Posts Tagged ‘video’

Ukrainian Robots 1, Russian Horses 0

Tuesday, January 6th, 2026

Russia decided to attack a Ukrainian position “manned” by a robot (OK, technically an unmanned, remote-operated combat vehicle rather than a real robot) with troops on horseback.

The assault went every bit as well as you would expect.

  • “Ukraine just completed an operation where a ground drone held a position for weeks, implementing innovative technologies for full frontline rotations aimed at replacing infantry. Russia, on the other hand, has introduced an outdated tactic and reintroduced cavalry, with soldiers riding horses to attack Ukrainians over open fields.”
  • “This contrast was laid bare as Ukraine’s Third Army Corps continued scaling robotic warfare, demonstrating that ground drones are not only for assaults but can also hold defensive lines for extended periods. One striking example came when a DevDroid ground robot was equipped with a 12.7 mm Browning M2 machine gun.” That’s .50 BMG in Freedom Units, AKA “Ma Deuce.”
  • “For 45 consecutive days, the robot held a frontline position instead of infantry, suppressing enemy movement and repelling assaults without a single Ukrainian casualty. Operated remotely from cover and equipped with thermal vision, the system detected Russian movements in complete darkness, turning night assaults into one-sided engagements where attackers stood no chance.”
  • “Such operations are sustained by an efficient, decentralized system, with Ukrainian drones remotely controlled from bunkers or armored vehicles and operating in close coordination with aerial drones that scout, jam, and strike targets. With operators positioned behind the contact line and maintenance handled in small frontline workshops embedded within brigades, where technicians repair tracks, sensors, and electronics within hours using mobile tools and 3D-printed components. From there, moving into positions where Russians were detected, using relays from air drones to extend operational range, the ground drones would then return just for a swift swap of batteries, together with the ammo to achieve quick turnaround times and ensure constant defense of the sector.”
  • “While Ukraine is moving forward technologically, Russia is moving backward. On the Pokrovsk front, where Moscow has concentrated the highest number of soldiers and some of its most capable units, Ukrainian soldiers from the 92nd Separate Assault Brigade documented Russian troops advancing on horseback. The first time they were spotted, the Ukrainian operators had no idea what to do and had no choice but to unfortunately hit both the rider and the horse.”

    Poor horsies.

  • “However, immediately afterwards, Ukrainian operators devised and shared a plan that was soon realized, when they deliberately frightened the horses with flybys, causing them to bolt and throw their riders, before neutralizing the dismounted soldiers while sparing the animals. More footage confirms that Russian forces are increasingly using horses in assaults, a tactic unseen on European battlefields for more than a century.” Reporting from Ukraine is mistaken here. Polish cavalry mounted a charge against German infantry at Krojanty in September of 1939, a mere 87 years ago. (However, despite the myth, Polish cavalry did not attack German tanks.)
  • “This return of cavalry is not symbolic but driven by necessity, as Russian losses in vehicles and armored transport have been so severe that even elite units are forced to rely on animals to move troops and supplies; yet against drones equipped with thermal sensors and precision munitions, the clash is brutally uneven, and the Russian command appears willing to repeat these futile attacks regardless of the cost.”
  • “The contrast between the two armies could not be clearer, with Ukraine using drones to solve its manpower challenge by deliberately building a force where technology absorbs risk and preserves lives, as shown by the recruitment of 10,000 new drone operators in less than a month under Magyar’s leadership, while Russia lacks any real way to compensate for its losses and instead falls back on attrition, improvisation, and tactics pulled from the past.”
  • There’s still a small role for horses in warfare in places where vehicles can’t go (such as Afghanistan, where U.S. special forces employed horses in the mountainous terrain). Ukraine’s notoriously flat and muddy terrain would seem ill-suited for beasts.

    Especially for cavalry charges.

    Venezuela Fallout Roundup For January 5, 2026

    Monday, January 5th, 2026

    Here’s a roundup of Venezuela news since the successful operation to snatch him on Saturday.

  • Will Venezuela’s leaders play ball with President Trump? Signs point to yes.

    At a moment Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro and his wife Flores are set to appear before a New York federal judge on various drug-trafficking and gun-running related charges, his VP and now apparently Interim President Delcy Rodriguez is offering a huge olive branch.

    This is unsurprising given the staunchly socialist, pro-Maduro number two under the ousted president is herself under immense pressure from Washington, and still facing down the barrel of Uncle Sam’s gun – or rather the collective might of the Pentagon’s persisting US naval blockade just off Latin America’s coast.

    he’s quickly expressed her willingness to cooperate with the United States on the future of Venezuela, in a significant shift in tone following Maduro’s Friday into Saturday morning ‘shock’ abduction by US special forces.

    “We consider it a priority to move towards a balanced and respectful relationship between the US and Venezuela,” Rodriguez wrote on Telegram Sunday.

    And more than that, her following words convey willingness of Caracas to bend the knee: “We extend an invitation to the US government to work together on a cooperation agenda, aimed at shared development, within the framework of international law, and to strengthen lasting community coexistence,” she stated.

    Snip.

    President Trump has warned that if authorities in Venezuela fail to cooperate, the United States would carry out a second strike on Venezuela, noting that any decision to deploy ground troops there would depend on how the situation develops and how Venezuela responds.

    So cooperate with the United States in transition to a Democratic, non-Socialist government (and presumably retire to seized mansions with shares of their ill-gotten loot), or get droned. This should be an easy choice…

  • So who’s in charge of Venezuela now? President Trump says we are.

    President Donald Trump said the United States will “run” Venezuela until a peaceful transition of power is executed, following an operation carried out in the Latin American country early Saturday morning that successfully captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife.

    “We’re going to run this country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition,” Trump said from Mar-a-Lago during a press conference. “We want peace, liberty, and justice for the great people of Venezuela, and that includes many from Venezuela that are now living in the United States and want to go back to their country. It’s their homeland.”

