Not one but two Iranian naval commanders get dirtnapped, more than 10,000 Iranian targets have been hit, Iran getting 12 year olds to join the fight, and claims it’s reinforced Kharg Island.
The latest CENTCOM update from Admiral Brad Cooper:
Highlights:
Over 10,000 Iranian targets hit. More counting Israeli strikes.
“We’ve destroyed 92% of the Iranian Navy’s largest vessels.”
“Iran’s drone and missile launch rates are down over 90%.”
“Today, we have damaged or destroyed over two-thirds of Iran’s missile, drone, and naval production facilities and shipyards, and we’re not done yet.”
“Now, in their eighth decade of flight, our B-52 bombers are executing strikes into Iran with up to 70,000 pounds of munitions on each mission.”
Also from Admiral Cooper: “Israel has eliminated the commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Navy, Admiral Alireza Tangsiri.” He was supposedly the guy overseeing blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel also hit two “key naval cruise missile production sites in Tehran. IAF fighter jets targeted facilities used by the Iranian regime to develop and manufacture long-range naval cruise missiles capable of destroying targets at sea and on land.”
Israeli fighter jets, on Tuesday, struck Iran’s main weapons production site. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) described the fortified underground site in the central Iranian city of Isfahan as the regime’s “most central explosives production facility.”
The “Israeli Air Force, acting on IDF intelligence, completed a wide-scale wave of strikes, targeting the Iranian regime’s military-industrial production facilities in Isfahan,” the Israeli military announced Tuesday evening. “The IDF confirms that it struck the most central production site for explosive materials in Iran, where the Iranian regime developed and produced explosive materials for various of weapons.”
Israel had hit the facility extensively last year, but they were trying to rebuild it.
“Israel hit a naval facility in Iran’s Caspian Sea port of Bandar Anzali and has targeted a military supply route used by Moscow and Tehran to transfer weapons….The Israeli military said the strike hit dozens of targets, including warships, a command centre and a shipyard used to maintain vessels. Verified images showed damage to Iran’s naval headquarters and destroyed vessels.”
Iran is winning so hard they have to recruit 12-year olds. “Iran has said that children as young as 12 can join the war, country’s state media quoted Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) official as saying that the minimum age for participation in war-related support roles has been lowered.” Much like they used 12 to 17 year olds to clear minefields in the Iran-Iraq war.
“The United States has deployed uncrewed drone speedboats for patrols as part of its operations against Iran, the Pentagon said, the first time Washington has confirmed using such vessels in an active conflict.”
The MSM may be against the war, but the Iranian people are for it. (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
Don Lemon finds out that an American of Persian descent is 100% behind the war:
WATCH: Don Lemon: “How do you feel about the war?”
Young Man: “I'm Persian. I support Donald Trump 100%. The Islamic regime kills woman. They killed 50,000 people in two days. A lot of them believe in death [to] all Americans. I 100% support Trump.”
More regime honchos dead, America and Irseal are (try to contain your shock) winning, a bad weekend for the KC-135, a Dem uber-lawyer backs Trump on Iran, and Israel is hunting Basij in the streets of Tehran. It’s your Iraq war update, incorporating news from late Friday until now.
Also, I keep getting the occasional 429 errors that require Bluehost support to snip long-running processes that they won’t give me access fix without handing them more money (which isn’t happening). An optimization scan brought up suggestions for improving performance, some highly impractical (no, I’m going to hand-optimize WordPress generated JavaScript), but one of the things spinning up long threads is Twitter embeds, so I’m going to try to do less of that and just link and summarize rather than embed. I’ve also updated and turned the caching plugin back on (turned off in a previous Bluehost troubleshooting session), so I’m hoping that will speed things up as well.
Israeli forces killed the Iranian regime’s security chief and de facto leader, Ali Larijani, in a Tuesday morning airstrike that has the potential to foment greater chaos within the Islamic Republic’s remaining leadership.
The IDF announced that Larijani was killed through “a precise strike” on his location near Tehran.
“His elimination adds to the elimination of dozens of senior commanders and leaders of the Iranian terror regime, who were eliminated by the IDF during Operation Roaring Lion, and constitutes a further blow to the Iranian regime’s abilities to manage and coordinate hostile activity against the State of Israel,” the IDF wrote in its statement.
After Ali Khamenei’s death, Larijani emerged as the country’s de facto leader, consolidating his power and overseeing combat operations against Israel and other Arab nations in the region. Along with his brother, Sadeq, Larijani waged outsized influence in the Iranian leadership and positioned himself as a successor after Khamenei’s death. He also served as secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, the body that orchestrated attacks on Israel and led efforts to violently suppress the Iranian people.
“During the most recent wave of protests against the Iranian terror regime, Larijani advanced violent enforcement measures and repression operations, and personally oversaw the massacre that was carried out against Iranian protestors,” the IDF said. “Larijani led the regime’s national-security coordination and directed its international activity, including engagement with members of the axis.”
Hilarious if true: “Missile hit Sepah Bank digital security center in Tehran.”
A missile strike hit the digital security center of Sepah Bank in Tehran early on Wednesday, according to information received by Iran International.
The building, located on Haghani Street, was destroyed in the attack while the bank was processing salary payments for military personnel.
The services at Sepah Bank and Melli Bank Iran remained widely disrupted for a second day, with online banking unavailable and only card-based services operating.
FACT 1: Iran’s missile capability has been functionally destroyed.
As of Day 6, Adm. Brad Cooper (CENTCOM) confirmed Iranian missile attacks declined roughly 90 percent since strikes began [ISW, March 5, 2026]. Per joint intelligence assessment (IDF/CENTCOM briefing), approximately 75% of all launchers destroyed; 100–200 remain. The IRGC Aerospace Force — Iran’s primary instrument of long-range conventional power projection — has been catastrophically degraded in nine days. “Hundreds” of warheads destroyed (conventional missile warheads — Iran has no deployed nuclear warheads). Defense industrial base under systematic attack. This is not a setback. This is the functional end of Iran’s power projection capability.
