Despite increasing sanctions and scrutiny on hostile Chinese business practices and intellectual property theft, private equity firms have previously managed to mostly evade scrutiny for taking Chinese money. That may finally be changing.
Takeaways:
Pardon me if I express deep skepticism that the Biden White House will actually constrict the inflow of Chinese money…
India has been trying to get into semiconductor fabrication for a while now, and after announcing a $10 billion investment fund, and with China locked out of so much semiconductor technology, there have been a lot of news bubbling up, but I want to focus on the Foxconn/Vedanta fab project.
The Economic Times is reporting that Foxconn and Vedanta are seeking to bring in European chipmaker STMicroelectronics as their technology partner in their proposed India manufacturing unit. The two companies announced their joint venture February 2021, with Foxconn as lead partner. Vedanta are reportedly seeking to onboard a CXO to head their semiconductor business.
Snip.
Vedanta-Foxconn are set to finalize a location for their facility in the next few weeks. The consortium are reportedly seeking a 800-1000 acre land parcel that is also well connected with Ahmedabad. The Gujarat government, as of media reports on September 16, showing sites at Sanand and Mandal-Becharaji in Ahmedabad district, two locations near Vadodara in central Gujarat, Dholera, Himmatnagar, Jamnagar, and Kutch. The plant has to be located at a distance from national and state highways so to cut off any vibration from heavy traffic movement. Further, no other major industry should be located in its vicinity.
Vedanta and Foxconn, in a 60-40 joint venture, will be setting up India’s first semiconductor production plant, a display fab unit, and a semiconductor assembling and testing unit over 1000 acres in Ahmedabad, state of Gujarat. The plant will begin production in two years as Foxconn plays the role of technical partner while Vedanta provides financial backing. The investment is worth over INR 1.54 trillion (approx. US$20 billion) and semiconductor manufacturing will be carried out by the holding company, Volcan Investments Limited.
Foxconn is a serious tech player that has serious mastery over the value-added chain. $20 billion, assuming it actually materializes, is real money, even in semiconductors. It’s right around the threshold to build a state of the art sub-10nm fab, even though it’s apparent that that’s not what they’re aiming for.
Vedanta, on the other hand, is another matter. They’re “a globally diversified natural resources company. We extract and process minerals, oil and gas.” Yeah, a natural resources company generally isn’t who you want running your fabs. Another strike is their talking about “Net Zero Carbon by 2050,” which suggests they may have their fingers in political scam pies.
STMicroelectronics is a real chipmaker that runs real fabs, but not the first company I would turn toward to purchase cutting edge process technology from, nor even the tenth. The fact that STM has already announced plans to team up with Global Foundries to build a new 300mm fab next to their existing fab line in Crolles, France in June 2022 makes me even more suspicious. Information on that existing 300mm Crolles fab is sketchy, and I know that for a long time it was a pilot rather than a production line, and I can see no evidence that it was ever expanded to volume production.
The fact that they plan to set set up a fab, a display fab, and a slice-and-dice packaging facility suggest a certain lack of focus. Flat Panel Display (FPD) fabs use familiar semiconductor steps, but the machines are very different because the substrates are different, and Samsung has huge dedicated display fabs. It’s setting up a modern chip fabrication plant that’s the difficult part, and while this combination could probably put together a solid trailing edge fab, like Bosch’s new 65nm fab. But that only cost $1.2B. Maybe they plan to build something in the 20-10nm range.
“The plant will begin production in two years.” Yeah, that’s not happening. Even giant players like TSMC and Intel generally take 2.5-3 years to stand up a new fab from breaking ground to starting up the line.
This could still happen, but the details are very sketchy. The slice and dice operation could be set up without too much difficulty, but it’s a low volume, low tech spinoff operation. A display fab would be more difficult, but it’s doable, though again, probably not in two years. But a real 300mm wafer, sub-65mn node microchip fabrication plant in India? I don’t see this set of players carrying that off well in three years. Five sounds more realistic, and that’s assuming the deal doesn’t fall apart.
Other India semiconductor plays sound even more nebulous.
