Posts Tagged ‘Ayatollah Khomeini’

Iran, Persuasion, And The Limits Of Rational Actor Theory

Thursday, July 9th, 2026

The On-Again, Never-Really-Off-Again war with Iran is most definitely on again.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces completed a new round of offensive strikes against Iran, July 7, hitting over 80 targets with precision munitions as an immediate response to Iran’s latest attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. forces struck Iranian air defense systems, command and control networks, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities, and more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats in and near the strait to degrade Iran’s ability to continue attacking international commerce flowing through the international trade corridor.

Iran recently attacked three commercial vessels transiting the strait including Marshall Islands-flagged M/T Al Rekayyat, Saudi Arabia-flagged M/T Wedyan, and Liberian-flagged M/T Cyprus Prosperity. The unwarranted aggression by Iranian forces is a clear and dangerous violation of the ceasefire and undermines freedom of navigation.

July 8:

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces completed an additional round of strikes against Iran, July 8, to further degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping and innocent civilian mariners in the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. forces struck approximately 90 Iranian military targets including air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites, naval capabilities, and military logistics infrastructure along Iran’s coastline. The latest strikes follow successful execution of offensive strikes in Iran the night before.

CENTCOM forces hit approximately 80 Iranian military targets July 7, including more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats, to impose heavy costs for Iran violating the ceasefire by attacking three commercial vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz.

So it turns out I didn’t actually need to read the complete “Memorandum of Understanding” between the U.S. and Iran after all. Sometimes sloth is a great time saver.

During the “ceasefire” that was mostly fire and very little cease, a recurring pattern emerged: Iran would launch attacks on shipping, claiming all traffic needed to offer up danegeld for safe passage, all while asserting the most ludicrous series of lies about what the United States had agreed to. The U.S. was immediately going to unfreeze all Iranian assets. Iran would be allowed to charge ships for safe passage through the straits. Hamas and Hezbollah were free from all Israeli attacks. Etc.

So President Trump finally tired of these shenanigans and hit the unpause button, and now U.S. forces are pounding the snot out of Iran (again), while Iran launches missiles and drones at U.S. bases and other gulf states (again). Sure, Iran may be suffering from hyperinflation and it now takes some 1.3 million rials to buy a single dollar, but they always manages to produce enough missiles and drones to keep up the illusion of puissance, much like they they were able to fund their nuclear program and international terrorism for decades rather than meet their citizen’s basic needs.

Trump tends to view the world through the twin lenses of persuasion and tit-for-tat strategy. Make an agreement with me and we’ll both prosper. Attack me and I’ll attack you back even harder. His methods have produced impressive results in all sorts of unexpected areas, but for them to work, his counterparts need to be rational actors capable of understanding and acting in their own self interest.

The Islamic Republic of Iran is not a rational actor.

From its very earliest inception, the Islamic Republic of Iran has mirrored founder Ayatollah Khomeini’s belief that the United States (“the Great Satan”) and Israel (“the Little Satan”) are affronts to Islam that must be fought and destroyed. Catspaws Hezbollah and Hamas believe that the founding of Israel (“the Zionist entity”) was a literal affront to God that must be expunged through violent jihad.

‘The day the enemies usurp part of Moslem land, Jihad becomes the individual duty of every Moslem. In the face of the Jews’ usurpation, it is compulsory that the banner of Jihad be raised.’ (Article 15)

‘Ranks will close, fighters joining other fighters, and masse everywhere in the Islamic world will come forward in response to the call of duty, loudly proclaiming: ‘Hail to Jihad!’. This cry will reach the heavens and will go on being resounded until liberation is achieved, the invaders vanquished and Allah’s victory comes about.’ (Article 33)…

‘[Peace] initiatives, and so-called peaceful solutions and international conferences are in contradiction to the principles of the Islamic Resistance Movement… Those conferences are no more than a means to appoint the infidels as arbitrators in the lands of Islam… There is no solution for the Palestinian problem except by Jihad. Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are but a waste of time, an exercise in futility.’ (Article 13)

Honestly, until late into Trump’s first term, I would have agreed with Hamas that international conferences on peace in the middle east were exercises in futility. But the unexpected success of the Abraham Accords indicate that most Sunni states have finally come to believe that peaceful co-existence with Israel is a much more profitable proposition than fighting endless losing wars against it.

But the Islamic Republic of Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas were acting on the doctrine of waqf and Islam’s division of the world into Dar al-Islam (the “House of Submission to Islam” AKA “the House of Peace”) and Dar al-Harb (the House of War). Under Islam, no land consecrated to Islam can ever be ruled by an unbeliever, and it is a duty of every Muslim to wage jihad against the non-Islamic rulers of such lands until they are restored to Dar al-Islam.

But not even that is enough for Hamas, who seek the extermination of all Jews everywhere.

