Iranian ships reportedly laying mines go boom, as does another suspected Iranian nuclear site, Iran hits Jordan and Iraq, the Israelis dirtnap more Basij, VDH weighs in, the Saudis are buying Ukrainian MilTech, and a quick guide to drones.
Another day, another 429 error. This one cleared up while I was out riding my bicycle (which broke).
US forces obliterated several Iranian navy vessels — including 16 minelayers — near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday as President Trump warned the Islamic Republic against planting explosives along the critical global trade route.
The strikes came amid reports that Iran had already begun laying mines along the vital shipping lane — which carries about 20% of the world’s oil supply — despite Trump’s demands that it remain open and unaffected as tensions with the US and Israel escalate.
Trump himself doesn’t sound sure mines were actually laid: “If Iran has put any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY!”
Among the three cargo vessels that were hit in the strait was a Thai-flagged vessel, which was 11 nautical miles north of Oman. A fire broke out on board and the Royal Thai Navy said the 23 crew members were rescued.
Iran has claimed responsibility, saying the ship’s crew ignored warnings.
The second vessel was a Japanese-flagged container ship that was struck 25 nautical miles off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, sustaining minor damage.
A third cargo vessel was hit about 50 nautical miles north-west of Dubai, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).
Also: “32 countries voted unanimously to the release of 400 million barrels of oil due to the “unprecedented” situation, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced.” Including the U.S. (See below.)
Iran also threatened $200 a barrel oil, which will make them super popular with any country that isn’t Russia.
The Israel Defense Forces on Tuesday declared it had dismantled most key assets of Iran’s internal security forces in Ilam province, a western region that became a flashpoint during the anti-regime protests that swept the Islamic Republic earlier this year.
Security forces and members of the Basij—the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ volunteer militia—”carried out many terror attacks and brutally repressed internal protests during demonstrations that took place across Iran in the December–January period,” the IDF stated.
Since the start of “Operation Roaring Lion” on Feb. 28, Israeli Air Force jets struck the local headquarters of Tehran’s internal security forces, including barracks of a special forces unit; an office of the regime’s Intelligence Ministry; an IRGC command center responsible for battalions that suppress protests; and several Basij and IRGC infrastructures used to reinforce the regime’s control, it said.
The IDF noted that the damage to repression and control mechanisms in the Ilam province, which borders Iraq and has a significant Kurdish population, was just “one example of many” of its recent operations.
The security forces “form part of the Iranian regime’s security apparatus and have for years been responsible for executing terror activities,” said the army, noting that they also lead Tehran’s main “repression efforts against internal protests, particularly in recent periods, using severe violence, mass arrests, and force against civilian demonstrators.”
Until last year, for some 46 years, Iran enjoyed a North Korea-like reputation in the heart of the Middle East: always unpredictable, reckless, dangerous, inevitably to be nuclear, self-destructive, and nihilistic.
All that said, was it really ever all that formidable?
The mullahs came into power after the removal of the Shah and, subsequently, the interim secular socialists. They did so by taking American hostages, murdering opponents, executing former supporters, and transforming the most secular and modern of the Middle East Muslim nations into the most medieval that routinely hung homosexuals, adulterers, and almost anyone who questioned the authority of the ayatollahs. In other words, these were gruesome people, but they didn’t necessarily have a competent military.
The theocracy’s only constant with the prior monarchical Iran was that it inherited near limitless oil and natural gas reserves, sophisticated arms, and the Shah’s modernized cities. It controlled the key strategic chokepoint at the Strait of Hormuz and enjoyed a geostrategically critical location between Asia and the Middle East. It fueled Iran’s historical chauvinism and pique that the millennia-long historical preeminence of Middle Eastern Persia was not fully appreciated by its Arab neighbors. So there were lots of natural advantages—and all for the most part squandered.
Under the camouflage of Shiite puritanism and otherworldliness, the ayatollahs proved even more corrupt (and far more incompetent) than the Shah’s entourage. They fought a destructive eight-year war with Saddam Hussein’s overrated Iraqi dictatorship and showed they were mostly just as militarily incompetent.