Fact 2 has been edited back from Iran’s nuclear program being 8-15 years to reconstitute, to being substantially destroyed for the the immediate future.
FACT 3: The Strait of Hormuz is closed — not by mines, but by insurance actuaries.
Seven of twelve International Group P&I Clubs cancelled war risk coverage on March 1–2, 2026. These seven clubs insure approximately 90% of the world’s ocean-going commercial tonnage. War risk premiums surged over 1,000%. The result: tanker traffic through Hormuz collapsed from a pre-conflict baseline of approximately 138–153+ vessels per day (figures vary by data provider: Lloyd’s List/Kpler cite ~138; CSIS/Starboard cite 153+) to as few as 3 commercial transits recorded by Windward.ai AIS tracking on March 7; a near-total shutdown. Iran achieved a de facto blockade by making the risk-reward calculation of commercial transit economically irrational, without firing a single mine.
FACT 4: The US is the primary economic beneficiary of this crisis.
Brent crude has risen from $72/barrel (pre-conflict) to $106.81/barrel on March 8, 2026 (Day 9), with an intraday spike to $110 when Asian markets opened Sunday evening — the first time Brent has exceeded $100 in nearly four years, and up 50%+ from the $60/barrel that started 2026. WTI (US crude futures) hit $106.57 (+17.2% on the day). A new cascade has begun: Gulf producers are being forced to cut output as storage fills — Iraq’s production has collapsed 60%, UAE and Kuwait have begun cuts. Goldman Sachs warned Friday night that the Hormuz shock is now “17 times larger” than the peak Russia disruption of April 2022 and projects Brent could reach $150/barrel by end of March if Hormuz flows remain depressed. The US is a net petroleum exporter. Every $10/barrel increase in oil costs China and Japan hundreds of millions per day while benefiting US shale producers and LNG exporters (Cheniere, Shell, ExxonMobil). Qatar suspended LNG production. CSIS senior fellow Clayton Seigle: “A deficit of 20 million barrels per day is hitting global oil market balances with no sign of relief.” The Washington Post confirmed explicitly: “The conflict has hit Europe and Asia harder than the United States.”
FACT 5: Ali Khamenei is dead. His son is not a legitimate successor.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated February 28, 2026, in a joint US-Israeli airstrike on his Tehran compound — Israeli jets dropped 30 bombs in daylight with zero effective Iranian air defense response. Mojtaba Khamenei, his son, was named Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts on March 8. Mojtaba is a Hojjatoleslam (mid-ranking cleric), not an Ayatollah — his theological credentials are below what the constitution’s spirit requires. He has never held a formal government position. The regime has chosen dynastic succession in a self-described revolutionary republic. This legitimacy deficit is the long-term vulnerability. [CONFIRMED — NYT, Reuters, P1B]
DataRepublican assume there will be no land war. But she’s working from the assumption that such a land war will require occupying all of Iran, rather than, say, Tehran and various oil exporting ports.
FACT 7: China is losing 1.7 million barrels per day of discounted Iranian oil and faces secondary sanctions.
China bought approximately 90% of Iran’s oil exports at sanction-discount prices. That supply is gone. Higher global oil prices hit China’s economy directly. The February 2026 Executive Order imposes tariffs on any country purchasing Iranian oil — aimed directly at Chinese “teapot” refineries in Shandong Province. The US simultaneously disrupted both of China’s discounted petro-state suppliers (Iran and Venezuela). China is watching US military capabilities through its satellites and reading the Taiwan signal.
FACT 8: The Mosaic Defense kept Iran fighting but cannot project offensive power.
Iran’s 31 autonomous provincial IRGC commands, each with pre-delegated launch authority, are firing pre-authorized strike packages without central coordination. This means the regime cannot be decapitated; missiles keep flying. But the same decentralization that enables survival prevents the complex multi-axis offensive operations that would actually threaten US interests at scale. The 90% launch decline is the empirical proof: what remains is dispersed residue, not a coherent military campaign. [ASSESSED — CEPA, P1B, P2A mosaic paradox]
FACT 9: The Iranian economy was already at collapse threshold before the war began.
Pre-war data: rial at 1.45 million per US dollar (December 2025 peak); 49% inflation; negative GDP growth; government budget deficit at 6%+ of GDP. The January 2026 protests — the largest in Iranian history, with 3,000–30,000 killed by the regime — were triggered directly by rial collapse. The war adds destroyed infrastructure, disrupted trade, severed oil revenue, and accelerating secondary sanctions. The economic collapse is not a future risk; it is an ongoing reality that predates Operation Epic Fury.
FACT 10: The Axis of Resistance has been substantially degraded.
Syria land bridge severed (Assad fell December 8, 2024). Hezbollah “dramatically weakened” by 2024 Israeli offensive; Nasrallah killed September 2024; Iran-Hezbollah land corridor gone. Hamas catastrophically degraded after 18+ months of Israeli ground operations; IRGC’s Hamas portfolio manager Saeed Izadi killed June 2025. Houthis’ stockpiles reduced by Operation Rough Rider (2025); Houthis “staying out of the Iran-US fight for now” (Al Jazeera, March 7, 2026). Iraqi PMF taking active US strikes. Iran’s 40-year investment in regional proxy power has been substantially degraded — not dismantled. Hezbollah retains organizational structure, partial rocket inventory, and political control of southern Lebanon. Hamas retains organizational elements outside Gaza.
I feel that most of this is probably correct. And that’s just the topline analysis; there’s a lot more in-depth data and analysis at the link. (Hat tip: Borepatch.)
You know who likes the chances of America and Israel winning the war? Al Jazeera.
