Archive for the ‘video’ Category

Switchbladeapalooza

Thursday, April 28th, 2022

Sometimes serendipity writes your blog post for you. I literally had just finished watching this video about U.S. Switchblade drones being sent to Ukraine when an NRO article on the same topic showed up in my in-box.

It’s an interesting video, but the title is false advertising, as it says nothing about how effective the drones are against helicopters.

Basically there are two variants of the Switchblade drone:

  • The Switchblade 300: Range 10 km, Endurance 15 min, Weight 5.5 lb (2.5 kg), Speed Cruise: 63 MPH, Dash: 100 MPH and it fits inside rucksack (includes payload, launcher, transport bag), launches from a tube like a knee-mortar, cost of $6,000.
  • The Switchblade 600, a much larger loitering drone designed for harder targets (including armor) with a 1.8 meter launch tube:

    Switchblade 600 represents the next generation of extended-range loitering missiles, delivering unprecedented RSTA support and featuring high-precision optics, over 40 minutes of loitering endurance, and an anti-armor warhead for engaging larger, hardened targets at greater distances.

    As an all-in-one, man-portable solution, Switchblade 600 includes everything required to successfully plan and execute missions and can be set up and operational in less than 10 minutes. Equipped with class-leading, high-resolution EO/IR gimbaled sensors and advanced precision flight control, Switchblade 600 empowers the warfighter with quick and easy deployment via tube-launch, and the capability to fly, track and engage non-line-of-sight targets and armored vehicles with precision lethal effects without the need for external ISR or fires assets.

    Patented wave-off and recommit capability allows operators to abort the mission at any time and then re-engage either the same or other targets multiple times based on operator command.

    Whether it’s from fixed defensive positions, combat vehicles with integrated organic precision fire, or air-launched applications, Switchblade 600 provides field commanders with a multi-mission loitering missile system capable of multi-domain operations.

  • No cost given for the Switchblade 600, but reportedly lower than the Javelin’s $250,000, and it has much greater range.

    Both are suicide drones, diving into their targets.

    The drones are manufactured by AeroVironment, whose CEO fled from the Soviets as a child.

    When he was a young teenager, Wahid Nawabi would go to the roof of his family’s home in Kabul and watch the Soviet helicopters flying in the distance.

    For most of his childhood, Afghanistan had been peaceful and increasingly prosperous. But that all changed after the nation’s democratic government was overthrown by Marxist military officers in 1978 in the Saur Revolution. In December 1979, the Soviet troops invaded, plunging the country into what has become 40 years of war, violence, and instability.

    In 1982, Nawabi and his family fled. Nawabi, then only 14, led his three younger sisters on a harrowing 48-day journey to escape the war-torn country to reunite with their parents in India.

    Because of that experience, Nawabi said he feels a personal connection with the more than 5 million refugees who have fled Ukraine in the wake of this latest Russian invasion. Now as an American and as the chief executive of AeroVironment, a leading provider of military-grade fighter drones, Nawabi said he has a moral obligation to aid the Ukrainian defense effort.

    “We need to help the Ukrainians get their freedom back,” Nawabi told National Review. “I’ve gone through that experience. It’s heart-wrenching for me.”

    Last month, the U.S. government sent 100 of AeroVironment’s Switchblade drones to the Ukrainians, part of a massive weapons package. Switchblades have been described as “kamikaze drones,” because after they lock on to their target, they fly in and explode. The Switchblade 600, which can fly for more than 40 minutes with a 25-mile range, is designed to take down tanks and other armored vehicles. The smaller Switchblade 300, which weighs less than six pounds and can be carried in a backpack, is meant for smaller targets.

    He’s also donated 100 Quantix reconnaissance drones to Ukraine.

    This also gives me an excuse to link this other NRO piece on how drones are changing warfare.

    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shown the world drones’ power to change the way wars are fought. America should take note.

    The most unlikely hero of the war in Ukraine has been a drone — or, to use the Pentagon’s preferred term, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB-2, a medium-altitude, long-endurance drone that’s 21 feet long with a 39-foot wingspan, can stay aloft for 24 hours at a stretch. It also carries a lethal punch: a “smart” munition that has been taking out Russian armored and supply columns and helping to grind the Russian ground offensive to a halt.

