Posts Tagged ‘Shiites’

Iran: IRGC Commanders Assassinated; U.S., Israeli Help Expected UPDATED

Sunday, January 11th, 2026

Friday we reported the assassination of IRCG commander Mahmoud Haqiqat in Iranshahr.

Now, in a Livestream, TousiTV is reporting the assassination of other IRCG officials:

  • “Reza Kasab, head of a ballistic missile unit in Kashan, this was a professional hit. He was assassinated by a suicide drone attack.”
  • “There are a lot of operatives on the ground carrying out these attacks.”
  • “Multiple generals have been killed in Iran.”
  • He notes that Israel’s strikes last year killed multiple senior IRGC officials, so now the replacement leaders are being killed.
  • “Islamic State TV in Iran have confirmed that IRCG have lost hundreds of their personnel in leadership.” My suspicion is that the IRCG have lost hundreds, but not all in leadership.
  • Reports of Mossad agents on the ground helping the revolution. This is the sort of thing that both sides in the conflict would say to help shore up resolve in their respective bases, but the drone attack suggests it’s true. (Could also be IDF special forces, CIA, or U.S. special forces.)
  • But it carries more weight when it comes from Mossad’s official Farsi Twitter account. “Go out together into the streets. The time has come. We are with you. Not only from a distance and verbally. We are with you in the field.”
  • “There is someone professional carrying out these attacks against the Islamic occupation in Iran.”
  • “Reza Pahlavi has called for a general strike.” But everybody’s already on strike.
  • Reports of atrocities committed by the regime against the people (of course). “Over 2,000 people have been killed.”
  • Israel’s military is on full alert, and Iran is threatening to launch “over 500” missiles at them.
  • American strike against the regime expected on Tuesday? “Trump has been doubling down every single day.” And indeed, Tuesday seems to have a scheduled meeting for Trump to go over military options in Iran.

    • Caveats: Tousi TV is run by Mahyar Tousi, a fierce critic of Iran’s Islamist regime, so he’s more cheerleader for the revolution than a neutral observer. So am I, but I always council caution on believing good news you want to believe. But several elements of what Tousi has stated here appear to check out.

    Those are just a few early highlights of a livestream that’s still ongoing.

    There are already rumors circulating that the regime is flying gold to Russia in advance of Ali Khamenei bugging out to Moscow.

    Things in Iran moving very fast indeed.

    Update: Tousi has a livestream with the teaser “Trump is sending help” scheduled for 2:45 PM…

    Update 2:

  • From that Livestream: “President Trump confirms he will be sending help to the Iranian people.”
  • Iranian people continue to occupy the streets of Tehran in defiance of the regime’s armed threats.
  • “There is a President in the White House who supports them.”
  • “They’re not going back to work. There’s no work. There’s no money. There’s no light. There’s no water.”
  • IDF hitting Hezbollah in Lebanon.
  • U.S.: “Multiple military options.” Including cybersupport.
  • Heh: “Lindsey Graham doing Lindsey Graham things.”
  • “Reza Pahlavi is coming.”
  • Protesters are disarming regime forces on the street.
  • Now the regime is trying to jam Starlink.
  • U.S. forces have been hitting Islamic State targets in Syria. (Not sure how relevant this is to Iran. The Islamic State considers shiia heretical so, unlike Hamas or Hezbollah, are unlikely to help the regime.)
  • Reports of regime forces seizing satellite dishes.

    • Update 3: Embedding the stream:

    More later, probably.

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    Posted in Foreign Policy, Global Warming, Jihad, Military | 3 Comments »

    Iran: Don’t Fear Regime Change

    Thursday, June 19th, 2025

    There’s a raging debate on the right about whether the Trump Administration should back regime change in Iran or not. After holding off on killing Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (reportedly at Trump’s behest), Israel seems quite open to taking him out along with any remnants of the rest of the regime. Some figures on the right (Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens being two, though each have being moving, at various speeds, to the right’s fringes for a while now) are absolutely dead-set against regime change in Iran.

    Over all of this, of course, hangs the specter of the Iraq War(s), in which the United States expended trillions of dollars and thousands of soldiers lives in order to gain very little (deposing Saddam and sorta, kinda, stabilizing post-Saddam Iraq). And for all this we got to endure three decades of heightened terrorist attacks due to having U.S. troops in “the land of the two mosques.” So it’s understandable that Americans would want to avoid another long slog of nation-building in a failed Middle East state to prevent it from becoming a haven for transnational Islamic terrorism.

