Posts Tagged ‘Semiconductors’

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Semiconductor Subsidies: The Wrong Solution For The Wrong Problem

Thursday, January 20th, 2022

There’s no problem that the federal government throwing money at it can’t make worse.

Today’s example: Democrats pimping billions in taxpayer subsidies for the semiconductor industry.

As the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbates supply chain backlogs and global computer chip shortages

Correction: It wasn’t the pandemic itself, it was government lockdowns and other overeactions that did that.

Democratic leaders in Congress as well as President Joe Biden want Congress to fast track a $250 billion bill to develop American independence from China and other competitors in chip manufacturing.

The Capital Region – home to SUNY Polytechnic Institute, the only publicly owned 300-millimeter semiconductor research and development center in the U.S. – stands to reap significant benefits from the enactment of Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer’s multi-billion dollar bill, which he envisions as a direct investment in his home state’s economy.

“Sen. Schumer wrote this legislation with upstate New York always at the forefront of his mind,” Schumer’s spokeswoman Allison Biasotti said. “We are already seeing the excitement in major employer expansions and thousands of jobs on the horizon from GlobalFoundries’ planned expansion (in Malta) and (his) push for Albany Nanotech to be a hub for the National Semiconductor Technology Center.”

A focal point of the bill, which the New York Democrat co-sponsored with Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind., is a historic $52 billion investment in stateside semiconductor research and development to address a global chip shortage plaguing the automotive industry.

Lawmakers began to focus more on the low domestic production of semiconductors when the COVID-19 pandemic cut off supplies from overseas. Without access to chips, several automakers shut down their production lines, and manufacturers of essential medical devices and consumer electronics struggled to meet increasing demand.

Roughly 12 percent of the world’s semiconductors are manufactured in the United States, down from 37 percent in 1990, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association.

Either these stats are false or misleading (probably the latter). The most recent stats I can find show that the United States has some 47% of the semiconductor market. It’s possible that the 12% refers to the entire worldwide number of individual chips produced, including discrete components (transistors, resistors, etc.). Those are indeed semiconductors, but they’re produced on old amortized fabs (inside the industry these are referred to as “jelly bean factories”) and sell for pennies a piece (or less). If you’re already in that industry, those old fabs make small, steady profits every year, but nobody jumps into that business with new fabs.

The chips China make are generally either: A.) Cheap, or B.) intended for their internal market. No one sends cutting edge chips to be fabbed in China because they don’t have the tech to do it and everyone know they’ll steal your designs and crank out knock-offs on the sly whenever possible. China’s semiconductor industry is mostly smoke and mirrors all the way down.

Semiconductor subsidies have all the hallmarks of a classic Washington boondoggle: The wrong action at the wrong time for the wrong problem.

First, there are already signs that the automotive semiconductor crunch is easing, thanks not to the Biden Administration but to the actions of the free market.

Second, the shortage wasn’t the result of a “chip shortage,” it was the result of “a lack of available foundry wafer starts.” Automakers cancelled their orders for display drivers when it looked like Flu Manchu lockdowns were going to depress the economy for a while, and were caught off-guard by the V-shaped recovery under Trump, and got sent to the back of the line to get their product fabbed after they changed their mind. Remember, just about all foundries are running flat-out 24/7/365, pausing only to switch to different chips for different customers. There’s no slack in the system, and those wafer starts are already spoken for (and possibly paid for) by other customers well in advance. Just as nine woman can’t give birth to a fully grown baby in one month, you can’t just “make chips quicker” in an existing fab.

Third, remember that cutting edge semiconductor fabs are hideously expensive. Moore’s second law states that the cost of a new, cutting edge semiconductor plant doubles every four years. Samsung’s planned fab in Taylor, Texas is going to cost $17 billion.

Fourth, if you go to a random semiconductor company and go “Here’s 20 billion! Go build a state-of-the-art 5nm wafer fabrication plant!”, then:

A.) You’re looking at a very minimum of 2-3 years before the first production wafer comes off the line. You can’t just take an existing building and turn it into a fab, it has to be specially built from the ground up with exacting standards for cleanroom air filtering, concrete slab level uniformity, etc. And 2-3 years is probably the lead time to get an ASML EUV stepper.

B.) Unless you’re TSMC, Samsung or (maybe) Intel, the answer is probably “Uh, we’ll try, but no promises,” because those three companies are the only ones that actually having wafer fabs running 10nm or smaller process nodes. GlobalFoundries, mentioned in the article, has Fab 8 in Malta, NY, running 14nm, which is not horribly far off the state-of-the art, but not good enough to fab the really cutting-edge chips demanded of companies like Apple, NVIDIA, etc. Tiny problem: In 2018, GlobalFoundries stopped all work on 7nm development.

The contract maker of semiconductors decided to cease development of bleeding edge manufacturing technologies and stop all work on its 7LP (7 nm) fabrication processes, which will not be used for any client. Instead, the company will focus on specialized process technologies for clients in emerging high-growth markets. These technologies will initially be based on the company’s 14LPP/12LP platform and will include RF, embedded memory, and low power features.

So it was too hard a game for them to play, but with a big heap of taxpayer subsidies, I’m sure they’d be willing to give it another go.

Of course, you don’t need a cutting edge fab to build display drivers. Bosch just opened a $1.2 billion, 65nm fab in Dresden to do just that. But you don’t need subsidies to build trailing edge fabs.

$250 billion in taxpayer subsidies wouldn’t get you a single additional wafer start this year, and probably would accomplish little more than channeling money to politically connected firms and sticky pockets in a state (New York) that no one wants to build fabs in any more because of high costs, high taxes and union rule requirements.

It’s a bad idea congress should reject.

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Posted in Democrats | 3 Comments »

Samsung To Build $17 Billion Fab in Taylor, Texas

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2021

Reports indicate that semiconductor giant Samsung has picked Taylor, Texas as the site for a $17 billion wafer fabrication plant.

In recent days, Williamson County and the city of Taylor had seemed to emerge as the frontrunner to land a $17 billion chipmaking plant planned by Samsung.

Now, it seems the technology giant has indeed picked the small Central Texas city as the site for its next major operation, according to media reports.

Citing unnamed sources with knowledge of the decision, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday night that Samsung has picked Taylor over sites in Austin, Arizona and New York.

Samsung has not formally confirmed the decision, and a company spokesperson did not immediately respond to messages left by the American-Statesman on Monday evening. However, the announcement is expected to be made in a news conference with Gov. Greg Abbott at the Texas Capitol on Tuesday afternoon.

If Samsung does, in fact, build the facility at the Taylor site, it will be the latest in a stunning run of economic development wins for the Austin area, and for its technology sector in particular.

Tesla announced Oct. 7 that the automaker will move its corporate headquarters from California to Austin. That news came 15 months after Tesla chose an Austin-area site as the home for its $1.1 billion manufacturing facility. Software giant Oracle announced last December that it was moving its corporate headquarters from California to Austin, and a number of other technology giants — including Apple, Facebook, Google and Amazon — have recently expanded their operations in Central Texas.

Samsung recently overtook Intel as the largest semiconductor manufacturer in the world, and along with TSMC, those three are also the only real players in cutting-edge under-10nm processes. As I’ve mentioned before, new cutting edge fabs are hideously expensive to build. TSMC is a foundry (which means they fab other people’s chip designs), while both Samsung and Intel are integrated device manufacturers (IDMs), meaning they fab their own designs, though I think both dabble in foundry work as a sideline. (Samsung is also one of the largest flat panel screen manufacturers in the world; flat panel manufacturing uses semiconductor manufacturing techniques, but is fundamentally a different industry, and just about all flat panels are produced in Asia these days.)

The decision to eliminate New York from the list was probably quite easy. Back when IBM was running it’s state-of-the-art fabs in East Fishkill, there was considerable technological infrastructure in the state. Back In The Day IBM had some of the most respected process technology knowledge in the industry. But then they got out of the manufacturing business, and the East Fishkill fab got sold to Global Foundries, who later sold it to ON Semiconductor. But today New York constantly ranks among the worst states in the nation for business environment, due to high taxes, excessive regulation, and the gradual decay of infrastructure and institutions that comes with one-party Democrat control.

