Sometimes I come across videos that are interesting, but not substantial or funny enough to post on their own. Rather than let them continue to clutter up my browser tabs, here are four of them.
Nancy Pelosi, Noted Lush:
Either Pelosi is already three sheets to the wind on the floor of congress at 10 AM, or she’s had some sort of stroke. Either way, she should seek help…
Hunter Biden for President?
If it weren’t for poor standards, the Democrats would have none at all. Still, though they seem open to electing actual commies, it’s still hard to see how even they would be willing to nominate a crackhead for President, no matter how allegedly “likeable” he is. Then again, in a party featuring Adam Schiff, Gretchen Whitmer, Andrew Cuomo and Chuck Schumer, “likability” is a relative measure. Looking back on the 2020 Democratic presidential race, there were a whole lot of ostensibly “serious” candidates (Joe Sestak, Seth Moulton, Tim Ryan, John Delaney, etc.) that Hunter Biden would almost certainly poll better than. And he would be an ever-so-slightly more ethical choice than creepy porn lawyer Michael Avenatti, who MSNBC shamelessly tried to flack as a viable candidate. But the problem is that Joe Biden was never popular on his own, only as an extension of the Obama machine, so Hunter would be banking on basking in a feeble second-hand reflection of reflected glory…
Swiss pool disturbances get so bad that police have to come several times an hour. The solution? Ban foreigners from the pool.
All the problems instantly stopped.
It seems that Europeans will try anything to solve their rising crime problem…except stop importing unassimilated Muslims.
You know the idea that using a .50 BMG against enemy soldiers is a violation of the Geneva Convention? It’s a myth:
Ditto banning explosive bullets, which is banned by the 1868 St. Petersburg Declaration, which the U.S. never signed onto.
There you go, four short videos for the price of one. Enjoy!
If it seems like we’ve already covered this topic this year, it’s because we did. But there seems to be more evidence now, with Russian tanks reported as non-existent on many fronts.
Reporting from Ukraine:
Here, the Russian armed forces ran out of tanks after months of reckless frontal assaults against fortified Ukrainian positions. The multi-layer Ukrainian defense destroyed thousands of Russian armored vehicles and depleted even the Soviet stockpiles that many thought were endless.
On July 8, the Ukrainian General Staff reported an extraordinary battlefield statistic: zero Russian tank losses. Rather than indicating a successful tactical shift, this unprecedented figure underscores Russia’s critical shortage of operational tanks. Russian units simply no longer possess enough tanks to risk losing them in frequent frontal assaults. Mechanized attacks, once the hallmark of Russian offensives, have nearly disappeared, replaced entirely by small-unit infantry actions and increasingly improvised tactics.
Months of relentless, suicidal assaults have decimated Russia’s armored capabilities. Especially in Donetsk and Toretsk, hundreds of Russian tanks have fallen easy prey to Ukrainian FPV drones, anti-tank guided missiles, artillery, and extensive minefields. This staggering attrition has far outpaced Russia’s capacity to replace battlefield losses.
Uralvagonzavod, Russia’s main tank producer, can currently manufacture no more than 20 to 25 new T-90M tanks monthly. Even though Russia increased production slightly from about 17 tanks per month in 2023 to roughly 25 by 2025, this limited output remains negligible compared to ongoing combat losses. Additionally, Russia has historically relied heavily on refurbishing Soviet-era models from storage, such as T-72’s, T-80’s, and even older T-62’s and T-55’s. Yet refurbishment capabilities have dramatically declined as stocks of viable stored tanks dwindle. Previously able to restore about 80 to 100 tanks per month in 2023, this number has dropped significantly to approximately 30 to 35 per month by early 2025. As a result, Russian frontline units rarely deploy tanks unless it involves an isolated, high-priority operation.
I treat Reporting from Ukraine assertions with a grain of salt. But The Military Show is also reporting that Russian tank participation in assaults has all but disappeared:
“Putin’s Toretsk advances have stalled out for a simple reason: Russia no longer has any armored vehicles to support its troops in the region.”
“There have been no armored vehicles visible for about a month and a half.” Forcing them to rely on meatwave assaults.
“There are no armored vehicles left in Toretsk.”
“Toretsk is a microcosm of an emerging armored vehicle situation that Russia is attempting to deal with throughout Ukraine. While Putin has armored vehicles elsewhere, he’s losing them at such a rapid pace that his military is on the verge of ending up completely naked.”
Another observer who thinks Russia is out of tanks in Ukraine is David Axe. “The former Forbes military correspondent took to Trench Art to blare the headline, ‘Mark the Date: Russia is Now Functionally Out of Armored Vehicles.’ Axe makes the point that Russia has lost around 20,000 combat vehicles since the beginning of the Ukraine war, meaning that most Russian troops no longer fight with the protection of armor on any meaningful scale. Instead, they’re lucky if they have any armor at all, with some, such as those in Toretsk, being forced to launch assaults without any sort of protection.”
Axe: “Russia will not have sufficient main battle tanks to conduct effective offensive operations beyond early 2026 if it maintains the same operational tempo and suffers the same losses as in 2024.”
Russia’s claims of producing 1,500 tanks a year are bogus. “The vast majority were tanks it had pulled out of storage and restored, cannibalizing other old tanks in the process.”
Logistics have also been hard hit. “Russia has been mobilizing donkeys, along with some horses, to shuttle equipment back and forth during the Ukraine war.”
We previously mentioned the assaults using Ladas and golf carts.
Covert Cabal, whose tank counting videos we’ve featured over the years, says that many formerly active bases now appear to be “ghost towns.” There are still some equipment at bases near NATO countries, but the Moscow military district appears pretty bare, which, given it’s historic role at discouraging coups, is pretty unusual.
If Russia is essentially out of tanks and other armored vehicles to send to Ukraine, it’s hard to see how his grinding meatwave assaults can eke out enough territorial gains to continue advancing, especially with more U.S. weapons flowing to Ukraine.
Maybe Putin should have taken trump up on his negotiations offer. Without armor, Russia may end up losing all its ill-gotten territorial gains in the next year…
You know how liberals always mock the idea that the left is trying to turn babies gay? Well, this short Asmongold video offers pretty compelling evidence that they’re trying to turn babies gay.
Some titles on in the “Gay Kids Book Section” of Barnes & Noble on display:
Bye Bye Binary
Gay BCs (“Bi s for B,” “C is for Coming Out,” “D is for drag”)
“This is pushing it.” “This is not pushing it. This is beyond everything.”