    Asked on Saturday who would be running the country, Trump said that they would be designating people but that, “for a period of time,” it would largely be those standing behind him at the press conference — apparently meaning Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine.

    The United States is in Venezuela, and will remain in the country until a “proper transition can take place,” Trump said.

    General Caine said the attack was known as “Operation Absolute Resolve.” The president clarified that no American lives or military equipment were lost during the operation, and the embargo on Venezuelan oil also remains in full effect.

  • Just how dominant America’s military was in carrying out the operation is covered by this France24 clip:

    • “Only the US can carry out this kind of mission, so far from home at such a scale and with such coordination.”
    • “At least they’re the only country to have proved that they can still do it.”
    • “And now when we hear that jargon from Dan Caine about air and space support providing layering effects. That’s not just firepower, but it’s everything that’s needed to protect those helicopters as they went into that highly defended capital city and got out again. This requires not just the latest in satellite technology, high-tech jamming, stealth drones, but also just months of old school intelligence, fighter jet platforms that have been tried and tested over decades, and of course, sheer numbers just to provide that operational redundancy.”
    • The U.S. also managed to blackout Caracas during the attack.
    • “We can assume that the Space Force obviously provided latest state-of-the-art mapping to their forces, and potentially threw Venezuelan tracking off the scent as well. The Americans would have also used their EA-18G Growler aircraft which we know were involved. They have highly sophisticated jamming technology. The F-35s that were used can also use electronic warfare capabilities and jamming. So that could well have knocked out a lot of the Venezuelan radar.”

    Combined arms are hard, but no one does them as well, or has the sheer reach, of the United States military.

  • More on just how the operation was carried out.

    The public narrative, stitched together from US statements and multiple reports, looks like this: months of planning, a narrow window, a rapid “snatch” mission at a heavily protected residence, and a fast exfiltration under fire.

    Thank to reporting by the New York Times, we know the CIA has been on the ground in Venezuela for some time. They were almost certainly collecting the intelligence necessary for this exact operation.

    US officials described a five-hour operation with more than 150 aircraft launching from roughly 20 bases across the Western Hemisphere, with a helicopter-borne ground force as the core maneuver element.

    If those numbers are accurate, this was not a raid. This was a joint campaign compressed into one night.

    Start with the centerpiece: USS Iwo Jima.

    A quick aside: When I was in high school in Texas, I was a member of the Air Force junior ROTC. We were invited to march in three Mardi Gras parades in New Orleans, and we stayed aboard the USS Iwo Jima while we were there.

    A Wasp-class LHD is a Swiss Army knife that swims. It gives you a flight deck, fuel, maintenance, command spaces, medical capacity, and the ability to surge rotary-wing sorties without asking anyone’s permission to use their runway.

    If you want to push helicopters into a denied or semi-denied area and pull them back out fast, a big-deck amphib is the kind of platform you park nearby.

    That matters because the reported “tip of the spear” was US special operations aviation. Multiple reports point to a large contingent of 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment or SOAR helicopters, also called the Night Stalkers, involved.

    The 160th’s whole personality is flying low, at night, in bad weather, into places that don’t want them there, and bringing your people home anyway.

    For reference, it was the Night Stalkers who played a critical role in the raid that killed Osama bin Laden (Operation Neptune Spear).

    I’ve personally ridden with the Night Stalkers at Fort Campbell while in the Army… They can do some crazy shit with helicopters. I should note that I was not special forces, I was just hitching a ride as a grunt.

    In Venezuela, those helicopters carried US Army Delta Force soldiers along with FBI agents who would perform the actual snatch (or kill if Maduro resisted).

    Some readers might be wondering what the difference is between Delta Force and a group like the US Navy SEALs.

    Well, first of all, SEALs always have a promising career in Hollywood waiting for them after their service… Or a lucrative book deal. Fucking prima donnas.

    Delta are the “quiet professionals”.

    Jokes aside, Delta Force and SEAL teams are both elite Tier 1 special mission units under JSOC, handling complex counterterrorism, hostage rescue, and direct action missions, but differ in their backgrounds and specializations. Delta excels in land-based, covert operations, while SEAL Team Six (DEVGRU) retains maritime roots, training SEALs for sea-based operations.

    SEALs could have easily performed this operation and they may have been involved, but my initial sources are telling me it was Delta.

    Reports from multiple outlets confirm that FBI Hostage Rescue Team (HRT) agents, physically executed the takedown of Nicolás Maduro inside Caracas.

    That pairing, America’s most elite special mission unit (Delta) and its most capable federal law enforcement strike team, is unusual but not unprecedented.

    It signals one important thing: Washington wanted Maduro alive and in custody, not vaporized.

    Delta Force, formally known as 1st Special Forces Operational Detachment-Delta (Airborne), is the Army’s top-tier counterterrorism and direct action unit. Their bread and butter isn’t messy firefights or holding ground, it’s surgical raids, high-value target snatches, and hostage rescue under conditions that would make most mortals short-circuit.

    If a door needs breaching in a palace defended by an armored brigade, Delta is who goes through it.

    The FBI’s Hostage Rescue Team, meanwhile, exists in that strange intersection between domestic law enforcement and tactical counterterrorism. They’re federal agents first but trained to the same operational standard as their military counterparts.

    When American leadership needs a mission with law enforcement optics like arrest warrants, indictments, legal custody, the HRT adds the thin blue veneer that separates an extradition from an invasion.

    In practice, the operation probably looked like this: Delta cleared the perimeter and neutralized armed resistance. HRT followed close behind, securing the detainees and beginning immediate chain-of-custody procedures to satisfy Justice Department requirements.

    The Night Stalkers with their Delta/FBI contingent were supported by an impressive stack of US military hardware: F-22s, F-35s, F/A-18s, EA-18s, E-2s, B-1 bombers, Sentry, and “numerous” remotely piloted aircraft.

    F-22s are air dominance and high-end insurance. They deter or swat down any manned aerial response, and they do it before the other side’s pilots finish their climb.