Taiwan’s TSMC is also looking to set up a chip-fabricating factory in India, and is currently speaking to various government agencies to check the viability of setting up factory in India. TSMC already has one of its largest offices outside of Taiwan in India in Bengaluru, Karnataka, from where it provides support to its’ existing customers in Asia, Europe and North America and supports and encourages fabless companies in India in design and growth.
Ever since news N Chandrasekaran – chairman of the Tata group, announced that Tata Electronics (TEPL) will set up an Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT) facility in India, there has a been a lot of speculation, according to which, TSMC and Tata may enter into a partnership.
Besides TSMC, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation, a Taiwanese chipmaker, is also in exploratory negotiations with several Indian companies to help establish new chip operations in the country, as per a report by Taipei Times. According to the newspaper, the memory chip maker’s announcement put an end to six months of speculation that it was planning to invest in India to diversify its operations despite Taiwan’s rising geopolitical tensions.
“Speaking to,” “exploring plans,” etc. These are very wishy-washy terms. Powerchip is a memory manufacturer that’s hardly flush with cash. I’m sure TSMC is talking to a lot of countries about fabs, but their newest one is under construction in Arizona.
International Semiconductor Consortium (ISMC), a joint venture between UAE’s Next Orbit Ventures and Israel’s Tower Semiconductor, was supposed to spend $3 billion to get started on a 40-65nm analog fab right about now, but I don’t see signs that’s actually happened. Tower is a real foundry, and the $3 billion pricetag and 4-5 year timeline seems realistic, but I’m not 100% sure they’re still interested in the project after Intel announced plans to buy them about a year ago. And having to bring in Arab petrostate funding for your venture is seldom a sign of strong financial viability.
There’s no reason you can’t build one or more modern fabs in India, but so far no major chip manufacturer has chosen to do so, despite the supposed availability of $10 billion in government subsidies.
One-Party Democratic California is so desperate for cash they want to tax people for leaving.
Desperate to stem the stampede of cash cows — affluent residents — out of their state, they are trying to pass an exit tax for households with assets of $50 million or more. Current residents would have to keep paying for years after they have decamped to less hostile states.
Heaven forbid that these legislators should instead come to terms with the reasons so many productive residents flee or what they could do to make their state a more attractive destination for people and businesses. They aren’t much concerned with that, merely with stopping the flight of all that revenue. If they cared about the livelihoods of the people leaving, they probably would have governed in a way that didn’t prompt people to head for the exits.
This is probably unconstitutional nine ways to Sunday. Wealth tax, Ex-Post Facto law, taxation without representation, etc. It’s also likely to be counterproductive, as rich people are not only likely to leave the state preemptively to avoid being subject to it, but are exactly the people that can hire top-notch lawyers to get it overturned.
Louis Rossmann, who recently fled New York City to Austin, has additional thoughts:
Due to issues of politics, congestion, or just plain corruption, nations get the bright idea to build brand new capital cities far away from existing urban areas. Sometimes it works out (as with Washington D.C.), and sometimes it doesn’t. China’s Xi Jinping is trying something different with Xiongan, which is being built not so much a replacement to Beijing but as sort of “mini-me” Beijing to relieve overcrowding by offloading functions to the new built-from-scratch city in Hebei* province.
About 60 miles south of the center of Beijing, a new city is being built as a showcase of high-tech ecologically friendly development. Its massive high-speed rail station and “city brain” data center have been heralded by Chinese state media as evidence of the speed and superiority of China’s growth model—not least because the city is a “signature initiative” of Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Commies (and their American fans) do love their high speed rail projects. Never mind that high speed rail in China has mostly been a trillion dollar, money losing sinkhole.
Xiongan New Area is also a test for whether China can boost domestic innovation and climb into the ranks of advanced nations in the face of slowing economic growth and efforts by the United States and others to restrict its access to advanced technology.
Xiongan offers a window into what Xi’s vision of state-led innovation looks like on the ground. Xi has called the city his “personal initiative” and a qiannian daji, or “thousand-year plan of national significance.”
You know who else had a thousand year plan?
