U.S. and Israeli are still hitting targets, and Iran is still retaliating by hitting every other country on the Persian Gulf. Here are some significant updates from the war in Iran:
The IDF targeted a building in which Tehran’s 88-member Assembly of Experts was meeting to choose Iran’s next supreme leader, Israeli sources told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.
Iranian news agencies reported that the building was “flattened” during the Israeli strikes.
No injuries or deaths resulting from the strike have been reported as of early Tuesday evening.
Earlier on Tuesday, Iran’s ISNA news agency cited a member of the Assembly of Experts as saying that choosing the successor to the previous supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, “won’t take long.”
So IDF wiped out not only the top guy and his successor, but also all the likely successors as well…
Suchomimus has damage assessment from coalition naval strikes:
Highlights:
IRINS Makran, a former tanker converted to a forward base ship and Iran’s largest naval vessel, is on fire.
A bunch of smaller ships at Bandar Abbas were also likely hit.
Several frigates likely sunk, and one possibly sunk for the third time.
Lots of stuff hit at Konark naval base in the southeast, both ships and base infrastructure, including a floating dock. IRINS Jamaran is no longer on fire, but is partially underwater.
Multiple targets hit at the Iranian naval base at Bandar-e-Jask.
The Qataris are already joining in the strikes against Iran, and the Saudis might follow suit. “These two countries have the largest and most capable air forces in the Gulf. Qatar can field 22 Eurofighter Typhoon, 40 F-15QA, and 36 Rafale aircraft. Saudi Arabia operates 68 F-15C/D, 149 F-15S/SR/SA, 71 Eurofighter Typhoon, and 77 Tornado aircraft.”
Did Iran hit UAE THAAD missile defense radar sites?
It looks like the IRGC did not lie and indeed destroyed the AN/TPY-2 radar of the THAAD Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) System at Al-Ruwais, UAE.
On Sunday, mobs of young practitioners of the Religion of Peace™ stormed the U.S. consulate in Karachi (Pakistan) and the U.S. embassy in Baghdad (Iraq).
Iraqi police managed to put down their riot before things got too spicy, but in Pakistan, the Marines got a chance to put their training into action, killing 10 and wounding dozens more as rioters pried open the consulate’s gate (local security forces were also on-site, including the Pakistan Rangers).
Another 12 people were killed by local police in the north of the country as a mob stormed U.N. offices.
Seeing lots of reports that the CIA is arming the Kurds to help overthrow the regime, but the source seems to be CNN, so naturally I’m treating that with several grains of salt.
That’s my quick impression of the news out of theater. If you think Imissed something significant, feel free to share it in the comments below.
First a caveat that this video channel has a lot of “Russia is done for” content, so this video, being more in that line, deserves several grains of salt. But it makes a compelling case that Russia’s repeated Baltic provocations have now handed Denmark the legal means, reason and will to completely shut down Russia’s shadow fleet, and thus their last real economic lifeline.
“The blow that will finish off Russia is being dealt in an office in Copenhagen, hidden in the cold lines of an environmental law. Denmark has proven that the ghost shadow fleet Russia established to launder billions of dollars in oil revenues is not only an environmental killer, but also a secret base for drone attacks targeting NATO capitals.”
“With intelligence provided by Denmark, the 18-year-old tanker Boracay linked to Russia was seized by French commandos off the coast of Breast last week. It was reported that the ship was believed to have been involved in a recent drone attack on Copenhagen airport.” “Attack” is probably slightly overstating the case, but “illegal incursion of sovereign airspace” isn’t.
“From this moment on, Denmark moved to lock the Baltic Sea to Russian tankers.”
“On October 6th, the Danish government announced that it was tightening environmental and security inspections of oil tankers, especially old and high-risk vessels passing through its waters or anchored at Skagan Red, an important port between the Baltic and North Seas. However, this goes far beyond a simple security inspection. Danish Industry Minister Morten Bodskov was even more outspoken, saying, ‘We must put an end to Putin’s war machine.'”
“This also applies to the Russian shadow fleet. Authorities will now board and inspect ships that cannot be considered to be on a peaceful voyage, including those that are anchored. In other words, this decision allows Danish forces to raid any ship they suspect.”
Discussion of St. Petersburg, Kalinigrad, and how oil from Russia’s Siberian fields flows there for export snipped, as I’m pretty sure all my readers are familiar with this by now.
The Danish straits, “consisting of the Skagarak and Katagat, is Russia’s economic lifeline and at the same time its weakest link. This is precisely the weak link that Denmark is targeting.”
“In 1974, [the] Helsinki Convention [was] signed as a measure against the Baltic Sea’s increasing industrial pollution. A rare example of cooperation between the Eastern and Western blocks at the time, this agreement aimed to protect the Baltic Sea’s ecological balance. The agreement gave the signatory countries, including Denmark, the authority to [intervene] against ships passing through their waters that posed a serious threat to the environment.”
“According to real-time oil market data from financial agencies like Bloomberg, daily oil exports via the Baltic route were generating an average of $250 to $350 million in revenue for Russia. This revenue stream is now being systematically dismantled. This translates to a massive $10 billion monthly black hole or delay in the Russian federal budget.” Remember that the entire Russian yearly budget for 2024 was estimated to be $357 billion, so that would equal about 1/3rd of Russia’s entire budget.