Over decades, they killed and wounded thousands of Americans by bombing U.S. embassies, barracks, and bases in the Middle East—without directly confronting the American military. For years, they sent lethal shaped charge IEDs to the Shiite insurgents to slaughter and maim thousands of Americans in Iraq and to the Taliban to do the same in Afghanistan.
At the first sign of popular protests, the regime never hesitated to gun down thousands of unarmed protesters. And, of course, they were abject hypocrites—hating the West, damning the Great Satan—and sending their pampered children to universities in America. The apparat proved quite earthly in its desire for money, estates, foreign travel, and the good life.
Their general strategies were never hard to follow.
One, the theocrats’ prior familiarity with Americans under the Shah and in exile in Europe bred an irrational fixation with and hatred of the West in general that made them useful proxies for the grand designs of communist and then later oligarchic Russia, and later ascendant communist China.
Iranian realpolitik alliances with secular communists were based on the quid pro quo of granting Russia and China access to the Gulf, selling oil to China, and buying arms from both.
Two, they were endlessly chagrined that the Persian Shiites had been overshadowed by more populous Sunni Arab neighbors that supposedly lacked their own historical sophistication and more legitimate claims of embodying and speaking for global Islam.
So they would correct that historical travesty by doing their best to mobilize their clients and proxies to bully, isolate, and weaken Arab autocracies, especially those that are pro-Western.
Three, their planned eventual destruction of Israel would ensure that theocratic and Shiite Iran regained its lost prestige and honor by finally accomplishing what the Sunni world had failed to do. By arming murderous clients in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, the West Bank, and Yemen, they fashioned a global network of death that compromised European foreign policy toward the Middle East and terrified Western leaders and many of their Arab neighbors.
Fourth and finally, they sought to diminish the role of the United States in the Muslim world, drive it from the Middle East, and wage a virtual 47-year opportunistic war against American citizens and soldiers, with help from their terrorist surrogates.
Iran’s zenith in power and prestige came during Obama’s presidency (2009–17), and the so-called “Iran Deal” that they believed would guarantee them eventual nuclear power status.
But far more importantly, their massive acquisitions of air, land, and sea weapons and the empowering of terrorists, coupled with their passive-aggressive claims to victimhood, both scared and enticed President Obama into dropping sanctions. Soon, he was apologizing for supposed past sins and nocturnally sending them millions of dollars in Danegeld.
But worse by far, Obama thought he had squared the circle of neutralizing the supposed Middle Eastern Iranian juggernaut by envisioning it as an empathetic victim—and eventual friend if not ally.
Iran was to be rebooted as the Persian and Shiite righteously aggrieved underdog—bullied unfairly by Western imperialists and their surrogate corrupt Arab petro-kingdom clients for its asceticism and courage in fighting the West since its own birth in 1979.
Obama would remedy this “injustice” by bolstering Iran as a counterweight to not just the Sunni Arab world but to Israel itself. The reset would include an American détente with the murderous pro-Iranian Assad regime in Syria, the supposedly benign neglect of Hezbollah’s takeover of Lebanon, and the championing of the “Palestinians,” which de facto had insidiously become indistinct from Hamas terrorists.
Such creative tension between the Iranian Shiite crescent and a diminished Arab world would be adjudicated from time to time by Obama himself, whose America would go from oppressor to ally of the oppressed.
Snip.
In sum, no one apparently realized—with the exception of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu—that beneath its rough, ugly shell, theocratic Iran was rotten and decayed inside. Its corruption and the hatred of its own people ensured that even its huge revenues and sophisticated Chinese and Russian weapons could never translate into a modern, lethal military.
And in summer 2025, the Israelis and Americans first proved that Iran was indeed hollow.
Read the whole thing.
Saudi Arabia is preparing a “major deal” to purchase Ukrainian weapons, according to the Kyiv Independent
One source in the Ukrainian defense industry told the publication that Riyadh and Kyiv are negotiating a separate “huge agreement” for weapons supply, which could be… pic.twitter.com/LxmoipkZOt
— Cloooud |🇺🇦 (@GloOouD) March 10, 2026
Again, if I’ve missed anything notable in the conflict, feel free to note it in the comments below.