And don’t forget that Iran’s fundamentalist Twelver Shiia regime has devout apocalyptic eschatological beliefs about the return of the occulted Mahdi, one in which the Islamic Republic will create the conditions to hasten his return and reign before the Day of Judgment. Asking them to stop supporting terrorism in the wake of bombing and hyperinflation is like asking an Evangelical to give up their belief in the Rapture and the Second Coming in order to lower their gasoline bill. By the standards of economics, traditional geopolitics and game theory, they cannot be considered “rational actors.”

Some observers have argued that the U.S. has already “won” the war against Iran by shattering its nuclear program, decapitating its leadership and destroying numerous military assets while taking extremely few casualties. But the United States won just about every battle it fought in Afghanistan and Vietnam, but still lost those wars by letting its adversaries survive. If the current cycle continues, the U.S. and Israel will continue to pound the snot out of Iran only for it to proclaim that the U.S. has agreed to not only let it control the Strait, but will give it a new navy to boot.

For war to be decisive, ultimately somebody’s ass must be kicked and instruments of surrender signed. An actual treaty of surrender for Iran would specify that:

  1. Iran gives up all claim to controlling the Hormuz Strait and pledges to allow free, unconditional passage of vessels.
  2. Iran pledges to give up every single part of its nuclear program, including surrendering all enriched uranium and enrichment centrifuges, and agrees to unlimited International Atomic Energy Agency inspections of any site throughout the country.
  3. Iran agrees to allow the supervised destruction of its ballistic missile program.
  4. Iran agrees to stop all material and financial support of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, as well as any other transnational jihadist organization outside Iran.
  5. Iran pledges an immediate transition to a popularly-elected, secular democracy in which the existing fundamentalist Shiite theocracy has no role, with initial elections overseen by international observers appointed by the United States.
  6. Iran promises limited autonomy to ethnic minorities (Kurds, Lurs, etc.) and religious freedom and tolerance to persecuted religious minorities (Sufis, Baha’is, Nizari Isma’ilis, etc., not to mention Christians, Jews and Sunnis).

In short, for a real, lasting peace, the Islamic Republic of Iran must stop being the government of Iran. Because its rulers are not rational actors, there is no level of persuasion short of absolute destruction that will prevent its messianic, fundamentalist leaders from pursuing nuclear weapons to wipe the grave offense to Allah that is Israel off the face of the earth. And I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that a full-scale nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel is not in the best interests of the United States.

Removing the Islamic Republic of Iran from power will not remotely be easy, and will have to be brought about by some combination of continued assassination and destruction of Revolutionary Guard assets, the use of regional proxy armies (such as the Kurds), possibly turning of non-IRGC military leadership and units, a popular uprising by (possibly U.S. armed and trained) Iranian civilians, and yes, even the dreaded “boots on the ground” from Israeli and U.S. forces and the occupation of, at the very least, Tehran and Qom, no matter how many “austere religious scholars” need to be dirtnapped along the way.

The U.S. lost Vietnam and Afghanistan because the insurgents we were fighting had sanctuary in, and were backed by, nation states (North Vietnam and Pakistan). That will not be the case in Iran, as the Sunni-dominated governments of Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, and Afghanistan are deeply unlikely to back a Shiite insurgency in Iran.

The cost of victory in Iran will be high, but failure to finally rid the world of a radical Islamic regime irredeemably hostile to the United States of America and a backer of transnational terrorism, especially given the considerable military assets already deployed into theater, will be much higher than slightly expensive gas.

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When Israel And Iran Teamed Up Against Saddam

Saturday, April 18th, 2026

The Islamic Republic of Iran is notorious for its pathological hatred of Israel. However, this hatred didn’t prevent the two countries from cooperating against a mutual enemy: Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.