“F should be for ‘FBI.'”
The irony is that it’s a lesbian couple filming this, and they think it’s too much.
“Bro, I think we’re losing gay marriage pretty soon. I think this is going to go so far it’s going to radicalize. It’s going to make people fucking hate gay people again. Trying to push on literal fucking babies.”
Another Peter Zeihan video, this one on domestic politics, where his insights have usually been…less than stellar. But this time it’s about how screwed the Democrat Party is, though he mostly dances around the real reasons behind their decline, instead wielding his well-worn hammer stenciled “demographics.”
“Is there a future for the Democratic Party in the United States? And the short version is ‘probably not.'”
“The Democratic Party is not what it used to be. It has been through several iterations since it was formed back in the 1800s. But in its most recent iteration, one that dates roughly back to the post-World War II environment, the party basically it it’s formed around three big pillars of voters. The first is organized labor, with capital being on the Republican side of the equation. The second are ethnic minorities with most white people edging towards the Republicans again. And then the third group is coastal elites, specifically of the white tower crowd. People who live in cities and have a very different way of looking at the world than say rural voters who are more likely to be Republicans.” On the last point, Zeihan has shifted from talking about the postwar Democratic Party to the modern one, as Democrats used to own a goodly portion of rural voters, AKA “the farm vote,” especially in the South. Look at this county by county map of the 1932 Presidential election, and you see that Republican rural counties are few and far between. By 1952, rural counties really like Ike…but not in the South, which is still overwhelmingly blue. That change accelerates with the rise of the “new left” in the 1960s and the conscious decision by the left to start pushing conservatives out of the Democratic Party. (At least that was the case in Texas, as outlined in Wayne Thorburn’s Red State.) By the 1980s the process was well underway, as seen by party switches from such politicians as Phil Gramm and Kent Hance, and was mostly complete everywhere except minority majority counties, though in Texas we’re now seeing that Democrat-to-Republican pattern repeat itself with Hispanic majority counties. Smaller cities and suburban voters were where Republicans managed to maintain a foothold during the Democrat-dominated period between FDR’s election in 1932 and Reagan’s in 1980.
“If you look at it just on the numbers, if you add up all racial minorities in the United States with all organized labor or blue-collar workers with everyone who’s living in the cities, it’s a super majority of the population. And it’s pushing 70% of the total. It should, by the numbers, not only be the dominant party, but it should be the only party in the United States. And yet and yet and yet, they keep losing elections by ever more impressive margins.” “All organized labor or blue-collar workers” is another slight of hand, as those are two ever-more-divergent categories. All across the Western world, not just in the U.S., ruling liberal elites can rarely be bothered to hide their contempt for native blue-collar workers, which seems to be one driving factor in their importing immigrant classes to supplant them.
I’m snipping the “but the world changes and politics changes” section (Cold War, digital revolution, Baby Boomers retiring) because it’s all so very non-specific to the question at hand.
“But for the Democrats, this has not been a gift. Three basic things have combined to make it nonfunctional in its current form.”
“First, those liberal, coastally educated, urban living elites, they’re not nearly as united as you might think. And more importantly, they have a hard time resonating their ideas with the rank and file of the United States.” Here’s the first time Zeihan tiptoes up to the central truth that “their ideas,” the whole panoply of radical leftwing social justice, victimhood identity politics, DEI racism, radical feminism, importing millions of illegal aliens, supporting Islamic terrorists killing Israelis, etc., are all profoundly unpopular with everyone outside the leftwing college educated urban elites who make up the ideological core of the Party.
“Most Americans do not own six figures.” Actually, they sort of do, but I think what he meant was most Americans don’t earn six figures. “Most Americans have not graduated from graduate programs. And so, the sort of tunnel vision that you can get if you’re a part of this coastal elite just doesn’t really carry out to others. And when you see people starting to protest for trans rights, that just doesn’t resonate for most of the country.” Americans were more than happy to let the confused freaks do whatever the hell they wanted to with their own bodies, but once the groomers started “transitioning” and mutilating normie children behind their parents’ backs, normie parents started hating Democrats with a deep, righteous anger.
“The second issue is racial.”
“One of the huge mistakes the Democratic Party has made over the last 30 years is to simply bet that, because birth rates were higher under Hispanics than they were under whites, that the country was going to become more and more and more leftist, more and more democratic.” That is, in a nutshell, the John Judis and Ruy Teixeira Emerging Democratic Majority theory. And it 2021, Teixeira said that wasn’t happening.
“Instead, we saw two things happening with specifically the Hispanic population. Number one, they became steadily and steadily more wealthy, which tends to put them over into the Republican camp. And second, Hispanics, especially first and second generation Mexican Americans, are very strong in blue-collar work, specifically the trades like electricity and welding and similar items. Construction. Well, the United States is going through an industrial renaissance where those skill sets are massively in demand. And so if you want to look at politics through the lens of the economic halves and halves nots, the Hispanics have become more and more in the category of the haves moving forward, so for them tax rates have become as important, if not more, for most than things like racial equality.” Except we have racial equality under the law, and republicans support a color blind society based on individualism, while Democrats want perpetual social justice ethnic grievances which well-heeled upper middle class white liberals can signal their virtue by supporting.
“And so more and more of these people have shifted over in the general direction of Trump style Republicans.”
“And the third issue is cultural. If you’re a first or second generation Mexican-American, a first or second generation immigrant from any background, odds are that where you came from is less organized than the United States and less wealthy. You came to pursue the American dream, which means you have some firsthand experience in your family of what a system with weak rule of law looks like. One of the great things that we have forgotten in this country is that most migrants have a deeper degree of religiosity than most Americans. And so when you get a Mexican immigrant or Nigerian immigrant and they come to the United States, they are far more likely to be socially conservative than, say, the social liberals of the coasts.”
“We have all of these things happening at the same time, changing our idea of identity, and the net result is a lot of factions that used to be core to the Democratic coalition are now toss-ups. Hispanics were as likely to vote for Trump as they were likely to vote for Harris. Same for people under age 30. The youth are now in play as well.” No mention of why this might be the case, or why social justice, open borders and Covid lockdown policies are all widely unpopular with “the youths.”
“You pull this all together and at the moment it is absolutely impossible for the Democrats to win any big election unless there’s something else very big in play. Does this mean that the Democrats are dead forever? Not quite what I’m saying. What I’m saying is they can no longer count on winning by the numbers. There has to be another issue out there that motivates.”