When you look at what has actually happened to Iran’s principal instruments of power – its ballistic missile arsenal, its nuclear infrastructure, its air defences, its navy and its proxy command architecture – the picture is not one of US failure. It is one of systematic, phased degradation of a threat that previous administrations allowed to grow for four decades….
The campaign has moved through two distinct phases. The first suppressed Iran’s air defences, decapitated its command and control, and degraded its missile and drone launch infrastructure. By March 2, US Central Command announced local air superiority over western Iran and Tehran, achieved without the confirmed loss of a single American or Israeli combat aircraft.
The second phase, now under way, targets Iran’s defence industrial base: missile production facilities, dual-use research centres and the underground complexes where remaining stockpiles are stored. This is not aimless bombing. It is a methodical campaign to ensure that what has been destroyed cannot be rebuilt.
Iran now faces a strategic dilemma that tightens every day. If it fires its remaining missiles, it exposes launchers that are promptly destroyed. If it conserves them, it forfeits the ability to impose costs of the war. Missile and drone launch data suggest Iran is rationing its remaining capacity for politically timed salvoes rather than sustaining operational tempo.
This is a force managing decline, not projecting strength.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is dominating the critical commentary. US Senator Chris Murphy has called it evidence that President Donald Trump misjudged Iran’s capacity to retaliate. CNN has described it as proof that the administration has lost control of the war’s escalation.
The economic pain is real: Oil prices have surged, a record 400 million barrels of oil will be released from global reserves, and Gulf states are facing drone and missile strikes on their energy infrastructure.
But this framing inverts the strategic logic. Closing the strait was always Iran’s most visible retaliatory card, and always a wasting asset. About 90 percent of Iran’s own oil exports pass through Kharg Island and then the strait.
China, Tehran’s largest remaining economic partner, cannot receive Iranian crude while the strait is shut. Every day the blockade continues, Iran severs its own economic lifeline and alienates the one major power that has consistently shielded it at the United Nations. The closure does not just hurt the global economy; it accelerates Iran’s isolation.
Meanwhile, the naval assets Iran needs to sustain the blockade – fast-attack boats, drones, mines, shore-based antiship missiles – are being degraded daily. Its naval bases at Bandar Abbas and Chahbahar have been severely damaged.
The question is not whether the strait reopens but when and whether Iran retains any naval capacity to contest it. Critics compare the challenge of escorting a hundred tankers daily to an impossible logistical burden. But you do not need to escort tankers through a strait if the adversary no longer has the means to threaten them. That is the operational trajectory.
Strait of Hormuz update: “War risk insurance peaks at 5% of hull value. Insurance costs reach highest level since Iran-Iraq Tanker War (1980s). Oil tanker valued at $100M now costs $5M to insure for single transit. Strait effectively closed despite technical navigation possibility.”
“Reports indicate clashes between security forces and citizens around Chaharbagh Square in Tehran. The sound of gunfire can be heard.” Not the only area where such clashes are reported.
Five KC-135 tankers damaged in an Iranian missile strike at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia:
Suchomimus notes that there’s simply not a lot of space to park at that base, so there’s going to be risk parking so many tankers (or other large aircraft) there. None of the planes were destroyed, and all are being repaired.
Iranian hovercraft base at Bandar Abbas hit:
I don’t get to use the “Hovercraft” tag nearly enough…
Famous Democrat lawyer David Boies thinks Trump is doing the right thing in Iran and “Democrats should get behind the President, and make sure that he finishes the job.”
Boies, a Democrat, argues passionately in favor of the war, and scolds people—mainly other Democrats—for, in his mind, letting their dislike of President Trump affect their opinion of attacking Iran. As he writes, “If we believe that Iran presents a serious threat, we need to support the president on this issue. There’s plenty to disagree with him about, and we don’t need to like or admire him. But on Iran we should be on common ground.”
Another successful Iranian strike (or possibly Iranian-linked militia) in Iraq:
BIG: A drone strike hit the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad’s Green Zone, damaging or disabling the embassy’s C-RAM air defense system (C-RAM's radar) and striking a helipad.
Day 10 of the Iran War: Oil spikes then falls, Iran gets a new theoretical Supreme Leader, China’s low cost GPS substitute is just as crappy as their other MilTech, the gulf states are investing in Ukrainian MilTech, and Habitual Linecrosser tries to cut through the fog of war.
He told CBS News “I think the war is very complete, pretty much”, and said the US was “very far ahead of schedule”
Speaking to NBC, he left open the prospect of acquiring Iranian oil, saying “certainly people have talked about it”
In an interview with the New York Post, he said the administration was “nowhere near” making a decision on whether to order US troops into Iran
Speaking to Republican lawmakers, Trump said the US was drawn into a “short-term” military operation in Iran to “get rid of some very evil people”
He went on to say: “We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough”
Trump told the New York Post he is “not happy” with Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, but at his press briefing later did not make clear who he wants to take his place – or how that will be achieved
At his press briefing, Trump reiterated that the operation in Iran has been a “tremendous success”, but also added that he wants to ensure Iran cannot develop nuclear weaponry “for a very long time” – a much bigger task
The US still has targets in Iran, Trump tells reporters, but they could be taken out “in one day”
Theoretically, Mojtaba Khamenei survived the leadership airstrike and is now the Iran’s new supreme leader. Maybe, but I wouldn’t put it past the people currently not running the country to announce him as leader even though he’s room temperature so they can continue to keep not running the country without U.S. and Israeli planes sending them to Allah.
“Third Iranian Shahid Soleimani-class Corvette Hit By America: At Bandar Abbas Port.”
The war between the U.S., Israel and Iran has entered a decisive phase that may determine the political future of the Middle East for decades to come.
President Trump declared that there will be no deal with the Iranian regime — nothing short of unconditional surrender. Tehran responded with predictable defiance, announcing that it would never surrender. Yet behind the regime’s rhetoric, reality appears very different.
Much of the leadership now reportedly communicates from undisclosed locations, hiding from sustained strikes while the propaganda machine attempts to project strength and resilience.
