Days 1 and 2 of Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion were filled with so much dramatic news and high value targets that it was hard to keep up. Day 3 is a bit less dramatic, just more U.S. and Israel strike packets hitting targets in the country with essential impunity. And some of those targets (like border posts and police stations) seem to be tertiary targets.
So here’s another round up news. I think all the tweets are from the Suchomimus Discord.
In what has to be the greatest hack since the beeper attack, the ingenious Israelis have had their cyber guys at work again and busted into the regime’s version of The Hallow app for Islamic Religious Fundamentalists.
Why is this important?
It’s state-sponsored, and everyone gets it.
So now, instead of saying ‘Allahu ackbar,’ the prayer app is telling Iranians across the country, ‘Hang in there – WE ARE COMING..’
Years before the air strike that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Israeli intelligence had been quietly mapping the daily rhythms of Tehran.
According to reporting by the Financial Times, nearly all of the Iranian capital’s traffic cameras had been hacked years earlier, their footage encrypted and transmitted to Israeli servers. One camera angle near Pasteur Street, close to Khamenei’s compound, allowed analysts to observe the routines of bodyguards and drivers: where they parked, when they arrived and whom they escorted.
That data was fed into complex algorithms that built what intelligence officials call a “pattern of life,” detailed profiles including addresses, work schedules and, crucially, which senior officials were being protected and transported. The surveillance stream was one of hundreds feeding Israel’s intelligence system, which combines signals interception from Unit 8200, human assets recruited by the Mossad and large-scale data analysis by military intelligence.
The result was Ali Khamenei and company getting express tickets to the afterlife.
— Babak Taghvaee – The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1) March 2, 2026
Border post strikes:
NEW: Israeli jets have begun striking border guard positions along the Iraq-Iran frontier in what appears to be an effort to weaken Iranian control over the region and potentially clear a path for armed Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in Iraq to move back into Iran. pic.twitter.com/srj7CWrGWr
#BREAKING: All detainees held at the Central Prison of (Kurdish town of) Marivan (Mariwan) were released shortly after Israeli and U.S. fighter jets bombed military and intelligence facilities in the city, according to information received by Hengaw. The development occurred on… pic.twitter.com/nPKpTKWoRa
— Wladimir van Wilgenburg (@vvanwilgenburg) March 2, 2026
The American military says it struck Iranian naval drone carrier IRIS Shahid Bagheri during the opening strikes on Iran on Saturday.
“The Iranian regime’s false messaging machine continues to falsely claim that it has sunk a US aircraft carrier. The only carrier that has been hit is the Shahid Bagheri, an Iranian drone carrier,” the US Central Command says.
“US forces struck the ship within hours of launching Operation Epic Fury,” CENTCOM adds.
If it wasn’t clear from yesterday’s roundup, it appears that a whole lot of Islamic Republic of Iran leaders were physically meeting at Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s bunker in Tehran when the successful decapitation strike was carried out as part of Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion. The operations are still ongoing, and here are some news updates.
“‘All’ of [Ali Khamenei’s] likely successors are ‘probably dead’ following US-Israeli strikes.”
Mick Mulvaney, former Trump OMB head and Chief of Staff: “A high risk, high reward type of operation.”
A “once in a lifetime opportunity” to both end the nuclear program and effect regime change. “All the [Iranian] senior leadership gathered together at one place at one time.”
The daylight attack must have meant we had really solid intel on the regime meeting. Most of our Middle East strikes happen at night during a new moon. “An opportunity they simply couldn’t pass up.”
“All of [Ali Khamenei’s] likely successors are probably dead as well.”
“The chances of getting a pro-Western, pro-American regime in Iran were as high as it ever was going to be.”
John Bolton was lamenting that these actions weren’t taken six or seven years ago, but the situation on the ground now is very different. “Everything has to come together at the same time for this to work.”
“This can’t be a forever war.”
Taking out the mullahs is “a step toward peace.”
New Guy steps into the leadership crosshairs. “Iranian Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref informed officials of plans to have him take charge of the nation during wartime, according to a report from the Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA) published on social media late Saturday night. There was no explicit note of President Masoud Pezeshkian’s ability to carry out presidential duties.”
Simon Whistler covers the strikes:
Much of this covers information included here yesterday, but here are a few new tidbits.
Whistler states Iran is claiming they hit Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. LiveUAMap shows a strike against Prince Sultan Air Base, which is over a 100 miles from Riyadh. I mean, they’re both in central Saudi Arabia, but, eh.
In Yemen, Houthis threaten retaliation. Nothing yet.
The gulf states are plenty pissed at Iran tossing drones and missiles at them.
Russia issued a single proforma condemnation of U.S. attacks. China, on the other hand, hasn’t even done that.
A lot of Chinese MilTech deals were supposedly in the works when things kicked off, but it looks like very little (if any) actually made it to Iran.
Suchomimus video the first:
“It is quite telling that [Khamenei]’s death is being celebrated on the streets.”
Khamenei was likely killed in the opening strike. “A few sources are now saying it was Israel that hit this.”
“Iran isn’t showing any signs of giving up. Well, these could just be the last temper tantrum of the finished regime. The generals and remaining politicians lashing out knowing their time is over and that a surrender is inevitable and just trying to inflict damage.”
Suchomimus sees regime change as unlikely without “boots on the ground.”
Suchomimus video the second, which is all damage assessment:
One Iranian frigate hit, but two more showing no signs of damage.
Bandar Abbas radar site hit. Bandar Abbas is the port city directly north of the Strait of Hormuz.