    Understandable, but not applicable to Iran, for the most basic of reasons. Iraq was an Arab state with Sunni minority leaders ruling over a restive Shiite minority. The Islamic Republic of Iran is a Persian nation currently ruled over by a Shiite theocratic dictatorship that is already one of the region’s main (if not the main) financial supporters of terrorism. There’s no danger of an Arab Sunni terrorist group like the Islamic State taking hold, because the population of Sunni Arabs in Iran is too small for such an insurgency to take hold. And there’s no nation in the Middle East that seems likely to pick up the mantle of funding Shiite fundamentalism in the region. (Qatar’s ruling family is Sunni, as is the overwhelming majority of Pakistan.) Ali Khamenei is the head of the snake, and when his regime dies, the snake dies as well.

    If Israel can finish off Khamenei’s regime, what follows it will not be something worse, or even a failed state like Somalia. There is every sign that ordinary Iranians are weary to death of being under the heel of the Mullahs, and what will follow more likely to be more secular and western-oriented state than what is there now (which is, to be sure, a very low bar.) And though Iran is somewhat multi-ethnic, the minorities there (primarily Kurds and various Turkish ethnicities) are too small compared to the ethnic Persian majority to seriously contend for control of the Iranian state. (The Kurds could, in theory, launch a bid for independence (or, like in Iraq and Syria, quasi-independence), but without U.S. support are unlikely to make much headway. Their best play may be to negotiate broad autonomy with any new government.)

    Could there be a civil war power struggle to rule post-theocratic Iran? Possibly. Still a better outcome for us than a theocratic, terrorist-supporting Islamic state with nuclear weapons. Ditto a military dictatorship, as long as they allowed an end to the nuclear weapons program. Ditto any number of other possible political outcomes, from a modern, secular democratic state to a (deeply unlikely) restoration of the Pahlavi monarchy. All are almost certainly improvements over the fanatical, institutional hostility to the west shown by the mullahs. (Not to mention the fanatical, institutional hostility to Israel. Historically, Persians and Jews have gotten along well, both being outsiders to the Turks and Arabs running the Ottoman Empire.)

    There’s no reason to fear a post-theocratic Iran because we won’t be the one having to do nation-building or pick up the pieces.

    Getting rid of a government than ritually chants “Death to America” and funds terrorists that have killed numerous Americans throughout the life of the regime must be considered a desirable outcome. The Abraham Accords indicated that a number of Sunni Arab states are abandoning their institutional hostility to Israel and the west, and toppling the mullahs will dry up funds for Shiite terrorism across the world as well. The result will not automatically make the Middle East peaceful and prosperous, but will probably calm things down enough to measurably move the region a bit closer to those admittedly very distant goals.

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    Posted in Foreign Policy, Jihad, Military | 18 Comments »

    Gabbard: Iran Still Not Building Nukes. I Remain Skeptical

    Wednesday, March 26th, 2025

    In some under-reported news, “Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said Tuesday that the intelligence community maintains its assessment from prior years that Iran is not currently actively pursuing a nuclear weapon, but that open discussion of nuclearization has increased inside the regime.”

    “The IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamanei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003,” Gabbard said in her opening remarks at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing.

    But, Gabbard added, “In the past year, we have seen an erosion of a decades-long taboo in Iran on discussing nuclear weapons in public, likely emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran’s decision-making apparatus. Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is at its highest levels and is unprecedented for a state without nuclear weapons.”

    Gabbard also said that the full impacts of renewed sanctions on Iran are not yet in effect, but that the “message … is certainly heard.”

    The intelligence community’s annual threat assessment, released in conjunction with the hearing, predicts that Iran will continue efforts to threaten U.S. citizens globally and develop networks and conduct operations inside the United States.

    It also describes Iran’s military capabilities and proxy armies as an ongoing threat to the U.S. and its allies, despite Israeli successes in degrading those capabilities.

    “The IC assesses Iran’s prospects for reconstituting force losses and posing a credible deterrent, particularly to Israeli actions, are dim in the near-term,” the report continues.