Sorry, I just can’t resist a good Hitler meme when you pitch a slow ball right over the center of the plate…
The plan for Xiongan, which was formally unveiled in 2017 to relieve pressure on Beijing and promote the “coordinated regional development” of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, has faced financial struggles due to the huge investment costs—even more of a problem given China’s mounting real estate crisis. Overall, the new area encompasses about 650 square miles, with a planned population of around 3 million; currently, the three counties comprising the zone have around 1.4 million long-term residents. As of September 2022, 400 billion yuan (about $57 billion) in completed investment had been reported in the city overall.
While Xi has stacked the new Politburo Standing Committee with officials loyal to him, he has also elevated those with strong science and engineering backgrounds. In his speech at the 20th Party Congress last October, Xi declared that “innovation will remain at the heart of China’s modernization drive” and that China has “worked hard to promote high-quality development and pushed to foster a new pattern of development.” Nevertheless, a confluence of factors including COVID-19 lockdowns and trade tensions is contributing to overall slower growth in China.
In Xi’s vision, however, party control is not a hindrance to innovation. Rather, Xi’s vision of innovation is one in which the state and party play a leading role. Xi has led a crackdown on private technology firms such as Alibaba but has also promoted policies, such as his Made in China 2025, that aim to boost research-and-development spending and subsidies to give Chinese firms competitive advantages in industries including biotechnology, robotics, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors.
We know from experience that this approach almost never works, because the profit motive of capitalism is always a superior discovery mechanism for innovation than top-down bureaucratic mandates. We know that the state-led approach has already been a colossal failure for semiconductors even before the sanctions came down, and it’s a good bet that it’s been just as colossal a failure in all the other areas mentioned.
Xi’s policies favor “hard tech” over software-based platform app companies. The first party secretary of Xiongan was Chen Gang, who oversaw Beijing’s Zhongguancun high-tech park before being transferred to Guizhou, where under Xi ally Chen Miner he helped turn the southwestern province into a center of big data and cloud computing.
The approach to innovation in Xiongan involves embedding technology within the fabric of the city as well as innovation processes within the party-state. Xiongan Group was created as the investment vehicle for the area’s overall development, under the control of Hebei province but backed partially by loans from China Development Bank. The first central state-owned enterprises to begin construction of offices in the new area were China Satellite Communications Co., the energy giant China Huaneng Group, and Sinochem Holdings. Others now include the big three telecoms and China State Grid, as well as China Mineral Resources Group, a conglomerate set up last year to centralize China’s coal mining industry. These state-owned enterprises could use Xiongan as a test bed for new technologies. Research institutes and satellite branches of several Beijing universities are planning to open in the area around 2025. The relocation of these major units and their thousands of employees will determine how quickly Xiongan’s development proceeds.
Even as China’s economy has slowed during COVID-19 lockdowns and the global downturn, construction of the first phase of Xiongan has marched on: A huge high-speed rail station to connect the city with Beijing opened in 2020, followed by residential slabs, massive underground utility corridors, and the city brain data center, which will serve as the nerve center of the city’s digital systems. The first section, Rongdong, has been mostly completed, with housing for 170,000 people. Media reports of new schools opening show the effort to build high-quality public amenities to attract residents to the city: Branches of Beijing institutions such as Shijia Primary School and Tsinghua University High School are among the new educational institutions being built in Xiongan.
The Foreign Policy piece is OK as a sort of sanitized, high level overview, but lacks several key words (“shoddy,” “rotten,” “unsafe,” “tofu dregs,” etc.) that reflect the grittier reality of Xi Jinping’s dream:
Takeaways:
It’s hard to find on Google maps, but I think this spot shows the same cookie cutter buildings seen in the video.
Ghost city, tofu dregs, rotten tail; parts of Xiongan seem to check all three boxes.
*Note: Hebei Province is completely different from Hubei Province further south…
More Flu Manchu madness, DeSantis continues to drive the woke before him, and a guinea pig mystery. Plus: Monorail! It’s the Friday LinkSwarm!
The true character and scope of the harm caused by the unprecedented mass vaccinations for COVID-19 is just now beginning to become clear. Leading scientific journals have finally begun publishing data corroborating what the underground research community has observed over the last two years, especially in relation to complex problems of immune suppression.