Four MiG-29 fighters destroyed out of 30 in service.
Israel took out a Basij installation in northern Tehran, they being the hated Iranian religious police. The video shows four large buildings all exploding in a matter of seconds. “Iran’s air defense is completely ineffective here.”
Iran’s counterstrikes have had some limited success. In Kuwait “Ali al-Salim air base was hit.” The image shows smoke rising up from three different points, one evidently from a fuel storage strike. “One of Iran’s most successful strikes to date.” Plus a car park and a support facility.
Iran also hit Erbil air base in Iraq, where a large fire was seen burning. No information yet on what was hit.
Iran also hit Al-Udeid air base in Qatar. “This is the largest American base in the Middle East.” Videos show Patriot intercepting Iranian vehicles, but also one miss and one Patriot interceptor wandering off course and hitting the ground.
I see Tomahawks, F-18s and F-35s, and a lot of Iranian targets going boom. And other American assets are poised to join the action:
B-2s will likely show up tonight, making direct attacks on key targets in a way no other platform can. Yes this could include MOPs, but also lots of JDAMs against less fortified targets. They can achieve massive effects in a single sortie. One B-2 can carry 80 500lb JDAMs. Entire… pic.twitter.com/d0ztfmHYVN
TAMPA, Fla. – As of 9:30 am ET, March 1, three U.S. service members have been killed in action and five are seriously wounded as part of Operation Epic Fury.
Several others sustained minor shrapnel injuries and concussions — and are in the process of being…
🚫Iran’s IRGC claims to have struck USS Abraham Lincoln with ballistic missiles. LIE. ✅The Lincoln was not hit. The missiles launched didn’t even come close. The Lincoln continues to launch aircraft in support of CENTCOM’s relentless campaign to defend the American people by… pic.twitter.com/AjaeHMemtA
Plus President Trump was stating that Iranian retaliation was less than expected.
Also this: “Imagery circulating points to Iranian attacks in the vicinity of France’s naval base in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates.” In other news, there’s a French naval base in Abu Dhabi…
Beware of Astroturf protesters. “CCP-Linked NGO Network Prepares “Emergency Protests” In US After Trump’s Iran Strikes Jeopardize Oil Flows To China.”
Planned demonstrations branded “Hands Off Iran” or “Stop The War On Iran” are scheduled to take place this afternoon in major cities across the U.S. From New York to Los Angeles, left-wing organizers have circulated digital flyers, coordinated social media blasts, and activated email lists urging supporters to mobilize within hours of the announcement. This activation alert for the protest-industrial complex occurred shortly after the Department of War’s “Operation Epic Furry” began in Iran.
To the average person, this afternoon’s protests may look like a groundswell of outrage over the U.S. strikes on Iran, especially given that the Trump administration campaigned on no new foreign wars. But the speed, uniform messaging, and coordinated national footprint suggest something highly more organized – and familiar for readers, as we’ve diligently followed the activities of the protest-industrial complex.
This is the same mobilization network that has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to move tens of thousands of social justice warriors into the streets in under 12 hours.
Earlier this year, that same protest infrastructure powered nationwide pro-Maduro demonstrations almost immediately after developments in Venezuela made national headlines. In the months prior, overlapping coalitions were instrumental in organizing the anti-Israel encampments at Columbia University and other campuses, as well as anti-ICE demonstrations in Los Angeles and other sanctuary cities. The causes shift. The slogans change. The logistical infrastructure – or the machine that makes this spark – remains the same.
What we are witnessing is not a loose collection of anti-war activists or 1970s-style hippies responding independently to global events. It is a coordinated ecosystem of dark-money funded nonprofits, advocacy groups, campus organizations, and ideological networks that can rapidly repurpose whatever geopolitical flashpoint dominates the news cycle. From the George Floyd riots to pro-Palestine protests to anti-Tesla protests to anti-Trump protests and anti-Elon Musk protests to anti-DOGE protests to anti-ICE protests/riots, these movements are not dedicated to a single issue. They are part of omni-cause mobilizers, sowing chaos deep within the nation’s core.
Whether the banner reads “Free Palestine,” “Hands Off Venezuela,” “Abolish ICE,” or now “Hands Off Iran,” the same names frequently appear on sponsorship lists. The same fiscal sponsors provide infrastructure. The same activist pipelines appear.
This brings us to far-left billionaire Neville Roy Singham, whom The New York Times recently described as “known as a socialist benefactor of far-left causes” and as someone who “works closely with the Chinese government media machine and is financing its propaganda worldwide.”
Singham’s network, shortly after Operation Epic Furry began, announced on X “New York City Emergency Protest” to “Stop The war On Iran.”
“The U.S. and Israel are carrying out an unprovoked, illegal bombing campaign on Iran. This war serves no one but a tiny elite and oil executives and is a continuation of more than two years of genocide in Palestine and US-Israeli aggressions throught the region,” the People’s Forum, a Manhattan far-left non-profit also linked to Singham, wrote on X.
Other left-wing groups on the flyer tied to Singham’s network include the ANSWER Coalition and CODEPINK. Also on the list are the Democratic Socialists of America, American Muslims for Palestine, the National Iranian American Council, the Palestinian Youth Movement, Black Alliance for Peace, and 50501.
November 4, 1979 — almost 47 years ago — Iran seized the American embassy in Tehran and held its staff hostage. Ever since then, American presidents have struggled with what to do.
