I’ve covered Peter Zeihan videos on China’s crashing demographics before. We already knew China was “the fastest aging society in human history, with the largest sex imbalance in human history.” Now he’s dug into new some new data.
It’s much worse than he thought.
“We’ve gotten some new data out of the Chinese that has made it way to the U.N, and so the updates have allowed us to update our assessment, and oh my God, it’s bad.”
“Here is the new data, and as you can see, the number of children who are under age 5 has just collapsed, and they’re now roughly twice as many that are age 15 as age 5.”
“What happened back in 2017, well before Covid, is that we had a sudden collapse in the birth rate, roughly 40% over the next five years among the Chinese, the ethnic Han population, and more than 50 percent among a lot of the minorities. And that is before Covid, which saw anecdotally the birth rate drops considerably more.”
“We’re never going to get good data on death rate, or at least not anytime soon, because the Chinese, when they did the reopening, just stopped collecting the data on deaths and Covid and everything because they didn’t want the world to know how many Chinese died, so they don’t know.”
And if you look at the data from the Shanghai Academy of Science, it’s even worse than the official state numbers.
“China aged past the point of demographic no return over 20 years, ago and it wasn’t just this year that India became the world’s most populous country, that probably happened roughly a decade ago. And it wasn’t in 2018 that the average Chinese aged past the average American, that was probably roughly in 2007 or 2008.”
“This is not a country that is in demographic decay, this is a country that is in the advanced stages of demographic collapse. And this is going to be the final decade that China can exist as a modern industrialized nation state, because it simply isn’t going to have the people to even try.”
“Labor costs you’re having now or as low as they’re ever going to be. Consumption is as high as it’s ever going to be.”
“So even before you consider the political complications or issues with operating environment or energy access or geopolitical risk or regulational risk, the numbers just aren’t there anymore so you have to ask yourself why you’re still there.”
Add to that the fact that China economy is probably overstated by 60%, and it looks like China’s brief days in the sun are already over.
In Friday’s LinkSwarm, I had a link that asked if Portland was finally sobering up.
Well, for a lot of people and businesses, it’s too late. Such as Kevin Howard, for whom the City of Portland refused to do anything about the homeless people breaking into his property and trashing the place.
And who then fined him because the place was trashed.
“This property was listed in January of 2021 for $795,000. Yesterday we sold it for $412,000,” said Howard.
A significant loss, but Howard says he had nothing left in the tank. The tiny piece of property off Southeast Powell Boulevard, a former pizza parlor, has been a nightmare for the past three years.
“The supposed homeless came in and kicked in the door, the front door, and lived in it,” said Howard. “And I waited until they came out, and I had to board it up.”
But Howard says that didn’t do much. They just broke in again and again, living inside and outside, even in his dumpster enclosure which they eventually set on fire. Howard says he got nowhere when he called the police.
“I said, ‘Well, what does a homeowner do? What does a property owner do?’ and they said, ‘Call Central City Concern,'” said Howard. “I said “What will they do?’ and they said, ‘Well, they’ll probably come out and give them a cup of coffee and some hot soup.'”
Howard looked into hiring a security guard, but that was too expensive at roughly $15,000 a month. So, he decided to get a fence, but the wait was four months.
“I said, ‘Why?’ and they said, ‘Because homeowners like mad are fencing their property to keep the, you know, the drug addicts and the homeless out,'” said Howard.
So, the trash piled up, and Howard tried to keep up, but it wasn’t enough. Last summer, the city hit him with a nuisance fine of nearly $540.
Howard paid the fine.
A month later, he got an even bigger bill, the original amount plus a penalty. The city told him they had lost his check. So, he paid the bill again, plus the extra $100.
“Two weeks later, they sent me another bill for 639 dollars and 71 cents,” said Howard. “I called them up, and they said, “Well, this might be a duplicate bill, but we’ve already put a lien on your property.”
“I just remember the phrase ‘The City That Works.’ The city that jerks, I mean, how can you be this dysfunctional?”
