Iran Strikes: Day 4

U.S. and Israeli are still hitting targets, and Iran is still retaliating by hitting every other country on the Persian Gulf. Here are some significant updates from the war in Iran:

  • IDF ‘flattens’ building where Iran’s Assembly of Experts was picking Khamenei’s successor.”

    The IDF targeted a building in which Tehran’s 88-member Assembly of Experts was meeting to choose Iran’s next supreme leader, Israeli sources told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.

    Iranian news agencies reported that the building was “flattened” during the Israeli strikes.

    No injuries or deaths resulting from the strike have been reported as of early Tuesday evening.

    Earlier on Tuesday, Iran’s ISNA news agency cited a member of the Assembly of Experts as saying that choosing the successor to the previous supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, “won’t take long.”

    So IDF wiped out not only the top guy and his successor, but also all the likely successors as well…

  • Suchomimus has damage assessment from coalition naval strikes:

    Highlights:

    • IRINS Makran, a former tanker converted to a forward base ship and Iran’s largest naval vessel, is on fire.
    • A bunch of smaller ships at Bandar Abbas were also likely hit.
    • Several frigates likely sunk, and one possibly sunk for the third time.
    • Lots of stuff hit at Konark naval base in the southeast, both ships and base infrastructure, including a floating dock. IRINS Jamaran is no longer on fire, but is partially underwater.
    • Multiple targets hit at the Iranian naval base at Bandar-e-Jask.
  • We finally get to see those Israeli space lasers in action!

  • Iran managed to hit the American embassy in Saudi Arabia with drones.
  • They also got drones close enough to start fires at Ras Tanura, the Saudi’s largest oil refinery.
  • The Qataris are already joining in the strikes against Iran, and the Saudis might follow suit. “These two countries have the largest and most capable air forces in the Gulf. Qatar can field 22 Eurofighter Typhoon, 40 F-15QA, and 36 Rafale aircraft. Saudi Arabia operates 68 F-15C/D, 149 F-15S/SR/SA, 71 Eurofighter Typhoon, and 77 Tornado aircraft.”
  • Did Iran hit UAE THAAD missile defense radar sites?

  • “Iraqi and Pakistani mobs tried to storm a U.S. consulate and embassy. It didn’t go so well for them.”

    On Sunday, mobs of young practitioners of the Religion of Peace™ stormed the U.S. consulate in Karachi (Pakistan) and the U.S. embassy in Baghdad (Iraq).

    Iraqi police managed to put down their riot before things got too spicy, but in Pakistan, the Marines got a chance to put their training into action, killing 10 and wounding dozens more as rioters pried open the consulate’s gate (local security forces were also on-site, including the Pakistan Rangers).

    Another 12 people were killed by local police in the north of the country as a mob stormed U.N. offices.

  • Seeing lots of reports that the CIA is arming the Kurds to help overthrow the regime, but the source seems to be CNN, so naturally I’m treating that with several grains of salt.
  • That’s my quick impression of the news out of theater. If you think Imissed something significant, feel free to share it in the comments below.

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    9 Responses to “Iran Strikes: Day 4”

    1. 10x25mm says:

      A submarine, presumably American, torpedoed and sank the Iranian light frigate Dena (Mowj class) off the coast of Sri Lanka. The Dena was returning from the India International Fleet Review 2026.

      Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei survived the Day 1 attacks and is now expected to be the leading contender to become the next Ayatollah. He lacks a clerical background, but ruthlessly lead the 2009 Iranian uprising suppression.

      The attack on the Assembly of Experts building yesterday killed no one. The Assembly of Experts is expected to select a new Ayatollah later today.

    2. 10x25mm says:

      None of the Bandar Abbas BDA reports account for Iran’s three Project 636 Varshavyanka submarines (Improved Kilo). Iran upgraded them to Project 636.3 (Improved Kilo II) capabilities last year.

      The MKD Vyom, a Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker (another effectively U.S. flagged) was attacked and set on fire by an Iranian USV about 50 nautical miles north of Muscat, Oman. The ship is burning and has been abandoned.

      AAA reports the U.S. national average regular gasoline price at the pump rose by $0.09 to $3.198 per gallon over the last 24 hours. 2.8%

      AAA reports the national average diesel fuel price at the pump rose by $0.14 to $ 4.038 over the last 24 hours. 3.5%

      Most of the major oil indices are relatively unchanged this morning. Diesel fuel on the Frankfurt bourse is trading in a narrow range, unchanged from yesterday.

    3. jeff says:

      Interesting times. Thank you for keeping up on events.

    4. D Liddle says:

      Firstly, a US SSN surface kill with a Mk48 is a big news. Second, there’s no accounting for the IRGC Kilos because there won’t be, at least not for a while. Sunk submarines, especially if killed by other hunter killers, tell no tales.

    5. 10x25mm says:

      “Second, there’s no accounting for the IRGC Kilos because there won’t be, at least not for a while. Sunk submarines, especially if killed by other hunter killers, tell no tales.”

      I am so old I can remember the Ukrainians (actually the Brits) yucking it up when they falsely claimed to have destroyed a Project 636.3 in Novorossiysk, on December 15th. They even provided AI faked satellite photos. Think we might have made some mention had we attacked one.

      The Project 636.3 Varshavyanka submarines are known as the “Black Holes” by the NATO IC due to their advanced stealth. They also carry 18 torpedos and 12 cruise missiles when when fully loaded.

    6. D Liddle says:

      Yes, I am aware they’re “known as Black Holes”. I’m also aware that they’re crewed by Iranians, so…

    7. 10x25mm says:

      The New York Times reported this morning that operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security quietly reached out through a third party intelligence service to the CIA to discuss terms for ending the conflict, according to anonymous officials. This report has roiled the commodity markets.

      The IRGC’s Tasnim news agency immediately challenged the NYT report:

      “The article in The New York Times is a complete lie and psychological warfare. Iran will continue without hesitation….”

      None of the MIS leadership has been killed and their structure is intact. The MIS is effectively part of the IRGC. So it is unlikely that different elements within MIS are pursuing different goals.

    8. Malthus says:

      Last night we sunk Iran’s prize ship, Soleimani. Looks like POTUS got him twice–Pete Hegseth

    9. Malthus says:

      “AAA reports the U.S. national average regular gasoline price at the pump rose by $0.09 to $3.198 per gallon over the last 24 hours. 2.8%”

      So this is the catastrophic price hike you warned about? Weren’t gas prices higher under Biden?

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