    Meanwhile, civilian clubs of Ukrainian drone enthusiasts have weaponized their much smaller, commercially made drones — including Chinese-made DJI machines — by flying them above ridgelines and buildings to conduct reconnaissance on enemy units and send the information back to Ukrainian artillery units and other commanders. According to the Independent, Ukrainian officers have even been traveling to Poland to learn how to do the same thing with their military UAVs.

    In short, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is showing the world how drones will change the way wars are fought going forward. The question now is: Will our military realize that UAVs as the airpower weapon of the future, or will the lessons of Ukraine be pushed aside and forgotten?

    A lot of U.S. military organizations are getting into drones in a big way, so I’m betting more the former than the latter.

    There’s a related issue that needs to be confronted first, however. Why are the Ukrainians relying on drones made in Turkey and China instead of American drones? It’s true that we are planning to provide Ukraine with Switchblade “kamikaze” drones, which are small enough to be carried in a backpack and explode when they hit their target, and training a small number of Ukrainians to use them. But there’s much more in the way of drones that the U.S. could be offering Ukraine, and the fact that we are not explains why we’re still behind in realizing the potential of UAVs as an airpower weapon.

    First, our ability to export our best and most valuable drones — e.g., the General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper or the Northrop Grumman Global Hawk — is hampered by an international agreement known as the Missile Technology Control Regime, which unaccountably treats unmanned-aircraft technology like ballistic-missile technology. I have written before about how this treaty limits U.S. exports even to allies such as the UAE, who as a result have to rely on Chinese-made UAVs instead.

    Second, there is an association in the minds of voters and policy-makers between drones and the war on terror, which has limited the leeway Pentagon strategists have to embrace the full potential of these revolutionary and disruptive weapons. For example, right now the Air Force is planning to retire an entire fleet of one of our best long-range intelligence-gathering tools, the RQ-4 Global Hawk Block 30 remotely piloted surveillance aircraft, most of which are under ten years old and still in very serviceable shape. The stated reason for their retirement is that they can be shot down by highly advanced anti-ballistic-missile systems. But by flying at altitudes where they are less vulnerable to those systems, they could still serve as the bedrock of an extended intelligence-sharing network, allowing the U.S. and its allies to keep watch over the Black Sea, Iran, the Taiwan Straits, the South China Sea, and North Korea. They could even be shared with our NATO allies and Ukraine through a lend–lease agreement designed to create such a network.

    In the future, squadrons of armed UAVs have the potential to be used for close air support and full-scale air campaigns against enemy ground forces on a much larger scale than they have been in Ukraine — and for airborne ballistic-missile defense. But right now, NATO should be flying large U.S.-made and fully weaponized UAVs such as the Reaper from Poland into Ukraine and handing the controls over to the Ukrainians.

    There’s no question that drones are going to be a big part of future warfare, not least because a drone is a lot cheaper than a tank, a helicopter or a fighter aircraft. I would imagine that in 20-30 years, we’re going to see AI-driven autonomous drone swarms unleashed in a combat area to wreck havoc on enemy units. It takes a while for armies to find the proper middle ground between “We can use planes to drop oats to the horses” and Wild Billy Mitchell’s “Airpower will overwhelm all other military units” advocacy.

    The Russo-Ukranian war is giving an awful lot of militaries chances to test out their theories of drone warfare in real combat conditions.

    Why Are Russia’s Arms Sucking So Badly?

    Saturday, April 23rd, 2022

    So why is Russian miltech performing so badly in Ukraine? In addition to some of the reasons we’ve already covered, this video provides additional answers (skip to 1:35 in to avoid the sponsor blather).