Easy. You let Social Justice Warriors take over your city.
I was going to do a post rounding up the sudden spat of absolutely unhinged attacks on Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who has had the unmitigated gall to actually primary Slow Joe Biden. Only to find out that Tucker Carlson had already done it for me.
Some takeaways:
There’s never been a candidate for president the media hated more than Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. You thought that title belonged to Donald Trump. Of course it must! But go check the coverage. Trump got a gentle scalp massage by comparison when he announced. When Trump rolled out his presidential campaign in 2015, the New York Times waited until the 17th paragraph of the story to attack him. “But as well known as he is,” the paper said at the time, “Trump is also widely disliked.” Then they cited a poll to back it up. That was the attack on Trump. Eight years later, the Times attacked Bobby Kennedy in the very first sentence of the story. Quote, “Robert F Kennedy, Jr.” the paper declared, “announced a presidential campaign on Wednesday built on relitigating covid-19 shutdowns and shaking Americans faith in science.”
“You’d think Bobby Kennedy just declared war on the enlightenment!”
“NPR devoted an entire segment to savaging Kennedy, not just as a candidate, but as a human being. NPR described him as someone who, for his own perverse reasons, has made, quote, debunked and false and misleading claims that undermine trust in vaccines, and who in his spare time provides moral support to crazed extremists.”
“People magazine didn’t even bother to report a single word of anything Kennedy said at his announcement, and instead wrote an entire story about how his relatives hate him.” Having the entire Kennedy clan hate him would only increase my (admittedly low) estimation of him.
When did the Democratic Media Complex start hating him? July of 2005. “That’s the moment that Kennedy published a magazine article suggesting there might be a link between the rise in diagnosed autism cases and the ever-expending schedule of mandatory childhood vaccines.”
“The Pharma Lobby rolled out the most ferocious public relations campaign in memory and both [Rolling Stone and Salon] swiftly caved. Both pulled the story, and then disavowed it groveling as they did.” Both of those outlets were already on shaky ground, though neither was as bad as they become later.
No one in the national media bothered to explain why autism diagnoses had skyrocketed. If it wasn’t the vaccines, and maybe it wasn’t, then what was it? To this day there has not been a convincing explanation. Instead, reporters just attacked Bobby Kennedy. They’ve called him a lunatic and a Nazi. Instagram shut down his account YouTube just last week pulled down a perfectly reasonable interview he did with Jordan Peterson.
Speaking of which, here RFK Jr. explains to Jordan Petersen how he thinks ObamaCare got the Democratic Party in bed with Big Pharma.
I’ve omitted a lot of Carlson providing example after example of various Democratic Media Complex personalities viciously attacking Kennedy.
I’m no fan of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. His a lefty scumbag on many (perhaps most) issues, has more than a whiff of fringe lunacy about him, and (through no fault of his own) I find him hard to listen to, due to his spasmodic dysphonia. (Though obviously he’s much more coherent and articulate than Biden. As is the average third-grader.) And I think he’s more wrong than right on the vaccine-autism link.
Still, the degree to which the Democratic Media Complex has thrown away even the merest pretense of dispassion about him due to his threat to either a Biden second term or the wishes of Big Pharma (to the extent those two can be disentangled) makes me more inclined to listen to him, and more readily defend his right to speak in the public space. The DNC seems hellbent on presenting any fair challenge to Biden in the Democratic primary, which makes me very curious about just what they’re so scared of…
he owner of the Wagner private military contractor made his most direct challenge to the Kremlin yet on Friday, calling for an armed rebellion aimed at ousting Russia’s defense minister. The security services reacted immediately by calling for the arrest of Yevgeny Prigozhin.
In a sign of how seriously the Kremlin was taking the threat, security was heightened in Moscow and in Rostov-on-Don, which is home to the Russian military headquarters for the southern region and also oversees the fighting in Ukraine.
While the outcome of the confrontation was still unclear, it appeared likely to further hinder Moscow’s war effort as Kyiv’s forces were probing Russian defenses in the initial stages of a counteroffensive.
