes.
12:00 AM: Some happy thoughts to leave you with:
Republican Steve Pearce beats incumbent Democrat Harry Teague in NM 2, which RCP had as a leans Dem seat.
Republican Scott Tipton beat incumbent Democrat John Salazar in CO 3
Republican Cory Gardner beat incumbent Democrat Betsy Markey in CO 4
Just about every office in Wisconsin that could reasonably have a chance to flip Republican did. How do you like your shiny new red state, WisCon?
11:57 PM: At Midnight all the agents…have to stop blogging and go to bed. I’ll have some more analysis scattered over the next few days.
10:54 PM: Fox news calls CA for Boxer. No surprise.
11:48 PM: Murray has a small lead in Washington, but there are a lot of votes still outstanding.
11:44 PM: Pennsylvania Senate race called for Toomey. Don’t let Harry Reid’s narrow escape keep you from realizing what a huge improvement Toomey is over Arlen Specter. This is a big plus for Pennsylvanians, Republicans, and Americans, and even Democrats (who won’t have Specter as their problem any more come January).
11:40 PM: Legal pot defeated in California. I would have supported this were I living in California, as I do not think that regulating it is a legitimate concern of the federal government, and the War on Drugs has been an astoundingly expensive failure. But if legal pot can’t win in California, then where can it win?
11:39 PM: NV called for Reid. Dang.
11:38 PM: IL Senate race called for Kirk.
11:37 PM: Blog went down for a while, but Blue Host brought it back up more quickly than I expected.
11:03 PM: NBC: “The Tea Party has arrived in Washington, DC. The House did everything the Obama White House asked them to, and they paid the price.”
10:59 PM: Republicans are over-performing expectations of a week ago, but under-performing those of a day or two ago (including mine). It’s shaping up to be a bit worse for Democrats than 1994, which is bad enough (for them), but short of the (deep, scary voice) DEMOGEDDDON some were predicting.
10:55 PM: Senate Race quick updates:
Kirk slightly ahead in IL. (“KHAAAANNNNN!”)
Toomey still holding the lead in PA, with not many districts outstanding
Rossi/Murray tied in WA; it’s flipped back and forth
10:46 PM: I’m still amazed the Democrats couldn’t find anyone to run against John Thune in South Dakota. It makes South Carolina Democrat’s choice of Alvin Greene seem slightly less pathetic. At least he showed up.
10:40 PM: TX23 called for Doggett over Campbell, but 52% is a lot closer that most people expected.
9:58 PM: Toomey slips into the lead over Sleestak Sestak. Setak had held the lead virtually all night. Over in the opposition camp, the Daily Kossacks are despondent, saying there are only heavily Republican counties left.
9:52 PM: “Captain’s Log…I’m tired!” I’ve been staring at glowing rectangles for too long. I’m going to take a break to walk my dog in a few minutes.
9:49 PM: ABC refusing to call Florida or Ohio Governor’s races for the leading Republicans. I think they’re whistling pass the graveyard.
9:43 PM: This was announced earlier, but Barney Frank survives, alas. I’m sure he’s already dreaming of new ways to inject taxpayer money into the housing market.
9:41 PM: Republican Nikki Haley takes South Carolina Governor’s race.
9:40 PM: Wisconsin Senate seat called for Ron Johnson over Russ Feingold. GOP pickup.
9:38 PM: Sadly, Cao is going down in LA 2. Still, it’s an overwhelmingly Democrat seat that only went Republican in 2008 due to corruption on the part of William “cold 90 grand” Jefferson.
9:36 PM: Dana Loesch is on ABC. She looks pretty hot. (Note: This was the point in the evening when my internal censor decided to pack up and go on vacation.)
9:31: Ha! Barletta over Kanjorski. Also, “Red Barchetta” over “The Camera Eye.”
9:25 PM: Fox 7 interviewing Larry Gonzalez. He looks excited, articulate, and sweaty. “Oh my gosh.” :-)
9:23 PM: Man, that CBS theme music of repeating flute riffs is annoying. Like a pastiche of Philip Glass written by someone who hates Philip Glass.
9:22 PM: Katie Coric: “Some think Haley Barbour is a future GOP Presidential candidate.” Yeah, some people on a very poor grade of crack…
9:21 PM: PA Senate still too close to call. IL Senate still too close to call. WI too close to call. CO too close to call. NV too close to call. Still, I have the distinct feeling Republicans won’t take the Senate.
9:18 PM: ABC has finally decided to grace us with election news. Ed Rendell is spinning madly that Democrats aren’t losing bad as some people expected.
9:14 PM: Fox 7 has Texas congressmen Chet Edwards, Solomon Ortiz and Ciro Rodriguez all losing. As well as 20 Democrat state House incumbents going down.
9:11 PM: Hmmm. CBS has Republican Thomas Reed beating Matthew Zeller in NY29, despite Zeller’s total currently being higher than Reed.
9:07 PM: Flores winning big over Chet Edwards for TX-17.
9:02 PM: More local Texas updates from KEYE: Doggett back up over Campbell, but only by 5,000 votes. Larry Gonzalez maintaining 59-39% lead over Moldanado.
9:00: Democrat Bill White concedes in Texas.
8:55 PM: Republican Dennis Ross over Dem Lori Edwards in FL 12. (GOP hold.)
8:53 PM: Palin: “Delaware is a deep blue state. Exit polls show Castle would have lost on Delaware the same way O’Donnell did. The Tea Party didn’t cost the GOP that race.”
8:51: Fox predicts GOP picks up PA Governorship.