Arizona is a much stronger candidate. Intel has a huge complex of modern fabs in Chandler and TSMC is building a state of the art fab in Phoenix proper, which means there’s a lot of local talent and infrastructure to draw on. A purple state, Arizona usually ranks in the top ten for a business-friendly climate, but they do have a personal income tax.

Texas, by contrast, is constantly rated as the top or second best business climate the the country (occasionally losing to Florida), and has no state income tax. Samsung already has a fab in Austin, along with older legacy fabs from NxP (ex-Motorola) and Infineon, along with significant presence by the major semiconductor equipment manufacturing giants (Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron, etc.). Taylor is close enough to Austin to draw on the technical talent and infrastructure there, without having to worry about the crazy left-wing politics, as Williamson County, while having turned a bit more purple lately, is still safe Republican territory.

Another solid reason to locate in Taylor: ERCOT is headquartered there, which means the area will never be power-cycled in an emergency. The winter storm evidently cost Samsung $268 million in lost revenue from the outage, which I can well believe. When the power goes off, all the equipment needs to be requaled, which is a long, painful process for a single machine, much less the some 200+ needed in a modern fab.

America has lots of tech hubs: Silicon Valley, Seattle, the North Carolina triangle, greater Boston, etc. But nobody is building cutting edge fabs in those areas. Central Texas has rapidly expanding software, hardware and silicon industries.

Austin is primed to be one of the greatest global tech hubs of the 21st century, assuming Austin political leadership doesn’t screw it up…

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Posted in Austin, Economics, Texas | 4 Comments »

LinkSwarm for October 1, 2021

Friday, October 1st, 2021

Greetings, and welcome to the Halloween season! Manchin and Sinema are the only thing that stands in the way of a giant, economy-destroying meteor of leftwing pandering, energy crises ramp up in China and Europe, Biden nominates a commie, and more Flu Manchu shenanigans.

  • Inflation hits a 30 year high, yet Democrats are furious two of their own party aren’t letting them run even bigger deficits.
  • West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin calls the giant runway Porkulus fiscal insanity.

    “What I have made clear to the President and Democratic leaders is that spending trillions more on new and expanded government programs, when we can’t even pay for the essential social programs, like Social Security and Medicare, is the definition of fiscal insanity,” Manchin said in a statement Wednesday.

    (Hat tip: Director Blue.)

  • And you know that $3.5 trillion price tag? Staggering though it is, they’re lowballing it:


    

  • Manchin says that any reconciliation bill must include a Hyde Amendment to bar federal taxpayer funding of abortion. I’m pretty sure Democrats would prefer kicking Manchin out of the party than give compromise on their holy of holies.
  • Manchin and Sinema are a feature, not a bug:

    ‘What if — and hear me out here,” writes Robert Reich, “we stopped letting two corporate Democrats singlehandedly block every single progressive policy we elected Democrats to pass?”

    Okay, Robert. But how, exactly? The Democrats have 50 seats in the Senate. To pass a bill through reconciliation, the Democrats need 50 votes in the Senate. Two of the people who hold those 50 seats do not agree with the rest of the party on “every single progressive policy.” If the other 48 senators do agree — which is far from clear — the Democratic Party will have 48 votes for its agenda, two short of what it needs. Those two, not the Robert Reichs of the world, are the ones with the power to “stop” things.

    “Should all of this just hinge on those two?” Representative Cori Bush (D., Mo.) asked yesterday. “Absolutely not.” But should doesn’t enter into it. The question is does “all of this” hinge on Sinema and Manchin? The answer is yes. Yes it does. And why? Because, again, “all of this” requires 50 votes in the Senate, and two of those votes aren’t on-board.

    Underneath the complaints that Reich and Bush have leveled sits the erroneous implication that, come election time, American voters are obliged to press a button marked “Republican” or “Democrat,” and that, having done so, they are shipped a drone-like representative of the winning team from a central repository in Washington, D.C. Reich complains that “we elected Democrats.” But this is correct only in the aggregate. In fact, 50 different “we”s elected one hundred senators and 435 Representatives, who between them make up our majority and minority parties. There is nothing in this deal that obliges those emissaries to agree with one another.

    Senators Manchin and Sinema are not a pair of uninvited interlopers who are unexpectedly gumming up the gears; they, themselves, are among the gears. This being so, the duo cannot be said to be “blocking” the Democrats’ de facto Senate majority so much as they are sustaining the Democrats’ de facto Senate majority. Why? Because their decision to caucus with the Democrats rather than the Republicans is the only reason that majority exists in the first place. To hear progressives talk, one would assume that in order to take one’s place within the firmament one must first swear a blood oath to Dick Durbin. Shockingly enough, one is obliged to do no such thing.

  • All this debt limit foo-fora is just kabuki:

    If there’s one thing we know about the looming debt limit crunch and the warnings about the dire consequences of default, it’s this: The government is not going to default.

    The recurring brinksmanship over the debt limit and the partisan refusal to get Republican fingerprints on the increase don’t say much for our political class. But the U.S. Treasury isn’t full of stupid people, and they’ve been through this drill before. Back in July 2011, when the debt ceiling of $14.3 trillion was about to be reached, the Washington Post reported:

    The Treasury has already decided to save enough cash to cover $29 billion in interest to bondholders, a bill that comes due Aug. 15, according to people familiar with the matter.

    You can bet they’re making similar plans today. The difference is that 10 years later the debt ceiling is $28.4 trillion, just about doubled, and we’re about to bump into it again.

    Back in that summer of discontent I talked to a journalist who was very concerned about the “dysfunction” in Washington. So am I. But I told her then what’s still true today: that the real problem is not the dysfunctional process that’s getting all the headlines, but the dysfunctional substance of governance. Congress and the president will work out the debt ceiling issue, probably just in the nick of time. The real dysfunction is a federal budget that doubled in 10 years, unprecedented deficits as far as the eye can see, and a national debt (more accurately, gross federal debt) yet again bursting through its statutory limit of $28.4 trillion and soaring past 120 percent of GDP, a level previously reached only during World War II.

  • John Durham subpoenas Clinton law firm Perkins Coie. I’m betting the Dlinton cronies aren’t wild about that at all…
  • Biden nominates an actual communist as Comptroller of Currency:

    The Cornell University law school professor [Saule Omarova]’s radical ideas might make even Bernie Sanders blush. She graduated from Moscow State University in 1989 on the Lenin Personal Academic Scholarship. Thirty years later, she still believes the Soviet economic system was superior, and that U.S. banking should be remade in the Gosbank’s image.

    Snip.

    Ms. Omarova thinks asset prices, pay scales, capital and credit should be dictated by the federal government. In two papers, she has advocated expanding the Federal Reserve’s mandate to include the price levels of “systemically important financial assets” as well as worker wages. As they like to say at the modern university, from each according to her ability to each according to her needs.

    In a recent paper “The People’s Ledger,” she proposed that the Federal Reserve take over consumer bank deposits, “effectively ‘end banking,’ as we know it,” and become “the ultimate public platform for generating, modulating, and allocating financial resources in a modern economy.” She’d also like the U.S. to create a central bank digital currency—as Venezuela and China are doing—to “redesign our financial system & turn Fed’s balance sheet into a true ‘People’s Ledger,’” she tweeted this summer. What could possibly go wrong?

    It’s like an entire century of central planning failure means nothing to her, and Henry Hazlitt died in vain. (Hat tip: Ed Driscoll at Instapundit.)

  • “Democrats Would Prefer That You Ignore All of the Violent Crime Around You.”

    The FBI’s annual report Monday made official what most unfortunately presumed: The United States in 2020 experienced the biggest rise in murders since the start of national record-keeping 60 years ago.