The scale of the military campaign has been extraordinary. In the first week alone, the U.S. reportedly struck approximately 3,000 Iranian targets across the country and the region. Israel has launched repeated waves of air strikes — more than twenty separate operations — systematically dismantling the regime’s military infrastructure. Missile launchers, air defense systems, command centers and naval facilities have been destroyed. Advanced weapons systems and new technologies, including next-generation laser defense platforms, are shaping the battlefield.
Israel has reportedly targeted and dismantled hardened command structures associated with the regime’s leadership, including the underground bunker networks linked to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Several key figures may have been killed in these operations, though the regime has yet to publicly acknowledge casualties buried under the rubble of destroyed facilities.
Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic’s military capacity has been devastated. What once appeared to be a formidable regional force increasingly looks like what many analysts suspected all along: a paper tiger built on intimidation, propaganda and bluff.
For decades, the regime invested enormous resources in projecting power across the Middle East, building proxy networks and threatening neighboring states. Now it faces an unprecedented strategic crisis. Today, it is focused primarily on surviving.
The central question confronting policymakers in Washington and Jerusalem is not whether the regime’s military capabilities can be degraded — that process is already underway — but whether the campaign will stop short of dismantling the Islamic Republic itself. Anything short of regime-change risks allowing the system to recover, reorganize and once again threaten regional stability.
The military balance of power favors the U.S. and Israel. Iran’s conventional warfighting capabilities have been severely degraded. Air superiority allows continued targeting of strategic assets, meaning the regime’s ability to project military power beyond its borders will keep declining as long as the campaign persists. In the short run, this places the regime in a defensive posture.
But the weakening of Iran’s military does not automatically translate to the collapse of the regime. The Islamic Republic has historically relied less on conventional military strength and more on asymmetric tools — intelligence networks, ideological mobilization, proxy militias and global terrorism. Even if its missile forces, navy and air defenses are heavily damaged, the regime’s internal security structures — the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the domestic Basij security force, intelligence services and propaganda apparatus — can still function. Note that these institutions exist primarily to protect the regime rather than to defend the country.
LUCAS drones (“even cheaper than the Shahed, around $15,000”).
Ship-based anti-drone lasers (cost per kill: 50¢).
Tomahawk
Precision Strike Missile
Evidently American forces have found a way to jam China’s BeiDou system, their version of GPS:
Also, BeiDou seems to include its own text message system, which comes with a lot of drawbacks in an active combat environment…
A document circulating lays out the possibility of a limited campaign for U.S. ground forces to taking over Bandar Abbas and surrounding areas.
It is important to note that the United States does not currently maintain the ground force numbers in the region required for a full-scale invasion of Iran, nor has it established the logistical infrastructure that such a campaign would demand. Furthermore, there is no visible mobilization that would indicate preparation for a large occupation force. However, the US does have a large number of forward-deployed naval assets, rapid deployment units available back home, and special operations forces that could deploy within 18 to 48 hours to conduct a limited landing designed to seize specific objectives only.
The current goal of the ongoing air campaign appears to be to undermine the Iranian military and political leadership, to ignite internal dissent and local opposition movements, and whereafter, support these through air support and supply drops. Nevertheless, if current aerial efforts fail to create such a scenario, the US may consider scaling up its efforts.
One viable strategy could entail securing a foothold inside Iran to host a provisional government and facilitate overland supply routes instead. The most likely target for such a landing is Bandar Abbas, Iran’s primary southern port and a central node in its oil export system. In addition to establishing a bridgehead, capturing the city would allow US forces to obtain Iran’s main naval base. The accompanying port infrastructure, including cargo terminals and former fleet facilities, could then be repurposed to rapidly unload supplies and serve as a staging ground to support friendly forces inland.
Most importantly, Bandars Abbass’ is strategically located on the Strait of Hormuz. Following the attack, Iran is attempting to blockade the Strait, causing disruptions that are already affecting global shipping lanes. Securing Bandar Abbas would give the US a position from which to guarantee maritime passage to the major oil flows and deny Iran the ability to leverage the strait as a pressure tool.
In preparation for a landing, the US would shift focus to an air campaign aimed at degrading Iranian coastal defenses, displacing Iranian army units from the shoreline, and disrupting their ability to maneuver along the main logistics corridors leading into Bandar Abbas. With defenses disrupted, a numerically smaller landing force could then move into secure administrative buildings, port facilities, and the surrounding districts, in order to secure a perimeter and consolidate control. Infiltration routes through the mountains would be used to send small special forces groups to link up with local resistance networks as well as provide supplies and weaponry overland. Any landing would also force Iranian army units hiding in the surrounding mountains into the open terrain, if they want to contest the US bridgehead. However, any attempt to mass forces for a real counterattack would expose them to US and Israeli airstrikes almost immediately; with over 150 US combat aircraft, several cruisers, and guided-missile destroyers, ready to provide fire support to any landing party.
The alternative for the Iranian army would be a shift toward a guerrilla‑style resistance inside the city and surrounding area. But the operational impact of such a campaign would remain limited if the United States avoids expanding the offensive inland, and positions itself as a supporting force for a new government, instead of an occupying one. High local pro‑Western sentiment, visible in the large protests in the cities and towns here earlier this year, could additionally constrain the Iranian army’s ability to operate covertly.
Highly speculative, but it does contain a certain logic. Plus, with physical control of the oil export terminal, the U.S. could start selling oil in exchange for direct payment, promising to turn over any proceeds after a non-Jihadist government takes power…
Add the Royal Jordanian Air Force to the list of countries flying defensive missions over the Persian Gulf, specifically protecting Bahrain and UAE.
Azerbaijan has reportedly reopened the border with Iran, but the source is TASS, so several grains of salt are probably in order.
Jordan Peterson and Douglas Murray talk about what a scumbag death cult Hamas is.
