The Liberation of Iran Has Begun

Since the Islamic Republic of Iran refuses to give up its nuclear weapons program or free its own people, the liberation of Iran has begun.

The United States and Israel launched long-awaited strikes on Iran early Saturday morning, as President Trump vowed to destroy their missile capabilities, “annihilate” their navy, and ensure the nation never obtains a nuclear weapon.

Trump, in a video message released overnight that made clear the goal is regime change, urged the Iranian people to “take over your government” when the operation is finished.

“The hour of your freedom is at hand,” Trump said. “This will be, probably, your only chance for generations. . . . This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.”

America and Israel reportedly plan to carry out several days of attacks, and Trump cautioned that while the administration is taking every step to minimize risks to American personnel, “we may have casualties.”

He added, “We’re doing this for the future, and it is a noble mission.” He urged Iranian security forces to lay down their weapons in exchange for immunity, or face “certain death.”

Snip.

During his State of the Union address, Trump began to make a broader case for military action against Iran, citing, as he did in his video remarks released overnight, the regime’s attacks over the past half-century against U.S. personnel in the region.

You can only tug on Superman’s cape for so long.

The United States is calling it Operation Epic Fury, while Israel is going with Lion’s Roar.

Suchomimus has compiled footage of the strikes.

Some highlights:

  • A strike against “Supreme Leader” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s house. The Iranian woman recording the aftermath of the strike sounds “absolutely delighted.” It was hit in broad daylight, indicating how little American and Israeli fear Iran’s degraded, Russian-sourced air defense systems.
  • A salvo of at least 30 tomahawk cruise missiles launched from the Mediterranean flying over Iraq en-route to targets in Iran.
  • Iran is (naturally) launching retaliatory rockets at Israel.
  • One of the U.S./Israeli strike targets is Iranian Defense Minister Amir Hatami, who has been reported killed.
  • Second Suchomimus video:

    Highlights:

  • U.S. naval base in Bahrain hit by retaliatory Iranian missiles. “This seems like it may have been a waste of missiles because reports are saying that this base was largely cleared out prior to this. So America evacuated much of the imported equipment and troops and ships from here to a safer place. So there was nothing of importance here.” And geolocation shows that Iran might actually have hit a nearby mosque.

  • A possible successful strike in Dubai.
  • Also Iranian missiles being successfully intercepted over Abu Dhabi. Likely target was Al Dhafra Air Base, but nothing seems to have been hit there.
  • But a possible successful strike on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, though its not clear what, if anything, was hit.
  • “Two places hit by the US are Iranian naval bases Asaluyeh and Chabahar…Asaluyeh is a major target. This is known to be an underground storage complex for the Iranian Navy in which speedboats and coastal defense missiles are stored here.”
  • “Also confirmed hit was the headquarters of the IRGC, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, who are a major branch of the Iranian armed forces.” This is near Damavand, an underground complex that was reportedly hit with bunker buster bombs.
  • Israel reportedly hit Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i, head of Iran’s judiciary courts.
  • A quick LiveUAMap snapshot of in-theater action:

    President Trump’s announcement of the strikes:

  • “A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran.”
  • “Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating eminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people.”
  • “Its menacing activities directly endanger the United States, our troops, our bases overseas, and our allies throughout the world. For 47 years, the Iranian regime has chanted death to America and waged an unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder, targeting the United States, our troops, and the innocent people in many, many countries.”
  • He covers the regime’s role in the Iranian Hostage Crisis, the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing, and the 2000 attack on the USS Cole.
  • “Iranian forces killed and maimed hundreds of American service members in Iraq. The regime’s proxies have continued to launch countless attacks against American forces stationed in the Middle East in recent years, as well as US naval and commercial vessels in international shipping lands. It’s been mass terror and we’re not going to put up with it any longer.”
  • “it was Iran’s proxy Hamas that launched the monstrous October 7th attacks on Israel, slaughtering more than 1,000 innocent people, including 46 Americans, while taking 12 of our citizens hostage. It was brutal, something like the world has never seen before.”
  • “Iran is the world’s number one state sponsor of terror, and just recently killed tens of thousands of its own citizens on the street as they protested.”
  • “It has always been the policy of the United States, in particular my administration, that this terrorist regime can never have a nuclear weapon. I’ll say it again. They can never have a nuclear weapon.”
  • “They’ve rejected every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambitions, and we can’t take it anymore.”
  • “Just imagine how emboldened this regime would be if they ever had and actually were armed with nuclear weapons as a means to deliver their message.”
  • “For these reasons, the United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests.”
  • “We are going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground. It will be totally again obliterated.”
  • “We are going to annihilate their navy.”
  • “We are going to ensure that the region’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world and attack our forces and no longer use their IEDs, or roadside bombs as they are sometimes called, to so gravely wound and kill thousands and thousands of people including many Americans.”
  • “And we will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. It’s a very simple message. They will never have a nuclear weapon.”
  • “This regime will soon learn that no one should challenge the strength and might of the United States armed forces.”
  • “My administration has taken every possible step to minimize the risk to US personnel in the region. Even so, and I do not make this statement lightly, the Iranian regime seeks to kill. The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and we may have casualties. That often happens in war.”
  • “But we’re doing this not for now. We’re doing this for the future. And it is a noble mission. We pray for every service member as they selflessly risk their lives to ensure that Americans and our children will never be threatened by a nuclear armed Iran.”
  • “We ask God to protect all of our heroes in harm’s way. And we trust that, with his help, the men and women of the armed forces will prevail. We have the greatest in the world, and they will prevail.”
  • “To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces, and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity, or in the alternative, face certain death. So, lay down your arms, you will be treated fairly with total immunity, or you will face certain death.”
  • “Finally, to the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere.”
  • “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations. For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want. So let’s see how you respond.”
  • “America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.”
  • “May God bless the brave men and women of America’s armed forces. May God bless the United States of America. May God bless you all. Thank you.”
  • Possibly more later…

    Update: Unconfirmed reports out of Israel that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead. Iran denying.

    Update 2: The Taliban call on Muslims worldwide…not to support Iran.

    I don’t think many people had that on their bingo card…

    Update 3: Peter Zeihan weighs in, and we didn’t even have to wait a week:

    He says all the Iranian drone and missile facilities were hit, and that the Israelis were ones hitting Iranian leadership. But no sign they’ve hit the Shahed production facilities…yet. And no sign of attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure.

    His military sources are generally better than his political sources, but several grains of salt are usually in order anyway.

    Update 4: Power plant on Kharg Island, the terminal for the vast majority of Iran’s oil exports, hit:

    (Hat tip: Instapundit.)

    Update 5: We’re hitting Iran with clones of their own Shahed drones:

    Though presumably with better guidance systems…

    Update 6: PJMedia is reporting Ali Khamenei confirmed dead.

    Despite some initial debate, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed during the airstrikes Saturday morning, Israeli officials report.

    “Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated in an Israeli strike on Tehran, with his body found under the rubble caused by an Israeli airstrike, senior Israeli officials were informed on Saturday evening,” the Jerusalem Post reports. “Documentation of Khamenei’s body was reportedly shown to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.”

    Update 7: Suchomimus has footage of Khamenei’s flattened compound.

    Probably more on this video later. It’s Saturday and I’ve got Other Stuff that needs doing…

    Update 8: Via Stephen Green at Instapundit, some Strategery:

    Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, Greenland, Panama…it’s all interconnected and it all points to China.

    As U.S. energy ramps up, and China is deprived of subsidized oil, subsidized shipping channels, freedom of navigation through sovereign waters and allies that can cause the U.S. problems…their global position diminishes substantially and their costs of doing business skyrocket.

    Venezuela and Iran account for something like 20% of China’s oil imports and they’re getting an insane deal on it. China has a huge problem if that oil goes away.