Truly concerning numbers pertaining to both births and mortality are also emerging.
At this moment in time, a new, allegedly super-infectious Omicron variant is all over the headlines. A sub-variant of XXB, this strain is said to possess immune escape capabilities of precisely the type that some independent researchers predicted would follow on the heels of the mass vaccinations’ narrow antigenic fixation.
The WHO maintains that worldwide, 10,000 people still die due to Covid every single day, an implausible death toll more than ten times that of an average flu. It reiterates the urgent need for vaccinations, especially in light of China’s reopening and allegedly falsified data on mortality and infections.
The EU has even called an emergency summit in light of the purported Chinese “Covid chaos” that “calls to mind how everything began in Wuhan, three years ago”.
In Sweden, the Minister for Health and Social Affairs has said he cannot rule out new restrictions, and states that everyone must take “their three doses”, since “only” 85% of the population is ‘fully inoculated’.
That such an extensive vaccine coverage has not yielded better results after nearly two years is a remarkable fact. Even more so in light of some individuals receiving four or more repeated exposures to the same vaccine antigen, yet still contracting the disease they are supposedly immunised against.
At the same time, even more ominous warning signs abound.
One such warning sign is the fact that average mortality in many Western states is still at a remarkably high level, in spite of the direct effects of the coronavirus being marginal for more than a year. Data from EuroMOMO indicate a marked excess mortality in the EU for all of 2022, and the German Bureau of Statistics reports that the country’s mortality in October was more than 19% over the median value of the preceding years.
Is this due to Covid, as the WHO’s ’10 000 per day’ figure would seem to indicate?
Blame is placed at the feet of ‘Long Covid‘ as well as the regular acute infections, but according to the EuroMOMO and Our World in Data stats, the bulk of the excess deaths in Europe during 2022 are actually not due to clinically manifest coronavirus infections.
Moreover, we shouldn’t see continued excess deaths from a respiratory virus of this kind after three years of global exposure due to the inevitable consolidation of natural immunity.
If such a situation persists, the hypothetical connection to a vaccine-related immunity suppression that just now has come into focus becomes pertinent to investigate in detail.
If, as has been argued, the vaccinations, and especially the boosters, alter the immune profile of recipients such that Covid infections get ‘tolerated’ by the immune system, it’s possible that vaccinated individuals will tend towards a situation of long-term, repeat infections that do not get cleared, and do not present with obvious symptoms, while still promoting systemic damage.
The literature now indicates an extensive substitution in the vaccinated of virus-neutralising antibodies for non-inflammatory ones, a ‘class switch’ from antibodies that work towards clearing the virus from our system, to a category of antibodies whose purpose is to desensitise us to irritants and allergens.
The net effect is that the inflammatory response to Covid infection gets down-regulated (reduced). This means that full-blown infections will present with milder symptoms, and that they won’t get cleared as effectively (partly since fever and inflammation are essential to your body getting rid of a pathogen).
That these developments alone aren’t cause for an immediate halt to the mass vaccinations, as well as thorough investigations, is astonishing.
There is of course another, and more well-known, potential partial explanation of the surprising excess mortality. We have indications of clotting disorders connected to the Covid vaccines, evident in a new major Nordic study, while repeated studies evidence a clear correlation between heart disease and Covid vaccination (see Le Vu et al., Karlstad et al. and Patone et al.).
A newly published Thai study moreover indicated that almost a third of the vaccinated youth enrolled exhibited cardiovascular manifestations, and a yet unpublished Swiss study suggests that as many as 3% of everyone vaccinated manifest heart muscle damage.
(Hat tip: Ann Althouse.)
Why the water bill is so high..😅 pic.twitter.com/v1kQ0eg4vA
— 𝕐o̴g̴ (@Yoda4ever) December 31, 2022
(Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ)
As George Soros-backed leftwing Democrats started capturing District Attorney offices across the country, a dangerous soft-on-crime ethos has taken hold in many blue-controlled cities. Prosecutors are letting violent felons back on the streets for minimal bond, no bond, or even failing to charge them entirely. Just this week comes news that Harris County Democratic Judge Josh Hill let a convicted felon accused of kidnapping, beating, and choking a woman out on $2 bail.