    Color me skeptical on Iran not developing nukes, for a number of reasons:

    1. The Trump Administration has only been in office a hair over two months, and Tulsi Gabbard, confirmed February 12, a bit less than that, meaning that there has not been enough time for an effective screening and purge of the national security apparatus. I’m sure vast swathes of deadwood left over from the Obama and Biden Administrations, including the careerists still in place from official efforts to sell the infamous Obama Iran deal to a properly skeptical public. As such, their judgment can’t be trusted.
    2. We have no way of knowing just how much Uranium Iran has enriched, or how many enrichment sites Iran actually has, and there’s no reason to believe that same deadwood was terribly motivated under Obama to uncover them, given how desperately he wanted the Iran deal. Given the revelations that continue to come out from DOGE’s deep dive into government finances, it seems only reasonable to assume that untold amounts of that Iran deal cash found its way back into Democratic grandee pockets.
    3. The entire existence of the Islamic Republic of Iran is predicated on the theocratic theories of Ayatollah Khomeini, who hated the United States, Israel and democracy long before the current ideological core of the Democratic Party did. Given its theocratic roots, Iran’s current leaders would have no compunction to lying the officials of any non-Islamic state that dwells in dar al-harb (the house of war), which it considers (along with the Sunni states) to be its enemies.
    4. Moreover, typical Shia Twelver eschatology believes in an apocalyptic Day of Judgment when the 12th (occluded) imam, AKA the Mahdi, will reveal himself and help purify the world. Indeed, one of Khomeini’s honorifics was Na’eb-e Imam (Deputy to the Twelfth Imam). Therefore, there is little reason to believe the mullahs currently running the Islamic Republic of Iran would balk at unleashing nuclear weapons on its enemies, especially if they thought it would bring about the return of the Mahdi. And remember that Iranian catspaw Hamas believes the mere existence of Israel is an affront to God, and that destroying it is their holy duty.

    So I would still take any intelligence claims about knowing the precise state of Iran’s nuclear program with several grains of salt.

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    Posted in Foreign Policy, Jihad, Military | 3 Comments »

    Nasrallah Lotsa Fallouta

    Sunday, September 29th, 2024

    Friday’s airstrike on Hezbollah headquarters has been confirmed as killing Hezbollah terrorist leader Hassan Nasrallah.

    Lebanon’s Hezbollah group confirmed on Saturday that its leader and one of its founding members, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in a southern suburb of Beirut.

    The killing of the powerful militant group’s longtime leader sent shockwaves throughout Lebanon and the Middle East, where he has been a dominant political and military figure for more than three decades.

    Nasrallah, linked by Israel to numerous deadly attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets, has been on Israel’s kill list for decades. His assassination is by far the biggest and most consequential of Israel’s targeted killings in years, and significantly escalates the war in the Middle East. The Israeli military said it carried out a precise airstrike on Friday while Hezbollah leaders were meeting at their headquarters in Dahiyeh, south of Beirut.

    Quick reaction:

    Good.

    Fuck that guy.

    Hezbollah is a terrorist organization that has a long history not only of killing Israeli women and children, but also killing Americans, stretching back into the 1980s, and we should celebrate every time a member is killed. Indeed, a whole bunch people who oppose jihad reportedly celebrated Nasrallah’s death in Syria and Iran. Muhannad Alazzeh, former member of the Jordanian Senate, explains:

    Hezbollah is an ideological party based on the principle of Wilayat al-Faqih or Guardianship of the Jurist, which is the cornerstone of the Shiite doctrine. It demands the loyalty of its followers to the guardian jurist, who acts on behalf of heaven’s command. That person is Iran’s Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah Khomeini, and Hezbollah’s fealty to Khomeini is what pushed the party without hesitation to engage in civil wars in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, and to intervene in the protests in Bahrain years ago. These interventions by Hezbollah were not against Israel but against the Muslim citizens in those countries, most of whom were engaged in revolts against tyrannical dictatorial regimes, who built their power off the bodies of their opponents.

    Hezbollah’s support for criminal and corrupt regimes in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Iran has had a much stronger impact on the Arab and Islamic masses than Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel, which is why the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah is not an event worth shedding tears for most of these masses.

    Hezbollah’s involvement in repressive actions in neighboring countries elevated strongman leaders who oppressed their fellow Muslims, which angered enough people that Israel was able to recruit a large base for espionage missions, one which undoubtedly helped in carrying out successive assassinations of Hezbollah leaders, the last but not least of which was the assassination of Nasrallah.

