Posts Tagged ‘Military’

Ukraine And The Gamification Of Combat

Tuesday, January 27th, 2026

The Russo-Ukrainian War continues to accelerate military innovation at a furious rate. The latest innovation isn’t a better drone or newer hardware, but introducing a fundamentally new organizing principle: the gamification of combat.

This article from September lays out the basics.

The tall, bearded officer, code-named Prickly—like all Ukrainian fighters, he uses a call sign to protect his identity and his family from wartime retaliation—is proud as a peacock of what he has done in six months at the helm of his frontline drone unit. In an interview with me, Prickly gave some of the credit to Kyiv’s new “e-point” system, called the Army of Drones Bonus.

He and several of his men explained how the system works in an conversation near a former farmhouse in eastern Ukraine. The yard is littered with military equipment and junk, including the farmer’s much-worn living-room furniture, now arranged around a makeshift fire pit. Several stray cats and a mangy dog wandered around as we talked. “We’ve improved our performance by a factor of 10,” Prickly said. “We know that thanks to the drone points system, which measures how many men we kill and how much equipment we destroy.”

Snip.

The top brass in Kyiv struggle to keep up with this innovation—both the new technology and its use on a highly decentralized battlefield. Drone production is scattered and diverse, with the Ukrainian drone company DroneUA estimating that as many as 700 companies and 500 suppliers are now churning out UAVs of every description. Active-duty units control their own budgets. With drones and other military kit in short supply, most fighters supplement what they get from the government with items they buy themselves—their own clothing and vehicles, for example—crowdsourcing, and donations from charity foundations. Some units say they count on donations for more than two-thirds of their drones, and most modify the devices they receive to suit their unique battlefield circumstances.

Kyiv is working to tame this chaos with organizational reform—a corps-based command system aligned with NATO practices. But the armed forces also strive to take advantage of decentralization, harnessing it to drive innovation and effectiveness on the battlefield. That’s where the point system comes in—allowing fighters to bypass the bureaucracy in Kyiv and buy weapons directly from manufacturers.

Frontline commander Prickly said that drone pilots save video clips of the damage they do—whether destroying machinery or killing Russian soldiers. The unit prepares a daily montage and sends it to the Ministry of Defense, where experts comb over the footage to confirm the unit’s claims and confer points for verified destruction.

The allocation changes regularly, but as of June 2025, Business Insider reported that destroying a tank was worth eight points. A multiple launch rocket system counted for 10. Killing a regular Russian soldier earned 12 points. Wounding a drone pilot was valued at 15 and eliminating him netted 25. In the final step, the payoff, units use the points they’ve earned to purchase equipment—drones, drone jamming devices, ammunition, and other goods—on Brave1 Market, an online shopping platform not unlike Amazon.

For some battalions, including Prickly’s, this represents a sea change. In mid-summer, his unit, part of the 54th Separate Mechanized Brigade, ranked fifth in the nation in total points earned. “It keeps the weapons coming,” he said. “What’s different isn’t just how much you get. It’s also the choice available on the marketplace.” In the past, Kyiv sent what it sent—often the most rudimentary equipment—and units struggled to upgrade it for use on the changing battlefield. “Now we’re in direct contact with producers,” Prickly says. “We order exactly what we need, and it comes ready to use.”

Ukraine’s government-run media platform, United24, also reported that the Ukrainian government reaps data from the point system, enabling it to make better decisions about strategy. Varying the allocation—how many points, say, for a destroyed tank or for killing a drone pilot—gives Kyiv a new tool of command and control. Signals from the field about changing demand—what kinds of drones are selling best on the marketplace—help the armed forces make procurement decisions, and the system is a boon for manufacturers, who can lock in larger, longer-term contracts, enabling them to invest for the future.

Denys Davydov explains in more detail:

  • “The long-awaited reforms of Ukrainian army are being introduced just right now into the system under the new defense minister of Ukraine, Mykhailo Fedorov, who is a very talented young guy and who thinks absolutely openly towards the introduction of the new technologies, drones and every sort of the new features which could help to save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers and help Ukrainian army to win in this war.”
  • Fedorov was previously head of Digital Transformation of Ukraine where he oversaw creation DIIA, a digital app for Ukrainians to interact with a variety of government services. “It is not just useful and saves time for people, but it also helps to eliminate, or reduce it’s better to say, corruption, because you don’t have those bureaucrats, officials. Everything is happening automatically and digitally.”
  • “Fedorov is now ahead of the defense minister of Ukraine. He’s the fourth defense minister who got his position from the start of the war, full-scale war of Russia against Ukraine.”
  • “He applied E-points, [so-called] electronic points which our soldiers obtain if they target Russian soldiers, Russian BMPs, tanks, helicopters, rocket artillery systems. So the higher the price of the destroyed vehicle equipment, the more E-points they obtain.”
  • “They might spend those E-points for new drones or some special equipment that particular soldiers need in a special unit, brigade, regiment, whatsoever.”
  • “It’s similar to the gaming industry. [You] fight against virtual enemies. You earn the points which you spend for the better gear in the game. But it is happening in real life in Ukrainian army.”
  • “And it is very effective because total equality among all of the Ukrainian soldiers is not possible. Some units are more effective than others, and they should obtain better equipment and more drones. For example, Magyar Birds [414th Unmanned Strike Aviation Brigade], one of the most effective units, they have the most of those E-points. So the analogy is the same as with the game. The better the player, the better gear it usually has. But instead of each player fights its own separate enemy, now all of the players, all of the soldiers in Ukraine, all of the regiments, they fight against the common enemy.”
  • “So all of the people are interested for the top players to have this better gear. Like for example, vampire drones, also called Baba [Yaga] drones. It doesn’t mean that the rest of the brigades will obtain absolutely nothing. No, everyone has this chance to be successful to hurt lots of the Russian soldiers in some of the particular direction and earn those E-points.”
  • “For example, each Russian soldier costs [i.e., earns] six points. Each Russian tank costs 40 points. A Russian rocket artillery system, as for example, book 60 points. Before Russian soldier price was two points but then the price rose up to six, well, Russia start to lose way more of the infantry.”
  • He explains how Brave1 works. “You may buy the special gear out there on the shop order. The government itself, the defense ministry, will send it for you. They directly purchase drones from the developers. For now, this system works just for the drones, but it seems like it will be also implemented for artillery. And of course, commanders of brigades, they’re very interested.”
  • “So the system has been taken from video games and it is damn effective. Actually lots of the stuff is been taken from the video games, and the most successful drone operators, they used to be gamers before, they have this muscle memory. Then they used to play lots of the video games for them to get used to the flight controller. It’s way way easier than to teach from the scratch. and you have to put all of those neurons here to the small muscles and fingers. Well, gamers here as a rule are more successful than average guys just taken from the streets.”
  • We’ve already seen the U.S. military adopt some video game technology, such as video game controllers for the prototype M1E3 tank.

    Science fiction has been predicting video gamers making effective warriors for decades, from Orson Scott Card’s Ender’s Game to Michael Bishop’s “The Last Child Into the Mountain.” But I don’t think anyone ever thought up video game reward systems as the basis for advanced weapon distribution.

    Britain had one of the best professional military systems in the world, but by the end of World War II they found an American system focused on logistics and speed surpassing their results on actual battlefields. (Montgomery spent two months preparing to cross the Rhine in the meticulously planned Operation Plunder; Patton did it in one night using small boats without asking permission.) In the modern world, America’s “pull” logistical system runs rings around the Soviet/Russian “push” system. We’ve already covered how Ukraine now has a direct feedback loop between front-line units and MilTech equipment manufacturers.

    Ukraine’s gamification approach represents another potential logistics revolution, with the best units potentially making use of the best gear. But a significant amount of the gamefication approach’s effectiveness may be unique to the static, atomized, defense war of attrition Ukraine is fighting, as the system seems less suitable to, say, big offensive pushes. And there have to be guardrails in place to prevent drone operators from “going Rambo” rather than supporting more important mission objectives.

    Still, the ability of front-line units to interface directly with manufacturers for new gear is an approach I could see the U.S. military undertaking for some units.

    And if Russians are outraged about their soldier’s deaths being used in a video game-like scoring system, 1.) They sure don’t seem to have cared enough about their soldiers being killed in wasteful “meat wave” assaults and endless undermanned probing attempts, and 2.) Maybe they should have avoided launching an illegal war of territorial aggression in the first place…

    Old And Busted: Youxia In, Xi Out. The New Hotness: Xi In, Youxia Out

    Monday, January 26th, 2026

    Remember back in July when the Sinologist tea-leaf readers suggested that Xi Jinping was on his way out after having lost a power struggle with PLA General Zhang Youxia? Well, that speculation was accurate except for the tiny, teensy weensy detail that the subject and predicate were reversed.

    The Chinese military’s top general is being investigated for suspected serious violations of discipline and law the Defense Ministry said Saturday,

    Zhang Youxia, the senior of the two vice chairs of the powerful Central Military Commission, is the latest figure to fall in a long-running purge of military officials.

    Analysts believe the purges are designed both to reform the military and to ensure loyalty to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who also chairs the military commission. They are part of a broader anti-corruption drive that has punished more than 200,000 officials since Xi came to power in 2012.

    Another member of the commission, Liu Zhenli, has also been placed under investigation by China’s ruling Communist Party, a Defense Ministry statement said. Liu is the chief of staff of the commission’s Joint Staff Department. The commission is the top military body in China.

    The statement did not provide any details on the alleged wrongdoing.

    Zhang, who is 75, joined the People’s Liberation Army in 1968 and is a general from its ground forces.

    The Communist Party expelled the other vice chair of the commission, He Weidong, last October and replaced him with commission member Zhang Shengmin.

    Commie leader always fear rebellion in the ranks of their own military more than invasion by foreign powers. That’s why Stalin purged the top ranks of the Soviet military in 1937, a major contributing factor to the Wehrmacht kicking the Red Army’s ass in the opening phases of Operation Barbarossa in 1941. That Xi is consistently purge-happy doesn’t bode well for the CCP’s near-term chances of invading Taiwan.

    There are also reports that Xis targeting “naked officials,” i.e. those high ranking Chinese military leaders with the audacity to let their relatives live abroad. After all, the CCP never knows when having the ability to put Mrs. General’s head in a vise might be necessary as a persuasion tool.

    Oh Getty Images, what would I do without your weirdly appropriate clip art?

    Peter Zeihan has long argued that Xi has purged anyone with ambition or competence from the CCP ranks, leaving no potential successor in on stage. It looks like he was right about that one.

    This is all good news for Taiwan and the free world. The harder Xi purges the military, the less real support he’ll have and the less likely they’ll have competent leadership to push across the Formosa Strait.

    Also, I wonder if all those rumors of Youxia supplanting Xi weren’t a CIA psyop to get play on Xi’s paranoia and push him into purging competent PLA officers…

    LinkSwarm For January 23, 2026

    Friday, January 23rd, 2026

    T-1 until Winter Storm Fern hits Austin. Make sure you’re prepared. The National Weather Service forecast still seems grim:

    The Apple Weather app is finally catching up with the National Weather Service and, holy crap, things are not looking good:

    Austin Weather forecast 1/23/26

    Yeah, it’s going to get above freezing, so the city will run again, but I’ve got to keep my plants inside for a week or more. Any any potential power loss is really gonna suck. Here’s that Austin energy outage map again.

    My own 401K travails and money woes continue. I did receive the money I tried to transfer to my checking account in December. But I had only split it up to get half of it into 2025 for tax purposes. I was also going to have to transfer more more into my bank account this month to cover my property taxes. They assured me would only take a day to transfer funds after my IRA got set up. Surprise! It might be a day for most people, but because my phone doesn’t receive text messages, I had to request they send me a check, which is going to take 15 days. (Funny how they seem to be able to transfer money in instantaneously, but you have to jump through hoops to get your own money in 2+ weeks.) Yesterday, I had to sell some silver rounds to cover the last bit of property taxes and living expenses for two weeks (including a vet appointment for my two dogs). Fortunately, silver is at at an all-time high. I sold mine when it was just under $100 an ounce, and now it’s over $103.

    Oh, yeah, some other stuff happened this week: More Minnesota fraud, more California fraud, Don Lemon joins the KKK (as a subject of federal scrutiny), more commie ties for left wing agitators, more of Russia’s shadow fleet comes a cropper, and William Shatner eats cereal.

    It’s the Friday LinkSwarm!

  • Just like we already knew: “California: Newsom’s ‘National Model’ for Homeless Wracked by Fraud.”