Tags: Basij, China, Donald Trump, drones, Foreign Policy, International Energy Agency (IEA), Iran, Iranian navy, Iraq, Israel, Jihad, Jordan, Military, Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, naval mines, Navy, nuclear weapons, Obama Scandals, oil industry, Saudi Arabia, Shiites, Strait of Hormuz, strategic oil reserve, Taleghan 2, Victor Davis Hanson, video
Sean Hannity aired his interview with Steve Witkoff today. The United States Special Envoy to the Middle East stated that the Iranian negotiators told the American team just before Epic Fury began that they possessed 460 kg of 60% enriched uranium, which had survived Midnight Hammer.
460 kg of 60% enriched uranium would produce 306 kg of 90% enriched (weapons grade) uranium after a week or so of centrifuging. Another week and the hexafluoride would be reduced to metal. 306 kg of 90% enriched uranium would be sufficient to produce 12 “Little Boy” scale bombs, each with 15 Kt yields, assuming a reasonable pit design. We know the Iranians developed several reasonably good pit designs at Parchin circa 2005.
Another 429 Code Error just after midnight. You’re popular even with the insomniacs.
:“32 countries voted unanimously to the release of 400 million barrels of oil due to the ‘unprecedented’ situation, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced, Including the U.S.”
The prediction by Comrade Cartridge that fuel prices would escalate precipitously is now called into question.
“The prediction by Comrade Cartridge that fuel prices would escalate precipitously is now called into question.”
400 million barrels is less than 4 days’ consumption by the world. It will take weeks to lift that oil out of reservoirs and get it to market. SPR releases are propaganda for gullible fools like you, nothing more.
The Russians sold out their March oil book in two days at $ 76+ per barrel. Even so, WTI is up 4.05% this morning at $ 91.30 per barrel. Murban crude, used as a market price for Asian deliveries from the Gulf, is up 18.93% at $ 119.80 per barrel this morning.
The European LNG price, represented by the Dutch TTF Natural Gas (TFAc1) contract has resumed its ascent. It is now € 51.35 per MW and climbing steadily.
“Since the start of ‘Operation Roaring Lion’ on Feb. 28, Israeli Air Force jets struck the local headquarters of Tehran’s internal security forces, including barracks of a special forces unit; an office of the regime’s Intelligence Ministry; an IRGC command center responsible for battalions that suppress protests; and several Basij and IRGC infrastructures used to reinforce the regime’s control, it said.”
Morale is to.mass as 2 is to 1–Napoleon Bonaparte
The essential thing in war is to concentrate on breaking the enemy”s morale. Having fewer forces than the USA, Israel has centered its efforts on disrupting the IRGC’s command and control nexus. If successful, the end result will be an atomized resistance, localized pockets that can readily be defeated in detail.
The USA effort concentrates on breaking the IRGC’s toys. The Israelis are focused on winning the war so that the USA can dictate the peace to a disarmed and demoralized enemy.
Those of us not interested in RT propaganda and not dependent on Putin, Henry Hub is still below $3.5, about half what it was in the winter months.
“Those of us not interested in RT propaganda and not dependent on Putin, Henry Hub is still below $3.5, about half what it was in the winter months.”
Only because U.S. LNG shipping capacity is fully booked. Nothing more can be sent to Europe.
Your beloved Ukrainian Nazis attacked the Turk Stream Russkaya pumping station overnight. They appear determined to add Erdoğan to their ever growing EU enemies list. Should add to Europe’s natural gas distress. The Dutch TTF Natural Gas (TFAc1) contract is holding its € 51 handle today.
Thanks for another article.
We sank the Iranian navy? We might as well sink the Hungarian or Swiss navies for all the good that it will do. Naval drones can be transported by donkey cart and launched from any ol’ beach. Only boots on the ground can prevent that. And, as the complete lack of contingency planning for this operation makes painfully clear, we’re not ready for that.
Barring some miracle, we’ve suffered a strategic defeat. It’s best to cut our losses and seriously prepare for Round Two. Truly, a huge, beautiful, golden victory (the greatest in human history).