UAE is investing in Ukrainian MilTech companies and buying Flamingo missiles to counter Iran.
“The United Arab Emirates-based Edge Group is set to purchase a 30 percent ownership stake in Fire Point, Ukraine’s combat-proven missile and drone manufacturer. The proposed deal of around 760 million US dollars will raise the total valuation of the Ukrainian defense firm to roughly 2.5 billion US dollars. Fire Point, which produces the FP-1 and FP-2 unmanned aerial systems as well as the Flamingo cruise missile, has risen to become Ukraine’s leading defense technology manufacturer within just two years, with production of drones currently reaching 6,000 per month.”
“The most interesting product in Fire Point’s arsenal is the Flamingo cruise missile, of which the company produces 1 to 2 units per day. With 30% share in the company and certain agreements, the UAE can receive around 10 to 20 such missiles and 1800 drones per month, significantly enhancing its ability not only to protect itself against enemies like Iran, but to carry out preventive strikes. Combat-proven with an estimated range of 3,000 kilometers and already successfully used to target critical Russian infrastructure within the 2,000 kilometer range, the missile is capable of reaching and destroying any target across Iran. Air bases, command centers, and missile storage facilities can be targeted with ease by its 1,150 kilogram warhead, forcing the Iranian command to change planning due to another deadly threat in the region.”
And what’s happening in the “southern front” of the war? In Lebanon, Israel seems to settling Hezbollah’s hash in both Beirut…
…and southern Lebanon.
Today’s Habitual Linecrosser:
As usual, if you think I missed any significant stories on the war, feel free to share them in the comments below.
U.S. and Israeli are still hitting targets, and Iran is still retaliating by hitting every other country on the Persian Gulf. Here are some significant updates from the war in Iran:
The IDF targeted a building in which Tehran’s 88-member Assembly of Experts was meeting to choose Iran’s next supreme leader, Israeli sources told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.
Iranian news agencies reported that the building was “flattened” during the Israeli strikes.
No injuries or deaths resulting from the strike have been reported as of early Tuesday evening.
Earlier on Tuesday, Iran’s ISNA news agency cited a member of the Assembly of Experts as saying that choosing the successor to the previous supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, “won’t take long.”
So IDF wiped out not only the top guy and his successor, but also all the likely successors as well…
Suchomimus has damage assessment from coalition naval strikes:
Highlights:
IRINS Makran, a former tanker converted to a forward base ship and Iran’s largest naval vessel, is on fire.
A bunch of smaller ships at Bandar Abbas were also likely hit.
Several frigates likely sunk, and one possibly sunk for the third time.
Lots of stuff hit at Konark naval base in the southeast, both ships and base infrastructure, including a floating dock. IRINS Jamaran is no longer on fire, but is partially underwater.
Multiple targets hit at the Iranian naval base at Bandar-e-Jask.
The Qataris are already joining in the strikes against Iran, and the Saudis might follow suit. “These two countries have the largest and most capable air forces in the Gulf. Qatar can field 22 Eurofighter Typhoon, 40 F-15QA, and 36 Rafale aircraft. Saudi Arabia operates 68 F-15C/D, 149 F-15S/SR/SA, 71 Eurofighter Typhoon, and 77 Tornado aircraft.”
Did Iran hit UAE THAAD missile defense radar sites?
It looks like the IRGC did not lie and indeed destroyed the AN/TPY-2 radar of the THAAD Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) System at Al-Ruwais, UAE.
On Sunday, mobs of young practitioners of the Religion of Peace™ stormed the U.S. consulate in Karachi (Pakistan) and the U.S. embassy in Baghdad (Iraq).
Iraqi police managed to put down their riot before things got too spicy, but in Pakistan, the Marines got a chance to put their training into action, killing 10 and wounding dozens more as rioters pried open the consulate’s gate (local security forces were also on-site, including the Pakistan Rangers).
Another 12 people were killed by local police in the north of the country as a mob stormed U.N. offices.
Seeing lots of reports that the CIA is arming the Kurds to help overthrow the regime, but the source seems to be CNN, so naturally I’m treating that with several grains of salt.
That’s my quick impression of the news out of theater. If you think Imissed something significant, feel free to share it in the comments below.
If it wasn’t clear from yesterday’s roundup, it appears that a whole lot of Islamic Republic of Iran leaders were physically meeting at Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s bunker in Tehran when the successful decapitation strike was carried out as part of Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion. The operations are still ongoing, and here are some news updates.
“‘All’ of [Ali Khamenei’s] likely successors are ‘probably dead’ following US-Israeli strikes.”
Mick Mulvaney, former Trump OMB head and Chief of Staff: “A high risk, high reward type of operation.”
A “once in a lifetime opportunity” to both end the nuclear program and effect regime change. “All the [Iranian] senior leadership gathered together at one place at one time.”
The daylight attack must have meant we had really solid intel on the regime meeting. Most of our Middle East strikes happen at night during a new moon. “An opportunity they simply couldn’t pass up.”
“All of [Ali Khamenei’s] likely successors are probably dead as well.”
“The chances of getting a pro-Western, pro-American regime in Iran were as high as it ever was going to be.”
John Bolton was lamenting that these actions weren’t taken six or seven years ago, but the situation on the ground now is very different. “Everything has to come together at the same time for this to work.”
“This can’t be a forever war.”
Taking out the mullahs is “a step toward peace.”
New Guy steps into the leadership crosshairs. “Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref informed officials of plans to have him take charge of the nation during wartime, according to a report from the Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA) published on social media late Saturday night. There was no explicit note of President Masoud Pezeshkian’s ability to carry out presidential duties.”
Simon Whistler covers the strikes:
Much of this covers information included here yesterday, but here are a few new tidbits.
Whistler states Iran is claiming they hit Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. LiveUAMap shows a strike against Prince Sultan Air Base, which is over a 100 miles from Riyadh. I mean, they’re both in central Saudi Arabia, but, eh.