    Gov. Gavin Newsom has made reducing the homelessness crisis in California a top priority, saying the scale of the state’s efforts is “unprecedented” and calling for the continued expansion of his signature effort – Project Homekey – that has already cost $3.75 billion.

    But in a state with more than 181,000 homeless individuals, or about one-third of the U.S. total, Homekey has been marred by failures and scandals, including a lack of government oversight and accountability as well as a federal investigation into allegations of fraud in Los Angeles.

    Lack of government oversight isn’t a bug for Governor Hairgel, it’s a feature.

    Newsom, who appears to be preparing for a presidential bid in 2028, could make Homekey, which he calls a “national model,” a talking point in his campaign. The state claims the program has created almost 16,000 permanent housing units that will serve over 175,000 people. But since the state doesn’t track outcomes – whether people placed in housing saw their lives improve or if they returned to the streets – the program’s effectiveness is unclear, according to a critical 2024 state auditor’s report.

    “[Our budget] is bloated with homeless spending, a bottomless pit and taxpayer boondoggle that doubles down on failure year after year,” the Republican-turned-Democrat Los Angeles Councilwoman Traci Park said at a meeting in May. “Hundreds of millions of dollars on bridge homes and Homekeys and interim housing sites, and no one can even tell us which ones are operational.”

    What is clear is that homelessness in California has skyrocketed in the five years Homekey has been in place, growing by more than 20%, according to the Public Policy Institute of California. That’s an increase of some 36,000 people between 2019 and 2024.

    Homekey has been touted by officials as a more cost-effective way to house the homeless. By hiring developers to convert excess motel and hotel rooms and other existing structures into permanent housing, the costs are two to three times lower than building new units, according to the auditor’s report.

    But with huge contracts available to developers and very little oversight of their activities, some of that cost savings was lost to fraud, according to federal prosecutors. First Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli for the Central District of California launched a fraud and corruption task force to find out where the money went, and in October filed criminal charges involving two developers who allegedly defrauded the system.

    My guess is that not a single leftwing activist in California will be indicted by the state government for their own role in the fraud…

  • “Minnesota Democrats Are Creating A Nullification Crisis Over Immigration.”

    The videos coming out of Minneapolis, of Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers apprehending illegal immigrants in the streets while having to fight off aggressive and sometimes violent anti-ICE activists, are the predictable result of a Democrat strategy that amounts to nullification.

    I mean nullification in the historical sense, like the Nullification Crisis of 1832 when South Carolina declared federal tariffs to be null and void within the boundaries of the state, and President Andrew Jackson threatened to send in the U.S. Army to enforce federal law.

    What the Democrats of South Carolina did back then is essentially what the Democrats of Minneapolis are doing today, fomenting a 21st century nullification crisis by making it nearly impossible to enforce federal immigration law in the territory under their jurisdiction. Trump, who has ordered 1,500 active duty troops stationed in Alaska to prepare for a possible deployment to Minnesota, is well within his rights (and within historical precedent) to respond in the same vein as Jackson did to what amounts to a nullification crisis.

    Indeed, the whole point of so-called sanctuary laws is to make it difficult or impossible to enforce federal immigration laws — to nullify them. Sanctuary policies like the ones operative in Minneapolis (and many other Democrat-controlled cities) prohibit state and local law enforcement from working with federal immigration authorities.

    Under normal circumstances, when an illegal immigrant commits a crime the local authorities notify federal immigration officials before the offender is released, so that ICE can take custody and begin the process of deportation. The handover occurs between law enforcement agencies in a controlled, orderly, safe manner.

    But in places where Democrat lawmakers have created sanctuary jurisdictions, local law enforcement is barred from cooperating with federal immigration enforcement in this way. Instead of handing over illegal immigrants to ICE, the police simply release them. That means ICE agents have to go out into the community, into neighborhoods and businesses, to track down and arrest illegal immigrant criminals wherever they might be.

    This is obviously a much more volatile and dangerous way to enforce federal immigration law. And in Minneapolis, it’s even more volatile and dangerous thanks to anti-ICE activists and vigilante mobs attempting to disrupt, impede, and in some cases attack ICE agents. Indeed, it’s a recipe for violent clashes between ICE and anti-ICE mobs. A cynic might say that’s the entire point, to make federal immigration enforcement as chaotic and tense as possible in hopes of exactly the kind of confrontations that led to the death of Renee Good, the woman who was fatally shot earlier this month when she tried to ram an ICE agent with her vehicle.

    The goal of fomenting such mayhem is straightforward: to thwart the enforcement of federal immigration law. Keep in mind, ICE is not doing anything beyond the scope of federal law in Minneapolis. It is not exercising any new or novel powers not authorized under federal statute. As Gregory Bovino, the Border Patrol commander in charge in Minneapolis said at a press conference this week, the operations and tactics of Border Patrol and ICE agents in the city are “born out of necessity” but are nevertheless “legal, ethical, and moral.”

    “Our operations are lawful. They’re targeted. They’re focused on individuals who pose a serious threat to this community. They are not random and they are not political,” he said. The “necessity” Bovino refers to is that which has arisen as a direct result of Democrat sanctuary policies. Ordinarily, we wouldn’t see the very public, visible ICE operations now underway in Minneapolis and other sanctuary cities simply because criminal illegal aliens would be transferred to federal custody by local law enforcement.

    But that’s not happening because Democrats don’t like federal immigration laws. Since they don’t have the political power to change them, they have decided, like Democrats in South Carolina in the 1830s, simply to declare them null and void in their territory.

    I would suggest Minnesota Democrats should reconsider before Trump decides to do to Minneapolis what Sherman did to Savannah in 1864, but knowing Minneapolis, all he probably needs to do is hand out gasoline and matches to the #BlackLivesMatter/Somali set and let them burn it down themselves…

  • The usual villains are bankrolling the Minnesota anarchy.

    A collection of far-left activist groups — including the Democratic Socialists of America, major labor unions, explicitly Communist groups, and a CCP-linked protest network — have all organized a strike scheduled for Friday which aims to “shut down” schools and businesses statewide in Minnesota in an effort to push ICE out.

    The planned shutdown was announced early last week — “ICE Out of MN: Day of Truth and Freedom” — include plans for a large-scale march in Minneapolis and a day of “no work, no school, no shopping.”

    The radical Party for Socialism and Liberation (PSL), the left-wing BreakThrough News media outlet, and the Manhattan-based Marxist revolutionary People’s Forum are all involved in either promoting or organizing the Minnesota shutdown effort. Just the News previously reported on how these and other radical activist groups have leadership links or financial ties to a funding network backed by wealthy businessman and self-avowed communist Neville Singham.

    The GOP-led House Oversight Committee voted this month to subpoena Singham for information about this sprawling activist network. The Freedom Road Socialist Organization, the Revolutionary Communists of America, and the Twin Cities chapter of the Communist Party USA — all avowedly Marxist groups — are also listed as co-sponsors of the Friday protest.

    The DSA — which helped propel Zohran Mamdani to Gracie Mansion in NYC — including the national organization and the local Minnesota chapter — are listed as backing the anti-ICE effort scheduled for Friday.

    Major labor unions such as the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) are listed as co-hosts of the shutdown effort, while the United Auto Workers (UAW) also endorsed the strike.

  • “Don Lemon Faces KKK Act Charges On MLK Holiday.”

    Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon told conservative podcaster Benny Johnson that former CNN host Don Lemon has been put “on notice” by the Justice Department and could face charges under federal civil-rights laws, including the Ku Klux Klan Act, for his role in storming a church service in Minnesota. Lemon allegedly joined a far-left mob that was on the hunt for a pro-ICE pastor at a St. Paul church.

    “The Klan Act is one of the most important federal civil rights statutes. Its a law that makes it illegal to terrorize and violate the civil rights of citizens. Whenever people conspire to do this, the Klan Act can be used,” Dhillon told Johnson.

    Dhillon continued, “Everyone in the protest community needs to know that the fullest force of the federal government is going to come down and prevent this from happening and put people away for a long time.”

    “There is zero tolerance for this kind of illegal behavior and we will not stand for it,” she emphasized.

    Johnson wrote on X, “DOJ confirms Don Lemon has zero ‘journalism’ protections against FACE Act violations. Lemon was fully aware of the violations and may face KKK Act conspiracy charges.”

    Unfortunately a Minnesota judge is currently blocking the charges.

  • But others got indicted. “FBI Arrests Left-Wing Activist Who Led Mob of Protesters into Minnesota Church.”

    Federal authorities have arrested the woman who led an anti-ICE mob into a Minnesota church last week.

    Nekima Levy Armstrong is facing charges related to violating the FACE Act, which prohibits interfering with the exercise of religion at a place of worship.

    Minutes ago at my direction, HSI and FBI agents executed an arrest in Minnesota. So far, we have arrested Nekima Levy Armstrong, who allegedly played a key role in organizing the coordinated attack on Cities Church in St. Paul, Minnesota,” Attorney General Pam Bondi wrote in a post on X.

    “We will share more updates as they become available. Listen loud and clear: WE DO NOT TOLERATE ATTACKS ON PLACES OF WORSHIP,” she added.

    Armstrong led a group into the Cities Church in St. Paul on Sunday, believing that one of the church’s pastors works for Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Dozens of demonstrators interrupted the service shouting, “ICE out” and “Justice for Renee Good.”

    Armstrong is a civil rights lawyer and “scholar-activist,” according to her website. She previously played a key role in organizing boycotts against Target over its decision to walk back its diversity, equity, and inclusion programs, according to Fox News.

  • “Noem announces 10K illegal immigrant arrests in Minnesota.”

    Homeland Security Secretary Krisit Noem announced on Monday that immigration officers have arrested more than 10,000 illegal immigrants in Minnesota.

    “PEACE AND PUBLIC SAFETY IN MINNEAPOLIS!” Noem exclaimed in a post to X. “We have arrested over 10,000 criminal illegal aliens who were killing Americans, hurting children and reigning terror in Minneapolis because Tim Walz and Jacob Frey refuse to protect their own people and instead protect criminals.”

    The figure includes about 3,000 “criminal illegal aliens” arrested by federal authorities in just the last six weeks, the secretary said.

    Snip.

    “There is MASSIVE Fraud in Minneapolis, at least $19 billion and that’s just the tip of iceberg,” Noem asserted in the same post. “Our Homeland Security Investigators are on the ground in Minneapolis conducting wide scale investigations to get justice for the American people who have been robbed blind.”

    Indeed.

  • “Abbott Offers State Assistance to HUD for Fraud Identification Program. HUD Secretary Turner identified $5 billion in potentially erroneous payments.”

    Gov. Greg Abbott has volunteered Texas assistance to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) in identifying fraud in federal housing programs after the agency identified at least $5 billion in potentially erroneous payments last year.

    According to a letter sent to HUD Secretary Scott Turner on Monday, Abbott offered state participation in a pilot fraud identification program through the Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs (TDHCA).

    “We will gladly work with you to develop fraud-prevention measures that ensure federal taxpayer funds, like those in the rental-based assistance programs, are not taken advantage of by bad actors,” wrote Abbott.

    Turner, a former Texas state representative who was appointed by President Donald Trump to head HUD last year, published a financial analysis of the agency that warned of fraud and a lack of internal controls.

    Using AI, HUD reported finding more than 30,000 deceased persons either actively enrolled in a rental assistance program or who had received assistance after they died.

    Turner’s financial report also warned that his staff had identified examples of non-compliance with standards of internal controls under the Biden administration.

    “The reviews determined that under the prior Administration, HUD experienced a deterioration in financial controls and governance and identified a material weakness affecting internal controls and financial governance across multiple program offices.”

    Multiple federal agencies launched or extended investigations in Minnesota after new revelations of widespread fraud in the state last month. Last week, Abbott directed the Texas Workforce Commission and the Health and Human Services Commission to investigate potential childcare fraud in Texas.

  • “Latin Kings gang member accused of vandalizing FBI vehicle, stealing government property in Minneapolis.”

    A member of the violent Latin Kings gang was arrested after allegedly stealing government property from an FBI vehicle vandalized during unrest in Minneapolis Wednesday night, federal authorities said.

    Fox News confirmed that Raul Gutierrez, 33, was arrested Thursday in a joint operation involving the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF).

    The FBI said multiple government vehicles were vandalized and broken into Wednesday night in Minneapolis while agents were responding to a reported assault on a federal officer, adding that federal property was stolen from inside the vehicles.