    You’d be forgiven for thinking Trump’s foreign policy seems random and chaotic, but it’s actually one of the most focused and (thus far) well executed foreign policies in at least 2 generations.

    Update 9: Reports that Iranian drones and missiles have hit Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait. Minor injuries reported.

    Update 10: Heh x3: “Ayatollah To Give Speech As Soon As Officials Find The Rest Of His Body.”

    “Iranian Generals Kicking Themselves For Not Just Meeting Over Zoom.”

    “Mamdani Orders Flags At One World Trade Center Flown Half-Staff To Mourn Ayatollah.”

    Update 11: Khamenei death confirmed by Iran.

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    26 Responses to “The Liberation of Iran Has Begun”

    1. 10x25mm says:

      The oil price increases which will occur on Monday will have a decisive effect on the future course of the Russian-Ukrainian War.

    2. Malthus says:

      After Operation Midnight Thunder, the Supreme Leader of Iran ought to gave reached the conclusion that Trump could strike at a time of his own choosing. He played the fool, imagining that he could rely on deception, and lying–the Taqiyya strategy–to win concessions.

    3. FM says:

      One could argue the “pallets of cash” Obama administration foreign policy was “focused” and “well executed” as well, though perhaps not so much along any lines that contribute toward any U.S. national interests.

    4. Dave L. says:

      The Taliban are Sunni, and would thus regard the Shia Ayatollahs as heretics.

    5. 10x25mm says:

      “After Operation Midnight Thunder, the Supreme Leader of Iran ought to gave reached the conclusion that Trump could strike at a time of his own choosing. He played the fool, imagining that he could rely on deception, and lying–the Taqiyya strategy–to win concessions.”

      Epic Fury would not have been necessary had Midnight Thunder been even remotely as effective as you claimed. Iran’s nuclear processing equipment was cut off from the surface, but it was still intact and ready to run.

      The Iranians started digging a month ago and Epic Fury became necessary.

    6. […] Attacking so fast they won't know what hit them… « The Liberation of Iran Has Begun […]

    7. Malthus says:

      “Epic Fury would not have been necessary had Midnight Thunder been even remotely as effective as you claimed.”

      You realize that Epic Fury is targeting ballistic missiles and launchers, right? If Midnight Thunder was not “effective” wouldn’t a repeat of the Fordow bombing be necessary now?

      Operation Roaring Lion is focused on high-ranking Iranian officials. If the Twelve Day War had left Iran’s thermonuclear capabilities unimpaired, wouldn’t this be a priority now?

      If you feared that your regime would be defeated and overthrown, wouldn’t you be sending your fearsome nuclear arsenal airborne?

      Iran is prostrate and unable to act, either conventionally or by a nuclear strike. Z-Putin hardest hit.

    8. 10x25mm says:

      “Iran is prostrate and unable to act, either conventionally or by a nuclear strike. Z-Putin hardest hit.”

      Three burning tankers in the Straits of Hormuz say you are flat out wrong. Putin will be laughing all the way to the bank tomorrow morning as the oil markets surge. The 20% of world LNG which passes through the Straits of Hormuz is also gone from the market; icing on Vlad’s cake. The feckless Euronazis will be kissing his ass by the end of the week.

      Trump and Israel have been clear. Epic Fury is intended to stop the Iranians from digging out their nuclear facilities.

    9. 10x25mm says:

      “You realize that Epic Fury is targeting ballistic missiles and launchers, right? If Midnight Thunder was not “effective” wouldn’t a repeat of the Fordow bombing be necessary now?”

      The WSJ reports today that the U.S. and Israel are rushing to inflict irreparable damage on Iran’s missile program before our own anti-missile interceptor inventory is exhausted.

      Attacks on missile sites aren’t the strategic purpose of Epic Fury, rather they are an effort to compensate for the inability of our military-industrial complex to replenish interceptor inventories. Once those interceptor inventories are exhausted, the war gets real and we probably have to withdraw.

    10. Malthus says:

      “‘Iran is prostrate and unable to act, either conventionally or by a nuclear strike. Z-Putin hardest hit.'”