Jimmy Carter temporized for many months, even as ABC’s newly created Nightline — a nighttime news show created specially to cover the hostage crisis — opened every night with “America held hostage, day XXX.” His wife, First Lady Rosalynn Carter, finally prodded him to do something. The “something” turned out to be a shambolic rescue mission that ended in disaster.
President Reagan intimidated the mullahs a bit, but never seriously retaliated for the Beirut barracks bombing that killed over 200 Marines along with over a score of other service personnel. George H.W. Bush invaded Iraq but left the mullahs largely alone. Bill Clinton did nothing of substance. George W. Bush had a chance to bring the Iranians to heel after the conquest of Iraq, but inexplicably failed to press his advantage. Barack Obama was, basically, complicit in their nuclear program, to the point of famously sending them pallets of cash totaling over a billion dollars.
President Trump, on the other hand, killed General Soleimani and told other Iranian leaders that they could be next. And now they are next.
So what have we learned, and what’s likely to happen in the future?
Well, first, with the capture of Maduro and now this, we’ve learned that our military can do things no one else can. We seized a leader of a hostile nation from his largest military base and brought him to custody without losing a single American life. Now we’ve killed the single biggest threat to American interests in the Mideast, along with much of his senior leadership, again without losing a single American life.
Why didn’t we do this before? And why could we do it now? The reason we can do it now is mostly leadership. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth quickly prioritized precision and lethality in the military; President Trump was willing to use the military in ways prior presidents were not.
Why didn’t we do this before? Part of that is because the foreign policy establishment, like the domestic policy establishment, doesn’t exist to solve problems. It exists to manage those problems in ways that keep its members cushily employed. To, in Myres McDougal’s words, “maintain tensions at a level short of unacceptable violence.”
Trump, on the other hand, wants to solve things, even if it involves inflicting unacceptable violence on the enemy. Also, he regards our enemies as actual enemies, not as “foreign colleagues” or “partners in peace.” To quote author Keith Laumer, “there’s nothing as peaceful as a dead troublemaker.” Khamenei is now peaceful.
In fact, Trump’s approach across the board, which has brought him success after success in his first 13 months back in office, is to solve problems the way the guys in the bar say they would do it. Too much illegal immigration? Close the border and deport the illegals. Problems with Iran? Kill their leaders and encourage a revolution. Venezuela shipping drugs and gangs to the U.S.? Capture their leader and encourage his successor to cooperate or share his fate. You can just do things.
The thing is, though, that there’s a subtlety in this approach. Just doing things turns out to work. But if you take a step back from these actions of Trump’s, the big picture shows a pretty coherent strategy. Trump wants to weaken China without going to war with China. He has now cut off two major suppliers of oil to the PRC, which produces hardly any oil of its own. (It’s worse than that, because China wasn’t paying for that oil with dollars, and now it will need dollars to buy oil elsewhere.) That applies a squeeze to an already squeezed CCP, and will make Xi’s position, domestically and internationally, weaker. Also the military excellence recently displayed has to inspire second, third, and fourth thoughts about invading Taiwan.
Trump’s tactics typically have two characteristics: He goes after his opponents’ source of sustenance (usually that means money, but not always) and he accomplishes more than one thing at a time. In neutralizing Iran, Trump accomplishes a lot of things. First, of course, he neutralizes a major hostile regional threat.
But second, he cuts the ground out from under what’s left of Hamas and Hezbollah. He also shuts off the pipeline of cash that was being used to bribe politicians and journalists in Europe (the Iranians have basically admitted that they do that) and support various NGOs and the like that serve anti-American and anti-Israeli ends. Iran has been a major sponsor of terrorism around the world; that will end.
With Iran gone (and India, thanks to tariffs, eager to be on our team) the threat of the BRICS has been sharply reduced. Brazil under Lula isn’t friendly, but isn’t a power house. Russia and China don’t like us but China needs oil and Russia is broke and mired in an endless and ruinous war of its own devising.
With Iranians free to say what they think of the mullahs’ regime, he also delegitimizes the left’s narrative that fundamentalist Islam somehow has some sort of anti-colonial virtue. In fact, the mullahs ran Iran as a Persian colony of an Arab ideology. The Iranian public is well aware of this, and will be saying that a lot.
And if he’s able to see a new pro-American government in Iran (distinctly likely) we’ll have a regional ally that will encourage the Arab states, currently friendly to us and Israel out of fear of Iran, to remain friendly to us and Israel out of a different sort of fear of Iran.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian claims he’s alive and in charge:
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is alive, stating this morning on state-run television that the Interim Leadership Council is now operational and has assumed constitutional control of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Pezeshkian adds that, “We will continue the path of the Leader… pic.twitter.com/QIhDTeRxub
Power struggle between him and Mohammad Reza Aref, or just confusion?
Iranian foreign minister is suggesting that no one is actually in charge, that the chain of command has broken down and the military is just sort of acting on general vibes:
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi:
What happened in Oman was not our choice.
We have already told our Armed Forces to be careful about the targets they choose.
Our military units are now, in fact, independent and somewhat isolated, and they are acting based on general… pic.twitter.com/g0l9Te2HNa
Which is not what you want to hear less than 48 hours into a shooting war…
Mojtaba Khamenei, Ayatollah heir apparent, is apparently dead as well.
Iranian media: Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has long been discussed as one of the potential successors, has been eliminated. pic.twitter.com/6Fy8mkHe47
That four building complex previously described as Basij headquarters is here described as “Sarallah Headquarters” or “security crisis management command center of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Tehran”:
Israeli Air Force strikes that hit Tehran this morning targeted a complex the IDF described as the “headquarters of the terror regime.”