    “One individual who allegedly stole federal government property out of an FBI vehicle in Minneapolis last night has been arrested,” FBI Director Kash Patel wrote on X, adding that the suspect was a member of the Latin Kings gang with a violent criminal history. “FBI personnel are continuing to pursue other subjects involved. There will be more arrests.”

    Is their any doubt the left will treat this gang banger scumbag as a hero?

  • “Feds: California Owes $1B for Covering Illegal Aliens With Medicaid Dollars.”

    A few weeks ago, I noted that California was losing over $160 million due to improper management of its commercial driver’s license program.

    And well, Governor Gavin Newsom asserted his current budget would only have a $2 billion deficit, the state’s shortfall is actually estimated to be over $17 billion according to the Legislative Analyst’s Office.

    The budget reports a $2.9 billion deficit, described as a “modest shortfall” by Department of Finance staff. This estimate differs markedly from the Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) projection of a $17.6 billion deficit—a gap of $14.7 billion. According to department staff, the governor’s proposal incorporates $31.5 billion in additional revenues not included in the LAO forecast and excludes the risk of a stock market downturn that the LAO elected to factor into its analysis. Overall, the state budget totals $348.9 billion, including $248.3 billion in General Fund expenditures and $23 billion in total reserves.

    Now, the gap may even widen.

    California is facing federal demands to repay more than $1 billion in Medicaid funds that Dr. Mehmet Oz, the head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), says were improperly used for health care for illegal aliens.

    The Trump administration is planning to claw back over $1 billion in federal Medicaid dollars it says are being spent by blue states on healthcare for illegal immigrants, including some with violent criminal records for murder and rape.

    A preliminary audit by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services found that, over the last few years, mostly during 2024 and 2025, California; Washington, D.C.; Illinois; Washington; Colorado; and Oregon improperly spent a combined $1,351,204,127 in federal Medicaid funds to help pay for healthcare for illegal immigrants.

    While federal Medicaid dollars are supposed to be prohibited broadly from being used to cover healthcare for illegal immigrants, they can be used by states for emergency treatment regardless of a patient’s citizenship or immigration status.

    While 5 other states were also investigated for illegal alien-oriented Medicaid abuses, California was by far the most egregious.

  • Virginia’s newly-seated Democrats have wasted no time in immediately throwing off the disguise of moderation to follow California and Minnesota’s blueprint for radical voting fraud, lining their pockets with graft and encouraging illegal aliens.

    Virginians asked for it, and if the flurry of bills introduced in the 72 hours since Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s inauguration pass — and with a Democratic supermajority, they likely will — residents of the Old Dominion are going to get it “good and hard.” If enacted, these proposals would raise taxes substantially, shorten sentences for violent criminals, and erode election integrity statewide.

    Virginia voters delivered Spanberger a landslide victory in November over her Republican opponent, then–Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. Despite presenting herself as a moderate during the campaign, Spanberger’s congressional voting record — nearly 100% aligned with the Democrats’ progressive agenda — suggested her governance would be anything but.

    Let’s start with the tax increases: HB979 would create two new tax brackets. Currently, Virginians are taxed at 5.75% for all income over $17,000. If this bill passes, residents earning between $600,000 and $1 million will be taxed at 8%, and those earning over $1 million will pay 10%.

    Before anyone argues that these taxpayers can well afford it, remember that this group includes farmers, small businesses, and sole proprietors — many of whom are about to be “crushed” by the impact.

    The advocacy group Americans for Tax Reform sounded the alarm on the proposed new taxes in a piece titled Democrats Pounce On Virginia Taxpayers. ATF noted, “Under unified Democrat control, Virginia is poised to become a tax-hiking outlier in a region full of states that are phasing out their income taxes.”

    The article highlights some of the most shocking tax proposals now being advanced by state Democrats.

    • HB 378 – Imposes a 3.8% net investment income tax on individuals, trusts, and estates beginning in taxable year 2027. If enacted, HB 378 would raise VA’s top marginal income tax rate on portfolio and passive income to 9.55%.
    • HB 900 – Authorizes sales tax hikes in various transportation districts, imposes a new tax on each and every retail delivery in Northern Virginia (Amazon, Uber Eats, FedEx, UPS, etc.), similar to the one imposed in Minnesota by Gov. Tim Walz (D).
    • HB 919 – Imposes a firearm and ammunition tax equal to 11% percent of the gross receipts from the retail sale of any firearm or ammunition by a dealer in firearms, firearms manufacturer, or ammunition vendor, as such terms are defined in the bill.
    • HB 978 – Extends the retail sales and use tax to dry cleaning, landscaping, and other previously exempt services.

    Democrats now control the legislature and Governor’s office in Virginia.

    Here are just a few of the bills they’ve introduced

    – New 4.3% sales tax on Uber Eats, Amazon, etc deliveries.
    – New sales tax on admissions to a wide variety of businesses.
    – Create two new higher tax…

    — Greg Price (@greg_price11) January 19, 2026

    NEW retail and sales taxes coming to Virginia introduced by Virginia Democrats in a single bill:

    “Levies the retail sales and use tax on the following services: admissions; charges for recreation, fitness, or sports facilities; nonmedical personal services or counseling; dry… pic.twitter.com/ki96Ngpj6T

    — NOVA Campaigns (@NoVA_Campaigns) January 19, 2026

    This legislative blitz has something for everyone — including convicted criminals in the state.

    HB863 would “eliminate mandatory minimum sentencing for rape, manslaughter, assaulting a law enforcement officer, possession and distribution of child pornography, and all repeat violent felonies.”

    Funny how Democrats are now objectively and reflexively pro-rape…

  • How Trump Won Davos.

    Here at Davos, I’ve heard numerous versions of this sentiment: “We Europeans/Canadians stood up to Trump and forced him to retreat. This is a major victory for the rules-based international order.”

    This is a very wrong take. The reality is that Trump won Davos, hands down. And not only did he win it; he owned it. I have never before seen a single individual so completely dominate this vast bazaar of the powerful, the wealthy, the famous, and the self-important.

    Snip.

    Davos Man—I should say Davos Person—worries a lot more about such things than he—they—used to. The latest edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report, which is based on surveys of business executives and academics, ranks “geoeconomic confrontation” and “state-based armed conflict” as the No. 1 and No. 2 risks most “likely to present a material crisis on a global scale in 2026.” On a two-year time horizon, geoeconomic confrontation remains top of the list. Asked to characterize “the global political environment for cooperation on risks in the next decade,” 68 percent of respondents picked a “multipolar or fragmented order in which middle and great powers contest, set, and enforce regional rules and norms.”

    All of this is just a series of Davosy euphemisms for the one big risk that Davos Person fears above all others: Donald Trump. This is funny when you consider last year’s mood, which—in the wake of Trump’s reelection—was very bullish about the United States under Trump 2.0. “Almost everyone at Davos is long U.S., short EU,” I wrote in these pages this time last year. “The new Davos consensus is that Europe cannot get its economic act together and never will, whereas America is rocking and rolling, and if you don’t own the big U.S. tech stocks, then the FOMO may kill you.”

    My long-standing contrarian rule is that the Davos consensus is always wrong. In last year’s case, I added, Davos Person should be very careful what they wished for. Sure enough, in 2025 European stocks outperformed U.S. stocks. And, of course, Trump 2.0 has turned out to be every good European’s worst nightmare.

    In the run-up to Davos 2026, Trump did his utmost to wind up Europe’s elite, not to mention Canada’s. On social media and in interviews, he insisted that he was determined to get Greenland for the United States. “Greenland has to be acquired,” he wrote on the eve of his arrival in Switzerland. “Denmark and its European allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING.” He did not rule out military action. He threatened to impose new 10 percent tariffs on all countries that resisted. And he posted memes of maps of Denmark (and Canada) cloaked in the Stars and Stripes and an AI-generated image of himself planting an American flag on “Greenland—U.S. Territory Est. 2026.”

    To stoke up the crowd ahead of the president’s arrival, Trump’s cabinet members chimed in. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s anti-European trash-talking so enraged the president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, that she stormed out of a Davos dinner. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent drolly wondered if European leaders might unleash their “most forceful weapon,” the “dreaded European working group.”

    Snip.

    This was vintage Trump, part real-estate pitch, part reality TV. “All we’re asking for is to get Greenland,” he riffed, “including right, title, and ownership, because you need the ownership to defend it. You can’t defend it on a lease. Legally, it’s not defensible that way, totally. And number two, psychologically, who the hell wants to defend a license agreement or a lease[?]”

    As for the haters, “Canada lives because of the United States,” Trump declared. “Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements.” And: “Here’s the story, Emmanuel. The answer is you’re going to do it. You’re going to do it fast. And if you don’t, I’m putting a 25 percent tariff on everything that you sell into the United States. And a 100 percent tariff on your wines and champagnes.”

    Except that, almost as an aside, Trump then called the whole Greenland thing off. “We never ask for anything [from NATO],” he rambled, “and we never got anything. We probably won’t get anything unless I decide to use excessive strength and force where we would be, frankly, unstoppable. But I won’t do that. Okay? Now everyone’s saying, ‘Oh good.’ That’s probably the biggest statement I made because people thought I would use force. I don’t have to use force. I don’t want to use force. I won’t use force.”

    Later that evening, following a “very productive meeting” with NATO secretary general Mark Rutte, Trump announced on Truth Social that he would not impose the additional tariffs on European countries he had threatened. He and Rutte had “formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region.”

    Snip.

    The problem with all of this is the premise that Trump ever seriously meant to annex Greenland or to impose new tariffs on the Europeans. Why would he when a) the United States already enjoys (under a 1951 treaty with Denmark and a 2004 agreement with Greenland) all the military access to the frigid island it could every possibly need, while the Danes pay for the heavily subsidized inhabitants of the island; and b) Trump means what he says on Truth Social only about half the time, according to The Wall Street Journal’s recent analysis of 2,700 substantive Truth posts. I’ll say it again: Half the time he’s bluffing. And it was the same when he was on Twitter in series one.

    Snip.

    Ten years ago, Europeans made the mistake of taking Trump neither seriously nor literally. Now they make the opposite mistake of treating him both seriously and literally. But, as Saleno Zito explained nearly 10 years ago, the correct approach is to take him seriously but not literally. The fact that Trump carries out only around half the threats he makes on social media is a feature, not a bug—and it’s certainly not a sign of weakness. It is a deliberate tactic designed to leave counterparties uncertain. On this occasion, Trump was bluffing, and the administration never had the remotest intention of imposing new tariffs on Europe, much less taking military action to annex Greenland.

    So Trump asked for the moon, threatened to disastrous sanctions on his negotiating counterparts, and then settled for what he actually wanted all along.

    (Hat tip: Instapundit.)

  • Cue the tiny violins: “Eric Swalwell Could Be Ineligible for Governor or Face Jail Time.”

    Eric Swalwell’s political ambitions just hit a major snag. Swalwell, most famous for public flatulence and bedding a Chinese spy, wants to be the next governor of California, but he is now the target of a court challenge that could blow his entire gubernatorial campaign out of the water before it even gets started.

    The accusation? He doesn’t actually live in the state he wants to govern.

    Conservative activist and filmmaker Joel Gilbert dropped a legal bomb on January 8, filing a petition in Sacramento Superior Court arguing that Swalwell is constitutionally barred from seeking the governor’s office.

    Gilbert has a strong case.

    California’s constitution requires gubernatorial candidates to live in the state for five years before the election. Gilbert says Swalwell has been living in Washington, D.C., not California, which makes him legally ineligible to run for office.

    “Swalwell is ineligible to run for governor of California because the California constitution requires that a candidate live in the state for five years before an election,” Gilbert told PJ Media. “Swalwall has no home address in California; that’s why he committed perjury on his candidate statement form 501 by providing his attorney’s office for his home address. Swalwell has a sworn Deed of Trust on his Washington, D.C. home where he declared that location as his primary residence.”

    The complaint gets more interesting from there.

    Public records searches allegedly show that Swalwell has no ownership or lease of any California property — his congressional financial disclosures from 2011 through 2024 back this up, listing zero California real estate holdings. When Swalwell filed his campaign paperwork on December 4, he listed an address on Capitol Mall in Sacramento. The problem is that the address isn’t a residence; it’s the office of his Sacramento lawyer, Greenberg Traurig, located in a high-rise.

    Swalwell owns a $1.2 million, six-bedroom home in northeast Washington, D.C., where he lives with his wife, Brittany Watts, and their three kids. Mortgage documents from April 2022 list that D.C. property as his “principal residence.”