    The Uniform Crime Report detailed a murder increase of nearly 30 percent.

    The previous largest one-year change was a 12.7 percent increase back in 1968. The national rate of murders per 100,000, however, still remains about one-third below the rate in the early 1990s.

    The FBI data show around 21,500 total murders last year, which is 5,000 more murders than in 2019. More than three-fourths of reported murders in 2020 were committed with a firearm, the highest rate ever reported.

    Now before you start jumping to conclusions about a correlation between the leftist fever to defund the police and a huge jump in the nation’s murder rate, you should probably be aware of the fact that the Democrats want you to know that there’s no problem at all.

    That’s right, the same people who want us all to live in mortal fear of being breathed on by a stranger at Kroeger are trying to poof away a pile of bodies.

    (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)

  • Heh:

  • The Fairfax County School Board would really prefer that you not point out the gay porn in their library.
  • There’s stupid, and then there’s revealing a secret military aircraft on Tik-Tok stupid.

  • “Facebook Takes Down Project Veritas Video Featuring HHS Staff Denouncing the COVID-19 Vaccine.” I think they mean this one:

  • Speaking of Flu Manchu, here’s NBA player Jonathan Isaac calmly explaining why he doesn’t feel he needs the vaccine:

  • The Lancet just gives up on trying to determine the origins of Flu Manchu, much like OJ has given up on finding the real killers.
  • China is trying the classic idiot price controls strategy for its self-inflicted energy crisis:

    China is officially panicking.

    Now that the global energy crisis has slammed China’s economy, leading to the first contractionary PMI since March 2020 as a result of widespread shutdowns of factory and manufacturing, not to mention hundreds of millions of Chinese residents suffering from periodic blackouts, Bloomberg reports that China’s central government officials “ordered the country’s top state-owned energy companies to secure supplies for this winter at all costs.”

    Translation: Beijing is no longer willing to risk social anger and going forward China will be subsidizing coil and nat gas, which will lead to even higher prices, which will lead to even higher prices for other “substitute” commodities such as oil, which is why oil surged on the news.

    The news follows a report on Wednesday that China will allow soaring coal prices to be passed on to factories in electricity prices. But prepare for a surge in PPI, which will likely not be allowed to be passed on to CPI due to ‘common prosperity’. Which logically means margin collapse, and shutting down – so even more structural shortages. Unless we get state subsidies of some sort, or differential pricing for the foreign and domestic market. There used to be a name for that kind of economy. Wall Street used to pretend it didn’t like it.

  • European natural gas prices hit all-time highs.
  • Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh tests positive for Mao Tze Lung.
  • Cenk Uygur says he could take former MMA fighter-turned-comedian-turned-podcaster Joe Rogan in a fight. I’m sure Uygur will get right to it after completing that 3 minute mile and turning down Scarlett Johansson begging for sex…
  • Speaking of Rogan, he says that Trump beats Biden or Harris 100% in 2024. Also says someone other than Biden is running his White House.
  • So say the polls: In a hypothetical matchup, Donald Trump creams Joe Biden by 10 points in 2024.
  • Intel breaks ground on a $20 billion seminconductor fab in Arizona. (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • Smith & Wesson is moving from Massachusetts to Tennessee.
  • “Crypto-Trading Hamster Performs Better Than Warren Buffett And The S&P 500.”
  • “Leftists Deeply Afraid Things Could Go Back To Normal.”

    “We don’t want normal,” said activist Earnest Greer. “We want radical change. What if everything goes back to the way it was without us completely dismantling and rebuilding the system?”

    Liberals saw the pandemic as an opportunity to get people less clingy to individual freedom and more accepting of government planning significant parts of everyone’s lives. Normal would mean relinquishing that power, which is anathema to the Left.

  • “I said get in the family photo!”

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    Posted in Budget, Communism, Crime, Democrats, Economics, Foreign Policy, Guns, Media Watch, Military, Social Justice Warriors, Supreme Court | 1 Comment »

    Supply Chain Disruption Update

    Sunday, September 26th, 2021

    All across the world, supply chains that were disrupted by Flu Manchu lockdowns don’t seem to have fully recovered. Maybe it’s because some political entities are still doing lockdowns, or maybe it’s because vaccine mandates are making critical worker shortages worse. Here are a few data points:

  • Remember The Great Toilet Paper Panic of 2020? It’s back!

    Costco warned customers this week about a toilet paper shortage as the wholesale retailer is having challenging time stocking shelves due to supply chain disruptions, according to Fox News.

    Costco told Fox News via an email statement, “Due to increased volumes, you may see a slight delay in the processing of this order.” The retailer noted that the company is “working to fulfill everything as quickly as possible.”

    Costco announced purchasing limits on some products but didn’t mention specific items, saying, “some warehouses may have temporary item limits on select items.”

    Some shoppers have reported other items of Costco warehouses are either in short supply or there are purchase limits.

    Bottled water seems another shortage item.

    As for myself, I made sure to start picking up one of the giant megapacks of toilet paper every trip to Sam’s back when lumber prices started spiking, on the “wood = paper” theory, so I’m set for a while.

  • The semiconductor shortage is getting worse. “A wave of delta-variant cases in Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines is causing production delays at factories that cut and package semiconductors, creating new bottlenecks on top of those caused by soaring demand for chips.” Eh, the slice-and-dice portion of the business is some 20 orders of magnitude less demanding than the actual fabrication process, so I expect that hiccup to be overcome quickly. The fab capacity constraints are going to be with us until next year when more capacity starts coming online (or the Biden Recession starts driving the smaller fabless design houses out of business, freeing up foundry capacity). And Biden Administration threats to invoke the Defense Production Act over semiconductor shortages shows that they have no frigging clue how the semiconductor industry works. The auto manufacturers screwed up by cancelling foundry runs last year, which means they’re paying the price this year. No bureaucratic inquiry is going to result in expanded fab capacity, any more than nine women can get together to produce a healthy baby in one month, and there’s no “hoarding” going on.
  • Shortages are also reported of big rig and diesel parts:

  • There’s a gas shortage in the UK over a shortage of truck drivers.
  • It’s even affecting Halloween decorations.

  • On the ammo shortage front, I’m hearing from friends that it’s still pricey, but can be found a bit more readily than last year. According to this report, handgun ammo is starting to be more available, but rifle ammo is still very scarce with hunting season looming.
  • Finally, from back in August, here’s a piece on how supply chain disruptions were going to get worse.

    The demand for shipping containers greatly exceeds the supply, and this has pushed global shipping container rates to levels we have never seen before.

    And once shipping containers are delivered to U.S. ports, there isn’t enough port workers to unload them all.

    It can now literally take months for products that are made in China to get to the U.S. retailers that originally ordered them.

    • Some data points for your consideration rather than attempted prognostication on whether things are getting better or worse.

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    Posted in Economics, Guns, Regulation | 1 Comment »

    LinkSwarm for September 10, 2021

    Friday, September 10th, 2021

    Yesterday Joe Biden launched a sneak attack on American freedom, and tomorrow is the 20 year anniversary of 9/11. Still working on the Afghan piece. Plus more Australian madness.

  • Biden won’t be making a live 9/11 anniversary address. Of course he won’t. The people actually running the Biden White House are terrified anytime Slow Joe goes out live…
  • Biden wants to mandate all employers to force their employees to take a Flu Manchu vaccine, on pain of termination, enforced by OSHA.
  • But: Biden is excluding postal workers from this mandate. If the unvaccinated are such an existential threat to the republic (spoiler: they’re not), then why exempt the one class of federal employee whose members are out among the general public touching their mail eight hours a day? The answer, of course, is that they have a powerful union.
  • Australia goes insane:

    At the start of the pandemic, Australia determined to squeeze out COVID with lockdowns and travel restrictions and, as an island nation, had considerable success. It was the last of the G-20 countries to hit 1,000 total COVID deaths.

