Posts Tagged ‘Bushehr’

Iran Strikes: Day 25

Tuesday, March 24th, 2026

The Iran war continues, with attacks on energy grids and refineries across the Persian Gulf, (maybe) another bunker buster strike, serious regime confusion, countries reporting impending shortages, and part of the 82nd Airborne moving into the theater.

  • ZeroHedge has piece up that starts with a nice state-of-play summary.
    • WSJ, Fox reporting 3,000 elite Army [82nd] Airborne soldiers to be ordered to Middle East. Axios says US awaits Iran response to proposed Thursday peace talks.
    • Backchannel diplomacy vs skepticism: Abbas Araghchi reportedly signaled openness to negotiations with the US via envoy Steve Witkoff, but Israel has appeared cool on deal prospects or offramp.
    • Heavy exchange of fire and testing red lines: Iran continues missile and drone waves targeting Israel and US bases, amid reports of overnight airstrikes on military and gas infrastructure near Isfahan.
    • Iran reshuffles its security leadership, appointing Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr: he’s a former IRGC commander and replaces the assassinated Ali Larijani.
    • Iran halts natural gas exports to Turkey: follows last week’s Israeli strike on the massive South Pars gas field; QatarEnergy declares force majeure on some LNG contracts due war.
  • “The Israeli Air Force recently struck an Iranian nuclear research and development site in Tehran, the military announces. According to the Israeli army, the “strategic” site at the Malek Ashtar University was used by Iran’s military industries to develop components for nuclear weapons. Malek Ashtar University, subordinate to Iran’s defense ministry, is under Western sanctions over its activities relating to Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.”
  • Gas infrastructure isn’t the only thing hit in Isfahan. Coalition forces also hit “a building belonging to the electronics industries of the Ministry of Defense and the “Isfahan nuclear complex, damaging command and control center,” and “the headquarters of the Basij and Revolutionary Guard intelligence in Najafabad, Isfahan.”
  • Iran tried to hit Diego Garcia with missiles, some 2,800 miles away, and failed. This suggests that Mark Felton may have been too optimistic when he said Iranian missiles couldn’t hit London.
  • This falls into the “Big if true” category: “Three heavy bombers of the U.S. Air Force are currently conducting heavy strikes on the underground missile base of the IRGC Aerospace Force in Yazd, central Iran (Al-Qadir missile base). A total of six bunker-buster bombs have been dropped on the site by either B-1B heavy bombers flown from RAF Fairford in the United Kingdom or B-2A Spirit stealth bombers flown directly from Whiteman AFB in the United States.” I haven’t seen enough of Babak Taghvaee’s work to gauge the accuracy of this. (The few bits of his I’ve read have seemed accurate.) It seems like the sort target we would hit, but not knowing which bomber hit these targets suggests a source lacking firsthand knowledge. If anyone has a better bead on Taghvaee’s accuracy, feel free to share it in the comments below.
  • Not just over the Strait: The Warthog is also engaging Iranian back militias in Iraq.

  • VDH on the state of the war:

    Victor Davis Hanson has spent fifty years studying how wars end. When he says the tide is turning, it’s worth listening to why.

    His argument isn’t based on what the Pentagon is saying. It’s based on how everyone else is behaving.

    ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—˜๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜€. VDH’s rule: Europeans never agree to go anywhere near a conflict unless they think the winning side has already been determined. They didn’t help in the early days. Now they’re starting to move. That movement is not idealism. It’s a calculation. They’ve looked at the battlefield and decided which way this ends.

    ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—š๐˜‚๐—น๐—ณ ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ผ-๐—ป๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป๐˜€. The Saudis, the Emiratis, the Qataris โ€” these governments have survived for generations by reading the regional climate with precision. When they expel Iranian military attachรฉs, when they intercept Iranian missiles over their own capitals and say nothing about American strikes, when the UAE reaffirms its $1.4 trillion investment commitment to the United States mid-war โ€” they are not making ideological statements. They are placing bets. And they are betting on the United States.