Now technically, the Basij is a subset of the IRGC, so that may be where the confusion comes in. Or the complex could be both. Google Maps isn’t helping me out here…
More of Iran’s classic aircraft destroyed:
Video published this morning by the Israeli Air Force showing the targeting and destruction of a two awaiting to takeoff F-4 Phantom IIs and an F-5 Tiger II with the Iranian Air Force, during strikes on Tabriz Air Base in the East Azerbaijan Province on Northwestern Iran. pic.twitter.com/n8NkNhGjle
Despite claims of not being involved, UK fighters are reportedly flying CAP over the Persian Gulf:
British Royal Air Force Typhoons officially started flying combat air patrols over the Persian Gulf today, have already shot down multiple Iranian drones headed towards Qatar. pic.twitter.com/hQ7WOiZYjr
"Iran’s chief of army staff and defense minister were killed in an airstrike targeting a meeting of the country’s defense council, Iranian state television reported Sunday.
Gen. Abdol Rahim Mousavi and Defense Minister Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh were…
“Gen. Abdol Rahim Mousavi and Defense Minister Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh were killed at the meeting alongside the head of Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard and security adviser Ali Shamkhani.”
❗️Iranian state media confirmed the killing of seven senior Armed Forces commanders in the US-Israeli strikes. Those killed include Supreme Leader's office chief Mohammad Shirazi, his deputy Akbar Ebrahimzadeh, Armed Forces intelligence deputy Saleh Asadi, logistics deputy Mohsen… pic.twitter.com/6ptzq6r06Q
“Iranian state media confirmed the killing of seven senior Armed Forces commanders in the US-Israeli strikes. Those killed include Supreme Leader’s office chief Mohammad Shirazi, his deputy Akbar Ebrahimzadeh, Armed Forces intelligence deputy Saleh Asadi, logistics deputy Mohsen Darreh Baghi, police intelligence chief Gholamreza Rezaeian, Armed Forces operations planning chief Bahram Hosseini Motlaq, and Armed Forces logistics chief Hasanali Tajik.”
More regime buildings go boom:
Iran's Ministry of Intelligence (VAJA/Vezarat-e Ettela'at Jomhuri-ye Eslami-ye Iran) has been struck in central Tehran. #Iranpic.twitter.com/aQjeTwoed4
U.S. President Donald Trump announced Sunday that nine Iranian naval ships have been sunk as part of combat operations against Iran.
“I have just been informed that we have destroyed and sunk 9 Iranian Naval Ships, some of them relatively large and important,” Trump wrote in a post on X, adding that Iran’s naval headquarters has been “largely destroyed” in a different attack.
“We are going after the rest — They will soon be floating at the bottom of the sea, also!” Trump wrote.
U.S. Central Command officials said earlier Sunday that an Iranian Jamaran-class corvette was struck by U.S. forces at the beginning of Operation Epic Fury.
“The ship is currently sinking to the bottom of the Gulf of Oman at a Chah Bahar pier,” the statement reads. “As the president said, members of Iran’s armed forces, IRGC and police ‘must lay down your weapons.’ Abandon ship.”
❗️A suspected strike has hit the British RAF Akrotiri base in Limassol, Cyprus, with a loud explosion heard in the area, alarms sounding at the base, and aircraft scrambled, Israeli Channel 14 journalist Hallel Bitton Rosen reported. #Iranpic.twitter.com/xB6mvhrbFt
Result: Craven jihad apologist Keir Starmer grows something vaguely resembling a spine and gives the U.S. permission to use Cyprus base for “defensive purposes.” With so many Middle East bases to chose from, I’m not sure the US actually has any assets they can usefully deploy there, but still.
Clarification: Here Starmer makes clear that “defensive purposes” includes letting American assets use British bases, including those in the Persian Gulf, to hunt Iranian missile launch sites and storage facilities:
Since the Islamic Republic of Iran refuses to give up its nuclear weapons program or free its own people, the liberation of Iran has begun.
The United States and Israel launched long-awaited strikes on Iran early Saturday morning, as President Trump vowed to destroy their missile capabilities, “annihilate” their navy, and ensure the nation never obtains a nuclear weapon.
Trump, in a video message released overnight that made clear the goal is regime change, urged the Iranian people to “take over your government” when the operation is finished.
“The hour of your freedom is at hand,” Trump said. “This will be, probably, your only chance for generations. . . . This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.”
America and Israel reportedly plan to carry out several days of attacks, and Trump cautioned that while the administration is taking every step to minimize risks to American personnel, “we may have casualties.”
He added, “We’re doing this for the future, and it is a noble mission.” He urged Iranian security forces to lay down their weapons in exchange for immunity, or face “certain death.”
Snip.
During his State of the Union address, Trump began to make a broader case for military action against Iran, citing, as he did in his video remarks released overnight, the regime’s attacks over the past half-century against U.S. personnel in the region.
You can only tug on Superman’s cape for so long.
The United States is calling it Operation Epic Fury, while Israel is going with Lion’s Roar.
Suchomimus has compiled footage of the strikes.
Some highlights:
A strike against “Supreme Leader” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s house. The Iranian woman recording the aftermath of the strike sounds “absolutely delighted.” It was hit in broad daylight, indicating how little American and Israeli fear Iran’s degraded, Russian-sourced air defense systems.
A salvo of at least 30 tomahawk cruise missiles launched from the Mediterranean flying over Iraq en-route to targets in Iran.