    F-35s are the quiet burglars. They sniff emitters, map threats, and cue strikes. If you want to dismantle air defenses quickly, you bring the jet that was built to hunt radars. We currently don’t know how many air defense systems the F-35s removed, but I’m sure we will learn more in the coming days.

    F/A-18s and EA-18Gs are the Navy’s workhorses for strike and electronic attack. The Growler exists to turn an air defense network into a migraine.

    An E-2 Hawkeye is the Navy’s “baby Sentry” airborne battle management. It gives the air picture, deconflicts assets, and helps keep fratricide from becoming the main headline.

    B-1s presence signals: if you escalate, we will flatten the area. They also provide standoff fires and a psychological effect that Venezuelan air defenders will be aware of.

    E-3 Sentry is the quarterback.

    I doubt B-1s were on call, but the presence of the other assets seems logical. (Hat tip: Sarah Hoyt at Instapundit.)

  • Suchomimus has a detailed look at exactly where U.S. forces landed near Maduro’s bunker to capture him, and what Venezuelan military equipment they took out in the process:

    • Among those taken out was a Russian 9K37 Buk SAM system. “Russian air defense systems proving to be just as useless in Venezuela as they are in Ukraine and Russia.”
    • “There were some reports a few weeks back that Russia tried to bulk up Venezuela’s air defense by sending two S300 launchers and two book SAM systems, as well as up to a dozen to SAM systems as well….And all for naught. The American operation was a complete success, with zero American aircraft shot down.”
  • Did Chinese radar also fail?

  • How are ordinary Venezuelans taking Maduro’s capture? They’re celebrating:

  • Heh:

  • Triggernometry adds some background on just how much socialism in Venezuela sucks:

    Plus this: “Nicholas’s Maduros’s nephews were captured by the DA in Haiti with kilos of cocaine. They were brought here. They went to trial. They were declared guilty. And then Biden pardoned them and sent them back.”

    Maybe part of the eventual settlement with Venezuela can include banks records for all regime payments to American politicos…

  • And speaking of Democrats, they’re melting down over Maduro’s capture.

    While Venezuelans hit the streets in wild celebration, popping bottles and celebrating freedom, Democrats in Washington, D.C., clutched their pearls and went into full meltdown mode, accusing Trump of getting us into a war and violating the Constitution.

    “Trump’s unilateral operation last night was an illegal act of war without Congress’s authorization,” Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) claimed.

    “Maduro is a brutal dictator who has oppressed the Venezuelan people, but our constitution does not yield for bad people. If Congress is to survive as an institution, the Republican majority must join us exercising our power to hold this administration accountable for this flagrant violation of the constitution.”

    He wasn’t the only Democrat to claim that Trump acted illegally.

    “Without authorization from Congress, and with the vast majority of Americans opposed to military action, Trump just launched an unjustified, illegal strike on Venezuela,” Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) claimed.

    “He says we don’t have enough money for healthcare for Americans—but somehow we have unlimited funds for war??”

    Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) also chimed in.

    “President Trump’s unilateral military action to attack another country and seize Maduro — no matter how terrible a dictator he is — is unconstitutional and threatens to drag the U.S. into further conflicts in the region,” she argued.

    “The American people voted for lower costs, not for Trump’s dangerous military adventurism overseas that won’t make the American people safer.”

    Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) similarly accused Trump of getting the United States into an “illegal” war.

    “This war is illegal, it’s embarrassing that we went from the world cop to the world bully in less than one year,” he said.

    But these claims don’t hold water.

    “Trump does not need congressional approval for this type of operation,” explains constitutional scholar Jonathan Turley. “Presidents, including Democratic presidents, have launched lethal attacks regularly against individuals. President Barack Obama killed an American citizen under this ‘kill list’ policy. If Obama can vaporize an American citizen without even a criminal charge, Trump can capture a foreign citizen with a pending criminal indictment without prior congressional approval.”

  • You know who else hates Maduro’s capture? The current leaders of China, Russia and Iran.

    President Trump’s historic intervention in Venezuela offers needed hope to friends of freedom around the world and nervous traders in the oil market.

    A pro-America, free-market government could unleash the country’s oil potential and lower energy prices around the globe. This is bad news for the Kremlin and clerics in Iran, who need high oil prices to perpetuate their regimes.

    For decades, Venezuela’s socialist leaders have plunged their country into a black hole of poverty. Populist leader Hugo Chavez promised his voters unlimited riches. Nicolás Maduro, Chavez’s hand-picked successor, turned those hopes into an economic nightmare.

    Chavez and Maduro seized the infrastructure of American oil firms in their country and ran the national economy into the ground. Under Maduro’s rule, the economic decline in Venezuela has been worse than the Great Depression in the US.

    In the 1930s, America’s GDP declined by 30%.

    Under Maduro, Venezuela’s economy has shrunk by about 75%, and Moscow and Beijing have been circling like vultures.

    Last year, China purchased around 568,000 barrels per day from Venezuela; and Beijing needs Venezuela to fuel its economy. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin has been keen to keep the Maduro regime as a proxy in the Western Hemisphere.

    The loss of Maduro in Caracas, who has welcomed Russian weapons and support to prop up his wobbly regime, is a major blow to Moscow. It also sends a powerful message to dictators around the world who look to America’s rivals as an alternative to US leadership: When the chips are down, Putin and Xi Jinping can’t help you.

    While Maduro was in power, both Putin and Xi were eager to include oil-rich Venezuela in their “Axis of Aggressors.”

    Trump abruptly changed the geopolitical balance by putting Maduro in handcuffs. He can now put more pressure on Beijing and box out Moscow’s hopes for a sustained partnership with Caracas.

    The clerics in Tehran are also worried. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps needs Venezuela to enable its sanctions-evasion schemes that were in place under Maduro. Worse, the ghost tanker fleet that serviced the IRGC out of Venezuela is now in jeopardy. And with the prospect of increased Venezuelan oil exports, there’s a potential opportunity to put a squeeze on all remaining Iranian oil.