  • Russia has 2.5 to 3 million people in arms manufacturing, “20% of the country’s industrial jobs.”
  • “We all thought Russia had the military muscle to be able to take over Ukraine in a matter of days. However, the real way to test a country’s military power is not in a parade but a war. And with the invasion of Ukraine we are seeing something that has become the norm in the Russian economy. Something like an Expectation vs Reality meme.”
  • 60% failure rate for some Russian missiles?
  • “After a month of the Ukraine invasion, we can say it clearly: Russian armament falls far behind the expectations and hype they had created.”
  • Modernization of the armed forces was supposedly a priority for Putin, with up to 5% of GDP spent on defense.
  • Russia should theoretically have military equipment better than anyone but the U.S.
  • One reason they don’t: Attempted capitalism without privately owned arms companies.
  • “The Soviet military industry was full of unprofitable State enterprises, obsolete factories and, above all, a great deal of corruption.”
  • The U.S. bids out contracts. The Soviets depended on state monopolies.
  • “Russia has never embraced free market capitalism.”
  • According to Vladimir Putin, the problem with communism was not the centralized economy but an economy based on ideological principles. In other words, if you want to improve the efficiency of the system, it is enough to change the managers and put technocrats in charge. Technocrats who have been forged in the bosom of the KGB and who have a pragmatic mentality, totally free of the romanticism of communism or any other ideology. This type of person has a name: “SILOVIKI”. And so, just what was Putin’s formula for bringing his military industry into the 21st century? Very simple: To put Silovikis in all managerial positions. This is how Rostec was conceived in 2007, a conglomerate of companies designed to be the great umbrella of Russian defense. Under this umbrella are more than 700 armaments companies: all of them State-owned. By grouping companies together, a lot of duplication can be eliminated. All following purely technocratic criteria. And who is the CEO of Rostec? None other than Sergey Chemezov, who was a colleague of Vladimir Putin himself when they were both in the KGB offices in East Germany. In other words, a textbook SILOVIKI.

    Yes, in this, as in many other areas, Putin is a complete dumbass.

  • “By acquiring more and more companies, Rostec has ended up consolidating even more monopolies. For example: fighter jets. The United States works with four major manufacturers: Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and Airbus (Yes, Airbus is European but it also has contracts with Washington). In the case of Russia, practically all fighter jets are manufactured by the same company: UAC which, of course, is under the umbrella of Rostec.”
  • “Another major Russian defense company is Almaz-Antey. This company does not depend on Rostec but is directly owned by the Russian Ministry of Finance. The CEO of this company is another textbook Siloviki. In this case we are talking about Viktor Ivanov, another former KGB agent. Almaz-Antey is the giant where NPO Novator, the manufacturer of almost all Russian precision missiles, is located. Yes, those very missiles that are proving to be so flawed in the invasion of Ukraine.” Try to contain your shock.
  • “In 2017, NPO Novator could only produce 60 Kalibr missiles in six months. As you can imagine, these figures are ridiculous if we take into account that, in just one month of war, Russia has launched more than 1,200 missiles.”
  • I know you’ll also be shocked to learn that Yevgeny Prigoshin, another friend of Putin’s, was in charged of the company responsible for providing expired food to Russian troops. “As Alexei Navalny reported, Prigozhin dodged all public tender systems to become the army’s caterer. Today, Navalny is in jail and Russian soldiers are receiving expired cans of food.”
  • Russia hasn’t achieved air supremacy because Russia doesn’t have enough precision munitions for its planes to use, which is why they do stupid things like hit hospitals with dumb bombs and fly low enough to be shot down. “Russia’s best planes are dropping like flies because they don’t have adequate ammunition.”
  • “Are you really saying that the Russians are stupid and have gone to war without ammunition? Well, no: the problem is not that the Russians are stupid. The problem is that a political system with bad incentives generates nothing but failure.”
  • In closing, he wonders just how well-maintained those nuclear weapons and ICBMs are.
  • All this accords with what we have observed in Russia’s operation failures, and with what we know about the basic incompetence and economic misallocation of command economies.

    (Sorry about the delay in getting this up. BlueHost was down earlier today.)

    Our Stupid World: Fake Cop Home Invader Edition

    Monday, April 18th, 2022

    Another “Play Stupid Games, Win Stupid Prizes” entry, but with a twist. A man killed home invader who was pretending to be a cop.

    A man with a badge around his neck didn’t fool a Pa. resident with a gun in his pocket. The resident, who was bound by zip ties, managed to grab his gun and opened fire on two home invaders posing as cops, killing one of them, police tell 6ABC.

    It happened around 10 p.m. Sunday in Philly, where police say a 25-year-old resident was confronted outside his home by two men posing as cops. The man with a badge around his neck forced the male resident inside the home, where he was bound with zip ties.