    There are really only two possibilities here, according to Gilbert: Swalwell either committed mortgage fraud — a serious crime that could result in prison time — or he’s ineligible to run for governor.

    (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)

  • “Teachers Unions Funneling Millions To Soros-Linked Groups, Far-Left Agendas.” Because of course they are.

    New Labor Department filings reveal the National Education Association (NEA), the nation’s largest teachers’ union, has been channeling millions in taxpayer dollars to far-left political outfits, including Soros-backed networks and shadowy activist groups.

    Instead of bolstering education, these funds are propping up anti-American causes, from anti-Israel protests to rigging electoral maps.

    The bombshell underscores the deep rot in union leadership, where public money meant for schools is weaponized against conservative values and national security.

    The filings, obtained by Fox News Digital, paint a damning picture of misdirected priorities. “The NEA’s last fiscal year report showed it sent $300,000 to the 1630 Fund, the liberal dark money group Fox News has been reporting on extensively, and in most cases exclusively — Tens of thousands of dollars to the (George Soros’) Tides Foundation Network,” according to the report.

    These aren’t voluntary donations from union members’ pockets—these are taxpayer dollars funneled through the system. The Tides Foundation has ties to anti-Israel activism, while the Sixteen Thirty Fund operates as a hub for progressive dark money, influencing elections without transparency.

    The NEA didn’t stop there, the report notes, adding it “was also involved in several state issues. It backed a campaign to end standardized testing in Massachusetts and fight gerrymandering in Ohio, to the tune of half a million dollars for each of those and it sent hundreds of thousands of additional money to groups committed to racial and education justice movements.”

    One of the biggest payouts was a whopping $3.5 million to Education International, a global teachers’ federation where NEA President Becky Pringle serves as vice president. Critics call it a cozy self-dealing arrangement, with American tax dollars flowing offshore to international agendas.

  • “The FBI just served a whole bunch of grand jury subpoenas to Minnesota politicians.”

    The subpoenas went to the offices of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Attorney General Keith Ellison and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, according the outlets, including Reuters, the New York Times and Fox News, which cited anonymous sources.

    The subpoenas come days after the Department of Justice announced it was launching an investigation into Walz and Frey in connection with a suspected conspiracy to impede federal immigration enforcement in the state.

    I am hoping there are also subpoenas in the works for several years of their bank records, to see how much they participated in the Somali fraud…

  • “And Suddenly, About 100 Minneapolis Cops Disappeared.”

    Over the past several days, it appears that Minneapolis police officers have quietly kind of quit in another way.

    From Alpha News:

    Around 100 Minneapolis police officers could soon be off duty for weeks to months from an already critically understaffed police department, and just as the city faces a serious public safety crisis with protesters inciting confrontations with the surge of federal agents working in the city.

    Multiple sources confided to both Alpha News senior reporter Liz Collin and to Crime Watch Minneapolis that 60 to 100 officers from the Minneapolis Police Department have applied or plan to apply for the state’s new paid leave program. The Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML) program was signed into law by Gov. Tim Walz during the 2023 DFL trifecta and went into effect on the first of this year.

    Now there’s a shortage of police.

    (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)

  • “Ukrainian Drones Hit Taman Port: FOUR Oil Tanks Reported Burning.”
  • They also hit an oil depot in Penza, some 600+ km from the Ukraine border.
  • Russian Ammo Depot Destroyed in Debaltseve, Donetsk: HUGE Cookoff.”

  • “France Boards Russian Shadow Fleet Tanker “Grinch‘!”
  • Italy also boarded a Russian shadow fleet tanker carrying 30 tones of ferrous metal.
  • Another Russian shadow fleet tanker, the Progress, appears to be adrift in the Mediterranean, possibly a victim of Ukrainian drones.
  • This won’t end well: “Japanese Yields Soar To All Time High After PM Takaichi Calls Snap Election Seeking More Spending, Less Taxes.” Doubling down, yet again, on Abenomics, won’t solve Japan’s continuing problems.
  • “New York Ends Crusade to Make Catholic Nuns Pay for Abortions.”

    New York has finally ended its nearly decade-long campaign to force Catholic nuns and other religious ministries to fund abortions.

    The Becket Fund for Religious Liberty announced on Tuesday that New York agreed to enter into a settlement with their clients after a lengthy court battle over a state abortion mandate that went to the Supreme Court twice. Plaintiffs in the case, Roman Catholic Diocese v. Harris, included a group of Catholic and Anglican nuns, Catholic dioceses, Christian churches, and faith-based social ministries.

    “For nearly a decade, New York bureaucrats tried to strong-arm nuns into paying for abortions because they serve all those in need,” said Lori Windham, senior counsel at Becket and an attorney for the religious groups. “At long last, the state has given up its disgraceful campaign. This victory confirms that the government cannot punish religious ministries for living out their faith by serving everyone.”

  • “NY Attorney General Criminalizes Opposing Islamic Terrorism. Attorney General Letita James shuts down Jewish group for fighting back.”

    In a press release, AG James, who had previously worked to shut down the NRA because she disagreed with its politics, announced that she had closed down Betar, a pro-Israel group , for appearing at synagogues to defend them from Muslim mobs, for claiming that “that all devout Muslims ‘hate America’, and for making derogatory remarks about Islam and Gaza.

    Did Howard University not cover the unconstitutionality of viewpoint discrimination back when James was obtaining her law degree there? (Hat tip: Director Blue.)

  • Nick Shirley sat down with YouTuber Andrew Callaghan, and caught Callaghan deceptively editing the interview just like the MSM does.
  • Fastest Koenigsegg vs. Fastest Bugatti.
  • Microslop 365. “Microsoft has invested tens to hundreds of billions of dollars into AI, okay? And so AI is not allowed to be the problem. And so it has to be you.”
  • William Shatner eats a bowl of cereal.
  • “Dems Warn ICE Crackdowns Will Make Illegal Immigrants Afraid To Vote.”
  • “Exhausted White Liberal Women Clock In For Another Long Day Protecting Migrant Sex Offenders.”
  • “Don Lemon Immediately Bursts Into Flames Upon Entering Church.”
  • “Minnesota Arrests Churchgoers For Interrupting Protest.”
  • “Trump To Convert Entire City Of Minneapolis Into Insane Asylum.”
  • “Denmark Protects Greenland By Securing It In Giant Cookie Tin.”
  • Redemption song:

    (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)

  • I’m still between jobs. Feel free to hit the tip jar if you’re so inclined.





    “Tanks? In My Vietnam War? It’s More Likely Than You Think.”

    Saturday, January 17th, 2026

    Tanks rarely feature in Hollywood movies about the Vietnam War (Full Metal Jacket is the only exception that comes to mind), so you might be forgiven for thinking they didn’t play any role in the conflict. In fact, several armored vehicles were used by American and AVRN forces quite effectively there, as covered in this video from the UK Tank Museum:

    The main armored vehicles used were:

  • The M48 Patton Tank:

    It was the US Marine Corps that insisted on bringing them to Vietnam. “Deep ditches and steep grades are no problem for the Patton 48.” The M48 A3 had 110mm of frontal armor, but probably more important for its service in Vietnam was the construction. It’s cast, not welded. And this proved invaluable. The communist forces regularly used improvised anti-tank mines, often made from unexploded US ordinance, and the curved underside of the M48 was effective at deflecting the blast of such devices.

    On top of that, the M48’s 90mm main gun, plus 50 cal and M60 secondary armament could lay down a withering field of fire, either in support of infantry in the open or in perimeter defense. It didn’t take the US Marine Corps long to prove the M48’s worth. In Operation Starlight in August 1965, the Marines destroyed the first Vietcong regiment on the Vatang Peninsula. A report on the action stated that tanks were the difference between expected heavy casualties and the light casualties we actually took.

    By 1966, operations like Hastings and Prairie proved that tanks and marines working in close cooperation was the best way to destroy VC strong points and slash enemy supply routes in wide aggressive sweeps. Despite some continuing reluctance from MACV [Military Assistance Command, Vietnam], tanks were proving far more useful than previously thought.

    Another major challenge in Vietnam was ambush. Communist forces would create killing zones up to a kilometer long stretching along key highways. They planted improvised mines to disable lead vehicles and anti-personnel mines and punji spikes at the side of the road to take out infantry dismounting from trapped and stationary vehicles. Once again, tanks proved themselves a huge asset in combating the problem. The M48s would place themselves front and rear of the convoy. The tanks at the rear would have their turrets facing after. If the convoy was attacked, the tanks could often ride through any initial blast or push damaged vehicles off the road, allowing the convoy to keep moving. The armor would then cloverleaf, swinging out from front and rear to envelop the enemy. If all went to plan, they could quickly turn the tables on the attackers as their firepower came into play.

    Another counter ambush tactic was the thunderun. A pair of Pattons would take up position either side of the road with one track on the road surface and the other on the verge. They would then race ahead of the column, hosing down likely ambush sites. If they hit a mine, it seldom did more than throw a road wheel. And if they made it through unscathed, the route was considered safe for soft skin vehicles to follow.

    As troop numbers grew, the army too began to deploy M48s in a fire support role. Either indirect fire, a substitute for artillery, or in a direct fire role using HE against enemy bunkers. In perimeter defense, tanks would be dug in behind an earth or sandbag berm, flanked by infantry and foxholes, and with a belt of overlapping trip flares, barbed wire, and claymore mines in front. From these defensive cocoons, the tanks could stand firm against human wave attacks, often with the help of one of the most controversial tank munitions ever devised: The beehive round.

    The 90mm beehive or M580 AP anti-personal tracer to give it its full title was brutal. It contained 4,200 1/2 in., 5g razor sharp steel flechettes along with a time fuse and bursting charge. The crew would set the detonation range anywhere from 0 to 4,300 m. When the charge went off, the cloud of flechettes formed a 300 m long cone, a deadly swarm carving through jungle cover, wire imp placements, and attacking infantry with devastating effect. The nickname beehive came from a buzzing sound the flechettes made in flight. One M48 gunner described the round’s detonation as like God fired a shotgun.

  • The M113 ACAV

    But the most numerous and arguably effective AFV on the Vietnam battlefield wasn’t a tank at all. It was this, the M113 armored personnel carrier. To the grunts on the ground, it was simply known as “tracks.” M113s were supplied to the South Vietnamese even before the US ground intervention began. And low on armor, the ARVN had to make use of whatever they could get their hands on.

    Designed to be air portable, the M113 had aluminum armor. It weighed just 12 tons, had a top speed of 42 mph, was amphibious, had a crew of two, and it could carry up to 11 infantrymen. As an armored personnel carrier, the M113 was essentially a battle taxi designed to drop off its passengers and perhaps provide a bit of fire support from its pintle-mounted 50 cal. However, the ARVN hadn’t read the owner’s handbook. Rather than using M113s as APCs, they set about turning them into ersatz tanks. By adding extra M60 machine guns, recoilless rifles, and mortars.

    We’ve seen similar upgrading and front-line use of M113s by Ukraine.

    South Vietnamese troops used M113s in an armored assault role. To some extent, this worked. The M113’s mobility and amphibious capabilities were a godsend amongst the rivers, marshes, and rice patties. If a single vehicle couldn’t make it through, the ARVN created daisy chains, linking multiple M113s with steel hawsers. If one got stuck, the others would pull it out.

    The problem was that 38 mm of aluminium wasn’t enough to keep out heavy machine guns, let alone RPGs. And with the earlier M113s that were supplied to the ARVN, they were petrol-driven, which meant that they burned a whole lot easier. Once they got over their initial fear of the Green Dragons, the VC realized that all they had to do was pepper the M113s with fire when they appeared and something bad was likely to happen to the ARVN on the inside. Multiple RPG hits would result in a penetration while the top cover gunners were horrendously exposed to small arms fire. In a single action Ap Bac on the 2nd of January 1963, 13 were killed.

    With this experience, the vehicles were adapted with the creation of improvised weapon shields. Later formalized as one of the most iconic vehicles of the Vietnam War, the M113 AAV, the armored cavalry assault vehicle had extra belly armor to protect against mines, plus beefed up side armor. The 50 cal and the additional two M60s all had gun shields added to protect the crew. Suddenly, the battle taxis had real teeth, and the US forces started using them in an equally aggressive manner. Perfect for reconnaissance and mobility in the open terrain of the Mekong Delta and rubber plantation. The VC had nothing to match its firepower.