8:51: Palin now slamming the “lamestream” media.
8:50: Palin just admitted she might run for President.
8:49: Fox: “Is Marco Rubio a possible Vice Presidential candidate?” Palin: “He’s a possible Presidential candidate.”
8:47 PM: Palin says the Tea Party movement is libertarian in character. “They’re not going to Washington to raise taxes.”
8:45 PM: Sarah Palin being interviewed on Fox right now. Like Bush, I think it’s her accent that’s the source of the American left’s instant, irrational rage against her.
8:45 PM: Republican Rigell over Nye in VA02.
8:40 PM: RCP has Republicans picking up North Dakota Senate seat (as expected).
8:37: PA, NV senate races still too close to call.
8:33 PM: CBS: Republican Steve Southerland over incumbent Dem Allen Boyd in FL 02.
8:23 PM: KVUE: Larry Gonzales over Moldanado in early voting for the Texas House District 52 race!
8:23PM: KVUE: Texas news starts coming in: Perry kicking White 59% to 39%. Whoa! Campbell up over Doggett??? (only 5% in, though)
8:16 PM: NBC saying Ohio’s Governor’s race is closer than [insert cornpone Dan Rather saying here]
8:13 PM: Fox predicting: 239 Republicans in the House, 196 Democrats.
8:12 PM: Fox News predicts Republican takeover of the House. Booyah! Take that Nancy Pelosi! But pretty much everyone to the right of Daily Kos predicted that.
8:09 PM: Republican Charles Fleischmann holds on to Zach Wamp’s seat. I just like typing “Zach Wamp.” ZACH WAMP!
8:08 PM: Tom Brokaw just called the American electorate a “wild bull.”
8:05: Foxnews.com has Republican jeff Duncan picking up Gresham Barrett’s SC 03 seat.
8:01 PM: Nice of you to join us, Fox News.
8:00 PM: Republican Lou Barletta edging Democrat Paul Kanjorski in PA-11, but the lead is small and only a small number of districts have reported.
7:55 PM: Republican Young over Democrat Hill in IN9, according to RCP Donnelly/Walorski still too close to call.
7:41 PM: As a reporter, getting caught conspiring against a Republican candidate gets you: A.) A Pulitzer, B.) A job with MSNBC, or C.) A pink slip. (Of course, they might still get the MSNBC jobs…)
7:39 PM: “Election Alert: Fox News Projects Republican John Boozman Defeats Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas.” Almost as shocking as a Mike Tyson victory over Woody Allen.
7:31 PM: As part of their non-election, ever-so-important “Trapped in an Elevator” coverage, PBS is showing footage of the World Trade Center collapse. I’m sure Democrats are calling up PBS execs. “You’re not helping!”
7:27 PM: They’re also calling IN 08 for Republican Buschon.
7:25: CBS has Sandra Adams beating Suzanne Kosmas 60% to 40% in FL 24. Kosmas was an ObamaCare flipper, though not one of the Stupak group.
7:15 PM: Pause for pizza.
7:13: Drudge: REPUBLICANS WIN SENATE SEATS: AL, FL, GA, IN, OH, KY, MO, NH, SC…
DEMS WIN: CT, DE, MD…
TOO CLOSE TO CALL: PA, IL…
No real surprises there…
7:09: ABC: Bucshon over Van Haaften 55% to 39% for IN 06, but Donnelly up over Walorski 49% to 46% with 56% reporting.
7:06 PM: “Fox News Projects GOP Marco Rubio Wins Fla.”
Hey, Charlie Crist:
7:02 PM: Well, thank God for PBS and their focus on public-minded–CLICK. “Trapped in an Elevator.” Your tax dollars at work.
7:00 PM: Glee, Fox? Dancing with the Stars, ABC? On election night? Thanks for NOTHING!
6:58 PM: Jackie Walorski up over Stupak-bloc flipper Joe Donnelly 53% to 42% with 19% of the vote in.
6:51 PM: Foxnew.com has Frank Guinta up over incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter in NH1 by 12,585 to 10,348. If anyone had Shea-Porter on their endangered list, I must have missed it.
6:47 PM: Drudge predicting a 50 seat GOP pickup in the House.
6:44: PBS has Robert Hurt up over Dem Golden Boy Tom Perriello by 55%, in Virginia, despite national Dems pouring millions into the race. But the returns may not be representative of the district as a whole.
6:23 PM: Moving the TV into the office. Old 36″ tube. Weighs approx. 3 metric tons.
6:13 PM: Drudge exit polls via Instapundit:
Tea for Three: Coates, Paul, DeMint Win Senate Seats…
EXIT POLLS:
IL 49-43 Kirk [R]… NV TIED…
Arkansas: Boozman (R) over Lincoln (D)
California: Boxer [D] over Fiorina [R]
Florida: Rubio [R] over Crist [I], Meek [D]
Ohio: Portman (R) over Fisher (D)
North Dakota: Hoeven (R) over Potter (D)
Wisconsin: Johnson (R) over Feingold (D)
6:11 PM: Whoa, that was quick. ABC, Fox, and NBC are already calling the Senate races for Rand Paul in Kentucky and Dan Coats in Indiana.
6:07 PM: The Fark election thread, for one of the few venues on the Internet where both left and right gather to drink heavily and troll each other.
6:00 PM: Greetings Instapundit readers! Damn he’s fast. Within minutes of me dropping him an email the link was up. It’s like that Warner Brothers cartoon when the wolf writes off for an anti-smoking kit, and when he goes out to mail the letter the postman drive out, snatches the letter from his hand, hands him the kit and drives off…