Iran is (naturally) launching retaliatory rockets at Israel.
One of the U.S./Israeli strike targets is Iranian Defense Minister Amir Hatami, who has been reported killed.
Second Suchomimus video:
Highlights:
U.S. naval base in Bahrain hit by retaliatory Iranian missiles. “This seems like it may have been a waste of missiles because reports are saying that this base was largely cleared out prior to this. So America evacuated much of the imported equipment and troops and ships from here to a safer place. So there was nothing of importance here.” And geolocation shows that Iran might actually have hit a nearby mosque.
A possible successful strike in Dubai.
Also Iranian missiles being successfully intercepted over Abu Dhabi. Likely target was Al Dhafra Air Base, but nothing seems to have been hit there.
But a possible successful strike on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, though its not clear what, if anything, was hit.
“Two places hit by the US are Iranian naval bases Asaluyeh and Chabahar…Asaluyeh is a major target. This is known to be an underground storage complex for the Iranian Navy in which speedboats and coastal defense missiles are stored here.”
“Also confirmed hit was the headquarters of the IRGC, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, who are a major branch of the Iranian armed forces.” This is near Damavand, an underground complex that was reportedly hit with bunker buster bombs.
Israel reportedly hit Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i, head of Iran’s judiciary courts.
A quick LiveUAMap snapshot of in-theater action:
President Trump’s announcement of the strikes:
“A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran.”
“Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating eminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people.”
“Its menacing activities directly endanger the United States, our troops, our bases overseas, and our allies throughout the world. For 47 years, the Iranian regime has chanted death to America and waged an unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder, targeting the United States, our troops, and the innocent people in many, many countries.”
He covers the regime’s role in the Iranian Hostage Crisis, the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing, and the 2000 attack on the USS Cole.
“Iranian forces killed and maimed hundreds of American service members in Iraq. The regime’s proxies have continued to launch countless attacks against American forces stationed in the Middle East in recent years, as well as US naval and commercial vessels in international shipping lands. It’s been mass terror and we’re not going to put up with it any longer.”
“it was Iran’s proxy Hamas that launched the monstrous October 7th attacks on Israel, slaughtering more than 1,000 innocent people, including 46 Americans, while taking 12 of our citizens hostage. It was brutal, something like the world has never seen before.”
“Iran is the world’s number one state sponsor of terror, and just recently killed tens of thousands of its own citizens on the street as they protested.”
“It has always been the policy of the United States, in particular my administration, that this terrorist regime can never have a nuclear weapon. I’ll say it again. They can never have a nuclear weapon.”
“They’ve rejected every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambitions, and we can’t take it anymore.”
“Just imagine how emboldened this regime would be if they ever had and actually were armed with nuclear weapons as a means to deliver their message.”
“For these reasons, the United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests.”
“We are going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground. It will be totally again obliterated.”
“We are going to annihilate their navy.”
“We are going to ensure that the region’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world and attack our forces and no longer use their IEDs, or roadside bombs as they are sometimes called, to so gravely wound and kill thousands and thousands of people including many Americans.”
“And we will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. It’s a very simple message. They will never have a nuclear weapon.”
“This regime will soon learn that no one should challenge the strength and might of the United States armed forces.”
“My administration has taken every possible step to minimize the risk to US personnel in the region. Even so, and I do not make this statement lightly, the Iranian regime seeks to kill. The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and we may have casualties. That often happens in war.”
“But we’re doing this not for now. We’re doing this for the future. And it is a noble mission. We pray for every service member as they selflessly risk their lives to ensure that Americans and our children will never be threatened by a nuclear armed Iran.”
“We ask God to protect all of our heroes in harm’s way. And we trust that, with his help, the men and women of the armed forces will prevail. We have the greatest in the world, and they will prevail.”
“To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces, and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity, or in the alternative, face certain death. So, lay down your arms, you will be treated fairly with total immunity, or you will face certain death.”
“Finally, to the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere.”
“When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations. For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want. So let’s see how you respond.”
“America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.”
“May God bless the brave men and women of America’s armed forces. May God bless the United States of America. May God bless you all. Thank you.”
Update 2: The Taliban call on Muslims worldwide…not to support Iran.
🚨 🇦🇫 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 – 𝗧𝗔𝗟𝗜𝗕𝗔𝗡 𝗧𝗛𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗧𝗘𝗡𝗦 𝗜𝗥𝗔𝗡𝗜𝗔𝗡 𝗥𝗘𝗚𝗜𝗠𝗘
Taliban leader Abdul Hamid Khorasani says that "Israel and Iran are one coin" and called upon Muslims worldwide to stay vigilant and not support the "infidel regime of Iran" pic.twitter.com/ndiFIJLFk9
I don’t think many people had that on their bingo card…
Update 3: Peter Zeihan weighs in, and we didn’t even have to wait a week:
He says all the Iranian drone and missile facilities were hit, and that the Israelis were ones hitting Iranian leadership. But no sign they’ve hit the Shahed production facilities…yet. And no sign of attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
His military sources are generally better than his political sources, but several grains of salt are usually in order anyway.
Update 4: Power plant on Kharg Island, the terminal for the vast majority of Iran’s oil exports, hit:
Kharg Island is Iran’s jugular.