    But this created an unrealistic expectation that Australia could have “COVID zero” as a goal for the duration, and use targeted restrictions and surveillance (“circuit-breakers”) to maintain it.

    As the pandemic has dragged on, this has become completely untenable and done violence to liberty and common sense in a great English-speaking nation.

    Lockdowns have cut a swath through the norms and conventions of an advanced Western democracy, from the suspension of a state-level parliament to the banning of protests to military enforcement of the COVID rules.

    With the Delta surge, more than half of Australians are locked down, often in response to a tiny number of cases.

    ustralian authorities don’t fool around. State premiers have vast powers, and use them. In Melbourne, located in the state of Victoria, a curfew is in place, and limits apply to people leaving their homes. There are hefty fines for noncompliance.

    The spirit of the lockdowns was perfectly captured a few months ago by the chief health officer of the state of New South Wales who warned, “Whilst it is in human nature to engage in conversation with others, to be friendly, unfortunately this is not the time to do that.”

    Ah yes, the public-health threat of over-chattiness.

    The Australian news media might as well be an arm of the public-health bureaucracy, producing stilted and hysterical reports about lockdown violators worthy of some dystopian future.

    The state of South Australia has developed an app to enforce home quarantines. As a news report explains, “the app will contact people at random asking them to provide proof of their location within 15 minutes.” If they fail to do so, the health department will notify the police, who will send officers to check on the possible malefactor.

    Unrestricted travel is a hallmark of a free society, but Australians can barely leave the country. Travel has been cut off between states, creating an arbitrary patchwork of states trying to isolate themselves from COVID cases elsewhere.

    Tens of thousands of Australians have been trapped overseas, unable to come back home because of monthly limits on returning Australians.

    All of this economic and social disruption and coercion hasn’t been enough to stamp out the Delta variant, which is outrunning the government controls.

    Australian prime minister Scott Morrison finally admitted the obvious the other day: “This is not a sustainable way to live in this country.”

  • And Australia’s lockdown has failed:

  • But it’s not enough just to snatch away Australian’s freedom, they’re also seizing booze from locked-down Aussies. “In New South Wales — a southeastern state encompassing Sydney — alcohol deliveries to apartments under COVID-19 lockdown are being confiscated if booze volume exceeds limits mandated by the Ministry of Health.” (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • Did you notice that Iran tried to kidnap an Iranian exile in Brooklyn a couple of months back?
  • Democrats love to talk about the threat of Republican “dark money,” but Democrats received $1.8 billion in dark money from labor unions in 2020.
  • “Remember the women at the L.A. spa who claimed a dude exposed himself and it was dismissed as a “transphobic hoax”? Yeah, charges have now been filed against the man, who is a registered sex offender.”
  • UNC Journalism Dean Worried ‘Diversity of Thought’ Would Interfere with Social Justice ahead of Nikole Hannah-Jones Appointment. Understand that our political, educational and journalistic elites value social justice above all other values and act accordingly.
  • Peter Boghossian: “My University Sacrificed Ideas for Ideology. So Today I Quit. The more I spoke out against the illiberalism that has swallowed Portland State University, the more retaliation I faced.”

    Over the last decade, it has been my privilege to teach at the university. My specialties are critical thinking, ethics and the Socratic method, and I teach classes like Science and Pseudoscience and The Philosophy of Education. But in addition to exploring classic philosophers and traditional texts, I’ve invited a wide range of guest lecturers to address my classes, from Flat-Earthers to Christian apologists to global climate skeptics to Occupy Wall Street advocates. I’m proud of my work.

    I invited those speakers not because I agreed with their worldviews, but primarily because I didn’t. From those messy and difficult conversations, I’ve seen the best of what our students can achieve: questioning beliefs while respecting believers; staying even-tempered in challenging circumstances; and even changing their minds.

    I never once believed — nor do I now — that the purpose of instruction was to lead my students to a particular conclusion. Rather, I sought to create the conditions for rigorous thought; to help them gain the tools to hunt and furrow for their own conclusions. This is why I became a teacher and why I love teaching.

    But brick by brick, the university has made this kind of intellectual exploration impossible. It has transformed a bastion of free inquiry into a Social Justice factory whose only inputs were race, gender, and victimhood and whose only outputs were grievance and division.

    Students at Portland State are not being taught to think. Rather, they are being trained to mimic the moral certainty of ideologues. Faculty and administrators have abdicated the university’s truth-seeking mission and instead drive intolerance of divergent beliefs and opinions. This has created a culture of offense where students are now afraid to speak openly and honestly.

  • “Top CDC Official Steps Down Weeks After Emails Surface Showing Collusion With Teachers Union.”
  • Priorities unaddressed in the recently completed Texas special session. There’s another one coming down the pike soon…
  • Chinese junk bond panic. You never know when all that smoke and mirrors are going to come crashing down…
  • Samsung is edging closer to building a $17 billion semiconductor fabrication plant in Taylor in Williamson County.
  • Goodbye to Omar and Leonard.
  • “Cannabis Use Doubles Risk of Heart Attack in Young Adults.”
  • Woman to Biden: “You ain’t my pimp!”

  • Florida man plays stupid games, wins stupid prizes. Despite some poor situational awareness by deputies. (Hat tip: Dwight.)
  • Que es mas macho!
  • How one foil-wrapped home survived the Caldor fire. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • Here’s a man doing extensive testing of locking pliers. The best brand turned out to be the Malco Eagle Grip, which is both the most expensive pair of pliers, as well as the only brand made in America.
  • Heh:

  • Celebrating the thirtieth anniversary of Slowdive’s Just For A Day.
  • I smiled:

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    Posted in Austin, Crime, Democrats, Foreign Policy, Jihad, Social Justice Warriors, Texas, unions | 2 Comments »

    LinkSwarm for August 28, 2021

    Friday, August 27th, 2021

    Greetings, and welcome to another Friday LinkSwarm! Biden’s Afghan debacle continues to top the news:

  • At least 90 people, including 13 American soldiers, were killed in in a bombing at an entrance to the Kabul airport.
  • Un-Fucking believable: “U.S. officials provided Taliban with names of Americans, Afghan allies to evacuate.”

    U.S. officials in Kabul gave the Taliban a list of names of American citizens, green card holders and Afghan allies to grant entry into the militant-controlled outer perimeter of the city’s airport, a choice that’s prompted outrage behind the scenes from lawmakers and military officials.

    The move, detailed to POLITICO by three U.S. and congressional officials, was designed to expedite the evacuation of tens of thousands of people from Afghanistan as chaos erupted in Afghanistan’s capital city last week after the Taliban seized control of the country. It also came as the Biden administration has been relying on the Taliban for security outside the airport.

    But the decision to provide specific names to the Taliban, which has a history of brutally murdering Afghans who collaborated with the U.S. and other coalition forces during the conflict, has angered lawmakers and military officials.

    “Basically, they just put all those Afghans on a kill list,” said one defense official, who like others spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic. “It’s just appalling and shocking and makes you feel unclean.”

    “French officials gave the Nazi occupiers a list of Parisian Jews they wanted to remain safe…”

  • What is behind Biden’s inexplicable trust for the Taliban?

    It is becoming increasingly difficult to draw any conclusion other than that President Biden knowingly and willfully surrendered Afghanistan to the Taliban.

    To be clear, this is different from concluding that Biden committed to a recklessly premature date for withdrawing all U.S. forces (which, practically speaking, would necessitate NATO’s departure, too) while being aware that the Taliban were capturing territory and that the Afghan security forces might be unable to hold them off over the ensuing months.

    That would be bad, but not as damning as what I am deducing.

    I now believe Biden long ago reasoned that the Taliban were going to take over the country inevitably and decided to treat them as the de facto government. Consistent with this — and with the progressive Democratic orientation that American military power is needlessly provocative, and that concessions are the preferred way to inspire rogues into good behavior — Biden determined back in the spring that he would set a firm deadline to pull our forces out, and then demonstrate to the Taliban that the deadline was real.

    Snip.