The Texas Republican majority in the statehouse has had enough.
In his victory speech on the first day of the Legislative session, Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan (R-Beaumont) said that “rogue district attorneys” who refuse to prosecute certain criminal offenses must be “rein[ed] in.” Legislation filed this week provides an initial glimpse at Texas Republicans’ plan to do that.
“Carte blanche public pronouncements by district attorneys that laws we have on the books will be ignored renders the authority of the Legislature to determine what is and isn’t a crime, moot,” state Rep. David Cook (R-Mansfield) said in a statement provided to The Texan. “It is my intention to rein in renegade district attorneys and ensure the rule of law is respected in Texas.”
Cook’s House Bill (HB) 1350 — with an identical version filed in the Senate by Sen. Tan Parker (R-Flower Mound) — would forbid district or county attorneys with criminal jurisdiction to “adopt or enforce a policy under which the prosecuting attorney prohibits or materially limits the enforcement of any criminal offense … [or] as demonstrated by pattern or practice, prohibit or materially limit the enforcement of any criminal offense.”
Enforcement of the law would be granted to the Office of the Attorney General, and violators may face civil penalties up to $1,500 for an initial offense and then up to $25,500 for ensuing ones. Offending prosecutors may also be removed from office and their replacement would be appointed by the governor.
Prosecutors and judges have a certain amount of discretion on when and what crimes to charge suspects with. But by ignoring the law entirely for far-left ideological reasons, Soros-backed DAs and judges are violating the equal protection rights of Texas citizens who are victimized by soaring crime. Securing the life, liberty and property of its citizens is the most basic and essential function of government.
If they can’t do their job, they need to be removed from office.
One huge advantage Texas has over one-party Democrat-rule states is the salutary habit of running budget surpluses year after year after year. (Or, to be technically correct (“the best kind of correct!”), biennium after biennium after biennium.)
Now Comptroller Glenn Hegar has officially forecast that the Texas budget for 2024-2025 (the one the legislature will pass in the just-started legislative session) will be a $32.7 Billion surplus.
The historic Texas budget surplus estimate has grown even larger as Comptroller Glenn Hegar announced a $5 billion increase in an updated Biennial Revenue Estimate (BRE) on Monday.
The Texas Legislature convenes for the first day of its 88th Regular Session on Tuesday and now appears to have at its disposal $32.7 billion — a sum that has more than its fair share of stipulations and restrictions. Hegar’s July 2021 projection pegged the number at $27 billion.
“Even with constitutional spending limits and an inflation-influenced new normal, the enormous amount of projected revenue gives the state a remarkable, or a truly ‘once-in-a-lifetime,’ opportunity for historical actions this legislative session,” Hegar said, presenting the BRE Monday.
Tempering reactions, he added, “Don’t count on me announcing another big revenue jump two years from now.”
“The revenue increases that we’ve seen have been in many ways unprecedented and we cannot reasonably expect a repeat. We are unlikely to have an opportunity like this again.”
Overall, the comptroller estimates $188 billion available in general-purpose spending for the 2024-2025 budget, a 26 percent increase from the current biennium. The state will also receive an estimated $176 billion in federal dollars and other revenues that are non-discretionary, earmarked already with specific purposes.
Over half of the general revenue-related funds come from sales taxes and 13.2 percent from oil and gas severance taxes. Due to the high oil and gas prices over the last year, severance tax collections rose 116 percent in 2022; the average annual increase from 1996 to 2021 was just 7.5 percent.
Without new appropriations, Hegar estimates the Economic Stabilization Fund to reach a balance of $27.1 billion, slightly constrained by a constitutional limit.
Texas has had a Republican trifecta (House, Senate and Governor’s mansion) for two decades, and in that time it has followed the budget maxim of former governor Rick Perry: “Don’t spend all the money!” Conservative governance, free market policies, low taxes and fiscal prudence have all combined to keep the economy growing even in difficult times, a record few Democratic-dominated states even remotely approach.
The Texas Public Policy Foundation has more thoughts on how Texas government can reduce the Texas tax burden even further.