    At Ap Bau Bang in March of 1967, the US First Infantry ambushed by Vietcong forces used AAVs in a wagon wheel formation, firing in all directions to break up enemy assaults. During the iconic siege of the Marine Corps base at Khe Sanh, the AAVs used their mobility and firepower to carve routes into the base, allowing infantry and engineer units to lift the blockade. Not bad for a little vehicle that was essentially modified on the hoof and operating way beyond its original combat purpose.

  • The M50 Ontos

    But perhaps the strangest and in its niche most effective vehicle on the battlefields of Vietnam was the M50 Ontos. Ontos is the Greek word for thing, which is certainly less of a mouthful than its official title of Rifle Multiple 106mm Self-Propelled M50, but also an apt name for such an extraordinary looking vehicle.

    It does indeed look pretty funky.

    “The Marine Corps shows off its newest weapon. A speedy tank destroyer bristling with six powerful recoilless rifles, four smaller spotting rifles, and a machine gun. The Marines call it the Thing.”

    The Ontos is small, only 12 1/2 ft long and lightweight at 9 1/2 tons, making it easy to move by air. Yet despite its diminutive size, the Ontos bristled with six M40 106 mm recoilless rifles with a 50 caliber spotting rifle on each side. They could fire a mixture of heat, HE or beehive rounds. For the three-man crew, the biggest challenge was reloading. The loader was holed up in the back of the Ontos and had to exit the vehicle through a hatch and reload the 106s from the outside. Not much fun in the heat of battle.

    Despite this, the vehicle’s combination of mobility with ferocious firepower made them devastating in the right setting. Only 300 were built, but they punched way above their weight. In Hue City during the 1968 Tet Offensive, US Marines stood in awe as the Ontos weaved through the tightest urban environments, knocking out walls and cutting down entire squads of enemy soldiers. Such was the reputation of the Ontos that sometimes all that was required was for a 50 cal sighting rifle round to be fired into a building for the North Vietnamese to abandon the position. In the words of one veteran of Hue, “It was ugly, loud, and dangerous. Just what we needed.”

    The Ontos would also play a significant role in killing an entirely different set of commies in the Dominican Civil War in 1965.

  • American M48s would go on to destroy North Vietnamese T-54s during the full-scale invasion of the south, but by then the American withdrawal meant the writing was on the wall for the ARVN…

    (Title meme hat tip.)

    Abrams M1E3 Tank Prototype Unveiled (Sort Of)

    Thursday, January 15th, 2026

    The army has unveiled a prototype of the new Abrams M1E3 tank at the Detroit Auto Show, and people are (slightly) freaking out. Nicholas Moran explains why the freakout is unwarranted, as many features won’t be in the final version, but there are some interesting nuggets of actual design decision

    Ok. Some initial observations. Obviously lots of media will be coming through over the next two days, with their own topics and thoughts. My own video will come soon.

    1) Don’t get hung up about anything above the hull roof. In fact, don’t get hung up about everything below the hull roof either. As suspected, this is a test vehicle which is focused on crew operation. They just needed something to do the turret job, which is why they grabbed an A1 turret and modified it to fit the needs of the crew test program (including autoloader). A bespoke turret is being made with everything incorporated from the beginning instead of added on like the current tank, but that gets integrated after they know for sure what they need from testing. This vehicle has the turbine engine, other test vehicles are running the automotive trials on the Cat. Eventually everything will be put together, but that time is not now.

    2) As the RWS is above the hull roof, again, don’t get hung up on it. They needed an RWS for testing, that’s the one they grabbed. When they brought it to the show, the RWS had an empty rack, it could carry a Javelin, so they put a Javelin on it. The purpose is not to show that the thing can carry or is intended to carry a Javelin specifically, nobody here thinks there is any merit to using space/height/weight for things which things which don’t have to be on the tank for the tank to do tank things. They have been very focused on the design on the tank’s requirements as a tank. Instead the purpose was to demonstrate “the RWS will be modular and able to be reconfigured as required”. For similar reasons, don’t get too caught up on the Mk19, secondary armament mix and location has not been finalized. RWS’ll shoot down drones though.

    3) Power capacity for a coffee maker (110v plug socket) has been provided. (It actually has other uses officially, but you know someone will hook up a Keurig)

    4) Confirmed 3 man crew. In theory they expect a hatch up top for admin moves, maintenance access etc, (this vehicle does have one) and a cramped manual backup position if things get desperate.

    5) Tank can shoot and move with one crewman. It’s not ideal, but it’ll work. Again, I can’t overstate how important the software you can’t see is. Fully configurable crew stations, combat assistance and upgradeability is inherent. When it comes time to let the tank do everything on its own, there will be an app for that.

    6) No more broken torsion bars.

    7) Whilst I understand why it’s a static and closed display, it is, granted, a bit underwhelming to look at in photographs. The interesting stuff is under the hood and the tank on display is a great talking point for the folks here who are very excited about the end design, we could have talked for hours. The engineers will geek out more than the tank nerds, this really is a massive step in capability. The promise this vehicle shows to keep M1’s position as “apex predator on the battlefield” is definite, even if those who want to see the final, low profile, 60 ton vehicle right now are disappointed. It takes time to brew perfection.

    More from Global Defense News:

    The U.S. Army unveiled the first prototype of the future M1E3 Abrams tank at the Detroit Auto Show, allowing the public to see the future of the Abrams tank, but also likely to attract new recruits. The U.S. Army explained that this is an early demonstrator, meant to test ideas, crew layout, controls, and systems, rather than a finalized tank. Four early prototypes are planned, and they are expected to be used by operational units to see how the new features work in practice, as the serial production is targeted for the end of the decade. Roush Defense in Warren, Michigan, built this prototype, while General Dynamics Land Systems will handle full production planning. The overall direction focuses on digital systems, open architecture, and the ability to adapt to future threats through 2040 and beyond.

    The turret seen on the prototype looks familiar at first glance, but is heavily modified compared with earlier Abrams tanks. It is based on an older M1A1 turret shell, but it no longer has crew hatches, periscopes, or elements of the legacy fire control layout, confirming that the M1A3 Abrams will possess an unmanned turret, with all crew members located in the hull. The main gun remains externally consistent with the 120mm M256 smoothbore gun used on current Abrams tanks, with no visible change in size or layout. At the rear of the turret, a new bustle has been added, possibly to house an automatic loader for 120mm ammunition, reducing the crew from four to three. An additional opening to the left of the gun mantlet is visible and has been associated with a new primary sight or sensor location, though its specific role has not been clarified.

    On top of the turret, the M1E3 prototype carries an EOS R400 Mk2 remotely operated weapon station (RWS), clearly visible in available pictures. In the configuration shown, this RWS combines a 40mm Mk19 automatic grenade launcher, a 7.62mm machine gun, and a launcher holding an FGM-148 Javelin missile, presented as an example of what the R400 could carry. The R400 Mk2 is also paired with the EchoGuard radar for counter-drone detection and tracking, as well as close-range defense. U.S. Army representatives explained that this installation is modular and can be changed, depending on needs. In terms of optics, the AbramsX demonstrator employed the Safran PASEO panoramic sight as part of its sensor suite, while the M1E3 pre-prototype prefers the Leonardo S3 stabilized optoelectronic sight for commander and targeting functions.

    The hull of the displayed prototype shows more pronounced structural changes than the turret, particularly at the front. The upper frontal glacis appears to be reinforced, and features two forward hatches instead of the single driver hatch used on older Abrams tanks. This matches the idea of a three-person crew seated entirely in the hull, consistent with the removal of the loader position from the turret. Cameras, lighting elements, and sensors are distributed across the hull and turret to create a full external view for the crew, replacing direct vision blocks. The arrangement of the hatches suggests that internal space has been reorganized, likely side-by-side for at least part of the crew, to improve crew protection and awareness. Some components traditionally placed near the driver, such as fuel tanks, may have been moved, though this cannot be confirmed from the outside.

    Inside the M1E3, the focus is on reducing workload and making the tank easier to operate. The driver controls shown at the Detroit Auto Show 2025 use a Fanatec gaming controller as the primary control device, probably the Fanatec Formula V2, a commercially available gamepad selected for its adaptability and ease of use. The U.S. Army stated that this approach significantly reduces the time required to train a new driver, adapting to a global trend where military careers are less attractive to young people. Crew stations are described as fully digital and configurable, meaning displays and controls can be adjusted through the software interface. The prototype is also described as being able to move and fire with only one crew member on board, which shows the level of automation being considered by the U.S. Army as part of its new strategy, even if this mode is not intended for normal operations. Electrical power inside the M1E3 supports computers, sensors, and other onboard equipment, and we can assume that it carries batteries, given that the U.S. Army has confirmed in the past that the future M1A3 Abrams will be hybrid.

    From a mobility perspective, the prototype shows a mix of old and new elements, although it is not clear what will remain on the future M1A3 Abrams. The displayed tank prototype is said to keep the traditional Abrams turbine engine, confirming that it is not representative of the final hybrid propulsion solution. At the same time, the Army has confirmed its intention to transition to a commercial diesel engine with a new transmission to improve fuel efficiency and maintenance. The suspension system visible on the M1E3 might be new, as the tank appears to sit lower, suggesting an adjustable ground clearance, maybe through the use of a hydropneumatic system instead of the traditional torsion bars, reminding the Abrams Suspension Technology Demonstrator (STD). Commentary associated with available pictures mentions a transversely mounted powerpack concept and an ACT1075LP transmission paired with a Caterpillar CAT inline diesel engine as part of ongoing automotive trials.

    This is all in line with what we previously knew of army designs for the new tank.

    The Detroit Auto Show prototype is like a Marvel teaser trailer for a superhero flick that’s just started filming: Beyond a few key points, very little real information is conveyed. Still, there are a few nuggets of solid intel to be gleaned.

  • Three crew members, a reduction of one from the four crew members for the M1A2.
  • That’s almost certainly the loader, which means the long-expected transition to an autoloader is happening.
  • That also means an unmanned turret with the crew controlling the tank from the hull compartment.
  • What type of autoloader remains the question. Given the emphasis on modularity, I have to think some sort of quick-change cassette system for rapid resupply may be in the cards.
  • Presumably technology has advanced enough that a modern, U.S.-built autoloader will be as quick or quicker than famously quick Abrams gun crews.
  • Three men crews mean fewer sets of hands to repair things. They may address this by adding additional maintenance personnel at the company level.
  • No more torsion bar suspension.
  • Moving from a 1,500 hp gas turbine engine to a 1,000 hp commercial diesel engine plus electric hybrid is not without risk. I also wonder if they’ll modify the Caterpillar engine to use the JP-8 fuel standardized across American armed forces, or if this presages a change in fuel strategy.
  • Fully digital and configurable controls are great until you have to reboot them. Hopefully the system will have robust fail-safes.
  • Not shown in the prototype: The Trophy active defense system installed in the M1A2 SEPv3 package. I expect that, or equivalent, with added anti-drone capability, to be in the production version.
  • The Detroit Auto Show prototype is less a revelation of new trends than a confirmation the project is heading in the direction already outlined.

    “President Trump Has Joined The Revolution”

    Tuesday, January 13th, 2026

    Tousi TV says that President Trump is fully on the side of the Iranian Revolution against the Mullahs:

  • “President Donald J. Trump has officially joined the revolution against the Islamic occupation in Iran!”
  • Reza Pahlavi and his mother, the last Empress of Iran, have also issued statements continuing to support the ousting of the Islamist regime.
  • The Iranian people are still out on the street.
  • President Trump has issued a statement stating the U.S. has broken off negotiation with the Islamist regime. “Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING – Take OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY. MIGA!!! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP.” MIGA stands for Make Iran Great Again.
  • President Trump said he would meet with the Islamist regime, but his preconditions were they had to stop killing protesters and release all political prisoners. Obviously that didn’t happen.
  • Tousi thinks symbolic airstrikes are off the table and now only regime change will suffice.
  • “On the ground, the situation is escalating very quickly.”
  • Internet and lighting blackouts remains in place.
  • The top of the regime is dug in and continues to kill the people. “This is war-level gunfire.”
  • “The BBC is the propaganda arm of the Iranian regime.”
  • Khamenei’s inner circle is “falling apart.”
  • Reza Pahlavi: Efforts to reestablish communications are underway.
  • “Massive reactions from the international community. Countries are jumping on the wagon, left, right and center, except for one country, that’s the United Kingdom, which is doubling down on support for the Islamic Republic.” More proof that Keir Starmer is a complete asshole.
  • “Australia are saying the current Islamic regime in Iran does not have legitimacy.”
  • Apart from Israel and the United States, the country most supporting the Iranian people has been Germany. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz: “I believe we are witnessing the final days of the regime. It has no legitimacy among the population.” It sounds like that vaunted “international community” Democrats are always nattering on about are ready for the mullahs to go.
  • American military assets are coming into the Middle East from Europe.
  • Over 12,000 Iranians have been killed by Ali Khamenei’s regime. “There’s been a huge number of defections from those refusing to follow orders, realizing Khamenei is on the way out.”
  • Khamenei is supposedly in a bunker on the desert.
  • Tousi seems to be getting key details about the situation right before the MSM reports them.