    ๐—”๐—น ๐—๐—ฎ๐˜‡๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ. This is the one that should stop you cold. Al Jazeera โ€” the Qatari state media network, historically critical of American military action, the network Tucker Carlson and the anti-war right love to cite against Israel โ€” is now calling the U.S. bombing campaign brilliant and effective, and saying it has been underestimated. When the media outlet of a nation that hosts both the largest American air base in the Middle East and a Hamas political office starts praising American military effectiveness, the message is unmistakable: ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ฌ ๐˜ธ๐˜ฆ’๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜จ๐˜ฐ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ.

    ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—น๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜† ๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น. A-10 Warthogs and Apache helicopter gunships are now flying strike missions in Iranian airspace at will. VDH’s point: you only deploy those aircraft when there is effectively no air defense left to threaten them. They are slow, low-flying, close-support platforms. Their presence confirms what the Pentagon has been claiming โ€” Iran has no meaningful air defense remaining.

    Iran’s strategy now is rope-a-dope. Run out the clock. Wait for American public opinion to shift. Hope the midterms create political pressure on Trump to stop. It is the only play they have left.

    VDH’s conclusion: if Trump sees it through โ€” and he believes he will โ€” the regime falls. Not in years. ๐—ฃ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜๐˜๐˜† ๐˜€๐—ผ๐—ผ๐—ป.

    (Hat tip: Ed Driscoll at Instapundit.)

  • Trump the Chaos Magician strikes again.

    Since President Trump revealed contacts with the Islamic Republic, weโ€™re seeing something very telling inside Iran: chaos at the top.
    Regime officials are either turning on each other, pointing fingers, accusing one another of negotiating with the United States or in their own media and social platforms, theyโ€™re warning against character assassination of figures like Ghalibaf or Rouhani, because suspicion is spreading inside the regime itself.

    Some are even calling for arrests or worse. Others are publicly shaming officials, accusing them of secret talks.

    This is the atmosphere on the Islamic Republicโ€™s side of social media. Total panic.

    (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)

  • Jim Geraghty wonders “Why Are We Lifting Sanctions on Iranian Oil During a War with the Mullahs?” It’s a good question, though Trump seems to have a more intuitive grasp of alternating between carrots and sticks in negotiations than anyone I’ve ever seen. Also: “We have seen oil tankers carrying Russian oil divert from China to India in the aftermath of the Treasury Departmentโ€™s lifting of sanctions on their cargo: ‘At least seven tankers carrying Russian oil have switched their destinations mid-voyage from China to India, according to Vortexa Ltd., with all of Indiaโ€™s major refiners now in the market for the countryโ€™s crude.'”
  • “Three explosions in Bushehr following attacks on the airbase and airport in Iran.” Bushehr is reasonably close to Kharg Island.
  • “Iran launches 10 million rial note.” Hyperinflation is rarely a sign of military strength. Also: The 5 million rial note was introduced “just weeks earlier.”
  • Lebanon expels Iran’s ambassador.
  • Reports of power outages in Kuwait.
  • The Guardian (usual caveats apply) is saying that “Hundreds of petrol stations across Australia run out of fuel,” but Australian Energy Minister Chris Bowen states “Australia’s fuel supply remains strong and there are no immediate plans to ration fuel,” though the article admits “localized shortages.”
  • In Japan, gasoline prices have evidently hit record highs and the government is tapping national reserves, but tankers from UAE and Saudi Arabia bypassing the Strait of Hormuz are on the way.”
  • “Taiwan has about 11 days of liquefied natural gas reservesโ€”a limited buffer that has become critical after Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off key supplies from Qatar. Because Taiwan relies heavily on LNG to power its grid and semiconductor industry, any prolonged disruption could force energy rationing and threaten chip production.”
  • “Philippine president declares ‘national energy emergency‘, citing risks to fuel supply created by Middle East war.”
  • “The Bahrain Defense Force announces the death of an Emirati soldier during the response to Iranian attacks.”
  • “Iran executes 19-year-old champion wrestler Saleh Mohammadi, two others in horrific public hangings.”