Prigozhin claimed early Saturday that his forces had crossed into Russia from Ukraine and had reached Rostov, saying they faced no resistance from young conscripts at checkpoints and that his forces “aren’t fighting against children.”
“But we will destroy anyone who stands in our way,” he said in one of a series of angry video and audio recordings posted on social media beginning late Friday. “We are moving forward and will go until the end.”
He claimed that the chief of the General Staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, scrambled warplanes to strike Wagner’s convoys, which were driving alongside ordinary vehicles. Prigozhin also said his forces shot down a Russian military helicopter that fired on a civilian convoy, but there was no independent confirmation.
And despite Prigozhin’s statements that Wagner convoys had entered Rostov-on-Don, there was no confirmation of that yet on Russian social networks. Videos showed heavy trucks blocking highways leading to the city, long convoys of National Guard trucks were seen on a road outside Rostov-on-Don and armored vehicles were roaming the streets.
Prigozhin said Wagner field camps in Ukraine were struck by rockets, helicopter gunships and artillery fire on orders from Gerasimov following a meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, at which they decided to destroy Wagner.
Seems insane on the surface, but people are bandying about the idea that 97% of the Russian army is invested in Ukraine.
"The Head of General Staff is not calming down: a mistake of any African dictator is to deal air strikes at civilian areas. Right now in the air are two planes numbered 523 and 546 that are trying now to deal these strikes.
Update 3: Random non-coup observation: Reporting from Ukraine hasn’t updated in two days. I don’t treat that guy as gospel, but I don’t think he’s missed a posting day since shortly after the war began.
Right-to-repair advocate, former New Yorker and current Texan Louis Rossmann did a video (and then a follow up) on a man whose Amazon smart home devices were all locked out of functioning after an Amazon delivery driver falsely accused him of having a “racist doorbell.” (The followup video covers his access being restored.) Rossmann noted that this was a good reason to never have “smart” devices in your home that third parties (like Amazon) can turn off at will.
Well, guess what? Amazon just disabled Rossmann’s 7+ year affiliate account over bogus reasons.
This is a crappy and petty move, Amazon, and only underscores why no one should entrust you with control over their “smart” devices.
As you may recall, Biden owed a whopping $1.2 million tax liability for 2017 and 2018, but despite multiple warnings he was flouting the law, Biden didn’t pay back the tax bill until 2021, well after the Justice Department and IRS opened investigations into President Joe Biden’s son. Prosecutors are reportedly set to recommend probation as punishment, not jail time.
Of course, this blatant display of a two-tired justice system (one for Democratic Party Royalty and their rich backers, another for everyone else) is the point.
Under Justice Department policy, even with a plea agreement, the government is supposed to seek a plea to the “most serious,” readily provable “offense that is consistent with the nature and full extent of the defendant’s conduct.” Hunter Biden committed tax offenses that could have been charged as evasion, which is punishable by up to five years’ imprisonment for each count. Furthermore, he made a false statement that enabled him to obtain a firearm; that’s a ten-year felony under legislation pushed through by then-senator Joe Biden to show how very serious Democrats are about gun crime.
Biden apologists have tried to minimize that transaction as a “lie and try” case, which they say is often not prosecuted. But such non-prosecution (though it shouldn’t happen) occurs because of what you’d infer from the “try” part — i.e., the liar got caught and failed to obtain the gun. Hunter’s case, to the contrary, is a lie and succeed case. He got the gun. What’s more, he was then seen playing with it while cavorting with an “escort” (see the New York Post’s pictorial, if you’ve got the stomach for it). Shortly afterwards, he and his then-paramour — Hallie Biden, the widow of his older brother — managed to lose the gun near a school (it was later found by someone else).