Most of the the reasons Zeihan are correct (or at least correct enough), but save Hispanics, there’s very little deeper analysis of why all these various, formerly solid demographic have fallen away from the Democrat fold. And the answer is that the ideas promulgated by the ideological core of the Democrat Party are deeply unpopular. From mutilating children in the name of transsexism to importing millions of illegal aliens to legalizing shoplifting to putting repeat offenders back out on the street, there seems to be no 80/20 hill social justice-infected Democrats aren’t willing to die on.
In a way, the scarcity of details Zeihan provides on the manifest unpopularity of the Democrat Party is less notable than the fact he did a video noticing them at all. After all, a large portion of his bread and butter is speaking at various functions for those same “liberal, coastally educated, urban living elites” that he says are out of touch with much of America. That he can even tiptoe up to the truth indicates that the widespread unpopularity of Democrats has finally so established itself as consensus inside-the-beltway wisdom that it’s no longer taboo to talk about.
But the same thing that’s making the Party so wildly unpopular (the ideological capture of the Party’s core by radical social social justice) is the same thing that prevents the Party from being able to self-correct. The hard left is now so firmly entrenched in the urban centers that make up the Party’s shrinking base that they’ve nominated (and have a puncher’s chance of actually electing) a jihadi commie as mayor of America’s largest city.
A political party exists to win elections, but the Democrat Party’s social justice-infected insane wing is focused on taking complete control away from the corrupt wing, not only for the graft, corruption and patronage, but also to actively foment revolution against capitalism and “fascism” (i.e, anything that stands between their own will to power and complete control of the country). And they’re willing to lose election after election until they achieve that goal.
As the Party shrinks, it becomes ever more shrill and leftwing, and as it becomes ever more shrill and leftwing, the Party shrinks. It’s a self-reinforcing feedback loop, a purity spiral Democrats seem incapable of escaping from.
Maybe by 2050 or so, an elderly Zeihan can post a holographic lecture on how social justice drove Democrats the way of the Whigs…
Here’s a video featuring Jordan Peterson and Jonathan Haidt, author of The Anxious Generation: How the Great Rewiring of Childhood Is Causing an Epidemic of Mental Illness, discussing data showing that a whole lot of depression and anxiety disorders among girls (less so among boys) were soaring at the same time social media (which, for the time-frame they’re talking about, is mostly Facebook, Instagram and Twitter) were taking off.
Jonathan Haidt: “Something weird happened in 2014. Greg Luciano, my my friend who runs the Foundation for Individual Rights of Expression, he noticed it too, he came to talk to me. Something had changed among the students. There was a new kind of new morality driven by anxiety and fragility.”
JH: “So we wrote an Atlantic article called ‘The Coddling of the American Mind.’ We turned that into a book in 2017, we went much deeper.”
JH: “Writing that book in 2017, we have a page where we say, you know, the timing is right for social media. Like social media comes in just at the right time to maybe have contributed, but we don’t really have evidence so that’s it, that’s all we said.”
JH: “2019: I’m collecting evidence, because now it’s clear it’s not just America.”
JH: “First we saw it in all of the Anglophere countries. When you look at levels of internalizing disorders…This is important. It’s not all mental illnesses, it’s not schizophrenia, it’s internalizing disorders, which is preeminently anxiety and depression related disorder.”
JH: “They’re pretty stable, from the late ’90s all the way through 2010, 2011 there’s really no trend in the United States or in the other English English speaking countries. And then, all of a sudden, there’s an elbow like around 2012, 2013 there’s an elbow, and the rates go up very sharply for girls, with more of a curve for boys, and that’s a clue, the different shape is an important clue. But for girls 2011, 2012 no sign of a problem, 2014, 2015 it’s off to the races with depression, anxiety. We see the same thing in self harm.”
JH: “So that’s that was the empirical puzzle that came to us as college professors, and that came to us in the national data, and that’s what that’s what launched me on this book.”
Jordan Peterson: “It’s an important coda that you mentioned there, that it wasn’t only rates of self-reported depression and anxiety. Because I know there was a criticism directed at your work by a psychiatrist who pointed out or claimed that the self-report data might be unreliable.”
JP: “But you pointed out, quite rightly, I thought, that you saw the same data in episodes of self harm, particularly among young women, which is a much more direct behavioral measure of that proclivity for negative emotion.”
JP: “I should point out clinically, just for those who are watching and listening, that anxiety is a response to the the threat of destruction, psychological or physical. Depression is more of a pain response, and it’s got two aspects: It’s heightening of negative emotion, withdrawal in particular, that causes cessation of activity, but also decrease in positive emotion, which is more associated with demoralization and and lack of motivational impetus to move forward. And you describe those as the internalizing disorders.” Not psychosis fragmentation or manic depressive disorder.
JP: “This is quite a particularized, let’s say, epidemic.”
JP: “What drove you to the conclusion, or even to investigate the possibility, that this had something to do with technology generally, and with social media more particularly?”
JH: “Jean Twenge was really the first person to call attention to this. Jean Twenge has been studying generations for 20 years, and she had an article in The Atlantic, in 2017 where The Atlantic chose the title ‘Have Smartphones Destroyed a Generation?’ And so Jean laid out the evidence. It was all correlational, which doesn’t prove it. But the patterns are so consistent, there’s a correlation in time, which is when this new technology is introduced, around 2012.”
JH: “In 2010, teenagers almost all have a flip phone or a basic phone. The iPhone exists, but it’s not very common. The front-facing camera comes out on the iPhone 4 in 2010. Instagram becomes super popular in 2012, so that’s the period where teen social life is changing radically from using a phone to call your friend saying ‘Hey let’s get together this afternoon,’ to spending all day swiping and scrolling and commenting and posting. 2010 to 2015 is the great rewiring of childhood.”
JH: “The increases we’re talking about are are generally between 50 and 100% increases in these measures of of psychopathology for pre-teen girls. You sometimes get 200% increases and for self harm. 10 to 14 year old girls did not used to cut themselves, it was very, very rare before 2012. You get over 200% increase in hospital visits for self harm, so the historical correlation is there. It doesn’t prove it, but there’s no other alternative. And then you have the correlation in time use, that is the people who are heavy users of social media in almost every study are doing much worse.” Until they take kids’ smart phones away, and they show dramatic improvement in mood in one to two weeks.