    Possibly more later.

    Update: Blog was briefly down due to excessive hits from 45.134.225.250. Reverse DNS doesn’t resolve a domain name. Anyone know what that could be?

    Iran: IRGC Commanders Assassinated; U.S., Israeli Help Expected UPDATED

    Sunday, January 11th, 2026

    Friday we reported the assassination of IRCG commander Mahmoud Haqiqat in Iranshahr.

    Now, in a Livestream, TousiTV is reporting the assassination of other IRCG officials:

  • “Reza Kasab, head of a ballistic missile unit in Kashan, this was a professional hit. He was assassinated by a suicide drone attack.”
  • “There are a lot of operatives on the ground carrying out these attacks.”
  • “Multiple generals have been killed in Iran.”
  • He notes that Israel’s strikes last year killed multiple senior IRGC officials, so now the replacement leaders are being killed.
  • “Islamic State TV in Iran have confirmed that IRCG have lost hundreds of their personnel in leadership.” My suspicion is that the IRCG have lost hundreds, but not all in leadership.
  • Reports of Mossad agents on the ground helping the revolution. This is the sort of thing that both sides in the conflict would say to help shore up resolve in their respective bases, but the drone attack suggests it’s true. (Could also be IDF special forces, CIA, or U.S. special forces.)
  • But it carries more weight when it comes from Mossad’s official Farsi Twitter account. “Go out together into the streets. The time has come. We are with you. Not only from a distance and verbally. We are with you in the field.”
  • “There is someone professional carrying out these attacks against the Islamic occupation in Iran.”
  • “Reza Pahlavi has called for a general strike.” But everybody’s already on strike.
  • Reports of atrocities committed by the regime against the people (of course). “Over 2,000 people have been killed.”
  • Israel’s military is on full alert, and Iran is threatening to launch “over 500” missiles at them.
  • American strike against the regime expected on Tuesday? “Trump has been doubling down every single day.” And indeed, Tuesday seems to have a scheduled meeting for Trump to go over military options in Iran.
  • Caveats: Tousi TV is run by Mahyar Tousi, a fierce critic of Iran’s Islamist regime, so he’s more cheerleader for the revolution than a neutral observer. So am I, but I always council caution on believing good news you want to believe. But several elements of what Tousi has stated here appear to check out.

    Those are just a few early highlights of a livestream that’s still ongoing.

    There are already rumors circulating that the regime is flying gold to Russia in advance of Ali Khamenei bugging out to Moscow.

    Things in Iran moving very fast indeed.

    Update: Tousi has a livestream with the teaser “Trump is sending help” scheduled for 2:45 PM…

    Update 2:

  • From that Livestream: “President Trump confirms he will be sending help to the Iranian people.”
  • Iranian people continue to occupy the streets of Tehran in defiance of the regime’s armed threats.
  • “There is a President in the White House who supports them.”
  • “They’re not going back to work. There’s no work. There’s no money. There’s no light. There’s no water.”
  • IDF hitting Hezbollah in Lebanon.
  • U.S.: “Multiple military options.” Including cybersupport.
  • Heh: “Lindsey Graham doing Lindsey Graham things.”
  • “Reza Pahlavi is coming.”
  • Protesters are disarming regime forces on the street.
  • Now the regime is trying to jam Starlink.
  • U.S. forces have been hitting Islamic State targets in Syria. (Not sure how relevant this is to Iran. The Islamic State considers shiia heretical so, unlike Hamas or Hezbollah, are unlikely to help the regime.)
  • Reports of regime forces seizing satellite dishes.
  • Update 3: Embedding the stream:

    More later, probably.

    A Look At The F-47

    Saturday, January 10th, 2026

    Megaprojects (AKA Simon Whistler) takes a look at the forthcoming, radically advanced F-47 stealth fighter.

  • “The F-47 is the United States Air Force’s new sixth generation air superiority fighter.”
  • “It’s being built by Boeing as the centerpiece of the Next Generation Air Dominance program, or NGAD. Because the military loves a good acronym almost as much as they love overspending.”
  • “It is designed to be the successor to the F-22 Raptor, which means its primary job is simple: Go to a place where the enemy has absolute control of the air, kill everything flying, and then come home safely.”
  • “It’s built to operate as the quarterback of a swarm of semi-autonomous drones fighting in environments that are far too dangerous for today’s aircraft.”
  • “Why F-47? Well, it turns out the designation is a piece of triple layered symbolism. Historically, the F-47 designation was used in 1947 for the legendary P47 Thunderbolt, the unkillable heavy fighter of World War II. It also conveniently nods to 1947, the year the US Air Force was founded as an independent branch. And perhaps most importantly for the people signing the checks, it lines up oh so perfectly with the 47th president who pushed the program over the finish line.”
  • The F-22 was designed for the Cold War, but the Cold War ended.
  • “The threat shifted to the vast empty expanse of the Pacific. And in the Pacific, the Raptors got a bit of a problem. In military speak, it’s called combat radius. Basically how far the jet can go, do its job, and then get back home without running out of fuel. The F-22’s got a combat radius of about 590 nautical miles. The F-35 is a little bit better at around 670. That sounds like a lot until you look at a map of the Pacific Ocean, which is really big. In that theater, 600 mi gets you from your air base to, well, the absolute middle of nowhere.”
  • “The requirement for this new jet is a combat radius of over 1,000 nautical miles.” That’s a 70% increase over the F-22. “It means this jet can take off from London, fly a combat mission over Moscow, and fly back to London without needing to refuel.”
  • “The F-47 isn’t just a super fighter designed to go out and dogfight alone. It’s that quarterback we mentioned of a family of systems. It’s designed to fly into battle surrounded by loyal wingman drones, sensors, and electronic warfare platforms.”
  • “Internal estimates from the Air Force have put the price of a single F-47 around $300 million. For context, that’s roughly three times the price of an F-35. It is a staggering amount of money.”
  • “By the time President Trump announced the F-47 name, there hadn’t just been one prototype. There had been multiple X-planes flying hundreds of hours in secret test ranges.”
  • Boeing beat out competing finalist Lockheed Martin for the contract.
  • “But in 2024, the whole program almost drove off a cliff. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall looked at that $300 million per jet price tag and hit the pause button. The service spent months frantically studying alternatives. Could they just buy more F-35s? Could they upgrade older F-15s? By early 2025, the answer came back. No, that’s not going to be enough. If they want to beat China in the 2030s, they need this plane.”
  • “The timeline here is super aggressive. The Air Force claims that the real F-47, not just the demonstrators, will take its first flight around 2028. The goal is to have the first operational units ready by early 2029.”
  • Top speed is over Mach 2, and it’s capable of supercruise (i.e., fly over Mach 1 without afterburners for fuel efficiency).
  • The planned buy is 185 units, roughly the size of the current F-22 fleet. “This tells us the Air Force isn’t planning to replace every F-16 with an F-47. This is a plane that is going to be reserved for the absolute hardest missions”
  • “And finally, there’s the most controversial spec of all, its stealth rating. On the official Air Force graphic, the F-35 is labeled as stealth. The F-22 is labeled as stealth+. The F-47 is labeled as stealth++.”
  • “The F-47’s shape suggests that it’s designed to be invisible to everything.” Including low-frequency radar.
  • “Every official rendering shows a blended wing body, a shovel-nosed diamond-shaped wedge with no tail fins. This is the holy grail of stealth.”
  • “Without computers making micro adjustments a thousand times a second, a tailless fighter is just going to flip over and have a bad time.”
  • “The new adaptive engines, likely either GA’s XA102 or Prattt & Whitney’s XA103, can literally change their internals in mid-flight. They use a third stream of air flow to switch between a fuel sipping cruise mode and a high thrust combat mode. It gives you 30% more range and 20% more thrust from the same tank of gas.” Sort of like how the SR-71 engine switched internal configurations during different phases of flight.
  • “The F-47 is built with a modular open systems [computer] architecture…The hardware is just a shell for software that could be constantly updated. If a new missile or sensor is invented in 2035, well, you can just plug it in.”
  • Some speculate it could carry nuclear weapons if need be.
  • “But the most radical part of the F-47 isn’t the plane itself. It’s its mates. The F-47 is designed to never fight alone. It is the leader of a pack of robotic wingmen called collaborative combat aircraft, or CCAs. These are semi-autonomous drones that fly alongside the manned fighter. They’re jet powered, stealthy, and crucially, they’re affordable. The Air Force is targeting a price of $25 to $30 million per drone, which does sound like a lot, but compared to the $300 million mothership, these things are practically disposable. In March 2025, the Air Force designated the first two demonstrators for this program: The YFQ42A from General Atomics and the YFQ44A from Anduril.”
  • “The pilot in the F-47 is not flying them with a joystick. They’re just giving them commands like a quarterback calling a play. Drone One, jam that radar. Drone Two, fly ahead and scout. Drone Three, shoot anything that moves. The onboard AI is going to do the rest, which is pretty cool. This completely changes the job of the pilot. You’re no longer just an ace looking through a HUD. You’re essentially a sort of distributed air battle manager commanding a small robot squadron from the cockpit.”
  • “You can use the drones as missile trucks carrying extra weapons so the F-47 doesn’t have to ruin its stealth. You can send them ahead as decoys to trigger enemy defenses. You can even have them sacrifice themselves to save the manned jet. Like we said, they’re disposable $30 million drones.”
  • The Boeing contract for the F-47 is structured differently than Lockheed Martin’s was for the F-35, which was a walled garden. “If the Air Force wants to upgrade the F-35, they’ve got to go and pay Lockheed to do it, which is fantastic for Lockheed, but not so much for the Air Force. Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall has publicly called that arrangement a quote serious mistake. For the F-47, the government is demanding government purpose rights for all that data.” It’s going to be a much more plug-and-play option, allowing different defense contractors to upgrade different components.
  • Unlike the F-22, Boeing might be allowed to sell slightly less capable versions of the F-47 to allies.
  • Snipping the section on potential rivals, like China, since right now it’s vaporware, and China’s capabilities always seem to radically lag their outsized boasts.
  • “The level of technical risk here is honestly pretty terrifying. The Air Force is trying to develop a new stealth airframe, a revolutionary adaptive cycle engine, a brand new mission system architecture, and a fleet of autonomous AI drones all at the same time. And they are trying to do it on a schedule that is significantly faster than the F-35s.” All true. But we’re radically far ahead of anyone else.
  • “Many aviation analysts, including those at the Warzone, have described the F-47 as likely being the Air Force’s last manned tactical jet.”
  • “There’s a human in the cockpit, but they’re not really there to pull Gs and dog fight. They’re there to make moral decisions and manage the swarm. It’s less Maverick and more systems administrator in a G-suit.”
  • “The pilots training today might be the last generation to ever actually sit inside the weapon that they are flying. After the F-47, the human likely moves to a ground control station and the cockpit becomes empty forever.”
  • Very possibly. Technology improves by leaps and bounds, while humans remain human. Plus an unmanned aircraft can pull radically more Gs than a manned one can…

    LinkSwarm For January 9, 2026

    Friday, January 9th, 2026

    Iran teeters, Walz falls, more Russia’s shadow fleet has an epically bad week, more Minnesota Somali fraud fallout, more computer security vulnerabilities, and a policeman transformed into a frog using the power of AI! Plus the Austro-Hungarian and Achaemenid empires. It’s the Friday LinkSwarm!

    Personally, this week has been deeply frustrating, as I’ve been trying to withdraw money from my 401K account to pay my property taxes, a process I began mid-December, and it’s still not done. “Oh, these things take time,’ says 401K company. Then it’s “Oh, we haven’t heard back from your former employers.” Former employer: “Oh, we haven’t received the request from your 401K company.” Then: “Oh, the third party company we hired to handle 401K requests hasn’t received the request.” Now it’s “Oh, they’ve just started working on it, but they’re always slow at the end of the year.” It’s frustrating to have to jump through so many hoops to access my own money.

