Iran Strikes: Day 9

Lots of news from the war in Iran, much of it in video form.

One reason I do these updates is that the vast majority of MSM reporting is of such poor quality. It’s all government talking heads said this or critics of Trump said that. In other words, lazy reporting crap no one cares about.

Back before American journalists became self-licking ice cream cones, war reporting used to include maps, unit movements, logistics, combat reports from journalists embedded with U.S. units, etc. The BBC still seems to do a little of that, but I’m not seeing that from American outlets, maybe because it’s hard work. They don’t even seem to be bothering to tell ChatGPT to do it for them.

Hence these roundups to fill the gap.

  • As a brief snapshot of the dysfunction at the highest levels of Iranian government, here’s the President of Iran saying “Sorry about all the droning, it won’t happen again,” and the IRGC saying “Shut the hell up, you weak little bitch!”

  • That’s some mighty fine Strategery, Iran. “Tehran’s miscalculation: How Iranian missiles brought Gulf states, Israel together.”

    To many, it seems like an end-of-days scenario: Qatar and Israel on the same team.

    Who would have thought? In September, Israel attacked in Qatar, targeting terrorist leaders the Gulf state was housing. But here we are. After five days of war with Iran, the Iranians have succeeded in putting Israel and Qatar on the same team – to say nothing of the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, and even Saudi Arabia – all countries targeted over the past five days by Iranian missiles and drones.

    By some estimates, Iran has fired more missiles and drones at Gulf states combined than at Israel.

    What Iran may have done is something Israel has long struggled to achieve diplomatically: place Israel and several Sunni Arab states on the same side of a regional conflict. By striking the Gulf states directly, Tehran has widened the war in a way that forces governments across the region to reconsider where their interests truly lie.

    Within the first 48 hours, Tehran launched missiles and drones not only toward Israel but toward every member of the Gulf Cooperation Council: the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain. What might initially have appeared to be a confrontation between Iran and the US and Israel quickly transformed into something wider – a regional conflict touching key Sunni Arab states.

    And it was not only countries that have agreements with Israel that were targeted – the UAE and Bahrain – but also countries that have tried to maintain good relations with Iran, such as Qatar and Oman. Even Turkey announced on Wednesday that an Iranian missile was downed as it headed toward its airspace. By going after these countries, Iran is signaling that it wants everyone in the region to formally pick a side.

    Tellingly, the strikes in the Gulf states were aimed largely at civilian targets rather than solely at US bases and facilities located in those countries. The strikes went far beyond American installations and hit airports, hotels, and oil infrastructure.

    Why? The conventional wisdom is that Tehran hopes to sow chaos in the region and pressure those countries now under attack to lean on Washington to call off the campaign before the situation spirals even further out of control.

  • Having two aircraft carriers launching strikes at Iran evidently wasn’t enough, as the USS George H. W. Bush is now poised to join the party, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford. Obviously you need ships named after Republican presidents to win wars. If you had the USS Barack Obama, it could only drop pallets of cash, and the USS Bill Clinton could only hit on underage Iranian girls…
  • Grand Ayatollah Abdollah Javadi-Amoli had issued a fatwa against President Trump, “says shedding blood of Zionists and Trump is mandatory.” Sounds like someone wants to be moved higher on the drone list.
  • Since Iran has hit the oil facilities on Persian gulf nations, Israel hits oil storage facilities near Tehran. Those burning symbols on this Liveuamap snapshot are where airstrikes have hit oil facilities in and around Tehran.

  • For all the talk of Kurdish forces entering Iran, Trump has said he’s told them not to. But we have numerous reports of Israeli jets hitting targets like IRCG posts along the border and police stations in Iranian Kurdistan.
  • Reports of blinding Iranian satellites:

  • Possibly three new U.S. weapons have been seen in Epic Fury:

    • A black-coated Tomahawk variant, possibly for stealth.
    • The Precision Strike Missile (PrSM). This is a new Lockheed Martin missile to replace ATACMS.
    • Lots of lessons learned from the Russo-Ukrainian War and Ukraine’s use of Patriot there. Missiles are getting intercepted, but Shahed drones are still leaking through.
  • In addition to the B-2 and B-52, the B-1 is also hitting targets in Iran. I think this is the first war in which all the Bs were hitting targets…
  • Suchomimus does damage assessment on Iranian naval assets and other targets hit on both sides:

  • Azerbaijan closes the border crossing with Iran to cargo:

    Iranian truck drivers had already started staging strikes against the regime even before the crossing shutdown. “Inside, 400,000 drivers have cut off contact and are known to be against the regime. While outside, thousands of trucks and drivers are stuck at sealed borders. This double squeeze means the collapse of the state’s control over the economy. The truck drivers mutiny is not just blocking roads. It is breaking the entire industrial backbone from steel to prochemicals, from food to logistics.”

  • Peter Zeihan thinks that China is still supplying Iran via shadow fleet vessels. I can’t confirm or deny that’s still going on.
  • Possibly related: Explosion outside U.S. embassy in Oslo, Norway, no one hurt.
  • Mark Felton asks whether Iranian missiles can hit London? Answer: Probably not.