Those are the kinds of gun cases that get charged by the Justice Department even if the suspect hasn’t, in addition, committed tax felonies by dodging taxes on the millions of dollars he was paid, apparently for being named Biden. Yet after refusing for years to appoint a special counsel despite the five-alarm conflict of interest attendant to investigating the president’s son ( . . . and family . . . and the president himself), the Biden Justice Department is permitting Hunter Biden to dispose of the case with misdemeanor tax charges that will allow for a probation sentence, and diversion — essentially, no prosecution — on the gun felony that would result in imprisonment for most Americans who engaged in similar conduct.
Here’s Tucker Carlson, contrasting how different Biden’s treatment was from Biden’s political enemies.
Ep. 5 As in most of the developing world, it's safer to be the president's son than his opponent. pic.twitter.com/AtRRaxYSjs
It looks like someone took a lawnmower chassis and replaced the mower blade and engine with a mine-laying servo.
#Ukraine: Judging by the video, the main idea is that this UGV "RATEL" is used as a mobile warhead that carries two TM-62 AT mines and whose goal is to be activated under a vehicle or tank. In the video, UGV was successfully tested on an old van. #UkraineRussiaWar️#Russiapic.twitter.com/JRqtabl4nj
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Warfare (@WeaponsWarfare) April 29, 2023
RATEL is evidently the name of the device, and not connected to the South African Ratel IFV (though it wouldn’t shock me to see those show up in Ukrainian inventories, despite being fairly long in the tooth).
I first saw this mentioned in a Reporting from Ukraine video:
Not a whole lot of information there, either, but he did say “Recent combat footage shows that Ukrainians finally started using mine-laying drones in large numbers. Even though such drones cannot be driven far behind the front lines, they are very effective at mining the roads that go along the front line, especially those that connect Russian positions between the tree lines.”
There’s very little information available on this device online, but speculation on previous prototypes suggested they were trying to lay mines under enemy vehicles, which makes no sense. The Reporting from Ukraine description of them as an area denial weapon makes much more sense.
We think of mines as buried items, but laying them atop roads can take out unwary or distracted drivers, or cause them the to stop to clear the mines (a risky proposition, since they could be designed to explode at any removal attempt, and which subjects stopped targets to possible hostile fire), or to divert around into areas that may have buried mines (and we’ve seen plenty of video from Ukraine of Russian vehicles hitting mines buried to the side while trying to avoid some obstacle).
Here’s something informational for Sunday, Nicholas Moran explaining exactly how a modern 120mm (AKA 120×570mm NATO, the type used by the M1A2 Abrams and the German Leopard 2) APFSDS round works.
He has a dummy blue round to demonstrate the features. “All the projectiles are color coded. Explosive, for example, would be green with yellow lettering.” APFSDS rounds are black.
“The aft cap is the one piece which is left behind after a modern round is fired, and this takes up a lot less room than a traditional shell casing rattling around inside the tank once you fire it.”
A long primer rod runs up the middle for more even propellent burning.
“A modern tank does have a firing pin. It’s electrically fired, but it has a firing pin. It looks just like a firing pin you’d expect from a rifle, except it’s about yay long…Electricity goes through the firing pin, sets off the primer, which sets off the propellant, which gives you the big boom.”
There are even emergency hand crank firing systems with dynamos to use if the electrical system goes down.
“The rest of the shell casing is made of a form of cellulose, and it is burned up in the explosion. So the aft cap is sufficient to seal the breach instead of requiring the entire casing to expand as you you’d find on a traditional round.”
“The catch is that this is simply not as robust as a metal shell.” Which is why the loader has to inspect rounds for scratches or bulges to the water-resistant coating. That could cause the round to break apart or misfire. “This is a bad thing.”
Which is why tank crews practice misfire drills to ensure safe handling of rounds so they don’t spread loose propellant all over the tank’s interior.
“The kinetic energy penetrator is itself a dart… it’s got fins at the back to keep the pointy end forwards, and it is kept centered as it goes down the tube by these sabot petals.”
“Modern sabots seem to have settled on three of these petals per projectile. Once the projectile has left the muzzle, the air is caught by the petals and they are peeled away.”
The discarded petals are a danger. “This is why sabot rounds such as APFSDS or M-PT should not be fired over the heads of friendly infantry.”