Though barely touched on in this interview, while this is happening, we see a dramatic increase in during the same time, again disproportionately among girls and women, of an epidemic-like spread of the woke social justice mind virus. Victimhood and cancel culture escape from their initial reservoirs of infection in academia and the Democrat Party and spread among the general population. Many have theorized that women are far more driven by consensus and conformity to social pressure from other women, and that this tendency to knuckle under to woke groupthink, combined with the vector for infection that was social media, explains how quickly the irrational psychosis of social justice spread.
And thus the social media explosion of 2010-2015 primed the pump for full blown epidemic of Trump Derangement Syndrome in 2016…
The death toll from last week’s Texas flooding has passed 100.
For those who don’t understand how a flood this deadly developed so quickly, Brad Johnson in The Texan‘s Fourth Reading newsletter explains:
On Thursday, National Weather Service estimates projected between three and six inches of rain upstream on the Guadalupe River — a problem, but not a five-alarm fire for an area accustomed to that. But things changed rapidly between then and early Friday morning. By 4 a.m. Friday, the rain was falling at 12 inches per hour, according to officials briefed on the situation. Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said he was running along the river at 3 a.m. and while the river was high, it wasn’t an emergency.
But the storm, made up of remnants of Tropical Storm Barry that made landfall in southeastern Mexico, dumped far more in volume than expected on the area, and rather than move on past the county… it just sat there.
The Guadalupe River rose 20 feet in two hours.
The following video of the flood from the 480/San Antonio Street bridge in Center Point, just a bit downstream of Kerrville, shows the Guadalupe going from a damp trickle to a raging torrent overtopping the bridge in 30 minutes:
Certainly there’s room for improvement for warnings for extreme weather events like this (maybe automated up river flood gauges that alert authorities and endangered residents), but it’s hard to plan for something this extreme that happens in the middle of the night. Worse still: “Places like Camp Mystic, the 750-camper summer camp for girls, do not allow cell phones to be carried by the children.”
If you live near a river or in any sort of flood plain, you probably should have water leak detectors and a bugout bag ready for such emergencies.
A lot of Russo-Ukraine War news bubbled up last week when every other damn thing was happening, so here’s a roundup, much (but not all) from Suchomimus. Plus some bits on Russia’s economy and their continuing friction with various neighbors.
Multiple successful Storm Shadow strikes:
“Storm Shadow and Ukrainian-produced cruise missiles hit a train yard in Yasynuvyata, the officer Headquarters of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army plus drones destroy oil depot in Luhansk. Multiple impacts are seen–at least EIGHT missiles hit the train yard. Many more targeted the office headquarters. Six drones impacted the oil depot….One of Ukraine’s biggest missile strikes of the war so far.”
“SAM System Factory Hit By Drones in Izhevsk, Russia – Over 1,300 km From Ukraine. Liutyi drones hit the Kupol Electromechanical Plant which produces Tor and Osa SAM systems for Russia as well as drones, including Shaheds.”
Follow-up satellite imagery for the Izhevsk strike:
Another Shahed drone factory strike, this one in Sergiev Posad near Moscow.
Not a super significant story, but this Russian ammo dump cookoff in Khartsyzk, Donetsk is pretty epic:
Colombian volunteers in Sumy?
Usual Reporting From Ukraine caveats apply.
Russia did manage to carry out a massive missile attack against Kiev, but as usual with Russian missile and drone attacks, it’s not clear that anything of military significance was actually hit.
There’s always talk that Russia’s economy is about to crack due to the strain from their illegal war of territorial aggression (as well western sanctions), but Putin recently announced that Russia would decrease defense spending next year. Given that there’s no way for Russia to recover material and equipment losses to its forces while continuing the war, he must imagine some sort of end to the conflict is near.
Russia economy meltdown as metal production plummets 23% and recession fears soar…
The Russian economy is on the brink of recession, with several key sectors showing dwindling productivity, according to analysis. Alexander Kolyandr from the Center for European Policy Analysis took to X to explain that the country’s manufacturing sector was “losing its mojo”, even in military production.
“The country is in a state of stagflation,” the Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (TsMAKP). “Economic dynamics are declining rapidly, and there is a risk of a technical recession in the second and third quarters, but inflation remains high.”
It’s been less than three weeks since the central bank — supposedly independent from government control — symbolically lowered interest rates: from 21% to 20%. In doing so, it fulfilled a long-standing demand from the Kremlin. It was the first rate cut since September 2022, the year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This marked a break from a long cycle of interest rate hikes aimed at curbing rising prices.
The situation, however, remains dire. Official inflation still hovers around 10% year-on-year, although several independent institutes estimate the real figure to be above 15%. With military spending still running wild, “risks remain skewed towards inflation,” warned Nabiullina. “Our rate cut approach requires greater caution.”
The contradiction facing the central bank is a true reflection of the current state of the Russian economy, which has long dropped out of the world’s top 10 in terms of size. By now, even the Kremlin is beginning to acknowledge the obvious: that the economic boom driven by the war industry is coming to an end and that the savings made before the war are no longer enough.
Maxim Oreshkin, economic advisor to the all-powerful Presidential Executive Office, declared that the emperor has no clothes just before the St. Petersburg Forum: “The model that ensured growth in recent years has largely reached its limit […] We need to advance — not forward, but upward: to the next technological and organizational level.”
Despite those well documented losses, Russia is now sabre rattling about Estonia hosting nuclear-weapon capable F-35 NATO aircraft. Why this is an issue when NATO-member Finland also has F-35s on order is unclear. Also unclear is how Russia thinks it could successfully invade a NATO country when it couldn’t digest Ukraine despite previously possessing considerably higher stores of Soviet-era material and equipment which it has now squandered…
Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan have reportedly reached agreement on a rail line through the Zangezur Corridor, a move that would cut Russia (and Iran) out entirely.
This follows on the heels of a falling out between Azerbaijan and Russia over Azerbaijani nationals being killed in a police raid inside Russia. “All cultural events with ties to Russia were cancelled in protest. A presenter on primetime state television denounced Moscow’s “imperial behavior” toward former Soviet states. On June 30, Azerbaijani authorities arrested two Russian journalists with Russia’s state-funded news agency Sputnik Azerbaijan in Baku. According to media reports, the two were working for the Russian domestic security service, the FSB.” More Azerbaijan arrests of Russian nationals ensued.
This followed on the heels of the Russian shootdown of an Azerbaijani plane last year, and there’s evidently no love lost between Putin and Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev. “The Azerbaijani political scientist and member of parliament Rasim Muzabekov says Baku no longer sees Moscow as an external power in a position to dictate the rules in the Caucasus. He told DW that Azerbaijan had begun to develop its own military and energy infrastructures, and that this, in turn, had annoyed the Kremlin.” No doubt. That’s what happens when you invade much smaller nations on your periphery and get bogged down in a quagmire.