    The fake cops were demanding money and threatening his life. But the resident was able to get his pocketed gun, and he shot the man with the badge three times, killing him, police said. The dead suspect had gunshot wounds to his head, neck and arm.

    The are some pretty big giveaways that it wasn’t real cops:

  • Real cops tends to use handcuffs rather than zip-ties. (There are occasionally exceptions, mostly during widespread civil disorder like mass arrests during riots.)
  • A real cop would have search him for a weapon.
  • A real cop wouldn’t be demanding money. Or I should say a real, non-corrupt. Offer void in New York City in the 1970s.
  • Under Soros-backed District Attorney Larry Krasner, Philadelphia now has the highest per capita homicide rate among the 10 largest cities in the U.S.

    Q: Can You Double-Pattern Rather Than Use EUV? A: You Don’t Want To

    Sunday, April 10th, 2022

    This is going to be pretty esoteric for many of my readers, but in previous semiconductor posts covering ASML, some commenters have suggested that fabs can do multi-patterning for smaller nodes rather than having to use ASML’s extreme ultraviolet stepper. The following video explains why, below a certain threshold, no, you really can’t.

    I’m not going to summarize every point, but the largest takeaway is that multi-patterning is computationally prohibitive. Double-patterning splits a single mask into two masks, each of which only create half of the mask pattern on the die. Double-patterning was fine for a while, but triple patterning and self-aligned double-patterning start making finding optimal solutions to the mask splitting problem exponentially more difficult.

    Take a square. A square has four nodes in it. With double patterning, each of the two masks handle opposing sides of the square. And with this four-node shape, there are two double patterning options available for coloring. The EDA software thus has to check through them for design rule violations and whatnot. With triple patterning, the number of variations explodes exponentially. For that same square four node structure, triple patterning has 18 variations rather than just two with double patterning. A five node structure, 30. And so on. A semiconductor design can have hundreds of different nodes and design variations. The software needs to check through at least a good portion of these. This problem is not solvable in polynomial time. In other words, for you computer science nerds out there, it is an NP complete problem.

    And then there’s the cost. “Depending on whose cost model you consult, [10nm]’s triple patterning makes its lithography module 3.85x higher than [28nm].” And the non-EUV 7nm node required triple-patterning and something called “self-aligned quadruple patterning.” And on Intel: “Brian Krzanich has said that in certain cases the company needs to use quad (4x), penta (5x), or hexa (6x) patterning for select features, as they need to expose the wafer up to six times to “draw” one feature. I am not super surprised that it wouldn’t yield. No wonder GlobalFoundries ditched their 7nm node.”

    And this summary glosses over big differences between different fab technologies on different companies. TSMC’s 7nm isn’t the same as Intel’s 7nm.

    Anyway, all this goes a long way to explain: Multi-patterning is much more painful than simply ponying up the cost for an ASML EUV stepper. And if you want to do 6nm, you have to use EUV.

    Russia Reorients

    Friday, April 8th, 2022

    Just because Russia is obviously retreating from Kiev due to getting mauled doesn’t mean there isn’t some truth in the argument that their biggest aims lie in eastern Ukraine. This video suggest three main remaining goals for Russian forces:

  • Restore and control the flow of water to Crimea (Ukraine dammed up the Dinappa river following the seizure of Crimea, which has put them in a world of hurt).
  • Gain control of “the Yokosuka Gas Field, which was discovered in 2010 and it has about 42 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, that could threaten Russia’s oil dominance in the region.”
  • Controlling all Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.
  • More details on each in the video.

    If they can achieve those goals, if Russia can achieve capturing those three goals they will have landlocked and absolutely wrecked Ukraine’s entire economy. So when they say that the main war is in the east, they’re actually, on some level, telling the truth. The problem for Russia, though, is that without having captured Kiev their chances of holding on to those objectives is greatly reduced.

    (Between getting my house cleaned, relatives visiting (Yes, those two are related), and tax season, no time to put up a LinkSwarm today. Tomorrow is not looking good either…)

    Is The Army Finally Ready To Pull The Trigger On 6.8mm TVCM?