  • “In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Israel actively collaborated with the Islamic Republic of Iran, and in fact described that country as its most valuable ally, even above the United States, which will undoubtedly shock some people watching this video. But of course, they both feared Iraq, an enemy to both of their nations, and particularly were worried about Saddam Hussein acquiring nuclear weapons.”
  • “The problem dated back to the 1960s, when Iraq began to establish a nuclear energy program for civilian use [“Civilian use.” Sure it was. -LP] and by the mid 1970s was looking to purchase a reactor.”
  • “Most countries wouldn’t touch such a deal with a barge pole. Except the French, who made a deal with Iraq in 1974 to75 to sell them an Osiris class research reactor plus 72 kg of 93% enriched uranium and of course provide the training for Iraqi personnel to run such a facility.”
  • “The deal would net the French $300 million at today’s prices about $1.7 billion.”
  • “Israel’s Mossad Intelligence Organization began immediate efforts to sabotage the program before all of the equipment and scientists were in place in Iraq. On the 6th of April 1979, Mossad agents damaged the Ozerak reactor while it was awaiting shipment from France.”
  • “Then the Mossad went further and assassinated Egyptian nuclear scientist Professor Yahya El Mashad, who would head the Iraqi nuclear program, killing him in his room at the Meridian Hotel in Paris.”
  • “However, Iraq did receive in July 1980 12kg of highly enriched uranium fuel for the reactor, the first of six phase deliveries from France.”
  • “Israel first tried diplomatic pressure via France and the United States, but the French government was unmoved.”
  • “The longer Israel waited, so the Israelis thought, the larger the chance that Saddam Hussein would begin building a nuclear bomb.”
  • “The Mossad also poisoned two Iraqi engineers involved with the project in Switzerland and France, respectively, and sent threatening letters to French personnel involved in the deal, frightening some of them off.”
  • “In 1979, the US allied Shah of Iran was deposed in the Islamic Revolution and a new government formed under Ayatollah Khomeini. He was no friend of Israel or the Jews, but Israel nonetheless urged Iran to bomb the Iraqi reactor.”
  • “Iran actually didn’t require much persuasion. The new hardline Islamic regime in Tehran hated Iraq and saw it as a greater threat than Israel.”
  • “The Iran-Iraq War broke out shortly afterwards when Saddam’s army invaded Iran. And it appeared that getting rid of any possible nuclear weapons that he might develop was in the interests of both Iran and Israel.”
  • Problem: The U.S. embargoed spare parts to Iran due to that pesky hostage crisis. “Incredibly, the Israelis secretly shipped US-made aircraft spares to Tehran so that the Iranian air force could put together a viable strike force.”
  • “The Ozerak reactor site was defended by a single battery of Soviet SA6 missiles, plus three batteries of French Roland 2 missiles and some Soviet 23 and 57 mm radar guided anti-aircraft guns.”
  • “Due to the state of the Iranian Air Force, its F-4 Phantom fighter bombers could only jam the SA6s and not the Rolands. So the pilots would have to fly very low and fast and depart equally quickly, requiring great skill. Israel and Syria also provided the Iranians with some up-to-date intelligence on the reactor site.”
  • “Operation Scorch Sword, the Iranian attack, commenced on the 30th of September, 1980 with four F4 Phantoms flying to the Iraqi border and being refueled by an Iranian Boeing 707 tanker escorted by two F-14 Tomcats. Each Phantom carried six Mark 82 general purpose bombs, two AI7 Sparrow air-to-air missiles, also had an integral M61A1 Vulcan 20mm cannon.”
  • “The Phantoms then raced into Iraq at very low level, then climbed to allow the Iraqi radars to briefly paint them in an effort to confuse the Iraqis as to the direction the Iranian aircraft were traveling and then drop low again and turn towards the reactor site. One pair would bomb the reactor. The other pair would attack its associated power station.”
  • “The pair approached the Tamuz reactor at low level, pulled up about 2 and 1/2 km from their target, and then released 12 bombs.”
  • “At the same time, the other two Phantoms, bombed the power station at Tammuz, knocking out electricity to Baghdad for 2 days. Two bombs hit the Tammuz One reactor, while others started a huge fire, destroyed all sorts of equipment, laboratories, and other support buildings. No shots were fired at the Iranian planes.”
  • “Damage to the reactor was listed by the Iraqis as ‘minor.'”
  • So time for the Israelis to take a whack. “The Israeli operation was code-named Opera, and had to wait until Israel received their brand-spanking-new F-16s from the U.S.
  • “Reconnaissance missions found a blind spot in Iraq’s radars on the border with Saudi Arabia, and it was decided that the Israelis would enter via this gap.”
  • “The Israeli attack force comprised eight F-16As, each armed with two unguided Mark 84 2,000lb delay action bombs. Cover was to be provided by a further flight of six F-15As.”
  • Random fact: “The attacking pilots included Ilan Ramon, who would later die aboard the space shuttle Colombia in 2003, where he was a payload specialist.”
  • “On the 7th of June 1981, the Israeli attack force departed, passing through Jordanian and Saudi airspace and when challenged, telling air traffic control over Jordan that they were Saudi patrol that had gone off course, and over Saudi Arabia that they were a Jordanian patrol that had likewise become lost.
  • “The F-16s climbed to 6,900 ft 12 mi from the reactor, then dived at 680 mph, releasing bombs at 3,600 ft. Eight out of 16 bombs hit the reactor containment dome. Iraqi anti-aircraft fire opened up, but the F-16s climbed away unharmed.”
  • “Though Saddam determined to rebuild the reactor with French assistance, the ongoing war with Iran and payment problems killed this off. And in 1991, during the first Gulf War, the US bombed the facility out of existence permanently.”