These are just the developments I thought worth highlighting. If you know of others, feel free to share them in the comments below.
If you’re well-read in science fiction, there’s a good chance you’ve read L. Sprague de Camp’s “A Gun for Dinosaur.” Now Scott from Kentucky Ballistics tests just how big a gun you need to take out a ballistic gel replica of a T-Rex skull.
Guns used:
.45 ACP (dual barrel)
10 mm
.44 Magnum
.50 Magnum
12 gauge shotgun
.45-70
.223
.460 Rigby
.577 Tyrannosaur (naturally)
.700 BMG
4 bore (1″)
.950 JDJ
There are evidently only 20 .577 Tyrannosaur rifles, and only four .950 JDJs, in the world. One of the latter sold for just under $1 million last year, so if resurrected cloned dinosaurs do make a comeback, hunting them will probably be a very expensive hobby…
Happy Independence Day! It’s rained most of the last 24 hours here in central Texas, so the good news is no burn ban means we can set off fireworks, but the downside is significant flooding in the Hill Country (Kerville was particularly hard-hit).
The “Big Beautiful Bill” is now law, employment ticks up, more high profile leftist/media perverts busted, Democrats remain stuck on stupid, some Republicans retire, and proof, yet again, that the rules for the well-heeled are different than for other people.
It’s the Friday LinkSwarm!
“Employers added 147,000 jobs in June as U.S. labor market continues to defy expectations.” For the MSM, it’s always “unexpectedly” all the way down.
A Pulitzer Prize-winning Washington Post journalist was arrested and charged after authorities allegedly discovered child porn on his work computer, DC US Attorney Jeanine Pirro announced Friday.
Thomas Pham LeGro, a 48-year-old video editor at the news outlet, was taken into custody on Thursday after FBI agents raided his Washington, DC, home and discovered a folder on his work laptop which contained 11 videos depicting child sexual abuse material, according to Pirro’s office.
FBI agents also discovered “fractured pieces of a hard drive in the hallway outside the room where LeGro’s work laptop was found,” during the execution of the search warrant.
The University of Pennsylvania has agreed to ban transgender athletes from women’s sports and correct records set by transgender swimmer Lia Thomas. The university issued a statement on Tuesday vowing to comply with Title IX on the basis of biological sex and says it will apologize to “disadvantaged” female athletes.
“While Penn’s policies during the 2021-2022 swim season were in accordance with NCAA eligibility rules at the time, we acknowledge that some student-athletes were disadvantaged by these rules,” Penn President J. Larry Jameson said in a statement. “We recognize this and will apologize to those who experienced a competitive disadvantage or experienced anxiety because of the policies in effect at the time.”
The U.S. Education Department and UPenn announced the voluntary agreement as part of a resolution of a federal civil rights case focused on Thomas, the biological male who won a Division I women’s title for the Ivy League university in 2022. The department’s Office for Civil Rights found that UPenn had violated Title IX by allowing a male to compete in women’s sports and occupy female-only facilities.
“Today’s resolution agreement with UPenn is yet another example of the Trump effect in action,” U.S. Secretary of Education Linda McMahon said. “Thanks to the leadership of President Trump, UPenn has agreed both to apologize for its past Title IX violations and to ensure that women’s sports are protected at the University for future generations of female athletes.”
The Office for Civil Rights (OCR) opened the Title IX investigation into UPenn on February 6, following President Donald Trump’s executive order “Keeping Men out of Women’s Sports,” which interpreted Title IX law on the basis of biological sex rather than gender identity. Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972 prohibits discrimination on the basis of sex in any educational program or activity that receives federal financial assistance.
Trump’s diplomatic method, the exact opposite of what standard diplomats recommend, is a roaring success.
The least diplomatic president in U.S. history is scoring diplomatic victories.
Over the last couple of days, Donald Trump has gotten NATO to agree to a defense spending target of 5 percent and backed Canada off imposing a digital services tax on American tech firms.
He’s done this while being loathed by many of his foreign interlocutors. In fact, Trump has executed a near-complete inversion of the typical diplomatic formula. He’s not nice. He’s not conflict-averse. He’s not euphemistic. And yet he’s gotten results.
The NATO commitment, in particular, is potentially historic and could materially strengthen the position of the Western alliance for the long term.
Trump is violating the usual rules of persuasion. Abraham Lincoln famously said: “It is an old and true maxim that ‘a drop of honey catches more flies than a gallon of gall.’” Trump doesn’t hesitate to pour on the gall, often in ALL CAPS on Truth Social.
The leading 19th-century French diplomat Talleyrand said, “A diplomat who says ‘yes’ means ‘maybe,’ a diplomat who says ‘maybe’ means ‘no,’ and a diplomat who says ‘no’ is no diplomat.” Trump says “go to hell” as the start of the negotiation.
He persuades by pressuring.
He coaxes by threatening.
He de-escalates by escalating.
He wins friends and influences people by convincing them he thinks they’re freeloaders and losers.
A lot of this is a function of his personality and his experience as a Gotham real-estate developer with a nose for power dynamics, knack for showmanship, and willingness to court risk. It’s hard to see how his style of international politics will be replicable by a more traditional political figure. But undergirding his approach is a strategic insight into the gap between U.S. military and economic might and that of its allies, and how this meant there was a vast unexploited potential for the U.S. to throw its weight around.
When the U.S president is talking about pulling the plug on NATO, or cutting off trade talks with Canada — as Trump did in response to the proposed digital services tax — it’s going to get everyone’s attention.
The bull standing outside the door of the china shop is a powerful incentive to get along with the bull.
The rest of the conservative movement noticed this no later than, what, 2017? Nice of National Review to catch up…
In a post on social media platform X, FBI Director Kash Patel wrote that $14.6 billion in losses were incurred, while $245 million was seized, as FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino said in a separate post on X that hundreds of people were charged in the case.
“Public corruption will not be tolerated as the Director and I vigorously pursue bad actors who violated their oaths to all of us,” Bongino said, describing the case as the “largest healthcare fraud investigation” in the country’s history.
The investigation encompassed 50 federal districts and 12 state attorneys general, according to the DOJ. State and federal law enforcement agencies also took part, according to the FBI.