80-90% of Iran’s crude exports flow through this supertanker terminal in the Persian Gulf. No Kharg, no oil revenue. No oil revenue, no regime. Every war plan, every sanctions package, every naval deployment in the Gulf orbits this one fact. https://t.co/E0mVmlC9eapic.twitter.com/mRuT3gTY1s
Update 5: We’re hitting Iran with clones of their own Shahed drones:
CENTCOM's Task Force Scorpion Strike – for the first time in history – is using one-way attack drones in combat during Operation Epic Fury. These low-cost drones, modeled after Iran's Shahed drones, are now delivering American-made retribution. 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/VYdjiECKDT
Despite some initial debate, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed during the airstrikes Saturday morning, Israeli officials report.
“Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated in an Israeli strike on Tehran, with his body found under the rubble caused by an Israeli airstrike, senior Israeli officials were informed on Saturday evening,” the Jerusalem Post reports. “Documentation of Khamenei’s body was reportedly shown to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.”
Update 7: Suchomimus has footage of Khamenei’s flattened compound.
Probably more on this video later. It’s Saturday and I’ve got Other Stuff that needs doing…
Update 8: Via Stephen Green at Instapundit, some Strategery:
Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, Greenland, Panama…it’s all interconnected and it all points to China.
As U.S. energy ramps up, and China is deprived of subsidized oil, subsidized shipping channels, freedom of navigation through sovereign waters and allies that can cause the U.S.… https://t.co/K5cmCg8xcj
Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, Greenland, Panama…it’s all interconnected and it all points to China.
As U.S. energy ramps up, and China is deprived of subsidized oil, subsidized shipping channels, freedom of navigation through sovereign waters and allies that can cause the U.S. problems…their global position diminishes substantially and their costs of doing business skyrocket.
Venezuela and Iran account for something like 20% of China’s oil imports and they’re getting an insane deal on it. China has a huge problem if that oil goes away.
You’d be forgiven for thinking Trump’s foreign policy seems random and chaotic, but it’s actually one of the most focused and (thus far) well executed foreign policies in at least 2 generations.
Another would-be Trump assassin dirtnapped, Mexico burns, more leftwing fraud uncovered, disturbing news of taxpayer-funded child mutilation here and horrific rape overlooked in the UK, and some financial heavyweights are shedding their irrational social justice policies. It’s the Friday LinkSwarm!
I went out and early voted today, and voting was very heavy. (I was planning on going Thursday, but that the day the guy dropped off my new (used) dryer.) Because of redistricting, no voter registration cards were sent out, so just vote using one of several forms of official ID. (Gee, what an easy system! Just think how easy things could be if congressional Republicans made that their top priority!)
An armed man was shot and killed by the Secret Service in the early hours of the morning after unlawfully entering the secure perimeter at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago in Florida.
Austin Tucker Martin, 21, was holding a shotgun and a fuel can as he tried to enter Trump’s Palm Beach residence near the north side around 1.30am on Sunday, the Secret Service said.
President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump were in Washington, DC, last night attending the Governors’ Dinner.
Two Secret Service agents and one deputy from the Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office ordered him to drop his weapons.
Things got pretty spicy in Mexico. “Mexico Kills a Drug Kingpin, and the Cartels Set the Country Ablaze.”
The good news is the cartel kingpin, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, a.k.a. “El Mencho,” is no longer with us. From the New York Times:
Mexican security forces on Sunday captured Mr. Oseguera in Tapalpa, a town of about 20,000, in the western coastal state of Jalisco, where his cartel was founded and based, the government said in a statement. Mr. Oseguera was injured in the operation and died while in transport to Mexico City for medical attention, according to the government. At least nine other cartel members were killed.
Reuters reports the raid was a result of combining U.S. intelligence-gathering with Mexican law enforcement:
The U.S. official, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, did not offer further details on any information that the U.S.-military-led task force may have offered Mexican authorities. The official stressed the raid itself was a Mexican military operation.
A former U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity without referring specifically to the task force, said the U.S. compiled a detailed target package for El Mencho and provided it to the Mexican government for its operation.
This detailed dossier included information provided by U.S. law enforcement and U.S. intelligence, the former official said.
The former official added El Mencho was very high, if not at the top, of a list of U.S. targets in Mexico.
Virginia Democrats are advancing two bills to extend deadlines for receiving and counting mail-in absentee ballots several days after Election Day.
Delegate Adele McClure and State Senator Barbara Favola, who represent Arlington, have introduced companion bills, HB 82 and SB 58, which will extend the deadline for counting absentee ballots in Virginia from noon to 5 p.m. on the third day after Election Day, reported ARL Now.
These bills are being presented as the White House seeks to curb voter fraud in Democrat-run states, particularly in regard to mail-in voting, which President Donald Trump claims is prone to widespread fraud.
Trump has vowed to sign an executive order to eliminate mail-in ballots and electronic voting machines ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, allowing absentee ballots only for the seriously ill and military personnel overseas to restore election integrity.
“Mail-in ballots are corrupt. You can never have a real democracy with mail-in ballots,” Trump said on social media.
McClure and Favola said that their legislation to allow mail-in ballots to be counted well after the election will address delays caused by the U.S. Postal Service.
In June, a Pennsylvania woman appeared in federal court in connection with a $1 million-plus home care fraud scheme. Hemal Patel was charged with wire fraud, aggravated identity theft, and conspiracy to violate the federal anti-kickback statute. The 59-year-old Bucks County resident, according to the U.S Attorney’s Office for Pennsylvania’s Eastern District, pocketed payments for referring patients to home care agencies. Patel and others schemed to fraudulently bill Medicaid for ghost home care services.