In Yemen, Houthis threaten retaliation. Nothing yet.
The gulf states are plenty pissed at Iran tossing drones and missiles at them.
Russia issued a single proforma condemnation of U.S. attacks. China, on the other hand, hasn’t even done that.
A lot of Chinese MilTech deals were supposedly in the works when things kicked off, but it looks like very little (if any) actually made it to Iran.
Suchomimus video the first:
“It is quite telling that [Khamenei]’s death is being celebrated on the streets.”
Khamenei was likely killed in the opening strike. “A few sources are now saying it was Israel that hit this.”
“Iran isn’t showing any signs of giving up. Well, these could just be the last temper tantrum of the finished regime. The generals and remaining politicians lashing out knowing their time is over and that a surrender is inevitable and just trying to inflict damage.”
Suchomimus sees regime change as unlikely without “boots on the ground.”
Suchomimus video the second, which is all damage assessment:
One Iranian frigate hit, but two more showing no signs of damage.
Bandar Abbas radar site hit. Bandar Abbas is the port city directly north of the Strait of Hormuz.
Four MiG-29 fighters destroyed out of 30 in service.
Israel took out a Basij installation in northern Tehran, they being the hated Iranian religious police. The video shows four large buildings all exploding in a matter of seconds. “Iran’s air defense is completely ineffective here.”
Iran’s counterstrikes have had some limited success. In Kuwait “Ali al-Salim air base was hit.” The image shows smoke rising up from three different points, one evidently from a fuel storage strike. “One of Iran’s most successful strikes to date.” Plus a car park and a support facility.
Iran also hit Erbil air base in Iraq, where a large fire was seen burning. No information yet on what was hit.
Iran also hit Al-Udeid air base in Qatar. “This is the largest American base in the Middle East.” Videos show Patriot intercepting Iranian vehicles, but also one miss and one Patriot interceptor wandering off course and hitting the ground.
I see Tomahawks, F-18s and F-35s, and a lot of Iranian targets going boom. And other American assets are poised to join the action:
B-2s will likely show up tonight, making direct attacks on key targets in a way no other platform can. Yes this could include MOPs, but also lots of JDAMs against less fortified targets. They can achieve massive effects in a single sortie. One B-2 can carry 80 500lb JDAMs. Entire… pic.twitter.com/d0ztfmHYVN
TAMPA, Fla. – As of 9:30 am ET, March 1, three U.S. service members have been killed in action and five are seriously wounded as part of Operation Epic Fury.
Several others sustained minor shrapnel injuries and concussions — and are in the process of being…
🚫Iran’s IRGC claims to have struck USS Abraham Lincoln with ballistic missiles. LIE. ✅The Lincoln was not hit. The missiles launched didn’t even come close. The Lincoln continues to launch aircraft in support of CENTCOM’s relentless campaign to defend the American people by… pic.twitter.com/AjaeHMemtA
Plus President Trump was stating that Iranian retaliation was less than expected.
Also this: “Imagery circulating points to Iranian attacks in the vicinity of France’s naval base in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates.” In other news, there’s a French naval base in Abu Dhabi…
Beware of Astroturf protesters. “CCP-Linked NGO Network Prepares “Emergency Protests” In US After Trump’s Iran Strikes Jeopardize Oil Flows To China.”
Planned demonstrations branded “Hands Off Iran” or “Stop The War On Iran” are scheduled to take place this afternoon in major cities across the U.S. From New York to Los Angeles, left-wing organizers have circulated digital flyers, coordinated social media blasts, and activated email lists urging supporters to mobilize within hours of the announcement. This activation alert for the protest-industrial complex occurred shortly after the Department of War’s “Operation Epic Furry” began in Iran.
To the average person, this afternoon’s protests may look like a groundswell of outrage over the U.S. strikes on Iran, especially given that the Trump administration campaigned on no new foreign wars. But the speed, uniform messaging, and coordinated national footprint suggest something highly more organized – and familiar for readers, as we’ve diligently followed the activities of the protest-industrial complex.
This is the same mobilization network that has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to move tens of thousands of social justice warriors into the streets in under 12 hours.
Earlier this year, that same protest infrastructure powered nationwide pro-Maduro demonstrations almost immediately after developments in Venezuela made national headlines. In the months prior, overlapping coalitions were instrumental in organizing the anti-Israel encampments at Columbia University and other campuses, as well as anti-ICE demonstrations in Los Angeles and other sanctuary cities. The causes shift. The slogans change. The logistical infrastructure – or the machine that makes this spark – remains the same.
What we are witnessing is not a loose collection of anti-war activists or 1970s-style hippies responding independently to global events. It is a coordinated ecosystem of dark-money funded nonprofits, advocacy groups, campus organizations, and ideological networks that can rapidly repurpose whatever geopolitical flashpoint dominates the news cycle. From the George Floyd riots to pro-Palestine protests to anti-Tesla protests to anti-Trump protests and anti-Elon Musk protests to anti-DOGE protests to anti-ICE protests/riots, these movements are not dedicated to a single issue. They are part of omni-cause mobilizers, sowing chaos deep within the nation’s core.
Whether the banner reads “Free Palestine,” “Hands Off Venezuela,” “Abolish ICE,” or now “Hands Off Iran,” the same names frequently appear on sponsorship lists. The same fiscal sponsors provide infrastructure. The same activist pipelines appear.
This brings us to far-left billionaire Neville Roy Singham, whom The New York Times recently described as “known as a socialist benefactor of far-left causes” and as someone who “works closely with the Chinese government media machine and is financing its propaganda worldwide.”
Singham’s network, shortly after Operation Epic Furry began, announced on X “New York City Emergency Protest” to “Stop The war On Iran.”