    Saturday, April 2nd, 2022

    The light recoil of the 5.56 NATO round has helped make AR-pattern rifles a favorite of the civilian market, but the military has been looking for a rifle round with more punch for a while. Now they’re evidently moving forward with the replacement:

    Buried deep within the DoD FY23 budget request by weapon system, the US Army has officially chosen the contractor(s) for the Next Generation Squad Weapons (NGSW) program.

    NGSW is a prototyping effort by the Army that consists of a new rifle (NGSW-R) and automatic rifle (NGSW-AR), chambered in a new high tech 6.8mm cartridge, set to replace the aging M16, M4A1 Carbines and the M249 Squad Automatic Weapon, chambered in a 5.56 NATO round.

    The NGSW has been in competitive prototyping testing with three defense firms, including SIG Sauer, General Dynamics – OTS, and Textron Systems.

    On page 53/106 of the budget request, the Army expects to procure 29,046 NGSWs in 2023.

    “Starts funding for the procurement and fielding of 1,704 NGSW-AR, which is the planned replacement for the M249 Squad Automatic Weapon (SAW) within the Close Combat Force; Procurement and fielding of 15,348 NGSW-R which is the planned replacement for the M4A1 Carbine within the Close Combat Force; and procurement and fielding of 11,994 Next Generation Squad Weapons Fire Controls,” the document read.

    If I’m reading that correctly, the “new high tech 6.8mm cartridge” would be the 6.8mm TVCM, which uses a polymer case rather than brass.

    Supposedly the round is compatible with a wide range of current weapon platforms with just a barrel swap.

    The hybrid polymer-cased cartridge, developed by Texas-based True Velocity as part of the Army’s Next Generation Squad Weapon program, is compatible with legacy firearms as well.

    The 6.8mm TVCM composite case design, coupled with the Army’s 6.8mm (.277-caliber) common cartridge projectile, was originally developed and optimized for use in the NGSW-Rifle and NGSW-Automatic Rifle submissions submitted to that military program by General Dynamics-OTS.

    However, using what True Velocity characterizes as a “switch barrel” capability, they have demonstrated it can work with much of the Army’s currently fielded small arms including the M240B belt-fed machine gun, the M110 semi-automatic sniper system, and the M134 minigun.

    Here’s a video of test-firing the ammo in an Assault Machine Gun.

    Next Generation Squad Weapon will also be using an on-weapon ballistic computer integrated into the optics:

    “The new optic has a integrated laser range finder, wind sensor, temperature gauge, elevation sensor, and ballistic computer all rolled into one.” That is likely to be a huge boost to troop capabilities, assuming it works as planned. Like any piece of technology, expect a shakedown phase where they work out all the bugs.

    True Velocity hails from Garland, so mark that down as another win for Texas.

    If there’s a downside for the civilian market, I’m pretty sure polymer ammo is not reloadable, and certainly not with current reloading presses. On the plus side, if the army makes a big move to 6.8mm TVCM, maybe 5.56 NATO ammo will come down in price…

    Why Russian Technology Is Screwed

    Tuesday, March 29th, 2022

    Welcome to another in the continuing “Why Russia’s X Is Screwed” series! It seems that Russia’s technological infrastructure is even more screwed than their airline industry.

    Some takeaways:

  • If the sanctions are maintained, they will “almost certainly cause the collapse of Russia’s economy on short notice, and will set the country’s technological progress back by decades.”
  • Russian state entities and miltech was put in “a complete black box.”
  • “Even non-military end users were still barred from key technologies, such as semiconductors, telecommunication, encryption security, lasers, sensors, navigation, avionics and maritime technologies. Other countries from the EU to Japan and South Korea all imposed similar sanctions of their own.”
  • Even many private companies that lobbied for special carve-outs from sanctions changed their mind and suspended all business with Russia.
  • Just about every car and truck manufacturer. “95% of car parts in Russia are imported.”
  • Apple, Samsung, Dell, HP, Oracle, SAP, and Microsoft have all halted sales.
  • “Overnight, many industries in Russia are just gone.”
  • Every high tech company in Russia relies heavily on foreign inputs and expertise.
  • He talks about the embargo on semiconductors (more on this in the video below), but says that it applies even to chips made with embargoed tech. So if SMIC used an Applied Materials PVD machine, those chips couldn’t legally be shipped to Russia. I am skeptical this is actually the case (and it would be very hard to enforce on Chinese companies).
  • “The Russian economy did not prepare itself for sanctions anywhere near this severe.”
  • Two-thirds of Russia’s foreign reserves of $643 billion were parked abroad, which was all frozen when sanctions came down.
  • “Every part of the Russian economy has just received major damage, and there’s no way they can pivot everything all at once.”
  • “They’re simply not survivable in the long-term.”
  • Russia has increased interest rates to 20% to keep the ruble from collapsing further.
  • Even China has slowed-down or halted loans to Russian entities.
  • Russia is going to run out of cash “in a few weeks to a few months.”
  • Russia is heavily reliant on foreign tech, but for most tech companies, Russia is a minor market.
  • Expect a brain drain as wealthy and skilled Russians lose their jobs, then move abroad.
  • Many national industries simply cannot exist without foreign inputs. Substitutes would take years, if not decades.
  • Conclusion:

    If these sanctions continue, there will be no economy left to support the Russian military. Russian technological progress will be thrown back by years, if not decades, across the board. And in just a couple of weeks, or maybe months, the vultures will start circling, and they will start picking off every interesting
    Russian asset, every interesting Russian employee, oil fields, anything that they can get their hands on. And they’ll start transporting that out of the country as well. I cannot believe that Putin started a war expecting any sanctions anywhere near this scale.

  • Now on to semiconductors:

  • TSMC halted all shipments to Russia, as has AMD and Intel.
  • The Soviet Union had a massive technology gap between it and the United States, which only got worse as time went on.
  • All the computing power in every computer in the Soviet Union in 1991 combined would fall two generations short of a single Cray.
  • “The most advanced semiconductor production facilities were in East Germany, Belarus, Ukraine, and so on.”
  • JSC Mikron is Russia’s largest semiconductor manufacturer. “Today it fabs RFID tickets, SIM cards, and other smart card products.” They did about $260 million in business in 2020 (including government subsidies). They bought IP from STMicroelectronics.
  • In 2014, Mikron announced “the successful achievement of the 65 nanometer node at a volume of 500 200mm wafers a month.” [record scratch] 500 wafer starts a month??? That’s nothing. TSMC’s top of the line fabs generally do 120,000 wafer starts a month. It’s maybe OK if you’re running weird, demanding, high profit, low-volume processes (say, Gallium-Arsenide chips for use in satellites), but not for Mikron’s main business line (RFIDs).
  • But all that is beside the point, since they didn’t have a stepper capable of doing 65 nanometer. “Fujitsu, Toshiba, and TSMC started shipping their commercial 65 nanometer nodes in 2005. So this means that Russia’s gap with the leading edge has grown from 9 years to 15+.”
  • Russia’s Angstrem offers a wafer foundry doing “130 nanometer and 90 nanometer process nodes on 200mm wafers. Their capacity is about 180,000 wafers a year.” They declared bankruptcy around 2019. They were also hit by U.S. sanctions after the Crimean invasion. Successor company NM-Tech has a pie-in-the-sky plan to do 10nm in 10 years. Don’t hold your breath.
  • (I notice he makes no mention of “Crocus Nano Electronics,” which supposedly runs Russia’s only 300mm wafer fab (“Established in 2011, Crocus Nano Electronics is the world’s first and only 300mm fabrication facility, located in Russia”), but when you get down into their press releases, it says “The development and production of Crocus Nano Electronics ReRAM memory chips were manufactured on 55 ULP CMOS by Shanghai Huali Microelectronics Corporation (HLMC).” So either they’re a fabless design house, or they only do the metal interconnects fabrication and nothing else in the process, which is so weird a model I can’t really wrap my head around it.)
  • I’m omitting the coverage of various fabless design houses, since they’re dead-in-the-water without access to decent foundry technology or foreign markets.
  • They can probably get stuff fabbed at China’s SMIC.
  • If Russia had turned into a regular country after 1991, there’s no reason they couldn’t have launched a competitive domestic tech industry. The Soviet Union had large number of frequently bloody flaws, but they didn’t stint on STIM education, and maintained very competitive space capabilities despite numerous handicaps. But instead, they turned into a corrupt oligarchy-turned-dictatorship, and all that human capital either emigrated or withered on the vine.