    Even at home in Lebanon, Hezbollah is accused by Lebanese citizens (with the exception of the Shiite community) of being an armed militia that undermines and weakens the Lebanese state. This accusation has turned out to be true over the past years; Hezbollah took up arms against Saad Hariri’s Future Movement in 2008 and occupied buildings and facilities in Beirut in a blatant show of force. The group was also accused of being involved in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

    From the perspective of the overwhelming majority of Arab and Muslim peoples, Hezbollah is a destructive element that fuels sectarian conflicts and supports authoritarian regimes so long as these regimes share a common sectarian affiliation with Hezbollah and the Supreme Leader of Iran wishes to support them.

    Now Israel must deal with Nasrallah’s successor, Hassan Khalil Yassin, who—

    Oh wait. They just did. “The IDF eliminated senior Hezbollah intelligence array terrorist Hassan Khalil Yassin in an additional precision strike in the Dahieh district in Beirut on Saturday, the military reported.”

    That was quick. They also took out another high ranking Hezbollah leader, one Nabil Kaouk, the deputy head of Hezbollah’s Central Council, just today. Enjoy an Iowahawk meme:

    He left out “opportunities for rapid advancement.”

    One of the primary goals of warfare is to take out an enemy’s C3: command, control and communications. Operation Grim Beeper took out their communications, and the bombing campaign has taken out their command and control. It’s as close to an absolute decapitation strike as I’ve seen in warfare. They’ve taken out all of Hezbollah’s leadership, along with several of their Iranian handlers. Hezbollah’s network is gone, and it will take years to reconstitute those hierarchies of competence, if ever. Does Hezbollah have a written succession chart for this situation? Does the Assistant Undersecretary for Raping Jewish Women move all the way up to the top spot? Expect a lot of power-jockeying and internecine warfare among surviving lower-level terrorists, all of whom, in classic Arab fashion, see no reason why they shouldn’t be the ones running things

    The MSM is doing their usual hand-wringing over “escalation” and “a wider war.” With whom? Israel has effectively destroyed Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Syria is still mired in its own unending civil war. Israel aircraft are now pounding the snot out of the Houthis in Yemen. And via Instapundit:

    Is Iran going to send Republican Revolutionary Guard units through Syria to attack the Golan Heights? Are they finally going to pack their much-rumored nuke on one of their missiles and pray really hard it gets past Arrow-2 and -3, David’s Sling and Iron Dome? I’m not even sure the Mahdi personally assuring the mullahs he would unoccult himself would convince them to go toe-to-toe with Israel in a game of nuclear war.

    Israel has effectively destroyed its nearest foes and delivered blows to Iran’s prestige it will take the mullahs years, if not decades, to recover from. As I said back in July, Israel is settling all family business.

    There’s obviously going to be a lot of fallout:

  • What happens to Lebanon’s ruling March 8 coalition, of which Hezbollah is a member? How many Hezbollah members are even still alive? Who do they even take orders from if the entire “military wing” leadership is dead? It’s also no secret that a lot of Hezbollah’s coalition “partners” (especially Christians and Druze) hate their guts, and might take the opportunity for a quick political divorce.
  • One reason Bashar Assad has been able to maintain his tenuous grip on power in Syria is the active support of Hezbollah. With Hezbollah gone, Assad’s position becomes more precarious still, especially with overextended allies Iran and Russia reeling from their own difficulties.
  • Whoever is running the Obama-Biden-Harris foreign policy axis just had their Netanyahu loathing and “Now Israel, you play nice!” dictates blow up in their face. (Exactly a year ago, Biden Administration National Security Advisor Jack Sullivan declared that “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.” How’d that tempting fate think work out for you, Jake?) Their insistence on playing footsie with Iran (because…why? Just because they hate America? Or did some of those billions they handed over to the Mullahs somehow get kicked back into Democratic Party pockets?) and propping up the Palestinians got them October 7, and October 7 finally got Israel to finish off Hamas and Hezbollah in the same war. And Israel wiping the map with Hezbollah and Hamas may end up pushing those “Muslim Michigan voters” we keep hearing about (the ones Democrats spent so much time and effort importing) to vote against Harris in November.