“The U.S. and Israel are carrying out an unprovoked, illegal bombing campaign on Iran. This war serves no one but a tiny elite and oil executives and is a continuation of more than two years of genocide in Palestine and US-Israeli aggressions throught the region,” the People’s Forum, a Manhattan far-left non-profit also linked to Singham, wrote on X.
Other left-wing groups on the flyer tied to Singham’s network include the ANSWER Coalition and CODEPINK. Also on the list are the Democratic Socialists of America, American Muslims for Palestine, the National Iranian American Council, the Palestinian Youth Movement, Black Alliance for Peace, and 50501.
November 4, 1979 — almost 47 years ago — Iran seized the American embassy in Tehran and held its staff hostage. Ever since then, American presidents have struggled with what to do.
Jimmy Carter temporized for many months, even as ABC’s newly created Nightline — a nighttime news show created specially to cover the hostage crisis — opened every night with “America held hostage, day XXX.” His wife, First Lady Rosalynn Carter, finally prodded him to do something. The “something” turned out to be a shambolic rescue mission that ended in disaster.
President Reagan intimidated the mullahs a bit, but never seriously retaliated for the Beirut barracks bombing that killed over 200 Marines along with over a score of other service personnel. George H.W. Bush invaded Iraq but left the mullahs largely alone. Bill Clinton did nothing of substance. George W. Bush had a chance to bring the Iranians to heel after the conquest of Iraq, but inexplicably failed to press his advantage. Barack Obama was, basically, complicit in their nuclear program, to the point of famously sending them pallets of cash totaling over a billion dollars.
President Trump, on the other hand, killed General Soleimani and told other Iranian leaders that they could be next. And now they are next.
So what have we learned, and what’s likely to happen in the future?
Well, first, with the capture of Maduro and now this, we’ve learned that our military can do things no one else can. We seized a leader of a hostile nation from his largest military base and brought him to custody without losing a single American life. Now we’ve killed the single biggest threat to American interests in the Mideast, along with much of his senior leadership, again without losing a single American life.
Why didn’t we do this before? And why could we do it now? The reason we can do it now is mostly leadership. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth quickly prioritized precision and lethality in the military; President Trump was willing to use the military in ways prior presidents were not.
Why didn’t we do this before? Part of that is because the foreign policy establishment, like the domestic policy establishment, doesn’t exist to solve problems. It exists to manage those problems in ways that keep its members cushily employed. To, in Myres McDougal’s words, “maintain tensions at a level short of unacceptable violence.”
Trump, on the other hand, wants to solve things, even if it involves inflicting unacceptable violence on the enemy. Also, he regards our enemies as actual enemies, not as “foreign colleagues” or “partners in peace.” To quote author Keith Laumer, “there’s nothing as peaceful as a dead troublemaker.” Khamenei is now peaceful.
In fact, Trump’s approach across the board, which has brought him success after success in his first 13 months back in office, is to solve problems the way the guys in the bar say they would do it. Too much illegal immigration? Close the border and deport the illegals. Problems with Iran? Kill their leaders and encourage a revolution. Venezuela shipping drugs and gangs to the U.S.? Capture their leader and encourage his successor to cooperate or share his fate. You can just do things.
The thing is, though, that there’s a subtlety in this approach. Just doing things turns out to work. But if you take a step back from these actions of Trump’s, the big picture shows a pretty coherent strategy. Trump wants to weaken China without going to war with China. He has now cut off two major suppliers of oil to the PRC, which produces hardly any oil of its own. (It’s worse than that, because China wasn’t paying for that oil with dollars, and now it will need dollars to buy oil elsewhere.) That applies a squeeze to an already squeezed CCP, and will make Xi’s position, domestically and internationally, weaker. Also the military excellence recently displayed has to inspire second, third, and fourth thoughts about invading Taiwan.
Trump’s tactics typically have two characteristics: He goes after his opponents’ source of sustenance (usually that means money, but not always) and he accomplishes more than one thing at a time. In neutralizing Iran, Trump accomplishes a lot of things. First, of course, he neutralizes a major hostile regional threat.
But second, he cuts the ground out from under what’s left of Hamas and Hezbollah. He also shuts off the pipeline of cash that was being used to bribe politicians and journalists in Europe (the Iranians have basically admitted that they do that) and support various NGOs and the like that serve anti-American and anti-Israeli ends. Iran has been a major sponsor of terrorism around the world; that will end.
With Iran gone (and India, thanks to tariffs, eager to be on our team) the threat of the BRICS has been sharply reduced. Brazil under Lula isn’t friendly, but isn’t a power house. Russia and China don’t like us but China needs oil and Russia is broke and mired in an endless and ruinous war of its own devising.
With Iranians free to say what they think of the mullahs’ regime, he also delegitimizes the left’s narrative that fundamentalist Islam somehow has some sort of anti-colonial virtue. In fact, the mullahs ran Iran as a Persian colony of an Arab ideology. The Iranian public is well aware of this, and will be saying that a lot.
And if he’s able to see a new pro-American government in Iran (distinctly likely) we’ll have a regional ally that will encourage the Arab states, currently friendly to us and Israel out of fear of Iran, to remain friendly to us and Israel out of a different sort of fear of Iran.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian claims he’s alive and in charge:
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is alive, stating this morning on state-run television that the Interim Leadership Council is now operational and has assumed constitutional control of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Pezeshkian adds that, “We will continue the path of the Leader… pic.twitter.com/QIhDTeRxub
Power struggle between him and Mohammad Reza Aref, or just confusion?
Iranian foreign minister is suggesting that no one is actually in charge, that the chain of command has broken down and the military is just sort of acting on general vibes:
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi:
What happened in Oman was not our choice.
We have already told our Armed Forces to be careful about the targets they choose.
Our military units are now, in fact, independent and somewhat isolated, and they are acting based on general… pic.twitter.com/g0l9Te2HNa
Which is not what you want to hear less than 48 hours into a shooting war…
Mojtaba Khamenei, Ayatollah heir apparent, is apparently dead as well.