    And now, thanks to Vlad’s Big Ukraine Adventure, they’re even more screwed than they were before.

    Dear Joe Biden: Do You Think You Could Avoid Saying The Quiet Part Out Loud?

    Sunday, March 27th, 2022

    The world would be a better place if Vladimir Putin were out of power, even if that meant a him getting bumped off.

    I have no problem saying this. (And I strongly suspect most people in the free world believe the same thing.) You know why?

    I’m not President of the United States.

    Yeah, Sundown Joe went there. Instead of saying that Putin “cannot remain in Ukraine” he said “This man cannot remain in power.”

    Nothing like calling for regime change against an paranoid dictator of a country that possesses over 4,000 nuclear warheads.

    No wonder Biden Administration officials are frantically walking-back their ostensible boss’s bellicose sabre-rattling.

    Poor Joe. His cognitive decline is such that he can’t avoid saying the quiet part out loud.

    At least he isn’t sending out mean tweets…

    Former CIA Officer Mike Baker On Bad Intelligence And Putin

    Saturday, March 26th, 2022

    Here’s a snippet on the Russo-Ukrainian War from an interview Joe Rogan did with former CIA officer Mike Baker last week.

    Some takeaways:

  • Putin has been “pretty damn consistent over the years.”

    If you look at what he did in Chechnya, if you look at what he did helping Assad in Syria, if you look at what he did annexing Crimea, if you look at Georgia, Abkhazia, South Ossetia. Every step of the way he’s been following in his mind this stated desire, that he’s made very public over the years, to rebuild his sphere of influence.

  • We were too optimistic, thinking that he was thinking like we do in a rational process.
  • Intelligence on what Putin actually wants is hard because his inner circle keeps getting smaller and smaller.
  • Human intelligence is hard, and despite movies, blackmail or a honeytrap are rarely the most effective methods.
  • Putin was a KGB officer for 15 years, and he served in East Germany rather than the west. “He doesn’t really understand how we think.”
  • The collapse of communism 1989-1991 was a great opportunity for recruiting spies behind the iron curtain.
  • Putin thinks “You guys have disrespected me, fuck you all. I told you I want my spirit a sphere of influence, and I don’t care whether I have to break it.”
  • “He called the collapse of the Soviet Union the greatest tragedy of the 20th century, and he’s he’s serious about that, he means that.”
  • He’s cut loose some of his own inner circle over the past couple of weeks.
  • “Was he given bad intel? Or was he given intel and choose to ignore it?” Like many dictators, Putin has a “thermocline of truth” (though Baker doesn’t use that phrase) between him and any possible bad news.
  • “They were gonna get in there, maybe within 48 hours, they were going to have control of Kiev, they would be welcomed by the population in Ukraine, and they would be able to establish a puppet regime.”
  • Just How Screwed Are Russian Airlines?

    Thursday, March 24th, 2022

    The answer is: “Pretty screwed.”

    Some takeaways:

  • They’ve lost virtually all their international routes.
  • They’re basically back to Soviet-era route choices.
  • Aeroflot now has only one international flight route…into Belarus.
  • It’s not just flights to and from Russia that are affected. Lots of international flights between Europe and Asia transited now-closed Russian airspace. Flights from Helsinki to Tokyo now take three hours longer.
  • Russia has also been locked out of the Global Distribution System (GDS), which connects just about all global travel providers.
  • Middle East airlines are still flying too and from Russia, mainly Moscow. But without GDS, no one can directly book connecting flights to other Russian cities.
  • A majority of the world’s airliners are leased from an outside company. More than half of Russian airliners are leased from companies outside the country. All those are refusing to continue doing business in Russia.
  • The Cape Town Treaty governs aircraft repossession, and Russia is a signatory to the treaty.
  • But instead of following the terms of the treaty, Russia has just sanctioned the theft of those aircraft.
  • Both Boeing and Airbus have suspended all maintenance support with Russia. Without legitimate spare parts, even Russian-owned aircraft could be banned from flying internationally. And even Russian Sukhoi depends on German Lufthansa Technik for spare parts.
  • One side effect: Without outside airline ability to overfly Russian territory, Anchorage is likely to become an international hub again.
  • One possible winner: Anchorage-based startup Northern Pacific Air.