    Biden saw the Taliban as the regime in waiting, with whom his administration was energetically negotiating. If he proved to the Taliban that the U.S. really was leaving no matter what, then he figured the Taliban would allow — even facilitate — the evacuation of thousands of American civilian workers, contractors, and diplomatic personnel. Biden would pull out American troops and trust the Taliban, thus appeased, with the fate of the remaining Americans.

    This is mind-boggling, but not the half of it. Biden was also effectively administering the coup de grace to the Afghan government, and not only by elevating the Taliban to the sole Afghan party with which his administration would negotiate the terms of the U.S. departure. Biden would also pull out in a manner that undermined the Afghan security forces’ capacity to fight the Taliban. After all, if U.S. troops and contractors continued providing technical and logistical support to the Afghan ground and air forces, the Taliban might interpret that as an American commitment to continue the war. Biden would make sure the jihadists had no cause for doubt.

    In this, Biden had to know he would be leaving to the Taliban the fate of tens of thousands of Afghans who supported American combat, intelligence, training, and nation-building efforts over the last 20 years. Though many government officials, members of Congress, and influential commentators pleaded with the Biden administration to fast-track the visa process and evacuate the Afghans while American forces were still in control, Biden plainly rationalized that this could provoke the Taliban into retaliatory measures — potentially against Americans — that would put public pressure on him to maintain U.S. forces in the country. Biden’s priority was to withdraw them. Ergo, the Taliban — yes, that Taliban — would be trusted to deal benignly with America’s Afghan allies.

    Read the piece for Andrew McCarthy’s reasoning behind this conclusion, including the Bowe Bergdahl swap, and evacuating Bagram in the dead of night. My only quibble with his analysis is that his working assumption that Biden is making the decisions of the Biden Administration. I rather doubt it…

  • On the ground in Afghanistan: things are bad:

    “My phone is melting, and my inbox is jammed, from grown Afghan men pleading, crying to get out with their wives and children,” my reader begins:

    All of them used to work for our company. They are engineers, electricians, lab technicians, urban planners, CAD drafters, surveyors, concrete masons, welders — all skilled technical and professional people who enjoyed what we would consider a solid middle-class life. Some went on to become lecturers at university. These aren’t herders and farmers — they are civilized, educated, middle class tradesman and professionals who trusted their government to maintain the safety and security of the nation. Their average age of the parents is late thirties. Their average family size is seven. The youngest child among them is 10 days old. Inside of a month, their lives are uprooted by bloodthirsty barbarians. They are hunted because they helped the Americans.

    One of our families has been waiting in the Entry Control Point for four days straight – living in trash and filth, with no shelter, jammed among thousands of others. The parents know full well what awaits if they are fortunate to get out. They are willing to live the life of a refugee in a camp near a military installation. Essentially a one room United Nations Refugee Center shack, or group expeditionary tents, no indoor plumbing, no kitchen. They share public toilets and showers and live in a fenced compound in a sea of other shacks or tents surrounded by gravel — for at least 12-18 months while they wait for the State Department to process their visas. They are willing to walk away from their middle-class comforts and live in refugee camps for well over a year, possibly two, for the freedom and liberty of the United States. Amanullah asked me yesterday if I could get him to Mexico so he could walk to Texas so he wouldn’t have to live in a refugee camp. They know.

    Don’t let anyone claim that Afghans who worked for America or international organizations will be fine.

    “Here’s a kick in the gut,” my reader continues. “Fawad — not his real name — called me crying last night after midnight. His brother-in-law was killed by the Taliban earlier that day. He had worked for an American contractor in Zabul [a southern province considered part of the Taliban’s heartland]. He was beaten in the street and then shot in the head so the villagers could see.”

  • More of that California ballot fraud that doesn’t exist. “300 recall ballots, drugs, multiple driver’s licenses found in vehicle of passed out felon: Torrance police.” I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that Random X. Felon wasn’t working for Larry Elder…
  • Speaking of which: Democrats have the State of California investigating Larry Elder’s campaign.
  • Speaking of voting fraud, polls show growing support for voter ID.
  • Supreme Court upholds reinstatement of President Trump’s “stay in Mexico” policy for illegal aliens. Texas and Missouri were the lead plaintiffs.
  • The Supreme Court also struck down Biden’s eviction moratorium.

    “It would be one thing if Congress had specifically authorized the action that the CDC has taken. But that has not happened,” the Court majority wrote in an unsigned opinion.

    “Instead, the CDC has imposed a nationwide moratorium on evictions in reliance on a decades-old statute that authorizes it to implement measures like fumigation and pest extermination,” the opinion continued. “It strains credulity to believe that this statute grants the CDC the sweeping authority that it asserts.”

  • On his way out the door, disgraced New York Governor Andrew Cuomo granted clemency to Weather Underground cop-killer David Gilbert.

    David Gilbert is the father of San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin. He had Chesa with his then-partner Kathy Boudin.

    David Gilbert was also a member of the Weather Underground, the domestic terrorist group responsible for the 1981 Brink’s armored car robbery in New York.

    Gilbert and Boudin dropped off infant Chesa with a babysitter before driving to the robbery.

    The terrorists, with members of the Revolutionary Armed Task Force and Black Liberation Army, robbed the truck and wounded guard Joe Trombino and killed his co-worker Peter Paige. Police officers Waverly Brown and Edward O’Grady died in the shootout.

    A jury convicted Gilbert of three counts of second-degree murder and four counts of first-degree robbery.

  • Oh: They also took his Emmy away. The one they gave to him after we all knew he was a Granny-murderer…
  • Politico sells to German publishing giant Axel Springer for about $1 billion. Hopefully this will result in Axel Springer CEO Mathias Dopfner firing some snowflakes when he insists they do actual reporting rather than waging social justice… (Hat tip: Director Blue.) (Previously.)
  • Emerald Robinson: “How I Murdered The Weekly Standard“:

    My modest proposal was that the 3% of Republicans who never approved of President Trump should stop pretending that they were spokesmen for the 97% of Republicans who did. In the corporate media, where 97% of that 3% were keeping a high profile on cable news, the distortions became preposterous. This seemed to me elementary logic. But for the tiny group of delusional Never Trumpers, my modest proposal fell on them like a ton of bricks.

    In the end, my essay ignited a kind of public war among conservative intellectuals that helped to bring down the neocons and the Never Trumpers in the media. Not only did the Weekly Standard shut down, but the National Review kicked out Jonah Goldberg, and the neocon’s peewee prince Bill Kristol went to work for Democrats – all in six months. How did that happen? They had no base of support outside of the Beltway, and they were in willful denial about their own unpopularity. This dynamic was obvious at all levels of media, but let’s take a high visibility example: the old panel at Fox New’s Special Report with Bret Baier. Now, Bret Baier is obviously a very quiet Never Trumper but if you stacked your daily panel with Stephen Hayes, A. B. Stoddard, and Jonah Goldberg and these were the “conservative” pundits you picked to defend President Trump’s policies then it’s obvious what Bret was doing.

    A week or so after my essay appeared, I got a very short and shrill phone call from one of Bret’s staffers – who was a rabid Hillary Clinton supporter, no less. When I picked up the call, she was angry and breathless and did not want to do small talk. She said: “You don’t know what you’ve done, you don’t understand the damage you’ve caused to this show.” I asked her to calm down, and be specific. She hung up instead.

    This bizarre exchange piqued my interest enough to watch Bret Baier’s show that night, which was an emotion I rarely felt for Special Report. Sure enough, Bret Baier ended the episode with an odd little “farewell” segment to Stephen Hayes. The gist of it was that Hayes was suddenly taking “a one year vacation to Spain” with the family. My first thought was: who does a video farewell when they take a vacation? The whole thing was pure baloney. It was now perfectly clear why Bret’s hysterical staffer had called. Apparently my essay had been a crucial factor in getting Stephen Hayes kicked off TV. Someone over at corporate had finally looked at the piss poor ratings Bret was getting and the light bulb went off: no one wants to listen to Hayes anymore. That was certainly true. (A few months later, the sour puss A. B. Stoddard also disappeared from the Special Report show – this time without a video farewell.)