    “We can probably say that yes, Iran has at least one missile that has the legs to reach the UK [the Simorgg SLV, use to launch satellites into orbit], but not the systems to deliver a warhead successfully. At present, it is technically impossible for Iran to bombard the UK.”

  • Some memes stolen from Sarah Hoyt.

    That last one probably violates the Geneva Convention…

  • Your obligatory Habitual Linecrosser video

  • If you think I missed important news, feel free to share it in the comments below.

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    14 Responses to “Iran Strikes: Day 9”

    1. 10x25mm says:

      Russia has been supplying targeting intelligence to the Iranians from their satellite networks. The Russians are mirroring our Ukrainian support operation at Clay Kaserne in Wiesbaden. The Chinese are also reportedly supplying the Iranians with targeting information from their satellites.

      U.S. aircraft destroyed an Iranian water desalination plant on Qeshm Island, possibly in preparation for a raid. The IRGC immediately responded by destroying the water desalination plant feeding the 5th Fleet Headquarters at Naval Support Activity Bahrain.

    2. FM says:

      A few days old, but here’s an interesting analysis of the decision to use the one combat jet that fast jet USAF hates, the A-10 Warthog, in the first attack wave over Iran:

      https://boltflight.com/u-s-air-force-sends-a-10-thunderbolt-ii-into-opening-strikes-of-operation-epic-fury-against-iranian-targets/

    3. R C Dean says:

      I find it difficult to believe that shadow fleet vessels are sailing right past a massive US armada and into Iranian ports.

    4. Leland says:

      In addition to the B-2 and B-52, the B-1 is also hitting targets in Iran. I think this is the first war in which all the Bs were hitting targets…

      “No, there is another.”

    5. Malthus says:

      “Russia has been supplying targeting intelligence to the Iranians from their satellite networks. The Russians are mirroring our Ukrainian support operation at Clay Kaserne in Wiesbaden.”

      The Ukrainians are making much better use of their targeting information compared to the Iranians and Putin has undoubtedly hurt his chances of winning Trump’s favor in the upcoming Russia/Ukraine negotiations.

      Once again, Putin demonstrates his lack of strategic insight.

    6. 10x25mm says:

      “The Ukrainians are making much better use of their targeting information compared to the Iranians and Putin has undoubtedly hurt his chances of winning Trump’s favor in the upcoming Russia/Ukraine negotiations.

      Once again, Putin demonstrates his lack of strategic insight.”

      You know this, how?

    7. Malthus says:

      “A huge line of trucks formed at the Estara border crossing. Hundreds of kilometers of highway began to fill with huge piles of steel that couldn’t move.”

      This sounds a lot like the initial stage of Putin’ Special Military Operation: a huge line of tanks formed at the Ukrainian border crossing; hundreds of kilometers of highway began to fill with huge piles of steel that could not move forward and were forced to retreat.

      It looks like Putin is destined to fail commercially, just as he has failed militarily.

    8. 10x25mm says:

      “This sounds a lot like the initial stage of Putin’ Special Military Operation: a huge line of tanks formed at the Ukrainian border crossing; hundreds of kilometers of highway began to fill with huge piles of steel that could not move forward and were forced to retreat.

      It looks like Putin is destined to fail commercially, just as he has failed militarily.”

      Russia’s border with Azerbaijan is on the other (northern) side of the country, at the Republic of Dagestan. This story is about Iranian-Azeri traffic, entirely unrelated to Russian traffic. Learn how to read a topo map.

      Azeri road traffic, throughout the country, is hemmed into the Caspian plain by rugged mountains to the west, which cause a lot of aggravation for travelers & trucks.

    9. Pod Hamp says:

      Thanks for the update. Not to be picky, but your first excerpt from the jpost seems to be repeating itself.

    10. Richard says:

      AFAIK, the Iranians have not managed to hit anything that is moving. Things that don’t move like buildings can be targeted with Google Earth. Since the leak about Russian targeting was in the NYT, that means it came from the CIA. Memo to Trump: the Deep State isn’t dead yet.

      The Azeris are not amused that the Iranians launched a missile at them and that may have something to do with the traffic delays at the border.

    11. Lawrence Person says:

      Thanks. Fixed.

    12. Malthus says:

      “You know this, how?”

      You still believe Putin is a strategic genius, then?

    13. Malthus says:

      “This story is about Iranian-Azeri traffic, entirely unrelated to Russian traffic. Learn how to read a topo map.”

      According to the video, 1,500 trucks are stranded, all Russian. They faithfully followed their topo maps, which led to their encountering an impenetrable barrier, kinda like the Gates of Kyiv.

      Perhaps you imagine the border guards will call out, “All-ye, all-ye out are in free!” if the truckers show them a topo map but topography is not at issue here.

    14. 10x25mm says:

      “You still believe Putin is a strategic genius, then?”

      Putin, no. General Apocalypse, yes.

      By the way, Azerbaijan reopened all of its border crossings with the Iran at 10:00 AM Zulu, today. Entry and exit has been restored for all classes of vehicles. Evidently, the Azeris are not interested in provoking a civil war with their Shia citizens.

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