“Those of us not interested in RT propaganda and not dependent on Putin, Henry Hub is still below $3.5, about half what it was in the winter months.”
You seem enthralled by RT when you should focus on OilPrice.com. Tsvetana Paraskova (a Bulgarian, not a Russian. I can read your mind!) just posted an article:
‘U.S. Natural Gas Prices Stay Calm Despite Global LNG Crisis’
By Tsvetana Paraskova – Mar 12, 2026
The money shot:
“The U.S. cannot significantly increase LNG exports in the short term, meaning the supply gap left by Qatar is unlikely to be filled quickly, keeping global gas markets tight.”
Now, a graduate education for you:
The overwhelming majority of America’s oil and gas comes from fracking (75%+). Fracking most wells produces both natural gas and tight oil simultaneously, in varying ratios.
America has surplus oil export capacity and we are surging oil production to meet world demand using that capacity. LNG export capacity is far less than the surplus natural gas (surplus to domestic consumption) produced as a byproduct of the intensive production of oil for export.
Hence the low domestic natural gas prices. Surplus natural gas is trapped in the American market.
“SPR releases are propaganda for gullible fools like you, nothing more.”
You *did* notice that fuel prices are falling, though. Didn’t you?
“Only boots on the ground can prevent that.”
Nope. Ukraine provides us evidence that FPV drones can do 90% of the infantry ‘s “find them, fix them, fight them, finish them” brief.
“Barring some miracle, we’ve suffered a strategic defeat. It’s best to cut our losses”
We? You have a mouse in your pocket, Iranian stooge?
“You *did* notice that fuel prices are falling, though. Didn’t you?”
No, because this did not happen. AAA national average gasoline and diesel pump prices have increased every day since Epic Fury began. Even Sunday and Monday, when WTI relaxed. European prices are within a hair’s breadth of all time highs, where the pumps have not run dry.
I traversed the Peoples’ Republic of Michigan twice yesterday. Diesel prices were $ 4.839 in the morning and $ 5.149 in the evening. Think the AAA diesel price report tomorrow will be exciting.
“Nope. Ukraine provides us evidence that FPV drones can do 90% of the infantry ‘s “find them, fix them, fight them, finish them” brief.”
Don’t bet on this. Every drone requires rare earths and the U.S. military stockpile is now measured in months, not years. Bear in mind, the Ukrainians are making 9,000 drones a day, each containing a pound or more of rare earths. This is consuming what little supply our military-industrial complex can wheedle out of the Chinese.
Steve
Per USGS (not RT), US produced 51,000 TONS of Rare Earth Ore in 2025 and another 8,900 TONS of Rare Earth Compounds. But hey,
“Bear in mind, the Ukrainians are making 9,000 drones a day, each containing a pound or more of rare earths.”
LOL
US reserves of REO is 1.9 million tons, not including recent finds in Wyoming which would double that number. There is a lot more in Alaska being blocked by Democrats.
“Bear in mind, the Ukrainians are making 9,000 drones a day…”
Which will find ready buyers in The Middle East, to include the Israelis.
“US reserves of REO is 1.9 million tons, not including recent finds in Wyoming which would double that number. There is a lot more in Alaska being blocked by Democrats.”
The important light rare earths – lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, samarium, europium – are abundant in Mountain Pass ore, but difficult to separate from one another. No separation operation exists in America at this time.
The important heavy rare earth elements – gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, lutetium – are indeed rare. Not found in Mountain Pass ore and are also only separated in China.
All Mountain Pass ore goes to China for separation. The Aclara Resources heavy rare earth separation plant may start limited production in Louisiana during 2027. More likely 2028. It uses technology which has been trialled, but not proven in production. Two previous separation plants based on new technologies failed over the last 10 years. Aclara’s ore will be imported from Brazil, a country run by a BRIC socialist who stole his election and is not well disposed towards the U.S.
Dysprosium is the most critical rare earth and the one China is using to throttle our military production. It is the absolutely essential addition to rare earth magnet alloys to assure their performance above 100 °C. This is almost all the military applications, with the possible exception of FPV drones flown in cold weather.