    Hayes getting axed left me surprised. How was I to know that Fox executives could read? How was I to know that Baier and Hayes were roommates in college? Did Hayes sail to Spain on one of those idiotic cruises that he was always pushing on his subscribers? Jonah Goldberg had been taunting me from the pages of the National Review that the Never Trumpers were all doing fine – and then suddenly none of them were doing fine. In his video farewell, Hayes wanted everyone to know that he’d be back in a year, and that he was still the chief editor of the Weekly Standard magazine. Both of these statements actually turned out to be false.

    Five months later, I got a call from an insider that all the employees at the Weekly Standard were being asked to prepare for the worst. Had anyone run with this story yet? No they hadn’t. Had it somehow fallen to me to be the first to announce the end of the celebrated neocon magazine where Bill Kristol and Stephen Hayes had regularly taunted the American working class? Yes it had. The Lord had delivered them into my hands

    Honestly, it was less of a murder than documenting a suicide…

  • “Snopes co-founder and owner caught plagiarizing dozens of articles and Snopes went ahead and fact-checked it for us.”
  • Communist purges communists:

    Like the Soviet Union under Stalin, Current Affairs is the private kingdom of one man, in this case the dandy communist Nathan Robinson. For five years, Robinson has been all over Current Affairs like a cheap suit, while a small team of deluded volunteers has labored in his salt mine, generating content for the greater glory of the revolution, and their leader, the Potemkin page-turner. But even five-year plans go awry.

    Lyta Gold, who was hired to generate ‘Amusements’, is not amused. Gold claims that when the staff attempted to form a workers’ co-operative, Robinson fired them all.

    It would take a heart of stone not to laugh… (Hat tip: Ed Driscoll at Instapundit.)

  • “Israeli Study Shows Natural Immunity 13x More Effective Than Vaccines At Stopping Delta.”
  • “Large CDC Study Doesn’t Support Mask Mandates in Schools.” This is the sort of science Democrats don’t want settled. (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • In an administration that sucks, Jen Psaki stands out for really sucking hard.
  • Speaking of sucking, here’s Spanish-language media omitting embarrassing information in their translation:

  • “Texas Wins Preliminary Victory Against Biden Administration in Medicaid Lawsuit. The district court’s order temporarily suspends the Biden administration’s revocation of Texas Section 1115 Medicaid waiver.” The Biden Administration retroactively denied a waiver issued by the Trump Administration in an attempt to force ObamaCare down the state’s throat.
  • Texas election integrity law finally passes the Texas House, meaning Democrat’s quorum-busting stunts got them Jack and Squat.
  • Herschel Walker is running for the U.S. Senate.
  • “Germany Schnitzels Itself After Ditching Nuclear, Coal Power For Green Pipe Dreams.” Keep enjoying the highest energy costs in Europe, Deutschland…
  • Samsung tops Intel as world’s largest semiconductor manufacturer.
  • Not news: Vultures eating dead cows. News: vultures eating live cows.
  • The Shat at 90.
  • Who should you back with your Go Fund Me money, Brett Butler or Spinal Tap’s Viv Savage? (I did toss a little money Brett’s way, as I knew her a little back in my standup comedy days…)
  • “Americans At Mercy Of Taliban Just Glad We Don’t Have A President Who Posts Mean Tweets Anymore.”

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    Posted in Border Control, Democrats, Elections, Foreign Policy, Jihad, Media Watch, Military, ObamaCare, Regulation, Supreme Court, Texas | 1 Comment »

    Bosch’s New Fab And The State of European Semiconductors

    Wednesday, June 23rd, 2021

    This is interesting for what it says about the state of European semiconductor manufacturing:

    German tech giant Bosch has opened the doors to a new semiconductor manufacturing facility in Dresden, which it hopes will plug the significant hole currently plaguing automotive supply chains.

    The site – which was estimated to cost the company in excess of €1 billion (AU$1.57 billion) to build – will reportedly begin producing much-needed chips for vehicles by early September this year. It is so far unclear how the product will be distributed, and if German manufacturers – including Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz – will be given priority in the queue.

    “The new [factory] is the single largest investment in the company’s history. This cannot be stressed too much. Its size and additional production capacity alone are impressive. The very latest methods of data-driven continuous improvement in production make the Dresden plant a smart factory,” said German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

    “To put it another way: in this plant, natural and artificial intelligence have joined forces with the internet of things to form a productive symbiosis.”

    Here Alte Jungfer Merkel is no doubt repeating some generic technomarketingspeak handed to her by an aide, as I suspect Merkel is as ignorant of current developments in artificial intelligence as I am of the songs she sang in the Freie Deutsche Jugend.

    Here’s a Deutsche Weil English video segment on the fab, for which the headline says “Europe aims for independence from Asia”:

    How cutting edge will the Bosch fab be?

    The 300mm fab has been under construction since June 2018 and as recently as October 2019 it was stated that the Dresden wafer fab was expected to start operations in spring 2020…

    The fab makes use of 5G communications and artificial intelligence [there’s that phrase again -LP] for extensive automation and will be used for the manufacture of power semiconductors and ASICs for automotive applications down to a minimum geometry of 65nm, according to a company spokesperson.

    (record scratch)

    300mm is industry standard, and Dresden makes sense, as Infineon, Global Foundries and X-FAB already have fabs there, so there’s a skilled labor pool to draw on. The strange thing here is spending $1.2 building a new 65nm fab, since that’s about seven process node generations behind the cutting edge. 65nm was cutting edge way back in 2005.

    You don’t need cutting edge process technology to build automotive integrated circuits, which tend to use older process nodes, but 65nm doesn’t give you much headroom for the long haul. It also doesn’t really do much to “compete with Asia,” since it’s hopelessly behind not only leaders TSMC and Samsung, but also about half the fabs run by Chinese companies SMIC and Unigroup. It’s hard to see investing $1 billion in building a older technology fab as opposed to contracting out production to foundries. (Of course, foundry capacity is highly constrained right now, and maybe Bosch leadership was able to see that coming when they broke ground in 2018.)

    Could it still turn out to be a decent investment? Possibly. In the short haul it will relieve the current capacity crunch and let Bosch gain share from competitors who can’t book foundry production. Plus semiconductor manufacturing seems like the sort of thing European governments like to subsidize. And indeed, the DW piece notes that “The German government also invested in the plant.” (It also wouldn’t surprise me to find out that various inscrutable, multi-acronym EU agencies unknown to voters in Barcelona and Gdansk are also kicking in money.) Fueled by taxpayer money, building a 65nm fab could still be a profitable proposition for Bosch.

    But fabs close all the time, even 300mm fabs. Building a fab dedicated to such an old process node makes profitability a much more challenging proposition, especially given the next (inevitable) industry downturn. You only have so many years before everything is obsolete. Bosch has given themselves a very short runway to profitability for this investment.

    Back in the 1990s, Europe was competitive with American and Japanese semiconductor companies, with fabs built in the UK, Ireland, France, Germany, the Netherlands and even Italy. Today, of those countries, only Ireland (Intel) and Germany have any 300mm fabs at all, despite having a highly educated workforce and modern technological infrastructure. (Russia evidently has one as well, owned by Crocus Nano Electronics (about which I know next to nothing), also running 65nm, that started production in 2015.) Europe’s semiconductor industry has been passed not only by Taiwan and South Korea, but also by China.

    While Europe was integrating, its semiconductor manufacturing capacity was stagnating. Highly integrated, yes, but also highly regulated and highly unionized.

    As I’ve said before, building cutting edge fabs is a very expensive game to play. Collectively, the world has decided that Europe is not a suitable location for one.

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    This Is Your Skyscraper On Chinesium

    Wednesday, May 19th, 2021

    Only recently did I learn the word Chinesium, a much needed neologism describing the crappy, subpar metal that cut-rate Chinese manufacturers build their products out of.