“This was an inevitable consequence of NATO placing the region under an iron dome, forcing Russia into a corner and prompting reckless counter moves.”
“The Western Alliance, which turned the Baltic Sea into a strategic NATO lake with the participation of Finland and Sweden, did not leave this doctrine on paper. It backed it up with concrete and formidable military power that would prevent Russia from even breathing.”
“The most frightening symbol of this power was the world’s largest warship, the nuclear aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, and its accompanying strike group, which docked on the British coast in August 2025 and anchored in the North Sea. This 100,000 ton floating fortress, carrying more than 90 F-35 and F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jets stood just west of the Danish Straits like a nuclear shield, preventing Russia from embarking on any military adventure.”
“But it was not alone. It was accompanied by the HMS Diamond, a type 45 destroyer belonging to the British Royal Navy and one of Europe’s most advanced air defense ships, and the FGS Hessen, the German Navy’s most modern frigate. This deadly trio supported by NATO standing Maritime Group 1 effectively trapped the Russian Baltic fleet in its bases in Kalinigrad.”
Snipping a description of various NATO flying assets, most of which (save the B-2) are probably flying overlapping NATO air patrol missions most of the time.
“In September 2025, NATO air radars sounded the alarm repeatedly. On September 22nd, German Eurofighter jets and on September 25th, Hungarian Gripen jets were forced to intercept Russian Su-30 and MiG-31 fighter jets flying over the Baltic and dangerously approaching civilian flight routes.”
“These were the desperate struggles of a cornered bear. As military provocations increased, the concrete dangers posed by the shadow fleet reached a level that could no longer be ignored.”
“According to a shocking report published just this week on October 5th, 2025, by the Danish Defense Intelligence Service, FE, Danish helicopters and ships patrolling the Danish Straits were repeatedly targeted by Russian warships using radar lock. This constitutes an extremely dangerous military provocation, implying that the next step could be firing. The report clearly stated that these actions were a hybrid warfare tactic aimed at applying pressure without crossing the line into armed conflict.”
Section on Russia and China’s undersea cable and pipeline sabotage snipped.
The final straw: “Russia was using civilian tankers belonging to its shadow fleet as launch platforms for kamikaze drone attacks on targets in Europe.” Again, see caveat above.
“Acting on this intelligence bombshell, the French Navy launched a breathtaking helicopter operation on the tanker Borachai sailing in the Bay of Bisque on the morning of September 30th.”
“A search of the ship’s cargo hold revealed at least six explosive-laden kamikaze UAV launchers hidden inside special containers tucked between oil tanks.”
“This was irrefutable concrete evidence that Russia had used a civilian ship for a military attack against a NATO country.”
“This chain of evidence, these accumulated provocations, and this final brazen move were the ultimate trigger that spurred Denmark into action, transforming that 50-year-old environmental law into a national security weapon.”
“Here, Denmark is putting the 1974 Helsinki Convention, Helcom, and International Maritime Law on the table rather than imposing a military blockade, which would be a cause for war.”
“The new legal framework grants Danish authorities the power to stop, inspect, and block the passage of uninsured, old, and poorly maintained tankers identified as belonging to the Shadow Fleet.”
“The operation will proceed as follows. A vessel belonging to the Danish Navy or Coast Guard will approach a suspicious tanker and request an inspection. Inspectors boarding the vessel will check its compliance with international maritime standards, namely the SAS, Safety of Life at Sea, and MARPOL [International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships, 1973 as modified by the Protocol of 1978] conventions. It is known that almost all shadow fleet vessels do not meet these standards.”
“If it is determined that insurance policies are fake or insufficient, emergency equipment is not working, personnel are inadequate, or the structural integrity of the vessel is at risk, the vessel will be labeled unfit for passage and will not be allowed to proceed.”
“Following the Boracay case, these inspections will now also include checking for suspicious military modifications or illegal cargo on board.”
“This is not an actual seizure or military intervention. It is a completely legitimate, internationally legal and unavoidable bureaucratic strangulation operation. Russia’s objection to this inspection amounts to an admission that its own ships are rotten and dangerous.”
“This is a flawless legal checkmate that strikes Putin with his own lies.”
The video goes on to suggest that this will be the final straw of cascading failure that breaks the Russian economy. Maybe, but we’ve heard these arguments before.
Also skipping over the argument that if Russia can’t export oil, they have to shut the pipelines off and their Siberian oil infrastructure will freeze in the ground. Peter Zeihan has been making this argument for years as well, but knowing the Russians, they could just dig a big hole in the ground to temporarily dump their crude into to avoid that happening.
“This legitimate step taken by Denmark following the Boracay plot could be the spark that ignites the beginning of the end of the war, illuminating the path to the Kremlin’s collapse. Vladimir Putin lost this war, which he could not win with missiles and armies, to an anonymous bureaucrat holding a folder in Copenhagen.”
Maybe. It’s certainly going to cut one of Russia’s final hard cash pipelines. But Russia has defied expectations of imminent economic collapse for over three years now. At some point, Russia’s failed illegal war of territorial aggression will finally break the country, but no one on the outside has had a good track record of predicting when…