    On to the LinkSwarm!

  • From the outside, it’s hard to tell how serious the chances of protesters are to free their own country, but they’re so fed up with the mullah’s rule that they’re burning mosques.

    Iranian protestors demonstrating against the theocratic regime will face harsh punishment with absolutely zero leniency, Iran’s top judge has warned — as footage emerged Friday of mosques burning on the streets of Tehran amid the ongoing riots.

    Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, the head of Iran’s judiciary, issued the stark warning after President Trump vowed to back those peacefully demonstrating across the country.

    Signaling a potentially violent crackdown, Ejei vowed the punishment for rioters would “be decisive, maximum and without any legal leniency.”
    Protesters gather as vehicles burn in Tehran, Iran.

    Things in Iran seem to be moving very fast indeed…

  • “Authorities report that Mahmoud Haqiqat, a police station commander in Iranshahr, Iran’s southeastern Sistan and Baluchestan Province, was shot and killed by unknown assailants this week in a drive-by attack. Video circulating online appears to show gunmen firing on Haqiqat’s vehicle before it crashed. Social posts and video descriptions identify him as the former head of the city’s intelligence and allege that he was involved in operations targeting anti-regime Baluch groups in the area.” Add Balochs to Kurds and Lurs as ethnic minorities pissed at the mullah’s government. There’s also a substantial Baloch population in Pakistan, and they don’t like the Pakistani government either. Hell, history records the Balochs rebelling against the Achaemenid Empire three millennia ago…
  • “Blue states created an election trimester for ballots, now Trump conservatives are pushing back.”

    With constant pressure from liberal activists, some states now dispatch mail-in ballots 45 to 60 days before Election Day and allow the counting of such absentee votes as many as three weeks afterward, creating an election trimester that causes vote tallies to wildly fluctuate days after polls close and increasingly erodes Americans’ trust.

    But conservatives are now fighting back, first with an executive order by President Donald Trump requiring all ballots to be counted on election night, followed by a challenge to Mississippi’s counting process that has not reached the U.S. Supreme Court and then the Ohio legislature’s vote to require all its ballots to arrive on election night to be tallied.

    “It’s common sense that ballots should arrive by Election Day,” Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose told Just the News this week after his state became the 35th to require mail-in ballots to arrive by Election Night in order to be counted. Previously, the state had a four-day grace period for ballots to arrive after Election Day.

    “I think that trying to reduce complexity should be our goal in government, and certainly when it comes to the rules for how elections run,” LaRose said in a wide-ranging interview with the John Solomon Reports podcast. “If you were to stop the average person on the street last year and say, what’s the deadline for your ballot to get back to the board of elections, they would not know that it’s four days after. It’s kind of an arbitrary date.”

    The National Conference of State Legislatures reported that many states now mail out ballots as early as 45 days to two months before Election Day and about a dozen states allow them to be counted days later — as long as three weeks afterward in Washington state, 14 days in Illinois, 10 days in Maryland and seven days in California and New York.

  • There’s not a violin small enough. “Minnesota Governor Tim Walz Drops Reelection Bid amid Somali Fraud Scandal.”

    Tim Walz is dropping his bid for a third term as governor of Minnesota amid a national political firestorm sparked by the identification of massive welfare fraud in the state’s Somali community.

    Walz released a statement Monday morning ahead of a late morning press conference announcing his withdrawal from the race.

    “But as I reflected on this moment with my family and my team over the holidays, I came to the conclusion that I can’t give a political campaign my all. Every minute I spend defending my own political interests would be a minute I can’t spend defending the people of Minnesota against the criminals who prey on our generosity and the cynics who prey on our differences,” Walz said. “So I’ve decided to step out of the race and let others worry about the election while I focus on the work.”

    Translation: “I got caught, and I need to see if I can get away from this giant pile of graft as quickly as possible.”

    Walz and fellow Minnesota Democrats have been subjected to withering attacks at the hands of Trump and his allies over the staggering scale of welfare fraud that’s taken place under their noses in recent years. Federal prosecutors announced last month that the cost of the welfare fraud perpetrated against state-run Medicaid services alone could exceed $9 billion, half or more of the $18 billion paid out since 2018.

    A federal probe into the matter has been initiated, and Minnesota officials have until January 9 to provide the administration with more information regarding who is receiving the welfare benefits in the state.

    It’s amazing that anyone can give Gavin Newsom a run for the title of America’s Most Incompetent Governor, but Walz is just that special.

  • A few facts on Somalis in Minnesota:
    • 54% of Somalis are on food stamps
    • 73% on Medicaid
    • 81% on Welfare
    • 78% on Welfare after 10 years

    The perfect Democrat constituency…

  • It’s been going on a while. “Minnesota Inspector General [Carolyn Ham] covered up hundreds of millions in Somali childcare fraud in 2018.”

    You know how the Somali childcare fraud has been a big thing, kind of an open secret in Minnesota for years now?

    Well, not only has this been happening for at least a decade, but, according to this report, the state has known about it for at least that long.

    Check out these receipts from Maze on X detailing a nine-year-old investigation into the fraud at Minnesota’s Child Care Assistance Program — an investigation that went nowhere.

    The Minnesota child care fraud saga is so strange because years ago it was fully investigated, documented, and reported on by a team of state investigators set up to catch and stop child care fraud.

    They spent years gathering evidence including many hours of surveillance footage. In 2018 they compiled a detailed report and delivered it to their boss, the DHS Inspector General.

    Directly from the report: ‘Investigators, as well as the Supervisor and Manager of this unit believe that the overall fraud rate in this program is at least 50% of the $217M paid to child care centers in CY2017.’

    What did the Inspector General do with this information? She refused to meet with her own team, refused to discuss the findings of the report, and then spent $90,000 of taxpayer money to have an outside company write a report saying the fraud isn’t quite as bad as her own team of investigators was claiming.

    Woke is a heckuva drug, isn’t it?

    So is corruption, scamming, and Democratic politics in general.

  • “Growing List Of Democratic Billionaire Kings & Queens Funnel Millions Into Terror-Tied Nonprofits.”

    Former Wall Street Journal reporter Asra Nomani, now at Fox News, is investigating the left-wing, billionaire-funded dark money networks in the nonprofit world and offering much-needed coverage for mainstream Americans on how these NGOs influence protest movements, unleash riots, and conduct sophisticated political pressure campaigns.

    Snip.

    Key details from the report:

    • MacKenzie Scott disclosed sending at least $5 million in a new round of donations to the Solidaire Network, on top of a $10 million gift in 2021 via her philanthropy vehicle, Yield Giving.
    • Solidaire funds a network of radical anti-Israel activist groups, including Students for Justice in Palestine and American Muslims for Palestine, both of which are under House and Senate investigation for alleged coordination with Hamas-linked activities.
    • Other Solidaire-backed groups include the Palestinian Youth Movement and the US Palestinian Community Network, which publicly justified Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.
    • Scott’s grants are unrestricted, allowing recipients to spend funds freely. Solidaire used this flexibility to finance campaigns promoting “Palestinian liberation,” campus protests, and direct-action activism, including efforts to block U.S. military logistics supporting Israel.
    • Funding was often routed through fiscal sponsors such as WESPAC Foundation and Tides Foundation, structures that have drawn scrutiny from Republican lawmakers investigating possible links to extremist groups.
    • Scott’s cumulative charitable giving has reached roughly $26 billion since 2019, surpassing the lifetime donations of George Soros, and placing her at the center of growing political controversy over billionaire-funded activist networks.

  • Doug Ross provides more leftwing funding network graphics.

  • Somalia’s UN Ambassador, Implicated in a Medicare Scandal, May Have Acquired American Citizenship Under False Pretenses.”

    The Somali ambassador to the United Nations, Abukar Dahir Osman, who is tied to a daycare company in Ohio under investigation in Washington, might have acquired an American citizenship fraudulently, according to a source in Somaliland.

    Ambassador Osman, who currently serves as the rotating president of the UN Security Council, first entered America in the mid-1980s and again in 1989. He claimed to be a refugee of a minority in Somaliland persecuted by the Somali regime at the time, a Somaliland ambassador at large who tweets under the name of Haggoogane, tells the Sun via text.

    Haggoogane, whose real name is Mustafa Osman but is unrelated to the ambassador, says that the current Somali UN ambassador was far from a refugee fearing extermination by the Somali regime. Instead, he tells the Sun, the UN ambassador was part of that regime in the late 1980s. “His job was to identify anyone the regime saw as a threat,” Haggoogane says.

    Between 1960 and 1991 the government of Somalia killed hundreds of thousands of ethnic Isaaq and others in Somaliland, which declared independence of Mogadishu in 1991.

    Following Israel’s recognition of Somaliland last month, the Israeli foreign minister, Gideon Sa’ar, visited its capital, Hargeisa, on Tuesday, and met with President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi. After Israel became the first UN member to recognize Somaliland’s independence, Mr. Osman, the Somali UN ambassador, convened an “emergency session” of the security council.

    At Washington on Tuesday, the deputy secretary at the Department of Health and Human Service, Jim O’Neill, confirmed a rumor regarding the Somali ambassador, which has long been whispered in UN corridors.

    “I can confirm public speculation that Ambassador Abukar Dahir Osman, Permanent Representative of Somalia to the UN and President of the Security Council, is in fact associated with Progressive Health Care Services, a home health agency in Cincinnati,” Mr. O’Neill wrote on X. “HHS has previously taken action against Progressive in response to a conviction for Medicaid fraud. More to come.”

  • US seizes Russian-flagged tanker, intercepts ‘dark fleet’ ship in Venezuela sanctions crackdown.”

    The United States seized a Russian-flagged oil tanker in the North Atlantic this week while also intercepting a separate stateless “dark fleet” vessel tied to Venezuelan oil exports, US officials said, marking a significant escalation in Washington’s enforcement campaign against sanctioned energy shipments.

    According to US officials, the Russian-flagged tanker Marinera, previously known as Bella-1, was seized on Wednesday near Iceland after being tracked for more than two weeks across the Atlantic, reports Reuters. The operation occurred as Russian military assets, including a submarine, were operating in the general area, though officials said there were no signs of confrontation.

    In a post on X, US European Command said the tanker was seized for violating US sanctions. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth responded, writing, “The blockade of sanctioned and illicit Venezuelan oil remains in FULL EFFECT — anywhere in the world.”

    Two US officials said the operation was carried out by the US Coast Guard with support from the US military. The Coast Guard declined to comment. Russian officials have not issued a response, though Russian state media outlet RT published an image showing a helicopter hovering near the ship.

    The Marinera had previously evaded US enforcement efforts in the Caribbean and refused boarding attempts. After those encounters, it re-registered under a Russian flag and changed its name, officials said. Sources indicated the vessel may now be heading toward British territorial waters, though its final destination has not been confirmed. The UK Ministry of Defence declined to comment.

    Separately, US Southern Command confirmed that the Coast Guard intercepted another tanker, the Panama-flagged M/T Sophia, in Latin American waters early Wednesday. The vessel was described as a “stateless, sanctioned dark fleet motor tanker” linked to Venezuelan oil shipments.

  • “Prosecutor Calls Newsom ‘King Of Fraud‘ For Oversight Failures.”

    U.S. First Assistant Attorney Bill Essayli Thursday called California Gov. Gavin Newsom “the king of fraud,” accusing him of a lack of oversight on spending to address homelessness.

    Essayli made the comments on the “Fox and Friends” telecast, during which he discussed the federal fraud charges that were filed in October against real estate executives Steven Taylor and Cody Holmes for allegedly misusing grant money meant for homeless housing.

    Holmes, 31, of Beverly Hills was charged with mail fraud charge that was allegedly linked to millions of dollars in grant money that the state paid Shangri-La Industries to purchase, build and operate homeless housing in Thousand Oaks, just north of Los Angeles. Holmes was Shangri-La’s chief financial officer.

    Taylor, 44, of Brentwood, was charged with seven counts of bank fraud, one count of aggravated identity theft and one count of money laundering.

    Essayli Thursday said the charges are the “tip of the iceberg” in an investigation he launched with a task force in April. He said more charges would be coming, probably later this month.

    The state spent $24 billion in the last five years to address homelessness and can’t account for where the money went, Essayli said on “Fox and Friends.”

  • California Democrats: “Hey, let’s institute a wealth tax on billionaires!” California billionaires: “See ya!