    • Benjamin Netanyahu ignored Biden Administration blithering to finish off Israel’s terrorist enemies, much to the consternation of global anti-Israeli political elites. Netanyahu will probably emerge from the Israeli-Hamas not only stronger than ever, but possibly the most significant Israeli leader since David Ben-Gurion.

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    Posted in Foreign Policy, Jihad, Military | 5 Comments »

    LinkSwarm for March 18, 2016

    Friday, March 18th, 2016

    I hope you’re not too hung over from St. Patrick’s Day (and didn’t get stabbed to death on the Ides of March). Here’s a Friday LinkSwarm:

  • Marco Rubio says that Ted Cruz is the only conservative left in the race. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • John Boehner calls Ted Cruz “Lucifer.” With that even-tempered perspective, it’s impossible to figure out why he’s no longer Speaker…
  • Ted Cruz unveils his national security coalition. Media reports on this have been particularly poor…
  • “African-Americans living in poor neighborhoods cannot rely on Democratic leaders to take the decisive steps needed to ameliorate the problem as long as the Democratic Party can take the black vote for granted. The question, then, is how long can Democratic Party leaders and candidates continue to rely on African-American voters before African-American voters take matters into their own hands.”
  • No amount of primary wins will make Hillary Clinton’s email troubles go away.
  • And if the FBI doesn’t get her, the NSA might. (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • “The Tea Party movement — which you also failed to understand, and thus mostly despised — was a bourgeois, well-mannered effort (remember how Tea Party protests left the Mall cleaner than before they arrived?) to fix America. It was treated with contempt, smeared as racist, and blocked by a bipartisan coalition of business-as-usual elites. So now you have Trump, who’s not so well-mannered, and his followers, who are not so well-mannered, and you don’t like it.”
  • Got to hand it to Donald Trump: this is an effective ad. (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)
  • Jews leave France in record numbers. (Hat tip: Ed Driscoll at Instapundit.)
  • Obama Administration finally comes out and admits that the Islamic State has committed genocide against Yazidis, Christians and Shiites. That’s like Harry Truman finally declaring the Holocaust genocide two years after the liberation of Auschwitz…
  • Putin takes his toys and goes home.

    Contrary to his expectations of finding a pliable ally in Iran, he found the Iranians in control, glad to borrow his air force, arrogant and disdainful in Damascus (and Baghdad) and well on the path to dominating a vast stretch of strategically vital territory. And Iran has no interest in playing junior partner to anyone—least of all a traditional Christian enemy.

    Suddenly, Putin had a vision of a nuclear-armed, radical-Shia empire on Russia’s southern flank. Those Iranian missiles that can reach Israel? They can reach major Russian cities, too.

    Putin’s initial bet on Shia Iran also backfired by turning the Islamic world’s Sunni majority against him — not least Saudi Arabia, which can continue to hold down the price of oil and gas, punishing Russia’s economy far more than it wounds American fracking efforts. And Sunni terrorists have taken a renewed interest in Russia.

  • Hellfire missile intercepted in-route to Portland, Oregon.
  • Minimum wage hike causes fast food restaurants to start investing in automation. Just like conservatives said it would.
  • Texas Public Policy Foundation vs. Bureau of Land Management is now TPPF and The State of Texas vs. BLM. (More background here.)
  • Penny Arcade on Gawker:

    Gawker is poison AIDS cancer. In the same way that the Cross is the symbol for the redemptive power of Christ’s blood, Gawker is the symbol of a metastasized social media. Gawker is Nidhogg, the dragon which gnaws at the root of the World Tree. The causes they enunciate are tarnished, just for being in their mouths.”

    I don’t wish ill on anyone who works there, obviously. I mean, I guess their every action technically does sustain a legitimately evil beast of legend, some Revelations type shit, and they ruin lives for profit whenever they aren’t simply wasting your time.

  • Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton rules that state contractors must continue using E-verify.
  • Everything you know about Altamont is wrong. (Hat tip: Ed Driscoll at Instapundit.)
  • The story behind that memorial mural on the pillar at the Lamar underpass right before Fifth Street.

    Lamar Mural

  • Man the pollen in the air is really bad this time of year in Austin…
  • Dog shows up safe a month after being presumed lost at sea. (Hat tip: Borepatch.)
  • Will the last Elvis impersonator to leave Las Vegas please turn off the neon.

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    Posted in Austin, Border Control, Crime, Democrats, Economics, Elections, Foreign Policy, Jihad | No Comments »