      “Three burning tankers in the Straits of Hormuz say you are flat out wrong.”

      So you are saying that an attack against merchant shipping is an indicator of military prowess?! The Somali pirates thank you for elevating their status.

    11. Malthus says:

      “Once those interceptor inventories are exhausted, the war gets real and we probably have to withdraw.”

      The entirety of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard will be fornicating with their 70 virgins long before the IAF and USAF voluntarily return to base.

    12. 10x25mm says:

      “So you are saying that an attack against merchant shipping is an indicator of military prowess?! The Somali pirates thank you for elevating their status.”

      Ships can no longer get P&I or wartime risk insurance to run the Strait of Hormuz. Hence, the Iranians have now closed the Straits of Hormuz, independent of their military prowess.

      At least 150 crude and LNG tankers have dropped anchor in the Persian Gulf, north of the Strait of Hormuz. They cannot proceed for lack of insurance.

      You should read more and write less.

    13. 10x25mm says:

      “The entirety of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard will be fornicating with their 70 virgins long before the IAF and USAF voluntarily return to base.”

      Military aircraft without weapons are an air show, not a strike force.

    14. raymondshaw says:

      Well, I for one hope that Comrade Cartridge’s forecast for a Monday significant oil price spike comes true. I added 834 shares of XOM to my portfolio that I bought for $54.62 back during the Covid fiasco. Sitting at $152.50 currently. Gimme another $10-$20 per share and it is gone. Then I’ll just buy them back when the price deflates again in a week. Thanks for the hot tip Comrade!

    15. 10x25mm says:

      “Well, I for one hope that Comrade Cartridge’s forecast for a Monday significant oil price spike comes true. I added 834 shares of XOM to my portfolio that I bought for $54.62 back during the Covid fiasco. Sitting at $152.50 currently. Gimme another $10-$20 per share and it is gone. Then I’ll just buy them back when the price deflates again in a week. Thanks for the hot tip Comrade!”

      Oil is up 8% to 10% this morning, but gas oil is up 25% as the Saudi Ras Tanura refinery got hit. It was the last big export source of gas oil now that the Russians cut off their exports.

      XOM is hovering around $ 160 in premarket trading, up $ 7 or so. You should get the extra $ 3.00 you want later today. Everyone is checking out of non energy stocks and putting their money in war hedges. XOM buys no Gulf crude, so they should fall into that category.

    16. Malthus says:

      OPEC and Russia (!?) have agreed to increase oil production to offset the price increase brought about by Iran’s loss of their Karg Island facility.

      Pro tip: better not hold onto those call options too much longer.

    17. raymondshaw says:

      Just now (9 AM PST) XOM is only up $1. My COP & CVX has done somewhat better, but unfortunately I bought them just post the Maduro snatch, so haven’t held them for a year. You want to buy some oil contracts, be my guest. I got no place to put it.

      All in all, The Don has been very good for my portfolio. He is known by some market followers as the dip buyer’s best friend. How are your Russian shares doing? You might want to short stocks in the Russian Defense sector.

    18. 10x25mm says:

      “All in all, The Don has been very good for my portfolio. He is known by some market followers as the dip buyer’s best friend. How are your Russian shares doing? You might want to short stocks in the Russian Defense sector.”

      The major players in the Russian defense sector are all government owned. Every player in their defense sector is totally controlled by the Military-Industrial Commission of the Russian Federation (VPK) No foreign investment is permitted, and pricing is not as rewarding as the American defense manufacturers enjoy.

      The few Russian weapons employed by the Iranians are doing fairly well. An Iranian MiG-29 shot down an Israeli F-15EX yesterday. Three U.S. F-15Es were shot down over Kuwait this morning. A friendly fire claim has been made, but IFF would have prevented this were it true. Probably shoot downs by the excellent Vympel R-27 AAM. Qatar claims to have downed two Su-24s, but this hasn’t been confirmed. Likely face saving after their LNG plants got attacked and blown.

      This will go on for a while.