The scam targeted Pennsylvania’s Community HealthChoices, which uses Medicaid funds to pay for home- and community-based personal assistance services for individuals with disabilities to help keep them out of nursing homes, according to court filings. Patel was one of hundreds of people charged in the Department of Justice’s National Health Care Fraud Takedown, the largest sweep of its kind covering some $14.6 billion in intended Medicaid losses.
Payouts to personal assistance services have ballooned nationally. Between 2018 and 2024, Medicaid cash in the category grew by 144 percent, from $9.6 billion to almost $23.5 billion. But payments have absolutely exploded in Pennsylvania — by more than 10,000 percent over the period, according to an analysis of new data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). The massive data dump, reviewed by public spending tracker Open the Books, shows Medicaid-funded payments to Pennsylvania’s personal assistance services shot up from $5.6 million in 2018 to $583 million in 2024.
More homeless industrial complex fraud: “S.F. Homeless Nonprofit CEO Charged with Nine Felonies for Allegedly Misappropriating over $1M in Public Funds.”
The former CEO of a San Francisco-based homelessness nonprofit was charged Monday with nine felony counts after allegedly misappropriating more than $1.2 million in public funds.
Gwendolyn Westbrook, 71, is the former CEO of the United Council of Human Services. Charges against Westbrook include misappropriation of public funds, grand theft, and filing four years of false tax returns.
According to prosecutors, Westbrook misappropriated the $1.2 million through unauthorized payments to herself, improper cash withdrawals, and fraudulent reimbursements from 2019 to 2023. Prosecutors also claim Westbrook directly stole $91,000 from the United Council of Human Services.
Things that make you go “Hmmmm“: “FBI Raids Los Angeles School District Headquarters, Home of Superintendent.”
Federal agents executed search warrants Wednesday at the headquarters of the Los Angeles Unified School District and the home of Superintendent Albert Carvalho, significantly escalating the Trump administration’s fight against the nation’s second-largest school district.
The FBI conducted the raids on the 24th floor of LAUSD’s headquarters and Carvalho’s home in LA’s San Pedro neighborhood, a vibrant waterfront area, according to Fox 11. The nature of the investigation is currently unclear. LAUSD and Carvalho have yet to address the situation.
FBI agents could be seen going in and out of Carvalho’s home carrying items in boxes. Carvalho has been LAUSD superintendent since 2022 and was re-appointed to the role this past September. The affidavit for the search warrants are currently under seal, so it is unknown if Carvalho is personally a target of the investigation.
Last week, the Trump administration moved to intervene in a civil rights lawsuit against LAUSD for alleged racial discrimination tied to a program that prioritized funding for schools with lower amounts of white students. The lawsuit was brought by the 1776 Foundation, a conservative group active in K-12 education policy and school board races.
The district has also clashed with the Trump administration over immigration enforcement efforts in the area.
The defining issue of our country, powerfully visualized in 20 seconds:
“If you agree with this statement, then stand up and show your support: The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens not illegal aliens."
Our inquiry panel has heard extensive and deeply distressing testimony from a survivor detailing prolonged and extreme abuse, exploitation, and trafficking beginning in childhood and continuing over a number of years across multiple locations in the United Kingdom.
The panel wishes to place on record that we regard this testimony with the utmost seriousness. The survivor has provided detailed, consistent, and specific evidence over an extended period of engagement with our inquiry. She will remain anonymous and she is safe. She has made it abundantly clear that she wants the country to know her story. This is her decision, and her decision alone. Elements of her account have been independently corroborated through presented documentation and vast evidence.
The panel is also aware of additional material and supporting information that strengthens the credibility of the survivor’s account and warrants urgent and comprehensive investigation by the relevant statutory authorities.
Given the gravity of the allegations, we have thought long and hard about whether to release the following information. We believe, as does she, that the public deserves to know the truth about the rape gangs.
The survivor’s violent gang rape and abuse began at the age of 12, she was raped multiple times per day over many years. The rapes were filmed and were used as blackmail. The survivor has stated that multiple police officers were active perpetrators – money was exchanged openly and this destroyed her ability and willingness to seek help. Police vehicles were used to traffic her and some of the abuse events were called “cop nights.”
The extreme pain she suffered included filmed torture in places called ‘red rooms’.
The torture included waterboarding and strangulation by rope. Distressingly, she was raped by a dog, filmed, and forced to rewatch the footage as the men placed bets.
The co-ordination of this specific type of abuse was predominantly perpetrated by Pakistani-heritage men.
Also this:
Our rape gang inquiry is only just starting to scratch the surface – there is so very much evil among us.
Do not kid yourselves. This is happening, now. Today. All over Britain. It is an organised criminal network of rape and slavery.
China’s fishing fleets are clearing the sea out. “The People’s Republic of China (PRC), having drained as much as she can from nearby seas, has decided to strip-mine life from the most remote corners of our shared oceans.”
So scared of your own population and your inability to keep them fed and employed ashore—today—that you will knowingly strip mine life from the world’s oceans, regardless of its impact on everyone—tomorrow.
Once an ecosystem is ripped out from its foundation, there is no guarantee it can recover. They don’t care. That will be someone else’s problem. No one will do anything, as they either lack the will, or they have been bought off.
How remote and how far down the food chain is the PRC willing to go? The wholesale harvest of krill in the Antartic is as difficult to imagine as it is to see, and as such is hard to get people’s attention. It is a foundation species. If you harvest it below a certain level, the entire ecosystem will collapse.
What they are doing in South American, though?
Here’s your video.
