The Iran war is one months old and the usual Negative Nellies in the Democrat Media Complex are whinging that the war’s not won yet, or suggesting that the Trump Administration is looking for an “off ramp.” Funny how it takes time to defeat a nation of 92 million, even one where the regime is hated by its citizens and whose prewar air force looked like a museum. Everything we hear from CENTCOM is that the air campaign is on schedule.
And the “off ramp” for the war is regime change in Tehran.
- “The facility located in the city of Yazd served as a key production center for advanced missiles and sea mines intended for Iran’s naval forces.”
- “The site that was hit was reportedly involved in designing, assembling, and testing advanced missiles that could be launched from ships, submarines, and helicopters, targeting both moving and stationary vessels at sea.”
- “The Israeli Defense Forces described the location as the central hub of Iran’s naval strike capabilities, noting that weapons produced there had been used in operations that posed a threat to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.”
- “Following the strike, the facility’s production infrastructure and stores of ready-to-use missiles were said to have been completely destroyed.”
The anti-air capabilities of Prince Sultan Air Base still leave much to be desired.
Retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, the former commander of U.S. Central Command (Centcom), said Sunday that the U.S. military has been working on plans for a ground raid in Iran for years, as President Trump is reportedly considering sending troops into the war.
“Margaret, for many years we’ve considered options along the southern coast of Iran, seizing islands, seizing small bases. Typically raids. And a raid is an operation with a planned withdrawal. You’re not going to stay. But some of those islands you could seize and hold. That would have a couple effects,” McKenzie told CBS News’s Margaret Brennan on “Face the Nation.”
“First of all, it would be profoundly humiliating for Iran and would give us great weight in negotiations. The second, the example of Kharg Island, which everyone talks about, if you seize Kharg Island, you really can shut down the Iranian oil economy completely. And the beauty of seizing it is, you’re not destroying it,” he said.
- “The risks to global trade through the Strait of Hormuz have surged and the dynamics of Iran’s relationships with Russia and China are constantly in the spotlight. Recently, both countries have pressured Iran, urging diplomatic solutions to the crisis. On March 24th, China’s foreign ministry reported that Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with Iran, calling for seizing the opportunity for peace and negotiating as soon as possible.” So did Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
- “Analysts believe Russia has explicitly urged Iran to back down, signaling that Moscow views Iran as unable to continue fighting. Shortly afterward, China followed suit, aligning with Russia in terms of diplomatic timing. This indicates coordination between the two countries. Their shared goal is to maintain the stability of the Iranian regime, ensuring it continues to act as a strategic counterbalance to the United States.”
- “From Beijing’s perspective, Iran is not only a major energy supplier, but also a key node in the Belt and Road Initiative. Chinese investments in the country amount to at least hundreds of billions of dollars, covering oil and gas field development, port construction, and transportation networks. If the Iranian regime were completely overthrown, it would directly threaten China’s energy and geopolitical interests. Therefore, Beijing must intervene diplomatically and urge Iran to turn to negotiations.” A lot of observers believe that Belt and Road is already moribund.
- “A source close to China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, revealed to the Epoch Times that Iran has refused any purely diplomatic arrangements and instead pressured Beijing with selective security, linking substantial aid to the safe passage of Chinese commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. This is soft extortion. Without military assistance, China cannot ensure the smooth passage of its trade routes. Beijing’s multiple secret negotiations have ended in failure and its efforts to profit from the geopolitical game are now facing the dual impact of diplomatic imbalance and economic stagnation.”
- China also thought it could be a negotiating mediator between Washington and Tehran. Yeah, fat chance.
- “This crisis is essentially the inevitable backlash of China’s ‘wolf warrior diplomacy” and camp confrontation mentality.”
- “China’s leaders have fallen into a self-entangling dilemma. The forces they’ve supported are now cutting off their own economic lifelines. The disruption in the Straight of Hormuz is not only a rupture in global logistics, but also a microcosm of the complete collapse of China’s geopolitical strategy.”
- “You’re starting to see the Iranian regime looking for an exit ramp.”
Caveat: Not the best voiceover quality.
As usual, this is just the Iran news I felt significant enough to include in the roundup. If you think I’ve missed anything, feel free to share in the comments below.