    Funny how often Democrats are on the save wavelength as the dictators in Moscow, Beijing and Tehran when it comes to opposing Donald Trump’s foreign policy successes…

  • Ding Dong Maduro’s Gone

    Saturday, January 3rd, 2026

    It’s always a pleasure to wake up to find another communist dictatorship dumped into the dustbin of history.

    President Trump announced early Saturday morning that U.S. forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife during a “large scale strike against Venezuela,” a dramatic conclusion to Trump’s months-long pressure campaign to oust the socialist dictator.

    Shortly after Trump’s announcement, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that Maduro and his wife had been indicted in the Southern District of New York on drug trafficking and firearm charges.

    “They will soon face the full wrath of American justice on American soil in American courts,” Bondi said of Maduro and his wife.

    Venezuelan officials did not immediately release casualty numbers but said that the operation did result in Venezuelan deaths.

    Trump administration officials have long argued that Maduro, who seized power in 2013, is an illegitimate ruler and is responsible for trafficking vast quantities of cocaine into the U.S. He was indicted in 2020 in the U.S. on charges that he was the active leader of a drug cartel known as Cartel de los Soles.

    Despite the surge in socialism among the Democratic Party’s ideological core, it’s long been a bipartisan foreign policy position that Maduro’s regime is illegitimate. The Biden regime considered Maduro’s regime illegitimate, with then Secretary of State Antony Blinken recognizing opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia as the legitimate winner of the 2024 Presidential election, just as the Trump45 Administration and the Organization of American States had previously recognized opposition leader Juan Guaido as the legitimate President of Venezuela in 2019.

    Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s only public comment on the operation consists of a reposted social message, originally published in July of last year, stating that “Maduro is NOT the President of Venezuela and his regime is NOT the legitimate government.”

    The Pentagon has been amassing warships, troops, and air assets in the Caribbean since August and has attacked many small vessels which Pentagon officials insist were carrying drugs, killing at least 115 people. The U.S. has also seized two Venezuelan oil tankers in recent weeks, disrupting the Maduro regime’s main source of revenue.

    Though reports seem light on military details, Suchomimus has video footage of airstrikes hitting military targets in Caracas, noting the presence of Chinook helicopters over the city:

    He suggests that the airstrikes were mainly to take out anti-aircraft emplacements to clear the way for the Chinooks.

    Maduro has been on borrowed time since at least the 2019 uprising against him over food shortages.

    Lifting the dead corpse of socialism off the backs of the Venezuelan people is a huge accomplishment, as is removing another ally from the Russia-China Axis of Assholes. It also shows that the Monroe Doctrine is alive and well.

    Now: How long until district court judge James Boasberg declare that Trump must restore Maduro to power?

    Also: Cuba and Iran should consider themselves on notice…

    (Headline credit to commenter A. Nonymous.)

    Is Dan Crenshaw Pussing Out On Shawn Ryan?

    Thursday, January 1st, 2026

    When last we checked on this story, Texas Republican Congressman Dan Crenshaw was threatening to sue YouTuber Shawn Ryan over comments Ryan had made about Crenshaw, and Crenshaw had agreed to come on Ryan’s show to address the issues.

    Guess what? Rep. Crenshaw appears to be pussing out by refusing to sign Ryan’s standard release form.

  • “I need to talk to you about the Dan Crenshaw situation. As many of you know, he sent me a cease and desist, threatened to sue me. I made a rebuttal. I invited him on the show. Then he challenged me. I accepted. I said, ‘Okay, perfect. January 2nd to come on this show, you have to sign a release form.'”
  • “Everybody that’s been on this show since around episode 10 has signed a release form. President Trump, J.D. Vance, Tulsi Gabbard, Joe Kent, lots of very important people, much more important than a congressman have signed that release form. Everybody that has been interviewed in the new studio has signed the exact same release form.”
  • “Dan and his attorneys, they don’t want to sign the release form. They want special concessions. We sent them that release form on December 26th. They then sent a bunch of red lines. We said we’re not making any special circumstances or modifying our release form for the congressman. I’m sorry, that’s not going to happen.”
  • “But we will make some special concessions for his protection on another document and send that over.” You know, I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that Rep. Crenshaw doesn’t need more protections than Donald Trump.
  • “Well, they have yet to sign either one of those documents. I have to have those documents signed to interview somebody. Everybody’s done it.”
  • “I talked to my attorney. I said, ‘I think this is what’s going to happen. They are going to wait until close of business on New Year’s Eve to send some type of a communication in hopes that we don’t get it because who the hell is checking their email at 10:00 at night on New Year’s Eve?’ Well, guess what?”
  • “We get an email at 10 o’clock at night from Dan’s campaign manager on New Year’s Eve, where the next day is a national holiday and nobody’s behind their decks. And the next day it’s game day. It’s interview time.”
  • “They said, ‘We’re booked. We’ve booked the hotel that you’ve recommended. Will somebody be there to pick us up?’ There was no mention of the release forms.”
  • “So, here’s what’s going to happen. They’re going to come here and they’re going to make a big stink on how I didn’t interview them and how I was scared to interview them or whatever, but they’re hiding behind the paperwork.”
  • “Dan, I am now redacting my invitation for you to come on my show. I gave you the opportunity to be a man. You didn’t take it.”
  • “I gave you the opportunity to speak to five and a half million people and prove to them that you are not insider trading. That’s a fucking gift. I might add, a gift that not very many people get, and you turned it down.”
  • “I’m not going to interview you now. I don’t play games.”
  • “This is what you do, Dan. You’re a bully. You bully people into submission. Anybody that scrutinizes you, you send them a nasty gram and you threaten to sue them. And that works. Unfortunately, it didn’t work on me.”
  • Assuming all this is true (and right now I have no reason not to believe it’s true), Rep. Crenshaw comes off looking even worse than he did before threatening to sue Ryan.