“The dart goes that way, hits metal, and basically punches through, taking little bits of metal inside with them. This is called a spall. These little fragments metal are extremely unhealthy to anyone or anything inside the vehicle which it hits.”
“However, if the armor is too thin to produce spalling, you get what is known as over-penetration. So you make a dart-sized hole on one side of the vehicle, a dart-sized hole on the far side of the vehicle, and dart sized holes on anything in-between, and outside of brown pants for the crewmen, quite possibly nothing else.”
“If so you’re firing such a target, you’re probably better off using a shaped charge round such as HEAT.”
He then show off a dummy HEAT projector, which has a funky blunt circular head that “in effect clears the air as a wind shield for the decidedly non-aerodynamic flat bit. The main body of the round also performs something of a stabilizing function and thirdly provides adequate standoff or room for the penetrating jet to form.”
“Here is a metal cone surrounded by explosives. The explosives detonate, the cone collapses the liner.”
Text popped up on screen at 9 minutes in notes that the penetrating jet is not high temperature plasma.
Here’s another video that provides a visualized simulation of how APFSDS rounds work.
Here’s a bit of appliance review that, alas, I probably can’t profit from in any way, since Amazon doesn’t seem to sell the model.
My old Whirpool washer died in December, so I did some research as to what washer I should be. And most of my research was watching this video:
And the two brands he recommended were:
The Speed Queen TC5000, for which I was quoted delivery times of 6-8 weeks, and
The Maytag MVWP575GW, which I could order directly from Maytag in about a week for around a grand, plus shipping and install. So that’s what I did.
That’s more than you’re going to pay for an average washer these days. I’ve been using it for six months now, and I’m pretty satisfied.
What’s so special about it? It uses commercial grade mechanical parts instead of cheap plastic parts and fragile electronics.
It’s a dumb washer rather than a smart one. This has many benefits:
Once you press Start, instead of spending 20 or 30 seconds with the “Sensing” LED lit up, it simply starts filing the tub with water.
If you forget to add something you meant to wash, you press the same Start button, lift the lid, put it back down, and press it again, and the washer simply starts washing where it left off. It doesn’t blink lights at you accusingly and refuse to run until you unplug and replug the machine.
So far it’s never stopped mid-cycle for no discernible reason.
It finishes washing quicker, even with a presoak and extra spin.
America’s misguided energy- and water-saving regulations have left us with an array of devices that inferior to earlier generations of dumb devices at the main job they were designed for.
Here’s a nice, short rant from Paul Chato (who I’d not heard of before) on why Disney’s social justice re-imagining of classic franchises fail: It’s not just their woeful ignorance of their own franchise, it’s the woeful ignorance of the vaster connected universe of fandom/geekdom/nerdom.
“The thing that really ties those of us who grew up reading comic books together is not the primary properties like Superman, Batman, Spider-man, or even Lord of the Rings, but the peripheral stuff or peripheral interests. When we talk to each other, we’ll also reference video games, anime, manga, computers, astronomy, network protocols, synthesizers, cars.”
Put a bunch of us nerds together, even complete strangers, into a room, well, Heaven help you, and soon we’ll be talking about Cowboy Bebop or Akira Kurosawa, or NES, Atari, ColecoVision, Ultraman, Kirby, Adams, McFarland, Studio Ghibli, second breakfasts, Plan 9 From Outer Space, Fireball XL5, Scooby-Doo, The Day The Earth Stood Still, Matrix (only the first one), Terminator, Blade Runner, Aliens, Herge, Miller, Robert E. Howard, Harryhausen, Lasseter, good scotch. Has anyone heard Kathleen Kennedy talk about any of those things? Of course not, and I can hear you laughing.
That’s a pretty good name check list, though I’d add Robert A. Heinlein and H. P. Lovecraft (among others).
But it’s an interesting point: Social justice showrunners are woefully ignorant of vast swathes of knowledge held by the fandoms they hold in such withering contempt.