A statement issued by the DOJ said that criminal charges were filed against 324 defendants, including 96 doctors, nurse practitioners, pharmacists, and other health care workers across the United States. Officials said that 29 defendants were charged with partaking in transnational criminal groups who allegedly submitted around $12 billion in fraudulent health-related claims to U.S. health insurance companies.
Further, four defendants were apprehended in Estonia based on cooperation with law enforcement agencies in that country, while seven others were arrested at the U.S.–Mexico border or at American airports, the DOJ said.
That organization, federal prosecutors said, is accused of using individuals sent into the United States from other countries to purchase “dozens of medical supply companies located across the United States” before submitting $10.6 billion in fraudulent health care claims to Medicare for medical devices and equipment.
At the same time, that group allegedly exploited stolen identities from U.S. citizens across all 50 states, using their stolen medical information to submit the false claims, according to the DOJ.
In another action announced by the DOJ, federal officials said they filed charges in Illinois against five people, including the owners of two Pakistan-based marketing companies, in relation to a $703 million Medicare fraud scheme.
The defendants allegedly stole Medicare beneficiaries’ confidential information and sold it to laboratories and other medical companies, which then submitted false Medicare claims, according to the statement.
“The defendants allegedly used artificial intelligence to create fake recordings of Medicare beneficiaries purportedly consenting to receive certain products,” the DOJ’s statement said.
Here are some reasons why the Democratic drive to reinvent the party seems to have stalled out—and may have a hard time restarting despite their political opening.
The “’tis but a scratch” problem. In Monty Python and the Holy Grail, the Black Knight insists, against all evidence, that his wounds are not that serious—“’tis but a scratch.” Democrats, in the aftermath of losing two of three elections to the widely-disliked Trump and seeing their coalition re-configured by massive losses among both white and nonwhite working-class voters, are still in denial about how serious their wounds are. They are not but a scratch and cannot be fixed by anything less than a full-scale overhaul of the party’s approach and image. Tinkering around the edges, while easier, will not work.
The breaking point fallacy. Democrats have a hard time thinking outside their own views of Trump and the GOP. They are deeply convinced that Trump is perhaps the worst person to ever walk the earth and find it difficult to relate to voters whose views are more mixed. They are convinced that a breaking point from Trump’s actions will inevitably be reached where voters will wake up and realize Democrats were right all along, with happy political results to follow. This fallacy undergirded Democrats’ thinking in the 2024 campaign with rather unhappy results when that breaking point was not reached. Democrats’ reliably florid responses to Trump’s outrage-of-the-day in 2025 indicates that they are still hoping that breaking point can be reached and that they are puzzled, indeed outraged, that voters have not yet mounted the barricades. Conveniently, the expectation of a breaking point let’s Democrats off the hook from changing very much in their own party.
The “whatever it is, I’m against it” problem. In the classic Marx Brothers movie, Horsefeathers, Groucho uncompromisingly asserts: “whatever it is, I’m against it.” That pretty much sums up Democrats’ approach to Trump administration proposals and actions. With very minor exceptions, Democrats have refused to support any of it, even where these actions are popular and/or are targeted at clear areas of Democratic vulnerability that needed shoring up. Little to no effort has been made to stake out a middle ground that recognizes some of Trump’s actions address areas where Democrats have screwed up, while setting out a better (kinder, gentler?) approach that would more effective and less illiberal. Easier though to adopt Groucho’s approach and avoid the uncomfortable need to acknowledge mistakes and convince voters you won’t make them again.
The rising generations chimera. Many Democrats have seized upon the fact that leading Democratic politicians tend to be quite old, if not ancient (hello, Joe Biden!) and decided what is needed is younger Democrats. The changing of the guard—that’ll do the trick! On net, it seems like a no-brainer to move younger cohorts up in the party who can better communicate with young voters where Democrats have been losing ground. But what if these young communicators aren’t communicating anything to voters that would actually help Democrats dig out of the hole they’re in? Then the changing of the guard will only help at the margins.
Take Zohran Mamdani, the charismatic Millennial who pulled off an upset victory in the New York City Democratic primary and will likely be New York’s next mayor. His energy and media savvy are admirable but his radical cultural politics—only lightly sanded off recently—and his wildly impractical economic plans don’t seem likely to change the image of the Democratic Party in a good way. But he nevertheless will be a pole of attraction in the party, just as AOC and “the Squad” were in the aftermath of the 2018 election—and we saw how well that worked out. Democrats’ thirst for generational excitement, whatever its content, will make it even harder than it already was for Democrats to re-orient the party around an effective majoritarian politics.
Snip.
The “round up the usual suspects” problem. In the movie Casablanca, Captain Reynaud (Claude Rains) concludes the film by saying “round up the usual suspects.” The Democrats have an establishment and establishments don’t like change. Thus, there is a built-in tendency to blame messaging, narrative, lack of coalitional input, etc.—the “usual suspects”—rather than deeper problems of culture, economic policy, and class antagonism. Most recently this tendency was on display in the formation of a Project 2029 group drawn from various sectors of the Democratic establishment to craft a new, improved approach for the Democrats. As the Politico article on the group notes:
Some would-be allies are skeptical that such an ideologically diverse and divergent set of policy minds could craft anything close to a coherent agenda, let alone a politically winning one.
“Developing policies by checking every coalitional box is how we got in this mess in the first place,” said Adam Jentleson, who has spent recent months preparing to open a new think tank called Searchlight. “There is no way to propose the kind of policies the Democratic Party needs to adopt without pissing off some part of the interest-group Borg. And if you’re too afraid to do that, you don’t have what it takes to steer the party in the right direction.”
For Texas voters: “17 Proposed Amendments Head to Voters in November.” Expected a more detailed post on this sometime in October.
“Houston Parents Sue HISD Over Daughter’s Secret Social Gender Transition. A Houston family is taking the state’s largest school district to court, claiming their daughter was socially transitioned by school staff in direct defiance of their explicit instructions.”
Terry and Sarah Osborn, the parents of a Bellaire High School student, filed a federal lawsuit against the Houston Independent School District earlier this week, alleging the school socially transitioned their daughter against their explicit wishes. The lawsuit names several individuals, including Superintendent Mike Miles, Bellaire High School Principal Michael Niggli, school counselor Sarah Ray, and multiple teachers.
According to the suit, more than six Bellaire High School employees referred to the Osborns’ daughter—who is biologically female—using a masculine name and male pronouns for two years. The situation began in ninth grade, when the student’s theater teacher distributed a worksheet asking for students’ names and pronouns. Sarah Osborn specifically requested that the teacher use her daughter’s legal name and female pronouns. However, the student altered the worksheet, crossing out the original entry and writing in “he/him” pronouns.