    If Crenshaw doesn’t have anything to hide about his finances, he’s sure acting like someone who has something to hide…

    Russia vs. NATO Video Roundup

    Sunday, December 28th, 2025

    For some reason, Vladimir Putin seems to think he can force NATO to back down from supporting Ukraine against his illegal war of territorial aggression by launching various provocations. Here’s a roundup of recent NATO country responses to Russia.

    First up: Cappy Army on NATO beefing up it’s defensive line against Russia:

  • “NATO is racing to build a multi-billion dollar 2,000 mile long defensive line that stretches across the entire European continent.”
  • “There are several names for the new fortification depending on the section you’re standing at. In the Baltics, it’s officially known as the Eastern Flank Deterrence Line, which is a 500 mile long network of bunkers and fortified border zones.”
  • “The Eastern Flank Deterrence Line is not mainly physical barriers, because the distance is far too great. Instead, it’s a network of computer sensors to fill these physical gaps. It’s not designed to completely defeat a potential Russian conventional advance. It’s made to slow down and channel the enemy’s forces into these predetermined kill zones.”
  • “The Army and NATO’s focusing their efforts at the places deemed most vulnerable in the Baltics. Here they’re deploying a layered modular barrier system that runs 30 miles deep.” First they hit sensors lines, then get a dose of HIMARS and artillery, then drone swarms in the air and on the ground. “Estimates are these methods will have to kill or wound 70% of the attacking force to be successful.”
  • The length of the entire defensive line is roughly the length of the U.S.-Mexico border.
  • “It’s designed this way to cover large sections of land that may not already have trenches pre-plotted artillery and mortar kill zone are linked to a network of sensors and then anything that makes it past that runs into rows of landmines, then physical obstacles, including anti-vehicle ditches and rows of concrete dragons teeth. These are strategically placed at the high-speed avenues of approach that lead directly to the Baltic state capitals.”
  • “The second line of defensive positions in the network is over 600 bunkers of distributed firing positions, trenches, and roadblocks. Infantry and anti-tank javelin teams fight from here.”
  • “The European Deterrence Initiative in the United States requested $2.9 billion from America in 2025 to deter Russia. Poland’s portion of the defensive line will cost over $50 billion with much of that funding coming from the EU. And the Baltics and Finland are spending a combined billions of dollars more as well.”
  • “Similar to the Cold War doctrine, [Baltic forces are] a kind of tripwire force here. Troops stationed here jokingly refer to themselves as tactical speed bumps.” The idea is to buy time until reinforcements arrive.”
  • “In Estonia, there’s only 127 miles from the border with Russia to the capital city.”
  • “The defining issue along the defensive wall is manpower. The shortage of manpower is what has shaped all of the decisions for how this fortification is being built. The Estonian army has roughly 6,000 active soldiers with a NATO force of 2,000 UK and French troops also deployed here. And if we look across the whole Baltics, we see that there’s roughly 29,000 active duty soldiers total here. This does not fully take into account reserve forces or air power advantages, but it outlines the basic tactical problem.”
  • In Poland the defensive line continues under the name Eastern Shield. “This runs from the Kalinigrad enclave down along Belarus and towards Slovakia, which is another 500 miles.”
  • “Poland’s Eastern Shield has an entirely different strategy than the Baltics. They expect to absorb the first hit and then fight a long, protracted war on their own soil if they have to. The shield here does not have the benefit of being built around geographic obstacles like in the Baltics. This is why you see full-length anti-tank ditches and multi-mile long trench systems laid out in depth.”
  • “The scale of the project is gigantic, with 8,000 combat engineers working to lay 10,000 concrete dragon’s teeth and over 800 miles of layered anti- vehicle barriers backed up by massive amounts of artillery. Terrain denial is the focus on this stretch.”
  • “Manpower and mass is less of a problem on this section of the front, because in Poland there’s 280,000 well-trained and equipped active forces with an additional 10,000 American soldiers already stationed there before reinforcements arrive.”
  • “The defining piece of this part of the puzzle is the anti-air assets, with 48 Patriot air defense launchers provide a protective umbrella for forces massing here.”
  • “The logistics backbone is being built here. Poland would be the transit region into the Baltics and much of the large stockpile of fuel and ammo are positioned here because they have the space.”
  • NATO has a more difficult problem defending Poland than the Warsaw Pact did when Moscow called the shots. “Today’s NATO and EU is an alliance of sovereign states that must coordinate instead of obey. This makes rapid unified action more difficult.”
  • “The US Army themselves acknowledge Russia has the advantage in manpower and equipment on this front, and that Russia can choose the time and place of the attack.” I sincerely doubt Russia has the equipment or manpower advantage now that Vlad’s Big Adventure has run through Soviet-era tank stockpiles and slaughtered Russian manpower to gain tiny slivers of Ukrainian territory.
  • A history of static defenses snipped and Cold War defensive realities snipped.
  • NATO General Chris Donahue: “The massive momentum problem that Russia poses to us, we’ve developed the capability to make sure that we can stop that mass and momentum problem.”
  • In their panic over Ukraine slowly destroy both their Black Sea fleet and their shadow fleet, Russia has managed to piss Turkey off:

  • “After Russian forces increased their activity and provocations over [the Black Sea] and NATO country’s airspace, Turkey was the first to act and shot down Russian surveillance drones without warning.”
  • “As more accidents followed, the Russians are now at risk of facing the Turkish wrath, getting all their trade cut off outright without any strikes needed.”
  • A Russian drone with transponder equipment was found on the ground in a Romanian forest. “With a wingspan of roughly 2 meters, Romanian authorities assessed that the device had been used to monitor NATO facilities or track military aid deliveries to Ukraine.”
  • “Three separate Russian drones violated Turkish airspace, pushing the country closer to decisive action. The first incident occurred when a Russian drone entered Turkish airspace from the Black Sea. Turkish air defense reacted swiftly and F-16 fighter jets intercepted the target, ultimately shooting it down with an M9X sidewinder missile.”
  • “The second incident was even more alarming when a Russian Orlan reconnaissance drone crashed near the city of Izmit just 50 kilometers from Istanbul.”
  • “The third case involved debris from a Russian Merlin reconnaissance drone discovered in western Turkey. The Merlin can remain airborne for up to 10 hours flying at altitudes of up to 5 kilometers and carrying advanced opto-electronic sensors. Its presence again pointed to sustained intelligence gathering activity rather than an isolated malfunction.”
  • “If Ankara were to sight repeated Russian drone incursions as a security threat, it could even restrict civilian Russian shipping through the Bosphorus in retaliation. The consequences would be severe as such a move would devastate Russia’s Black Sea trade and challenged the 1936 Montreux Convention, guaranteeing free passage for merchant vessels.”
  • “Russian drone operations continue, Ankara appears willing not only to shut down the sky over the Black Sea, but also to potentially escalate further and close the boss for us, making it clear that spying on NATO members in the region will carry real and costly consequences.”
  • Remember the piece on how Denmark is strangling Russi’s oil lifeline through the Baltic? Russia has responded by putting Wagner mercenaries on its merchant ships.

  • “Russia’s shadow fleet is coming under mounting pressure in the Baltic, as interceptions increase and European states move more aggressively against sanctioned vessels. However, now Russia is responding by placing Wagner mercenaries on board these ships, bringing one of its most violent forces directly into Nato-monitored waters.”
  • “The European Union has just released a new sanctions package targeting forty-one additional shadow fleet vessels, bringing the total to more than six hundred ships now barred from European-linked ports, insurance, and services. These ships are losing access to harbors, maintenance, and technical certification, which forces Moscow to rely on improvised routes that squeeze through increasingly narrow corridors.”
  • “Beyond oil, these vessels also move sensitive cargo linked to Russia’s war effort, which makes each interception far more consequential than a financial loss alone, and as enforcement tightens, the risk shifts from paperwork violations to direct seizure.”
  • This shift became visible when Swedish authorities detained the Russian cargo vessel Adler after it entered Swedish waters with unresolved documentation issues. The ship’s owner is sanctioned for transporting materials linked to Russia’s weapons production, and when Adler suffered engine trouble in Swedish waters, the crew could not produce clean documentation. Swedish authorities boarded immediately, as the detention came amid growing reports that Russia has begun placing Wagner mercenaries on board shadow fleet vessels, raising the stakes for any inspection or boarding operation, and signaling that European states are no longer intimidated by the possibility of armed Russians on these vessels.”
  • “According to Danish maritime pilots, once Wagner personnel are on board, they often restrict access to the bridge and interfere with communication between captains and port authorities, and push for routing that avoids areas where inspections are common.”
  • “For Moscow, Wagner functions as a last-line enforcement tool. Their role is to ensure that vessels keep moving even when legal and operational risks become unacceptable by normal commercial standards. Crews bullied, beaten, or threatened by the mercenaries may even quietly signal nearby NATO ships for help, or attempt to sabotage equipment to force an emergency stop in Western waters, with the Adler’s crew possibly sabotaging the engine before they reached a Russian port, and Wagners would come on board. On top of that, owners of leased ships may object to hosting armed Russian soldiers, whose presence massively increases legal liability and operational danger.”
  • The case of Adler matters because it highlights how the shadow fleet is being used not only for oil, but for moving weapons and military-linked cargo. Western officials assess that a substantial portion of Russia’s imported ammunition components, explosives precursors, and sanctioned industrial equipment now arrives by sea, precisely because land routes and air transport are more exposed to interception. If vessels like Adler are increasingly detained or disrupted, Russia does not just lose revenue but risks bottlenecks in the supply chains that feed its weapons production.”
  • NATO hasn’t been backing down in the face of repeated Russian provocations. Putin is playing an increasingly weak hand badly.

    Richard Hammond And Stirling Moss Discuss Their Brain Injuries

    Saturday, December 27th, 2025

    Something from the “old news is so exciting” file, but this BBC piece from 2010 in which then Top Gear presenter Richard Hammond interviews racing driver Stirling Moss about his crash on the track in 1962, and subsequent recovery from his serious brain injury, and how his crash and recovery compares to Hammond’s own in a jet-powered car, is quite fascinating.

    A few interesting takeaways:

  • Moss was in a coma for a month, and one side of his body was paralyzed for some six months.
  • When he recovered, he tried racing on a track again, but decided to retire because all the split-second decisions he had previously made instantaneously he had to consciously think about.
  • Hammond’s own crash in 2006 was at 288mph, and even though he pulled the parachute release, it failed to deploy. He was in a medically-induced coma for two weeks.
  • Hammond did an interview in December just three months after the accident, and appeared on Top Gear in January some four months after, both times proclaiming himself completely recovered, but later Hammond looked back on those segments and said he clearly wasn’t fully recovered. Indeed, he said each year he would look back at the last, and realize that full recovery was a continuing process.
  • Both men said they reacted to what they thought were their impending deaths not with fear, but just wondering what would come next.
  • Bonus the First: Road To Success interviews Top Gear producer Jim Wiseman, who also produced the Hammond-Moss interview:

    Bonus the Second: Road To Success interviews Top Gear writer Richard Porter:

    Bonus the Third: High Performance interviews Top Gear Head Poobah Andy Wilman, who’s promoting his book Mr Wilman’s Motoring Adventure: Top Gear, Grand Tour, Clarkson and Me (which, weirdly, doesn’t seem to be out in the U.S. yet):

    Bonus the Fourth: Part two of that interview:

    Some takeaways from all that:

  • 70% of what Top Gear would become was already sketched out on pieces of paper Jeremy Clarkson brought to the initial meeting with Wilman (an old mate from school) to relaunch Top Gear.
  • They hated the show’s initial Sunday night BBC2 time-slot (which, weirdly, they had to scare off another car show from using), but it turned out to be a blessing in disguise.
  • Because nobody in BBC management was interested in cars, they were allowed essentially free reign to run the show how they wanted, and to experiment to see what worked and what didn’t.
  • They ended up doing things just because they were interested in them, not because they thought anyone else would be, but this eclectic approach ended up unlocking different audience segments that fueled their global growth.
  • They note that the trial-and-error approach was a huge key to their success, and that if they had aimed for global success from the first, they never would have achieved it.
  • One key was that voiceovers should undercut or counterpoint what was going on on-screen, such as “which went well” rather than “James has broken down again.”
  • They realized early on that failure was a lot more interesting than success. There was a road trip with cheap cars where all three had broken down, and their old school director asked if they should just stop shooting, but Clarkson went “No, keep shooting. This is what it’s about now.”
  • Clarkson’s background was in British tabloid journalism, so he likes to craft his segments ahead of time. By contrast, Hammond is a master of on-the-spot riffing and improvisation.
  • Amazon only did Clarkson’s Farm (and Hammond’s Workshop) as a way to lure them back into doing two more seasons of The Grand Tour. When they heard Clarkson wanted to make the show about farming, they were terrified it was going to be boring. Clarkson said “I don’t blame them.” But it turned out brilliantly because all of the figures in the show were such natural characters that they worked better than any casting call could.
  • Merry Christmas: Stellarscope’s “Silent Night”

    Thursday, December 25th, 2025

    As is the now annual tradition, enjoy Stellarscope’s version of “Silent Night”:

    Merry Christmas!

    Japan Halting Photoresist To China?

    Saturday, December 20th, 2025

    I haven’t been able to verify this yet, but according to China Observer, “Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry may have escalated export controls on November 20-21, adding 12 types of core semiconductor materials and related services to its “End User List,” placing about 110 semiconductor-related entities from mainland China under heightened scrutiny. Mainland China is more than 60% reliant on imports for photoresist, with ArF/EUV almost entirely dependent on Japan and the Netherlands.”

    Every time you pattern a semiconductor wafer via a lithography stepper, you first have to deposit photoresist across the entire surface of the wafer. Once you’ve done that, the lithography pattern projected on the wafer hardens, letting some areas get stripped away during etch to create the interconnect patterns for other processes to fill with circuits for the chips. Getting proper photoresist uniformity across the entire wafer has some technical challenges, but it’s something like ten orders of magnitude less complex than EUV lithography. But getting the formula for EUV photoresist exactly right, and then manufacturing it ultrapure in quantity? Yeah, that’s not exactly something you can do in a high school chemistry lab.

  • “The Japanese have directly pulled out of the entire photoresist business in China. 90% of the photo resist we use is imported, with 60% coming from four Japanese companies. Without them, we can’t operate in the high-end sectors. With Japan’s withdrawal of supplies, domestic semiconductor factories are in chaos. Production capacity is declining and yield rates are crashing. Once production lines stop, they lose millions of yen a day.”
  • “The entire semiconductor industry is suffering massive losses.”
  • “A blogger in one video pointed out that few people know that in China’s semiconductor industry, the true bottleneck isn’t the photolithography machine, but a small bottle of liquid costing 50,000 RMB: photoresist.”
  • Section on China having a hissy fit over Japan’s prime minister Sanae Takaichi stating that Japan would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion (touched on in this LinkSwarm) skipped.
  • “Japan [quietly] and decisively retaliated. According to a report by Chinese media outlet East Money, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry may have escalated export controls on November 20th to 21st, adding 12 types of core semiconductor materials and related services to its end user list, placing about 110 semiconductor related entities from mainland China under heightened scrutiny.”
  • “Among the most notable measures are those affecting photoresist and photolithography machine after-sales services regarding photoresist.”
  • “Four Japanese companies (JSR Corporation, Shin-Etsu Chemical Company, Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co., Ltd. and Fujifilm) have suspended deliveries of ArF [Argon-Fluoride laser] immersion and EUV photoresist to mainland Chinese customers while high-end KrF [Krypton-Fluoride laser] products have been significantly delayed.”
  • “Mainland China is more than 60% reliant on imports for photo resist, with ArF UV almost entirely dependent on Japan and the Netherlands.”
  • “Canon and Nikon have informed their Chinese customers that, starting in November, the supply of certain DUV photography machine parts and on-site maintenance services will depend on export licensing conditions. Currently, China has over 1,200 DUV photography machines, 90% of which depend on Canon and Nikon for after sales service.”
  • ” After Canon and Nikon further restrict services, China’s stock of spare parts for photography machines will only last about 3 to 6 months, with photoresist being one of the most critical components.” Well, consumable supply rather than component.
  • “Industry insiders say this means that many Japanese-made photography machines currently in operation will face a supply shortage in the short term and could become scrap metal in the long term.” This is an overstatement, as there’s usually a healthy demand for such machines on the secondary market, either to replace a old machine, or to cannibalize for parts, for research fabs, or for someone trying to put together a trailing-edge fab on the cheap.
  • “Unlike the open ban on 23 types of equipment in 2023, Japan is now adopting a gray customs clearance strategy where rather than announcing an outright embargo. It is using case-by-case approvals, indefinite delays in issuing licenses and cutting off parts and technical support, effectively a supply cut off.”
  • The U.S. has also applied pressure on Japan to implement restrictions.
  • “Photoresist is far more complex than it seems.”
  • “First, the shelf life of high-end photo resist is extremely short, often only 6 months or even less. This means it’s impossible to stockpile and if supply is cut off, production lines will immediately shut down.”
  • “Second, the extreme purity requirements. The formula for photoresist contains dozens of chemical substances with each proportion error not exceeding 1 millionth. The metal impurity limit is as low as 0.001 parts per million, like 1 microgram per kilogram. To put this into perspective, imagine eight Olympic swimming pools full of water. If even a single drop of impurity is mixed in, it must be identified and removed.”
  • “This isn’t just a challenge in terms of the formula. It’s a critical test for the entire chemical purification, filtration, transport, and storage process.”
  • “Third, the ecological [I think they mean ecosystem -LP] barrier. Why are Japanese companies so dominant in the photoresist market? Because over the past 30 years, they have developed their expertise alongside semiconductor giants like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung. Producing photoresist isn’t enough. It must be tested on photography machines worth billions of dollars. The verification cycle takes 2 to 5 years with a high failure rate. Without top semiconductor foundaries to conduct these trial and error processes, your photoresist will never make it out of the laboratory.”
  • “Japan’s dominance in the photoresist market dates back to the 1970s when the country’s economy surged. The government and businesses jointly invested heavily in the semiconductor industry, focusing partially on materials.”
  • “In addition to the high technical barriers and lengthy R&D cycles which take years and require immense investment, Japan holds an overwhelming patent monopoly, 70% of related patents globally. It’s virtually impossible to bypass this barrier.”
  • “Major global chemical companies like the US’s DuPont and Germany’s BASF have less than 10% of the photoresist market share. South Korea has tried but still depends on imports for high-end products. Japanese companies are not only technologically advanced, but their strong industrial chain cooperation in photography machines and silicon wafer production makes it nearly impossible for external competitors to enter.”
  • “According to a 2024 Nikki survey, Japan holds the number one market share in three out of five semiconductor material categories, with photoresist being one of them.”
  • China has tried to develop their photoresist, but when they try them out in fabs, their yield rate crashes. Even if China can steal the right formula, they can’t steal all the intermediary steps necessary to produce the formula.
  • “This issue involves a country’s mastery and accumulation of basic materials and processes, which cannot be solved simply by hiring people to steal technology.”
  • “Japan’s precision manufacturing processes are beyond the reach of China.”
  • For the sake of brevity, I’m skipping over an extensive list of other areas of semiconductor technology where China is heavily dependent on Japan.
  • A whole lot of people freaked out over China’s near-monopoly on rare earth minerals, but China is a lot more dependent on the west for a whole lot of things much higher on the technological food chain.