    So what happens when you build skyscrapers out of Chinesium? This happens:

    Engineers were inspecting a skyscraper in southern China on Wednesday, a day after it triggered widespread panic when it suddenly began shaking, as people took to social media to ask if shoddy construction may have been to blame.

    Shoddy construction? In China?

    The 1,000-foot SEG Plaza in the southern city of Shenzhen near Hong Kong began swaying in the early afternoon on Tuesday, prompting people inside and those on the streets below to flee.

    Emergency management officials quickly ruled out an earthquake as the cause of the wobble in the tech hub’s Futian district.

    Officials said no further movement had been detected and experts found “no safety abnormalities in the main structure and surrounding environment of the building.”

    The building had stopped shaking by the time people were evacuated, state media reported, and the plaza remained sealed off.

    Building collapses are not rare in China, where lax construction standards and breakneck urbanization over recent decades has led to buildings being thrown up in haste.

    You don’t say. It’s cut corners all the way down.

    Poor construction standards are often linked to corruption among local officials, most recently after the collapse of a quarantine hotel in southern China last year.

    As opposed to that corruption among national officials reporters aren’t supposed to mention.

    Completed in 2000, the tower is home to a major electronics market as well as various offices in the central business district of Shenzhen, a sprawling metropolis of more than 13 million people.

    The building is named after the semiconductor and electronics manufacturer Shenzhen Electronics Group, whose offices are based in the complex.

    It is the 18th tallest tower in Shenzhen, according to the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat skyscraper database.

    I’d never heard of Shenzhen Electronics Group, AKA Shenzhen Fine Made Electronics Group Company Ltd., which doesn’t necessarily mean anything. There are lots of fabless semiconductor manufacturers in various vertical markets I’ve never heard of. Bloomberg says they have 899 employees. So why do they have a website that would have looked ancient even in 2005?

    Hopefully their semiconductors are better constructed than the building they work in.

    Chinese authorities last year banned the construction of skyscrapers taller than 500 meters (1,640 feet), adding to height restrictions already enforced in some other cities such as Beijing.

    Sounds like Chinesium may be a widespread problem in China…

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    Posted in Communism, Foreign Policy, Waste and Fraud | 3 Comments »

    Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography Is Insane

    Thursday, April 8th, 2021

    People reading yesterday’s piece on China’s semiconductor industry have been asking “Wait, are you saying every semiconductor maker in the world relies on one Dutch firm?”

    For new, cutting edge fabs, the short answer is yes. If you’ve bought a new computer or smart phone in the last year, the chances that at least some of the layers in some of the chips went through an ASML EUV stepper approaches 100%.

    The technology required to produce EUV sounds like something a crazy person would dream up:

    Earlier generations of kit employ lasers to produce light directly. But as wavelengths shrink, things get trickier. Inside a cutting-edge EUV machine 50,000 droplets of molten tin fall through a chamber at its base each second. A pair of lasers zap every drop, creating a plasma that in turn releases light of the desired wavelength. The mirrors guiding this light, made of sandwiched layers of silicon and molybdenum, are ground so precisely that, if scaled to the size of Germany, they would have no bumps bigger than a millimetre. Because EUV light is absorbed by almost anything, including air, the process must take place in a vacuum. To get into the production facilities, your correspondent had to don a special suit and leave his notebook behind, lest it shed unwanted fibres.

    The machines, weighing 180 tonnes and the size of a double-decker bus, are themselves a testament to the electronics industry’s tangled supply chains. ASML has around 5,000 suppliers. Carl Zeiss, a German optics firm, fashions its lenses. VDL, a Dutch company, makes the robotic arms that feed wafers into the machine. The light source comes from Cymer, an American company bought by ASML in 2013. ASML is, in turn, one of hundreds of firms that supply the chipmakers themselves. But it is so vital that Intel, Samsung and TSMC have all chipped in to finance its research and development in return for stakes in the firm.

    The Wikipedia entry is even crazier:

    The tool consists of a laser-driven tin (Sn) plasma light source, reflective optics comprising multilayer mirrors, contained within a hydrogen gas ambient. The hydrogen is used for keeping the EUV collector mirror in the source free of Sn deposition.

    EUVL is a significant departure from the deep ultraviolet lithography standard. All matter absorbs EUV radiation. Hence, EUV lithography requires a vacuum. All optical elements, including the photomask, must use defect-free molybdenum/silicon (Mo/Si) multilayers (consisting of 40 Mo/Si bilayers) that act to reflect light by means of interlayer interference; any one of these mirrors absorb around 30% of the incident light.

    Current EUVL systems contain at least two condenser multilayer mirrors, six projection multilayer mirrors and a multilayer object (mask). Since the mirrors absorb 96% of the EUV light, the ideal EUV source needs to be much brighter than its predecessors. EUV source development has focused on plasmas generated by laser or discharge pulses. The mirror responsible for collecting the light is directly exposed to the plasma and is vulnerable to damage from high-energy ions and other debris such as tin droplets, which require the costly collector mirror to be replaced every year.

    Also:

    An EUV mask consists of 40 alternating silicon and molybdenum layers; this multilayer acts to reflect the extreme ultraviolet light through Bragg diffraction; the reflectance is a strong function of incident angle and wavelength, with longer wavelengths reflecting more near normal incidence and shorter wavelengths reflecting more away from normal incidence. The pattern is defined in a tantalum-based absorbing layer over the multilayer. The multilayer may be protected by a thin ruthenium layer.

    Got that? Good. That Wikipedia page is worth scrolling all the way through once for for the humbling realization of just how complex and precise dozens of different areas of chemistry, physics and optics combine to allow this one semiconductor tool to function.

    “Sure, we’re zapping droplets of molten tin with high energy lasers in an atmosphere of pure hydrogen to create pulses of light reflected off eight impossibly smooth mirrors of 40 layers each to pattern billions of lines on a tiny patch of silicon at the heart of a $120 million, 180 ton machine, but it’s actually a lot more complex than I’m making it sound. Also, we do it 96 times on a single pass on a single 300mm wafer, and we handle 170 wafers an hour.”

    Here are a couple of videos showing how large and complex an EUV stepper is:

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    China’s Semiconductor Industry: Shell Games All The Way Down

    Wednesday, April 7th, 2021

    I’ve written about China’s semi-illusory semiconductor businesses before: “In China the question is always how much of that investment is real, and how much is illusion. A lot of those ‘under construction’ fabs never materialize, either unable to attract investors or having their funds magically siphoned off to some other enterprise.” While researching yesterday’s piece on the current semiconductor shortage, I came across this Emily Feng NPR piece on more multi-million dollar shenanigans in that space:

    In 2019, the U.S. sanctioned two major Chinese telecom firms, temporarily cutting them off from a vital supply of semiconductor chips — bits of silicon wafer and microscopic circuitry that help run nearly all our electronic devices.

    Wuhan Hongxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. promised a way out, toward self-reliance in the face of increasingly tough U.S. curbs on this technology. The private company once boasted on its website that it would raise a total of $20 billion to churn out 60,000 leading-edge chips a year.

    None of that would come to pass.

    Hongxin’s unfinished plant in the port city of Wuhan now stands abandoned. Its founders have vanished, despite owing contractors and investors billions of yuan.

    The company is one of six multibillion-dollar chip projects to fail in the last two years. Their rise and fall is a cautionary tale in an industry that is flush with state cash but still scarce on expertise — and a preview of the expensive and winding road China will have to take toward semiconductor self-sufficiency, now a national security priority.

    Hongxin Semiconductor began in November 2017 as a joint venture between Wuhan’s Dongxihu district government and a company called Beijing Guangliang Lantu Technology.