The parents claim they did not learn about the consistent use of male pronouns by teachers until the student was well into her sophomore year. At that point, they formally requested that teachers revert to using their daughter’s biological pronouns. Despite these repeated requests, the lawsuit alleges that the teachers continued using male pronouns.
By the student’s junior year, the Osborns met with Principal Niggli to address the situation directly. They reiterated their concerns about the school’s handling of the matter. Principal Niggli attempted a compromise: teachers would refer to the student only by her last name to avoid using any pronouns at all. The Osborns, however, rejected this compromise and again instructed the school to use their daughter’s legal name and female pronouns.
The lawsuit also notes that the Osborns filed a request under the Texas Public Information Act, seeking employee communications regarding their daughter, HISD’s policies on the use of preferred names and pronouns, and documentation related to the student’s counseling sessions over the years. Elizabeth Rice, HISD’s attorney, responded that the request was too broad and asked for clarification. When the Osborns’ attorney insisted the request was sufficiently specific, Rice again claimed it was overly broad and said fulfilling it would require producing at least 77,344 pages of emails.
The lawsuit argues that HISD’s responses are evidence of “widespread past and ongoing treatment of their daughter as a boy by its employees,” carried out without parental consent and in direct opposition to explicit parental instructions.
The Osborns are asking the court to declare HISD’s policies in violation of the First and Fourteenth Amendments, prohibit the district from using masculine pronouns or an alternate name for their daughter, and award attorney’s fees along with compensatory and punitive damages. The complaint states the district violated the parents’ “fundamental parental rights” under the Fourteenth Amendment and their “sincerely held religious beliefs” protected by the First Amendment.
Not only should the school district pay, but everyone involved in this should having their teaching certificate revoked and never be allowed to teach in the state again.
Yeah, Kerville has been hit hard by the flooding:
More good news: “Hamas leader and Oct. 7 mastermind Hakham Muhammad Issa Al-Issa killed in airstrike, IDF says.” Unlike Democrats, I think it’s a good thing when terrorist leaders get killed.
Diddy do it, but according to a jury, not all of it. “Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs was convicted of a prostitution-related offense but acquitted Wednesday of sex trafficking and racketeering charges.”
A steady stream of reports is now developing that suggests Covid vaccinations may indeed hurt fertility and pregnancy outcomes.
I reported on a rat study that clearly showed fertility was impacted after the animals were injected with mRNA Covid vaccines. A recently published study (not peer reviewed yet) looking at data from Israeli women found a substantially higher-than-expected number of eventual fetal losses associated with Covid vaccination during gestational weeks 8-13.
A newly published peer-reviewed study analyzing nationwide data from the Czech Republic has reported a significant association between Covid vaccination and reduced fertility rates in women of childbearing age. The study, which examined approximately 1.3 million women aged 18–39 between January 2021 and December 2023, found that women who received the Covid vaccine before conception had a substantially lower rate of successful conceptions (“SC”, i.e., pregnancies that resulted in live births) compared to their unvaccinated counterparts.
Of course, vaccine mandate advocates swore up and down it was absolutely safe. Meanwhile, it seemsto be harming those with very low chances of dying from Flu Manchu…
“Florida Gov. DeSantis Announces Tax Holiday On Guns.” September 8 through December 21. Your move, Greg Abbott…
On July 1, District Judge Ann Donnelly of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York ruled that there was sufficient evidence to proceed with a 16-count indictment against Huawei and its subsidiaries.
Huawei, which is closely tied to the Chinese communist regime, stands accused of racketeering, stealing trade secrets from six U.S. companies, and committing bank fraud.
With Donnelly’s ruling, the case will move forward toward trial. Currently, the proceedings are scheduled to begin on May 4, 2026.
Huawei stands charged with using a Hong Kong-based front company, Skycom, to conduct business in Iran in violation of U.S. sanctions and with misleading banks in order to facilitate more than $100 million in illegal money transfers.
Additionally, the indictment alleges that Huawei engaged in racketeering to expand its global brand.
“Harris County Agencies Reportedly Spent Millions With No Paper Trail.” Even lefty County Judge Lina Hidalgo has been raising the alarm over it. Maybe she didn’t get her cut…
“Famed Mexican boxer Julio César Chávez Jr. was arrested for overstaying his visa and lying on a green card application and will be deported to Mexico, where he faces organized crime charges.” (Hat tip: Dwight.)
“Spanish Operator of Proposed High-Speed Rail Liquidates American Subsidiary.” Yet another roadblock to the pie-in-the-sky Texas high speed rail project that will never be built.
So remember that story a while back in New York magazine’s The Cut, when the (I kid you not) Finance Reporter got scammed, withdrew $50,000 in cash from a bank, and handed it to a total stranger? To a lot of people, the details didn’t add up. Can you even withdraw $50,000 in cash without filling in a boatload for forms or triggering fraud warnings? One reporter went digging for the truth, and found out that, yeah, it looks like it’s true and you can just waltz out with that much cash…if you’re related to the Roosevelts.
So Diamond Distributors declared bankruptcy, and the new owners evidently decided, “Hey we can just sell all this consignment inventory we have, not pay the publishers for it, and use the money to pay back this Chase loan.” The publishers disagree…
I don’t know how much faith to put in the following information (“China is a riddle wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a memecoin” said some famous wag (all quotes approximate)), but several people who read the tea leaves of the Chinese Communist Party say that President Xi Jinping has quietly been relieved of power.
Between late May and early June, Chinese President Xi Jinping simply disappeared. No parades. No spotlights. No front pages in People’s Daily that once displayed him daily. Instead, other senior Communist Party leaders hosted visiting dignitaries in Beijing’s grand halls.
According to CNN-News18, top intelligence officials say, “Xi Jinping’s absence is not unusual, and China has a history of sidelining prominent leaders.” The method is familiar — big names stay on paper, power moves quietly elsewhere.
When Xi reappeared in early June, it was not the spectacle the world expected. He sat down with Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, but the setting was unusually small. Gone was the red-carpet flourish. “Xi appeared tired, distracted, and generally unwell at a meeting with the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in early June,” noted the Belarusian presidential press service.
Even stranger, Xi’s personal security detail has been halved. His father’s grand mausoleum has lost its official status.
When they dishonor your ancestors, that’s a big sign things aren’t hunky dory.