    • Once again, this is just what I’ve been able to gather over the last few days. Feel free to share anything I missed in the comments below.

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    Posted in Foreign Policy, Jihad, Military | 8 Comments »

    Is Islamic Iran Cracking?

    Thursday, January 8th, 2026

    Yesterday I cautioned that the loss of two relatively minor Kurdish cities to anti-regime forces wasn’t a sign that the fall of the regime was imminent. However, today things seem to be getting much spicier, with reports that Mashhad, Iran’s second largest city, was under protestor control.

  • “Protests in Iran’s second largest city, Mashad, have surpassed 1 million participants. Unable to withstand the pressure from the protesters, security forces were forced to leave the city.”
  • “Footage circulating on social media shows demonstrators, mostly young people, chanting slogans against the ruling regime. Protesters say the clerical regime will soon be overthrown and that Reza Pahlavi will return to power.” While he would be an unquestionable improvement over the Mullahs, restoring the Pahlavi monarchy is not a course I would have expected or advised, but there seems to be a surprising amount of sentiment for it online. It’s impossible to say, at this remove, whether this sentiment is widespread among Iranian protestors.
  • “In cities, portraits of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as well as statues of Qasem Soleimani are being burned.”
  • Random protester: “Reza Pahlavi, come to Iran! Bibi Netanyahu, come to Iran!”
  • “A video released in social media shows a standoff between protesters and riot police in Iran’s northeastern Mashhad province as anti-government demonstrations have entered the 12th day. In the video, security units are seen pulling back in the face of large and angry crowds.”
  • “Government forces were also forced to retreat in Borazjan, Bushehr province in southern Iran.”
  • In other places, security forces are still shooting protestors.

    • Livemap snapshot? Sure, why not?

    Hard to tell whether those areas not showing protests are free of them, or whether we just lack information. One reason for that lack? The regime has shut down the Internet across the nation.

    Huge crowds of protesters have been marching through Iran’s capital and other cities, videos show, in what is said to be the largest show of force by opponents of the clerical establishment in years.

    The peaceful demonstrations in Tehran and the second city of Mashhad on Thursday evening, which were not dispersed by security forces, can be seen in footage verified by BBC Persian.

    Later, a monitoring group reported a nationwide internet blackout.

    Protesters can be heard in the footage calling for the overthrow of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the return of Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the late former shah, who had urged his supporters to take to the streets.

    It was the 12th consecutive day of unrest that has been sparked by anger over the collapse of the Iranian currency and has spread to more than 100 cities and towns across all 31 of Iran’s provinces, according to human rights groups.

    The US-based Human Rights Activist News Agency (HRANA) has said that at least 34 protesters and eight security personnel have been killed, and that 2,270 other protesters arrested.

    Norway-based monitor Iran Human Rights (IHR) has said at least 45 protesters, including eight children, have been killed by security forces.

    BBC Persian has confirmed the deaths and identities of 22 people, while Iranian authorities have reported the deaths of six security personnel.

    On Thursday evening, videos posted on social media and verified by BBC Persian showed a large crowd of protesters moving along a major road in Mashhad, in the country’s north-east.

    Chants of “Long live the shah” and “This is the final battle! Pahlavi will return” can be heard. And at one point, several men are seen climbing on an overpass and removing what appears to be surveillance cameras attached to it.

    Another video showed a large crowd of protesters walking along a major road in eastern Tehran, while in the north of the city a small gathering was heard chanting “Long live the shah” and “Death to the dictator” – a reference to Khamenei.

    Protesters were also filmed chanting “Long live the shah” at a main square in the northern city of Babol.

    It came not long after Reza Pahlavi, whose father was overthrown by the 1979 Islamic revolution and lives in Washington DC, had called on Iranians to “take to the streets and, as a united front, shout your demands”.

    Are the mullahs ready to topple? I remain unconvinced, but it does appear more likely than yesterday.

    And we’re creeping closer and closer to President Trump and allies thinking it’s time to give them a nudge.

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    Posted in Foreign Policy, Jihad | 7 Comments »