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    Gabbard: Iran Still Not Building Nukes. I Remain Skeptical

    Wednesday, March 26th, 2025

    In some under-reported news, “Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said Tuesday that the intelligence community maintains its assessment from prior years that Iran is not currently actively pursuing a nuclear weapon, but that open discussion of nuclearization has increased inside the regime.”

    “The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamanei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003,” Gabbard said in her opening remarks at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing.

    But, Gabbard added, “In the past year, we have seen an erosion of a decades-long taboo in Iran on discussing nuclear weapons in public, likely emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran’s decision-making apparatus. Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is at its highest levels and is unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons.”

    Gabbard also said that the full impacts of renewed sanctions on Iran are not yet in effect, but that the “message … is certainly heard.”

    The intelligence community’s annual threat assessment, released in conjunction with the hearing, predicts that Iran will continue efforts to threaten U.S. citizens globally and develop networks and conduct operations inside the United States.

    It also describes Iran’s military capabilities and proxy armies as an ongoing threat to the U.S. and its allies, despite Israeli successes in degrading those capabilities.

    “The IC assesses Iran’s prospects for reconstituting force losses and posing a credible deterrent, particularly to Israeli actions, are dim in the near-term,” the report continues.

    Color me skeptical on Iran not developing nukes, for a number of reasons:

    1. The Trump Administration has only been in office a hair over two months, and Tulsi Gabbard, confirmed February 12, a bit less than that, meaning that there has not been enough time for an effective screening and purge of the national security apparatus. I’m sure vast swathes of deadwood left over from the Obama and Biden Administrations, including the careerists still in place from official efforts to sell the infamous Obama Iran deal to a properly skeptical public. As such, their judgment can’t be trusted.
    2. We have no way of knowing just how much Uranium Iran has enriched, or how many enrichment sites Iran actually has, and there’s no reason to believe that same deadwood was terribly motivated under Obama to uncover them, given how desperately he wanted the Iran deal. Given the revelations that continue to come out from DOGE’s deep dive into government finances, it seems only reasonable to assume that untold amounts of that Iran deal cash found its way back into Democratic grandee pockets.
    3. The entire existence of the Islamic Republic of Iran is predicated on the theocratic theories of Ayatollah Khomeini, who hated the United States, Israel and democracy long before the current ideological core of the Democratic Party did. Given its theocratic roots, Iran’s current leaders would have no compunction to lying the officials of any non-Islamic state that dwells in dar al-harb (the house of war), which it considers (along with the Sunni states) to be its enemies.
    4. Moreover, typical Shia Twelver eschatology believes in an apocalyptic Day of Judgment when the 12th (occluded) imam, AKA the Mahdi, will reveal himself and help purify the world. Indeed, one of Khomeini’s honorifics was Na’eb-e Imam (Deputy to the Twelfth Imam). Therefore, there is little reason to believe the mullahs currently running the Islamic Republic of Iran would balk at unleashing nuclear weapons on its enemies, especially if they thought it would bring about the return of the Mahdi. And remember that Iranian catspaw Hamas believes the mere existence of Israel is an affront to God, and that destroying it is their holy duty.

    So I would still take any intelligence claims about knowing the precise state of Iran’s nuclear program with several grains of salt.

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    Gulbuddin Hekmatyar Takes Credit for Occupy Wall Street

    Sunday, November 20th, 2011

    Sometimes different stories you’re following twine together in weird and unexpected ways. Today it’s news from MEMRI that former mujahideen commander, Islamic radical, and all-around-asshole Gulbuddin Hekmatyar is taking credit for inspiring Occupy Wall Street.

    If you don’t remember Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, he first rose to prominence as commander of the Hezb-i islami faction of the mujahideen fighting the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s. Fighting the Soviets was pretty much the last decent thing Hekmatyar ever did, and he wasn’t very good at it, especially compared to his chief rival, Ahmed Shah Massoud, commander of Jamiat-i Islami, who was one of the greatest guerrilla warfare commanders of the 20th century. If “Hezb-i islami” sounds an awful lot like “Hezbollah,” that’s because they’re both different branches of the same transnational affiliation of radical Shia Islamic fundamentalism. Hekmatyar the sort of guy who thought the Ayatollah Khomeini was too much of liberal softie. Hekmatyar spent almost as much time fighting Massoud as he did fighting the Soviets, and after the Soviets left he changed sides so many times in the various Afghan civil wars that followed (in the government, out of the government, with the Taliban, against the Taliban, etc.) that it’s hard to keep track. He was also one of Osama Bin Laden’s drinking buddies in the 1990s. Pretty much anytime he showed up was bad news for Afghanistan, and now he’s one of the head jerks fighting the Afghan government.

    Now he’s taking credit for “inspiring” Occupy Wall Street. Yeah, right. I think you would be hard-pressed to find anyone at Occupy Wall Street that had even heard of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar (or even any foreign political figure before Bush43 that isn’t featured on a t-shirt).

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