And after a recent call with Donald Trump, Chinese state TV did something unheard of — it referred to Xi without any title. Later they patched it up, but the slip revealed cracks.
While Xi’s health and image fade, power appears to shift. General Zhang Youxia, who helped Xi secure an historic third term, is now rumoured to be calling the shots in the People’s Liberation Army. But he fell out with Xi soon after.
One source said: “Currently, real power lies with General Zhang Youxia, the First Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), who is backed by CCP seniors from the Hu Jintao faction.”
Dozens of generals loyal to Xi have vanished or been replaced. Rumours swirl about secret purges. “The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has previously done this with three notable leaders, reducing their operational authority to mere ceremonial roles,” top intelligence officials told CNN-News18.
Whispers of a new face have also emerged. Wang Yang, who once served as a respected technocrat, is now spoken of as Xi’s likely replacement. Reports claim, “Wang Yang, recently appointed to lead the Chinese Communist Party, has been spoken of as a successor to Xi Jinping.”
Once lifted by Deng Xiaoping from obscurity, Wang represents reform. He is seen as calm, pro-market and less confrontational. Intelligence insiders told CNN-News18, “Wang Yang is being groomed as a reform-oriented future leader and technocrat.”
Back in 2022, the world watched as Xi’s predecessor Hu Jintao was guided off the stage at the Party Congress in full view of cameras. China’s Xinhua agency said Mr Hu felt unwell. But Hu looked reluctant. BBC’s Stephen McDonell noted, “Mr Hu, 79, appeared reluctant to move.” He even reached for Xi’s notes before the sitting President brushed him off.
You know that had to sting. But evidently Hu still had a lot of pull behind the scenes.
What many saw then as a power play now takes on new meaning. The silent exit of Hu — once a symbol of collective leadership — marked Xi’s total grip. Or so it seemed.
China’s economic engine is spluttering. Youth unemployment is stuck at 15 per cent. Real estate sits stagnant. Semiconductor plans have collapsed. National debt has ballooned to over $50 trillion. Local protests and factory unrest are flaring up.
Gregory W. Slayton, a former US diplomat, summed it up: “With over $50 trillion in total debt… and an unemployment rate in depression territory… it is not surprising that local riots, factory arsons and anti-government protests have flared all over China.”
Lei’s Real Talk (see here for a brief discussion of that channel) also sees signed that Xi has lost an internal power struggle:
“CCP politics is getting wild. Today we’ll discuss Xi Jinping’s new boss and his rival Zhang Youxia’s relentless purge in the military. And the two are related. Okay, let’s get started. So for months rumors and whispers have swirled that Xi Jinping has lost control of the party to Zhang Youxia and the party elders.”
“Xi Jinping supposedly has lost control uh to Zhang Youxia and the party elders. But this isn’t a simple case of one faction overpowering another. Even within the ranks of the party elders, there are competing priorities for what China’s next phase should look like. Some want to save the regime from collapse. Others want to push for political reforms. Some focus on reviving the economy. And there are those who want absolute control just to survive this life and death struggle.”
“Youxia has supposedly gambled everything to take down Xi Jinping.”
“For a few weeks, the political center in Beijing appeared deadlocked. Xi Jinping disappeared, and then resisted change. Zhang Youxia, backed by military force, demanded it, and the party elders were caught in the middle trying to maintain a fragile balance.”
“Then, in the last week or so, Xi Jinping suddenly re-emerged in public with greater visibility. He scored a minor win when Beijing announced that she would appear at the September 3rd World War II Victory Day parade. Whether he will inspect the troops or simply give a speech remains unclear.”
“Meanwhile, Zhang Youxia has been steadily expanding his grip. Miao Hua, one of Xi Jinping’s most trusted generals, was officially removed. Zhang has started moving into the Navy and the Air Force to root out Xi’s remaining loyalists.”
“All the signs and rumors pointing to Xi Jinping’s loss of power reached a new phrase yesterday when Xi Jinping himself made an announcement on behalf of the party. In effect, he confirmed his own decline.”
After not announcing Politburo meeting minutes in May, the CCP made a single terse announcement at the end of June, saying the meeting was to review “regulations on the work of the Central Party Decision Making and Consolidation Body.”
“This body basically assumes the very role that Xi Jinping once held in making decisions. Meaning Xi is no longer the highest authority in the CCP. He now has a boss, and that boss is this new decision-making body.”
“This new body isn’t just for advice. It controls the full chain of power from policy formation to execution. In fact, in effect, it is now the de facto highest governing body of the CCP.”
This body “has already been operating in secret for some time.”
“His opponents are forcing [Xi] to be the one who announces it, in order to make the power transition appear orderly, legitimate, and as if it were orchestrated by Xi Jinping himself.
There’s much more in the video, including a several People’s Liberation Army generals thought to be close to Xi who have been suddenly relieved of command, including members of Xi’s “Fujian Clique” and members of his beloved Rocket Force, “Since Miao’s downfall last fall, a wave of senior officers have been arrested or investigated. And these individuals share two things in common. One, they all belong to Xi’s loyalist faction. And two, they mostly come from the air force, the navy, or the rocket force. Almost none from the uh the army or the ground forces. Why? Well, because Xi Jinping’s plan to invade Taiwan relied primarily on those three branches. Meanwhile, the ground force which long has been Zhang Youxia’s base or domain, was largely sidelined under Xi Jinping. But now, after a sweeping purge of the air force, the navy and the rocket force, it has become painfully clear who has been purging these generals, and who truly holds military power in China, and it is not Xi Jinping.”
Is Xi Jinping actually out of power? I’m not one capable of reading these tea leaves directly, but the one who can seem to think so. Indeed, rumors of a purge of Xi loyalists in the military date back to March.
Does this mean an invasion of Taiwan is off the table in the near term? Very possibly. In addition to leadership purges of the very forces tasked with carrying out such an invasion, Zhang Youxia evidently told Xi Jinping that his 2027 invasion deadline wasn’t practical. Then again, since Zhang was previously head of the PLA’s General Armaments Department, maybe he just wants to wait until China has better weapons.
Does it mean a less confrontational stance by China to the United States and the west in general? Again, very possibly. Hu Jintao was notably less confrontational than Xi, and possible presidential successor Wang Yang (as well as possible CCP premier pick Hu Chunhua) are considered Hu Jintao proteges.
Also, President Trump may the CCP shakeup as an opportunity to negotiate an even-more-favorable trade deal, and maybe clear up other points of friction (such as the South China Sea).
It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out…