    A ballot measure that could tax the wealthiest people in California may reportedly push billionaires Larry Page and Peter Thiel to leave the state, while other wealthy residents have condemned the idea, whose supporters claim could generate up to $100 billion—though the measure has yet to be considered by state officials or voters.

    • Thiel, who cofounded PayPal and Palantir, and Google cofounder Page have held discussions to reduce their ties to California by the end of the year because of the billionaire tax proposal, The New York Times reported, citing people familiar with their thinking.
    • Thiel operates the investment firm Thiel Capital and may open an office for the company in another state, with plans to spend more time outside of California, while Page has filed documents to incorporate three limited liability companies in Florida, according to the Times.
    • Bill Ackman weighed in, calling California “on a path to self-destruction,” adding, “Hollywood is already toast and now the most productive entrepreneurs will leave, taking their tax revenues and job creation elsewhere.”
    • Billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya wrote on X the proposed ballot measure would result in an “exodus of the state’s most talented entrepreneurs” who would opt to “build their companies in less regressive states,” and argued the middle class would be the worst hit by the tax.

    Dear Fleeing Billionaires: Welcome to Texas! Please be sure to discard any liberal ideas you brought with you in the nearest trash receptacle…

  • “Ukrainian Drones Hit Usman Oil Depot in Lipetsk & Ball Bearing Factory in Penza.”
  • Major train crash on key route used to feed Putin’s war machine with North Korean military equipment…A freight train hauling 35 wagons spectacularly derailed in Russia’s remote Amur region on the Transbaikal Railway – a strategic line linked to the famed Trans-Siberian route.”
  • Ukraine also hit the Oryol power plant.
  • Ukraine also hit Russian shadow fleet tanker Elbus in the Black Sea off the coast of Turkey. It’s been a bad week all around for Russia’s shadow fleet…
  • France and UK bomb Islamic State targets in Syria. This isn’t the first time France has bombed Islamic State terrorists, as they also participated in Operation Chammal in 2014, back when the would-be caliphate was much closer to the extremely short zenith of its limited powers.
  • Minnesota woman tries to run over ICE agent, immediately enters find out phase.

    Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers fatally shot a woman during an operation in Minneapolis Wednesday.

    As videos of the incident went viral, the Department of Homeland Security justified the shooting on self-defense grounds, calling the slain woman a “violent rioter” who “weaponized her vehicle” by driving towards federal agents.

    Today, ICE officers in Minneapolis were conducting targeted operations when rioters began blocking ICE officers and one of these violent rioters weaponized her vehicle, attempting to run over our law enforcement officers in an attempt to kill them—an act of domestic terrorism. An ICE officer, fearing for his life, the lives of his fellow law enforcement and the safety of the public, fired defensive shots,” said DHS assistant secretary Tricia McLaughlin.

    “The alleged perpetrator was hit and is deceased. The ICE officers who were hurt are expected to make full recoveries. This is the direct consequence of constant attacks and demonization of our officers by sanctuary politicians who fuel and encourage rampant assaults on our law enforcement.”

  • She wasn’t the only idiot dirtnapped trying to run over ICE agents. A Tren de Aragua scumbag tried the same trick, and met the same fate, in Portland. Naturally, the usual leftist idiots there rioted.

    Yesterday, Border Patrol officers had to shoot a dangerous criminal gang member in self-defense after he committed a vehicular assault on them to evade arrest. Leftists in the sanctuary city of Portland, Ore., promptly turned out to protest his shooting — and apparently to try to accomplish his deadly intention against federal officers.

    In case you still have any illusions that the Democratic Party is not essentially a criminal organization, just look at the fury and violence the last few days in blue cities over the shootings of individuals who deliberately tried to seriously injure or kill Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) or Border Patrol officers. Renee Good in Minnesota and the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua member in Oregon were both violently and dangerously ramming their vehicles into officers at the time they were shot. That makes them leftist heroes and martyrs, it seems.

    The American left is trying to do a repeat of the summer of love and mostly peaceful protests in 2020. They want to burn down what is still standing after their previous riots. With Democrat politicians and media lying to fuel violence and their followers cheering for murder, how can we avoid the conclusion that the Democratic Party is acting like a terror organization?

    (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)

  • “U.S. Department of Homeland Security Suspends Funds for Immigration Work of Catholic Charities RGV. The charity is accused of grant violations and incomplete recordkeeping.”

    The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has suspended the funding for Catholic Charities of the Rio Grande Valley (CCRGV) pending an investigation into whether or not the charity is complying with federal grant requirements.

    According to CCRGV, the charity learned of the suspension in late November 2025. It claims that it is “committed to compliance with federal grant requirements and will work expeditiously with DHS to resolve the matter.”

    The charity stated that all of its funding was used to care for people brought to CCRGV by U.S. Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) — individuals who were “released by CBP with a document that gave them permission to travel to their points of destination with instructions on where to follow up with their immigration proceedings.”

    CCRGV runs the Humanitarian Respite Center in McAllen, a place that offers food and shelter to immigrants who are awaiting court hearings.

    According to reporting by Fox News, CCRGV was suspended after a DHS investigation revealed what the outlet called “major grant violations.”

    The suspension follows “months of warnings and data reviews that auditors say uncovered sweeping inaccuracies, large gaps in migrant records, and significant billing outside federally allowed timeframes,” Fox News reported.

    The investigators also reportedly found 248 instances in which CCRGV billed the federal government for services to immigrants outside of the 45-day window allowed by federal rules.

  • “North America Leads Largest LNG Export Surge Since 2022.”

    Surging liquefied natural gas exports from new North American export plants likely pushed global LNG shipments in 2025 by the most since 2022, Kpler data showed on Tuesday.

    The annual rise in 2025 would be the steepest increase in global LNG exports since 2022, when shipments grew by 4.5% compared to 2021, the data showed.

    North America was the key supplier of new LNG volumes, as Canada’s first-ever export facility, LNG Canada, started shipments in the middle of 2025, and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana launched operations and ramped up shipments throughout the year.

    Thanks to rising capacity and volumes, the U.S. is set to become the first LNG exporter in the world to have passed in 2025 the threshold of 100 million tons of LNG exports in one year.

    Additional LNG supply is poised to hit the market between 2026 and 2030 as more U.S. export plants come online and Qatar begins shipments from its huge capacity expansion of the North Field export facilities.

    The U.S. is set to export 14.9 billion cubic feet per day of LNG in 2025, up by 25% from 2024, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for December. With new projects ramping up, the EIA expects U.S. LNG exports to jump to an average of 16.3 billion cubic feet per day in 2026.

  • “Trump blocks chips deal over national security, China-related concerns.”

    President Donald Trump on Friday blocked the Delaware firm HieFo Corporation from acquiring assets in New Jersey-based aerospace and defense specialist Emcore for $3 million, citing national security and China-related concerns.

    The president claimed HieFo was “controlled by a citizen of the People’s Republic of China,” and that there was evidence to believe HieFo, through the merger, may “take action that threatens to impair the national security of the United States.”

    “The Transaction is hereby prohibited,” Trump said and ordered HieFo to “divest all interests and rights in the Emcore assets, wherever located,” within 180 days.

    Snip. “HieFo purchased Emcore’s chips business and indium-phosphide wafer-fabrication operations for $2.92 million.” Indium-Phosphide is a pretty exotic wafer material used in optics and photonics chips.

  • Leprino Foods, the world’s largest mozzarella producer and a vital supplier to major pizza chains like Domino’s, Pizza Hut, and Papa John’s, moved its operations from California to Texas. “For over a century, the Lemoore plant in California’s Central Valley served as a cornerstone of the dairy industry, but the company is now shifting billions of dollars and hundreds of jobs into a new $870 million facility in Lubbock, Texas.”
  • Progress! “Corporation for Public Broadcasting votes itself out of existence. The private agency, which has distributed federal funding to PBS, NPR and hundreds of local television and radio stations across the country for more than a half-century, saw its appropriations from Congress eliminated this past summer.” They promised Big Bird and delivered leftwing propaganda.
  • NYC Bus Fares Raised To $3 Despite Mamdani’s Promise To Make It Free.” Commies breaking promises?

  • Borepatch: The 2025 most dangerous software exploits list.

    I get an incredible sense of deja vu all over again looking at Mitre’s list of top 25 exploits for 2025.

    The top 4 are all very, very old. I myself demonstrated #4 when I taught a computer security class (with corporate IT Security present) back in 1994. That’s three decades ago.

    And what’s with numbers 11 and 14? One of the classic papers on software security is Smashing The Stack For Fun And Profit – from 1996.

    Numbers 3, 6, and 22 are web server vulnerabilities that are over 20 years old, and I’ve posted about them before.

    17, 19, and 21 have been known since before I was in this industry. Call it the 1980s, although it’s likely older.

    Number 2 is literally the Little Bobby Tables exploit…

  • “Cops Forced to Explain Why AI Generated Police Report Claimed Officer Transformed Into Frog.” (Hat tip: Commenter CayleyGraph2015.)
  • Ubisoft studio unionizes. Company lays them all off.
  • Sony PlayStation 5 boot keys have been leaked online, making it much easier to jailbreak systems.
  • Critical Drinker is cautiously optimistic about Avengers: Doomsday.
  • A new Peter Gabriel album is in the works.
  • Why the Austro-Hungarian army sucked in World War I.
  • Did ancient Roman soldiers carry a multi-tool?
  • Philly weirdo steals 100 skeletons from graveyard. That’s taking your Halloween LARPing too far…
  • “I don’t know if you know this, but all the presidents in South America, they’re free. You can just go take them.”
  • “Tim Walz Retiring To Spend More Time In Prison‬.”
  • “Trump Has Delta Force Operators Tell Maduro ‘You’re Fired.'”
  • “Trump To Choose Next Venezuelan President In Inaugural Season Of ‘El Aprendiz.'”
  • Trump Leads SEAL Team To Capture Rogue Dictator Gavin Newsom.”
  • “Aides Tell Disappointed Trump That Maduro And Mamdani Are Different People.”
  • “Democrats Once Again Threaten Civil War To Stop Republicans From Taking Away Their Slave Laborers.”
  • “Democrats Confused Why Venezuelans Cheering Downfall Of Nice, Warm Collectivism.”
  • “Anthropologists Discover Uncontacted Tribe In Remote Area Of IKEA.”
  • I’m still between jobs. Feel free to hit the tip jar if you’re so inclined.





    Is Iran Losing Control Of Kurds and Lurs?

    Wednesday, January 7th, 2026

    A friend sent a video showing police joining protestors as a sign the regime was crumbling:

    Tiny problem: The city of Ilam is overwhelmingly Kurdish and very far from Tehran. So we can’t use Ilam as proof that the mullahs are on the brink of losing power, as much as that is a consummation devoutly to be wished.

    But it’s an interesting data point, as is Kanal 13’s video on the Islamic regime losing control of Abdanan as well:

    And wouldn’t you know it, Abdanan is another Kurdish city in western Iran.

    It looks like the mullahs have a Kurdish problem. Or, more specifically, the mullahs can no longer repress the Kurdish problem they’ve always had.

    But it’s not just the Kurds! Take a look at this BBC report on where mass protests against the Islamic regime have broken out.

    Notice how heavy protests are in the western part of the country:

    Those clashes mapped in the upper, western part of the country are probably majority Kurds. But not the ones in the southwestern part of the country. Those are Lurs.

    No, not that one.

    You may not have heard of the Lurs, because they haven’t played a significant role in the war against the Islamic State, or any of the various other Iraqi and Syrian civil wars, the way the Kurds have. They’re an Iranian ethnic minority with their own language, and while they’re also Shia, they have a lot of syncretic elements from Yarsanism and Zoroastrianism, so naturally the mullahs consider them heretical.

    So while having the Kurdish and Lur areas of the country rise up against the Islamic Republic isn’t necessarily a sign of the regime’s immediate demise, it does present a unique challenge to it. Right now, the regime probably needs all its military and security forces to keep a lid on Tehran and adjacent areas, and likely doesn’t have any to spare to bring restive western areas to heel.

    Dictatorships with significant minority populations inside their country either need to repress them or buy them off. Vladimir Putin has used both approaches with the Chechens. With its currency in freefall, Iran is too broke and overextended to pay them off, but will be hard-pressed to scrounge up enough muscle to repress them, having to play whack-a-mole with outbreaks of resistance across the country.

    And the longer the Kurds and Lurs stay free of Tehran, the more difficult and painful it will be to bring them to heel, even if the mullahs survive the most recent uprising.