    19. 10x25mm says:

      “OPEC and Russia (!?) have agreed to increase oil production to offset the price increase brought about by Iran’s loss of their Karg Island facility.”

      Fake news intended to prevent catastrophic price increases. Not going to happen.

      The available slack OPEC production has to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The Russian slack capacity is all sanctioned.

      Going to make Vlad’s day by lifting sanctions?

    20. raymondshaw says:

      Only The 38th Largest Oil Spike Since 1990:

      https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/only-38th-largest-oil-spike-1990

      Dang it! I was hoping for more. Maybe today’s Ayatollah can rally his New Navy fleet of submersibles and block the Straits of Hormuz. Yeah, that’s the ticket.

    21. 10x25mm says:

      “Only The 38th Largest Oil Spike Since 1990:”

      Diesel increased 45% from $ 620 to $ 901 per mt on the Frankfurt bourse today.

      Natural gas rose 45% from $ 37 to $ 54 per megawatt-hour on the Dutch TTF hub this afternoon.

      The other indices are being rigged by the central banks and they get away with it because there are no transactions. German and French gas storage facilities were 20% full as of Saturday, so they had to buy.

      COP beat your XOM like a red headed step child. Up 4.78%. You picked the wrong stock.

    22. […] Days 1 and 2 of Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion were filled with so much dramatic news and high value targets that it was hard to keep up. Day 3 is a bit less dramatic, just more U.S. and Israel strike packets hitting targets in the country with essential impunity. And some of those targets (like border posts and police stations) seem to be tertiary targets. […]

    23. raymondshaw says:

      Well it sure sucks to be in Europe, doesn’t it. Henry Hub nat. gas spiked too. From $2.97 to $3.00/mmbtu. About a month ago, an arctic blast barrelled through the Northeast. I saw Henry Hub prices briefly at $7.50/mmbtu, while New England spot prices hit $15.00. That’s because New Yawkers don’t want no dang NG pipeline. That’s cause theys smaht.

      So one of my stocks did better than another of my stocks. For a better comparison, over the last 3 months, XOM is up 32.20%, CVX is up 24.24% and COP is up 30.98. I am pleased with all 3.

      How are your beet futures doing?

    24. raymondshaw says:

      I almost forgot, why have those 3 prospered?

      Can you say V e n e z u e l a? I am sure you can.

    25. 10x25mm says:

      “Well it sure sucks to be in Europe, doesn’t it.”

      The Europeans are the putative tip of the spear against Russia. My thesis is the energy strangulation of Europe resulting from the closure of Hormuz breaks that spear, leaving Vlad in the driver’s seat.

      The price of natural gas at the Henry Hub has no more effect on the war in Ukraine than the price of tea in China. It will rise as Europe desperately moves LNG tankers from the Gulf to the USA, but that will take a lot of time. And a lot of their LNG tankers are trapped in the Gulf. The European natural gas price is effectively their electricity price and that will shut down their factories, as it has in Ukraine. No more munitions production. No more spar parts. No more drones.

      The real problem for the European war machine as it faces off against Russia is diesel fuel, which has doubled in price over there in the last three days. Everything in Europe is transported by diesel ICEs. The logistics of supporting Ukraine just become very difficult.

      This was the whole purpose of the Ukrainian pinprick attacks on Russian refineries, now writ large for Europe with the closure of Ras Tanura, which is where almost all European diesel fuel comes from. There are a lot more vessels which can carry diesel in the world than LNG tankers, so I also think we will see explosive price increases in diesel fuel over here much sooner than natural gas price increases.

    26. raymondshaw says:

      “so I also think we will see explosive price increases in diesel fuel over here much sooner than natural gas price increases.”

      Comrade, you are such a tease. Just now (9:10 AM, PST), my XOM shares are at $152.84, down $1.38 from yesterday’s close. In other words, up all of $0.34 since day 1 of Epic Fury.

      Your forecasting acumen leaves much to be desired. If you can’t up your game, Uncle Vlad is going to cut off you allowance.

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