Tags: A-10 Warthog, Abbas Karami, Air Force, Central Command (CENTCOM), China, China Observer, E-3 Sentry, Foreign Policy, Frank McKenzie, Haifa, Hassan Hassanzadeh AKA Hassan Hassan Zadeh, Hezbollah, Houthi, IDF, Iran, Iranian navy, Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Israel, Jihad, KC-135, Kharg Island, Kuwait, Lebanon, Litani River, Majid Zakriyai, Marines, Middle East, Military, naval mines, One Belt One Road, Operation Epic Fury, Pope Leo XIV, Prince Sultan Air Base, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Sergei Lavrov, Strait of Hormuz, Suchomimus, Tabriz, Tehran, USS New Orleans, USS Tripoli (LHA-7), video, Wang Yi, Yazd, Yemen
Open source satellite photos show two E-3G Sentry aircraft destroyed on a single cross runway taxi strip at Prince Sultan Air Base. The lead E-3G is the one burned in two which has featured prominently in reportage. The follower is blackened and wasn’t moved for at least 24 hours after the attack. At least 6 KC-135 Stratotankers on the apron show signs of damage inflicted in the same attack, in the same satellite photo series. The big question here is how the Iranians managed to strike two moving E-3G’s (presumably trying to escape) with missiles or drones.
The Makhteshim, Israel factory of ADAMA group was destroyed yesterday by an Iranian missile. The destroyed facility made more than 120 active ingredients for agricultural crop protection and pharmaceuticals. A major player in the Ag chemical business. This compounds the grief experienced by farmers with exploding diesel and fertilizer prices.
The Iranians destroyed a large warehouse full of Ukrainian anti-drone systems in Dubai with a missile strike on the 28th. 20 employees of the Ukraine Military Main Intelligence Directorate were killed, along with two Russian citizens. There is no explanation of how the Russian citizens were involved, but Dubai is returning their bodies to Russia, not Ukraine.
You can see the A-10s landing with the LITENING FLIR Pods.
“You can see the A-10s landing with the LITENING FLIR Pods.”
The A-10 shown landing in the OSINTtechnical X post hyperlinked in the above post is not so equipped. It has two very bright white landing lights mounted in the exact location where Rafael LITENING pods were installed on a few early A-10s.
Not certain that USAF will finish rewinging all the A-10s. The Korean wing program started with the lowest hour A-10s and has not been completed. At least 50 wings have not yet been delivered to Boeing. USAF tends to use the lowest flight hour planes, and those with full maintenance executions, for combat service when they can.
As Operation Spiderweb demonstrated, the easiest way to kill air assets is while they are on the ground.
The distributed drone attack netted 40 high-value aircraft—including strategic bombers Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 and A-50 planes that are similar to the the E-3 Sentry destroyed by Iran.
Didn’t the success of this operation make an impression on USAF command? Aircraft parked wing-to-wing make an inviting, high value target and you may be certain that the Russians, who got punished for using this dumb pet trick were quick to point this out to Iran’s military commanders while providing them with satellite reconnaissance of the aircraft formation.
“There is no explanation of how the Russian citizens were involved, but Dubai is returning their bodies to Russia, not Ukraine.”
The Russians were there to direct incoming fire, Comrade and will receive full military honors and a free Lada to their mistress. Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori.
Iran has threatened to turn off the oil spigot. Sea mines and toll gates and Houthis, oh my!
There is a way to cut this Gordian knot by way of overland transport.
“The [Tracks for Regional Peace] initiative would offer shorter, cheaper, and safer trade routes by bypassing unstable maritime chokepoints, such as the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea. A train line from Israel through Jordan to the Persian Gulf would also allow countries to bypass Lebanon, which is controlled by the Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah.”
https://israelmyglory.org/article/the-plan-to-hitch-israel-to-saudi-arabia-by-rail/
If the Strait of Hormuz proves to be untenable, the Tracks for Regional Peace initiative will assume an urgency that overrules the hesitation that is now hindering its realization. It will be one more chord binding the Abraham Accords, uniting the region against any future Iranian intrigues.
chord (sic) *cord*
Thanks for the article.
Here is a longer video for those that know.
It has two very bright white landing lights mounted in the exact location where Rafael LITENING pods were installed on a few early A-10s.