Iranian media: Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has long been discussed as one of the potential successors, has been eliminated. pic.twitter.com/6Fy8mkHe47
That four building complex previously described as Basij headquarters is here described as “Sarallah Headquarters” or “security crisis management command center of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Tehran”:
Israeli Air Force strikes that hit Tehran this morning targeted a complex the IDF described as the “headquarters of the terror regime.”
Now technically, the Basij is a subset of the IRGC, so that may be where the confusion comes in. Or the complex could be both. Google Maps isn’t helping me out here…
More of Iran’s classic aircraft destroyed:
Video published this morning by the Israeli Air Force showing the targeting and destruction of a two awaiting to takeoff F-4 Phantom IIs and an F-5 Tiger II with the Iranian Air Force, during strikes on Tabriz Air Base in the East Azerbaijan Province on Northwestern Iran. pic.twitter.com/n8NkNhGjle
Despite claims of not being involved, UK fighters are reportedly flying CAP over the Persian Gulf:
British Royal Air Force Typhoons officially started flying combat air patrols over the Persian Gulf today, have already shot down multiple Iranian drones headed towards Qatar. pic.twitter.com/hQ7WOiZYjr
"Iran’s chief of army staff and defense minister were killed in an airstrike targeting a meeting of the country’s defense council, Iranian state television reported Sunday.
Gen. Abdol Rahim Mousavi and Defense Minister Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh were…
“Gen. Abdol Rahim Mousavi and Defense Minister Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh were killed at the meeting alongside the head of Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard and security adviser Ali Shamkhani.”
❗️Iranian state media confirmed the killing of seven senior Armed Forces commanders in the US-Israeli strikes. Those killed include Supreme Leader's office chief Mohammad Shirazi, his deputy Akbar Ebrahimzadeh, Armed Forces intelligence deputy Saleh Asadi, logistics deputy Mohsen… pic.twitter.com/6ptzq6r06Q
“Iranian state media confirmed the killing of seven senior Armed Forces commanders in the US-Israeli strikes. Those killed include Supreme Leader’s office chief Mohammad Shirazi, his deputy Akbar Ebrahimzadeh, Armed Forces intelligence deputy Saleh Asadi, logistics deputy Mohsen Darreh Baghi, police intelligence chief Gholamreza Rezaeian, Armed Forces operations planning chief Bahram Hosseini Motlaq, and Armed Forces logistics chief Hasanali Tajik.”
More regime buildings go boom:
Iran's Ministry of Intelligence (VAJA/Vezarat-e Ettela'at Jomhuri-ye Eslami-ye Iran) has been struck in central Tehran. #Iranpic.twitter.com/aQjeTwoed4
U.S. President Donald Trump announced Sunday that nine Iranian naval ships have been sunk as part of combat operations against Iran.
“I have just been informed that we have destroyed and sunk 9 Iranian Naval Ships, some of them relatively large and important,” Trump wrote in a post on X, adding that Iran’s naval headquarters has been “largely destroyed” in a different attack.
“We are going after the rest — They will soon be floating at the bottom of the sea, also!” Trump wrote.
U.S. Central Command officials said earlier Sunday that an Iranian Jamaran-class corvette was struck by U.S. forces at the beginning of Operation Epic Fury.
“The ship is currently sinking to the bottom of the Gulf of Oman at a Chah Bahar pier,” the statement reads. “As the president said, members of Iran’s armed forces, IRGC and police ‘must lay down your weapons.’ Abandon ship.”
❗️A suspected strike has hit the British RAF Akrotiri base in Limassol, Cyprus, with a loud explosion heard in the area, alarms sounding at the base, and aircraft scrambled, Israeli Channel 14 journalist Hallel Bitton Rosen reported. #Iranpic.twitter.com/xB6mvhrbFt
Result: Craven jihad apologist Keir Starmer grows something vaguely resembling a spine and gives the U.S. permission to use Cyprus base for “defensive purposes.” With so many Middle East bases to chose from, I’m not sure the US actually has any assets they can usefully deploy there, but still.
Clarification: Here Starmer makes clear that “defensive purposes” includes letting American assets use British bases, including those in the Persian Gulf, to hunt Iranian missile launch sites and storage facilities:
A massive explosion at Iran’s largest commercial port killed several people and destroyed shiploads of ballistic missile fuel from China, news reports suggest. “A huge blast probably caused by the explosion of chemical materials killed at least 18 people and injured more than 700 on Saturday at Iran’s biggest port, Bandar Abbas,” Reuters reported, citing Iranian regime-run media.
The exploding rocket fuel sent out a huge plume, unleashing a shock wave spanning several miles. “Iran’s official news channels aired footage of a vast black and orange cloud of smoke billowing up above the port in the aftermath of the blast,” the news agency added. “The blast shattered windows within a radius of several kilometres and was heard in Qeshm, an island 26 kilometres (16 miles) south of the port, Iranian media said.”
The shipment was reportedly carrying sodium perchlorate, which is indeed pretty spicy stuff if handled improperly.
Now we have footage of the blast and, holy crap, was it massive and devastating:
At 36 seconds in, you get footage of the start of the fire. It doesn’t look like an explosive or a drone strike, just a fire that got out of control, so I doubt the U.S. or Israel was behind this one. Neither China nor Iran is known for their painstaking attention to detail.
On top of the rogering Iran’s missile program has already received from Israel, the explosion will make it that much more difficult for Iran to reconstitute their missile program anytime soon.
Wikipedia, the source of all vaguely accurate knowledge, tells us “Shahid Rajaee Port is responsible for 85% of the total loading and unloading carried out at the Iranian ports. By 2011, Shahid Rajaee port ranked 44th among the 3500 major ports of the world.” With Iran’s inflation rate already creeping toward 40%, damage to their main container port is going to weaken their economy further, giving President Trump additional leverage in talks over their nuclear program.