    Gardner vs. Maryland Heads To Supreme Court

    Thursday, December 18th, 2025

    An interesting Second Amendment case may be making its way to the Supreme Court soon involving reciprocity and post-Bruen state resistance to Second Amendment rights.

  • “The case is Gardner v. Maryland. It is a challenge to Maryland’s concealed carry laws, as it dealt with out of state residents as it was pre-Bruen. It has an amazing fact pattern, one that a plaintiff’s attorney, a petitioning attorney, would love nothing more to have.
  • A lot of people missed it because it was a “pro se petition,” i.e. filed by the person involved rather than a lawyer.
  • “Now it’s sitting on petition to the United States Supreme Court.”
  • “Our good friend Kostas Moros over at the Second Amendment Foundation is geeking out on the video.”
  • “And he also comes to the conclusion, number one, Miss Gardner had gotten completely effed by Maryland law. And number two, you really could not ask for a better fact pattern.”
  • “So he convinces the Second Amendment Foundation to actually do an amicus brief in support of her petition, and also starts using his platforms to publicize this case which then leads to Miss Gardner no longer being a pro se petitioner. She now has counsel. In fact, she has very, very competent counsel representing her.”
  • “But that’s only the beginning of the cool news.”
  • “What once started as a pro se petition by a woman who absolutely got completely hosed by an unconstitutional licensing scheme now has amicus briefs in support of her petition from the following groups.”
  • “There’s an amicus brief from the Second Amendment Foundation, co-authored with the NRA, Second Amendment Law Center, California Rifle and Pistol Association, the Citizens Committee on the Right to Keep and Bear Arms, and the Minnesota Gun Owners Caucus.
  • “But that’s just the beginning of the good news, because guess who else has filed amicus briefs in support of Ava Marie Gardner’s petition? the Cato Institute, the Heller Foundation, 24 attorneys general, spearheaded by the states of Virginia and New Hampshire,” including Texas AG Ken Paxton.
  • “And an amicus brief from Senators Ted Cruz, and all of these other members of the United States Senate.”
  • “Ava Marie Gardner is a lawful and responsible gun owner residing in the state of Virginia. And yes, she has a valid Virginia concealed carry license.”
  • “She’s traveling through Montgomery County, Maryland, specifically on Interstate 270. A road rager intentionally strikes Miss Gardner’s car and forces her off the road. Now, after both cars come to a stop, the other driver gets out of his car and starts rushing towards Miss Gardner’s car.”
  • “She initially screams at him to stop, but that doesn’t seem to work. So, then she displays her firearm and stops the threat. And I want
    you to understand that she merely displayed it, did not discharge it. There was no allegation of her pointing it at it. It was just the display of the firearm.”

  • But then, well, after police arrived, the only person arrested was Miss Gardner.”
  • “For unlawful display of a firearm? Nope. For assault? Nope. No. In fact, the only thing that Miss Gardner was arrested for fell under Maryland Code of Criminal Law Section 4-203A, which says that you cannot have a firearm on your person or in your vehicle unless you are properly licensed by the state of Maryland.”
  • This case goes back and the law that Maryland was using for their concealed carry license at the time made it actually impossible. So that even had Miss Gardner wanted to try to get a Maryland license, she in all likelihood would have never obtained one.”
  • “At the time, in order to get a Maryland concealed carry license,
    one had to one show good and substantial reason. That’s right. they were still operating under the “may issue” standard. So you actually had to prove up a reason as they saw fit for you to actually be able to carry a firearm.”

  • “And then in addition to that too, you had to have 16 hours of instruction which of course was only available in Maryland.”:
  • “And then let us remember that also at the time the state of Maryland offered absolutely no reciprocity whatsoever. So she would have never been able to obtain a Maryland license because she was an out of state resident even if they offered some kind of semblance to an out of state resident.”
  • “So it was basically impossible for Miss Gardner to get a Maryland license.”
  • So Maryland arrested Gardner for not possessing a license that they never would have allowed her to obtain.

    Hopefully the Supreme Court will take up the case and remind deep blue states that Second Amendment rights are not optional.