    The venture got off to a good start — on paper — but a closer look shows there were a number of issues. One of the co-founders of Guangliang had only finished elementary school and was allegedly using false credentials and a different identity, Cao Shan, according to 36Kr, a Chinese tech news outlet. Another co-founder, Li Xueyen, dabbled in selling Chinese traditional medicine, alcohol and tobacco before starting Hongxin, according to corporate records reviewed by NPR.

    These are not the profiles you look for in semiconductor startup founders.

    The two could not be reached for comment.

    Yeah, I bet.

    To balance out their lack of technical know-how, the Hongxin founders lured in one of Taiwan’s most famous semiconductor engineers, Chiang Shangyi, to serve as director. He left the company in 2020 to become the deputy chairman of China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., telling Hong Kong paper South China Morning Post that his time at Hongxin was “a nightmare.” Chiang did not respond to NPR requests for comment.

    Hongxin made headlines in December 2019 when it managed to buy an older model lithography machine made by Dutch company ASML, despite American lobbying to prevent its sale to the Chinese chipmakers.

    OK, on the face of it that sounds pretty impressive. If you want to have a cutting edge fab, you have to have one of ASML’s top of the line Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) steppers. In almost every other segment in the semiconductor equipment market, there’s competition between the three big players (Applied Materials, LAM Research and Tokyo Electron) and occasionally other companies (like Axcelis for ion implanters). But while you might be able to get away with lesser Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines from Nikon or Canon for some tasks, for the smallest features on cutting edge 7 and 5nm nodes, you simply can’t do without an ASML EUV stepper. (More background here.)

    Well, guess what? The vaunted ASML tool Hongxin bought is apparently an older 1980 model (presumably this one, which dates from 2015, not 1980) which is DUV, not EUV.

    Back to the NPR piece.

    ASML sold the multimillion dollar piece of equipment — used to etch semiconductors — because of Jiang’s top-notch reputation, according to two people familiar with the sale who were not authorized to speak publicly about it. ASML declined to comment.

    Feng (or her editors) goofed here. ASML makes lithography machines, not etch tools.

    Hongxin’s timing was opportune. Chinese chip companies still rely heavily on European, American and Japanese technology — much of which, in turn, relies on American intellectual property, which the U.S. appears determined to keep out of Chinese hands. China’s semiconductor demand continues to surge beyond what it can supply itself; trade data show that in 2019, Beijing imported around $350 billion worth in chips.

    Given that reliance, China’s central and local governments have been pumping money into the sector to accelerate domestic chip design and manufacturing. The country’s latest five-year economic planning document released in March identifies integrated circuits — semiconductors — as a priority sector for research and development funding.

    When governments starts pumping big money into private companies, you can be sure multiple scams are never far behind.

    The all-out approach has notched achievements. Successful chip design companies such as Cambricon and Huawei’s HiSilicon have allowed Huawei to replace some of its U.S.-designed chips in its mobile phones.

    Cambricon and HiSilicon are both fabless design houses, and both get their chips fabbed at foundries like TSMC. Huawei is one of the largest electronics companies in the world, with over $100 billion in annual sales, and they don’t own their own fab.

    Not far from Hongxin is Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC), a partially state-owned company that plans to double its output of memory chips to overtake South Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynix, which currently dominate production.

    Memory is a tough business. SK Hynix exists because Hyundai and LG (aka Lucky Goldstar), two huge Korean chaebols who hate each other only slightly less than rival Samsung, found the sledding too tough to go alone and had to combine their respective semiconductor operations to survive. Memory makes money hand-over-fist in boom times, but barely breaks even during busts. It’s less technically demanding than some other semiconductor segments, so China could conceivably make some headway there.

    YMTC is a subsidiary of Tsinghua Unigroup, a wholly owned business unit of Tsinghua University. Hu Haifeng, Communist Party secretary of Tsinghua Holdings, is the son of Hu Jintao, former CCP General Secretary and President of the People’s Republic of China.

    Hongxin sought to capitalize on this momentum. It rented a discreet office on the 25th floor of Wuhan’s Dongxihu district government headquarters.

    “Cao” and his partners promised to pitch in 1.8 billion yuan ($276 million) in investment on top of 200 million yuan ($30.7 million) in starting funds from Dongxihu district.

    Wuhan’s city government was, around the same time, also beginning construction on a cybersecurity park to provide office and residential space for technology businesses, and it was looking for a flagship company to anchor the complex. In 2018 and 2019, the city named Hongxin its most important “critical construction project” and the company began building its factory next door.

    As early as late 2019, even while Hongxin was being lauded by Chinese media for securing an ASML machine, several Wuhan-based construction crews were scrambling to get paid for millions of dollars of work for Hongxin.

    “Four months ago, [Hongxin’s] payments to us started to be short, and now we are missing 18 million yuan [$2.76 million],” one contractor, Lu Haitao told another, Wang Liyun in December 2019, according to phone recordings NPR obtained. Wang confirmed the authenticity of the recordings when reached by phone. Lu did not respond to several texts and calls from NPR. Wuhan’s municipal government did not respond to a request for comment.

    Meanwhile, two other semiconductor companies — Tacoma Semiconductor Technology Co. Ltd. and Dehuai Semiconductor Technology Co. Ltd. — were also running out of cash.

    Tacoma was over 350 miles from Hongxin along the Yangtze river, in the port city of Nanjing. There, the Taiwanese entrepreneur Joseph Lee had initially found a welcome harbor for his own ambitions, starting Tacoma in the city in 2015. He pledged to raise $3 billion to make wafer chips, with consultation from Israeli company Tower Semiconductor (formerly TowerJazz). Tower declined to comment for this story.

    Lee continued pitching other local governments. In 2016, he co-founded a second company in Jiangsu province’s Huai’an city, named Dehuai Semiconductor. (Lee sold his stake the same year, citing a clash in vision with the firm’s other managers.)

    In 2017, Lee invited Chinese media to tour Tacoma’s facilities, declaring the company had somehow scored 200 million yuan ($30.7 million) in sales. Tacoma had yet to even finish construction on its manufacturing facilities.

    Lee initially agreed to an NPR interview for this story but later retracted it, citing state pressure. “Officials have told me not to talk to the media,” he said by text.

    Yeah, I bet.

    By 2018, Tacoma’s employees were blasting an online forum run by the Nanjing mayor’s office with complaints about unpaid salaries. Chinese corporate records show at least 50 legal complaints have been filed against Tacoma in provincial court, all seeking to recoup construction costs or unpaid wages. Lee disputes owing employees 20 million yuan in unpaid wages.

    “Real or fake, the truth is in the hearts of the people,” Lee wrote shortly after these allegations, on Wechat, the Chinese messaging app, and cited a verse from the New Testament: “Now faith is the certainty of things hoped for, a proof of things not seen.”

    Citing bible verse when rumbled for his scam. Classic.

    Hongxin, Tacoma and Dehuai were able to secure billions of yuan in state funding on the condition they would match that with investment of their own — a commitment that never materialized. Tacoma eventually raised only a fraction — 250 million out of 2.5 billion yuan — of what it promised.

    “We never imagined that when our cash flow dried up, we would not be able to find new [cash flow sources], that we would get in so deep,” he told Japanese broadcaster NHK this March.

    And this is the problem with doing business in China in general: it’s shell games all the way down. At lot of times, loans and investments are siphoned through four or five different entities from the purposes for which they were originally obtained. Everyone’s trying to get rich, and they hope to survive on smoke and mirrors long enough to get profitable. Imagine if Kleiner Perkins invested $25 million in a software startup, only to find that money was spent on a noodle shop, a used car dealership and a golf club manufacturer.

    Sometimes it works. You can build a company on margin, get profitable quickly, and be paying off investors and contractors before anyone realizes how shaky the entire enterprise is.

    But you can’t do that with semiconductor manufacturing. The startup costs are simply too high, easily in the billions. Very, very few companies can afford to be in a game that expensive. China’s two biggest semiconductor manufacturing success stories, SMIC and Tsinghua Unigroup, all have have CCP direct government investment.

    In this game, little hucksters working the margins have no chance.

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