Now you are claiming landing lights as external hardpoint stores. 😂
The A-10 landing lights are mounted on the nose landing gear, which is offset to the right side to let the canon live on the centerline. See image (goes to Reddit) at https://i.redd.it/is1vngrkfzt11.jpg
“Here is a longer video for those that know.”
Thanks for the video. It reminds me somewhat of the streams of aircraft departing Elemendorf Air Force in the wake of 9/11. As the planes flew low overhead, the air shook as though it held onto some suppressed rage. “Those poor, dumb bastards,” I thought. “They have no idea what they just unleashed.”
God speed to the Warthogs.
“The big question here is how the Iranians managed to strike two moving E-3G’s (presumably trying to escape) with missiles or drones.”
Why indeed?
Israel’s multilayered missile defense system is comprised of the Iron Dome for short-range rockets, David’s Sling for medium-to-long-range threats, and the Arrow system (Arrow 2 and Arrow 3) for intercepting ballistic missiles, including in space.
In addition, naval patrol boats have successfully tested the “C-Dome” which is a SAM that closely mimics the Iron Dome but having greater mobility. No list of interceptors is complete without mentioning Iron Beam–an energy directed weapon.
This system was developed largely in response to rocket attacks from Iranian proxies in Gaza, South Lebanon and Yemen. It has been rigorously tested in combat to include missile attacks from Iran and has shown itself to be robust and reliable.
However, it relies on data from sensors and radars that are vulnerable to drone attacks. Ukraine has demonstrated the vulnerability of such radar station emplacements in Crimea, It is likely that Russian drones are being sent to Iran.and it is a certainty that Russia is applying its own relevant battlefield experience to Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion.
“The A-10 landing lights are mounted on the nose landing gear, which is offset to the right side to let the canon live on the centerline. See image (goes to Reddit) at https://i.redd.it/is1vngrkfzt11.jpg”
The LITENING pods were mounted on pylons dropped from the starboard side of the fuselage. Directly below the canopy/windscreen joint. When present, the pylon completely blocks any view of the landing lights from a 3/4 front right (45°) view.
Think Leland was seeing the front wheel well cover door, not the LITENING pylon.
Vahid Shahcheraghi has risen from the dead and is in complete charge of the IRGC. He and Mohsen Rezaee Mirgha’ed are running Iran.
<i: The LITENING pods were mounted on pylons dropped from the starboard side of the fuselage. Directly below the canopy/windscreen joint. When present, the pylon completely blocks any view of the landing lights from a 3/4 front right (45°) view.
🤣 Nothing in that paragraph is correct. Please keep coming back and telling us what you don’t know. 🤣
The laser tracker PAVE PENNY used to be installed on a hardpoint below the A-10A cockpit. When present, it sat a foot above the nose landing gear mounted landing light. That hardpoint location was removed in the A-10C upgrades because firing the cannon shook the hell out of the electronics. The A-10C has never had that hardpoint and therefore no LITENING pod was ever mounted there.
“Nothing in that paragraph is correct. Please keep coming back and telling us what you don’t know.”
This is a fairly accurate assessment of the technique commonly used by Comrade Cartridge, delivered in his pedantic style and invariably irrelevant to the OP.
“USAF tends to use the lowest flight hour planes, and those with full maintenance executions, for combat service when they can.”
There are now 30 A-10s in theater. The Strait of Hormuz is narrow, approximately 21 miles wide at its chokepoint. The Warthogs are there in sufficient numbers to perform a tracheotomy
The news that is needed is what are Iranian democracy advocates up to? Are there any such people? Do they have leadership, a plan of action? As it is, this war seems an unplanned mess. I do not think Trump expected the Israelis to act unilaterally and target assassinate everyone Trump was planning to negotiate with.
It is fortunate that Iranian missile capabilities have been severely degraded because ground-based assets in the Gulf have became more vulnerable.
IRGC Strike Shakes American Missile Defense Shield Across the Gulf
“[T]he Qatari Ministry of Defense has confirmed that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) successfully destroyed a key US-operated early warning radar system stationed in Qatar,..”
https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/iran-destroys-us-an-fps-132-radar-qatar-irgc-missile-defense-gulf-escalation/