The red are Chinese fishing boats crossing to the other side of the Pacific, rushing right up to Peru’s EEZ, before switching off their AIS and entering Peru’s territorial waters. They are doing the same off the Galapagos and Argentina.
Sounds like China is the actual existential threat to global life greens liked to claim global warming was. (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
How many fingers, Winston? “Canadian tribunal fines man $750,000 for believing there are only two genders.”
“Deep penetration: Ukrainians spearhead Russian defenses in Huliaipole.”
The Ukrainian offensive near Huliaipole has developed a second axis, retaking still more territory from the Russian invaders.
This is a glorious story: Ukrainian covert cyber units set up a sting to secretly restore Starlink access to Russian units…as long as they “submit detailed information, including personal data, terminal identifiers, and geolocation coordinates.” Results: 2420 Russian control points droned and bombed.
I suppose I need to cover the weirdness of the 31st Texas congressional district race. “Congressman John Carter Faces Valentina Gomez, ‘ShamWow Guy’ in Crowded GOP Primary.” Carter was formerly my congressman until the 2020 redistricting.
Congressman John Carter (R-TX-31) is facing nine Republican challengers in the 2026 primary election for his seat, which he has held for 23 years.
Some of the contenders in the Republican primary have entered the race with unique backgrounds — including Offer Vince Shlomi, also known as the “Shamwow Guy” infomercial pitchman from the early 2000s, and social media sensation Valentina Gomez Noriega, formerly a candidate for Missouri secretary of state and best known for her unfiltered, brash tone in short videos posted online.
Other candidates in the crowded running include U.S. Army veterans William Abel, Steve Dowell, and Elvis Lossa; physician David Berry; Ed Ewald; entrepreneur and millionaire Abhiram Garapati; and businessman Raymond Hamden.
Shlomi has garnered nationwide attention after announcing his bid for CD 31, due to his familiar infomercial branding and signature voice. His campaign motto is “make America grow some balls again,” matching similar branding as seen from Gomez.
Carter is Texas’ third longest-serving member of the U.S. House of Representatives, having been the first member elected to the seat following the district’s creation through redistricting after the 2000 census. Carter cites the September 11 terrorist attacks as an event that encouraged him to run for Congress in 2002, thus leaving his prior role as district judge for the 277th District Court in Williamson County.
Carter currently serves as a member of the U.S. House Committee on Appropriations while also serving on both the Military Construction and Veterans Affairs Subcommittee and the Defense Subcommittee.
He’s been endorsed for re-election by both President Donald Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott.
The top three fundraisers per the end-of-year campaign fiscal reports in the Republican primary were Carter, Gomez, and Garapati. Carter came in with $114,252 raised and reported $462,022 in cash on hand (COH). Gomez followed the incumbent with $56,175 in receipts and $22,196 in COH, while Garapti touted raising $30,000 with $39,000 in COH.
Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates has admitted he had two affairs with Russian women while married to his now-ex-wife, Melinda French Gates, and issued a groveling apology for his links with convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
Gates, 70, told staffers at his foundation on Tuesday that he flew on a private plane with the disgraced financier and spent time with him in the US and abroad, but didn’t participate in any crime, according to the Wall Street Journal.
“I did nothing illicit. I saw nothing illicit,” Gates said in the town hall meeting. “To be clear, I never spent any time with the victims, the women around him.”
He lied about one thing. How do we know he’s not lying about all of it?
Speaking of Epstein: “World Economic Forum boss quits after review of Epstein links.”
The president and CEO of the World Economic Forum (WEF), Borge Brende, has resigned after a review into his links to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
The forum ordered an independent review into Brende over his ties to the disgraced financier following the release of Epstein files by the US Department of Justice.
Brende has acknowledged he dined with Epstein three times between 2018 and 2019 and communicated with him by email and text, but said he was “completely unaware” of his past criminal activity.
“Illinois official got more than $300K from trucking industry while his agency gave illegal licenses…Illinois Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias, a Democrat who is reportedly considering a run for Chicago mayor, is facing scrutiny over his role in improperly issuing CDL licenses after a series of high profile big rig crashes across the country.”
There were also fireworks after Middleton accused Roy of undermining a bill that would have imposed a national ban on transgender surgery for minors.
“Chip Roy had an amendment that would have allowed it to continue,” said Middleton. “It would have rewarded the transgender lobby; it would have rewarded Gavin Newsom and allowed these private transgender surgeries to continue in those blue states.”
Roy pushed back, saying the legislation was dead anyway but that his proposed amendment was to facilitate passage.
Days after the firm announced that they were scrapping DEI requirements for new board members, and six years after the death of George Floyd that ushered in institutionalized virtue-signaling, the bank’s head of DEI is leaving.
Megan Hogan, who’s been at the firm 12 years, is taking her shtick to Morgan Stanley according to Business Insider, which Hogan confirmed via email, telling the outlet that Morgan Stanley had extended “an amazing opportunity” to her in talent development.
She will report to Morgan’s head of talent development, Susan Reid, the firm’s global head of talent, and will begin in April.
The move comes after Goldman’s hard pivot away from DEI following Donald Trump’s second term – retooling its diversity program, known as One Million Black Women (oh god), a multibillion-dollar commitment to invest in black businesswomen and nonprofit leaders.
The bank also ended its requirement that companies it takes public have diverse boards, and stopped highlighting specific DEI targets in annual reports.
Hogan is being replaced by Lauren Uranker, another managing director who has been with the firm for 14 years who will become the new sole head of talent, development, engagement and management, according to the report.
But it’s not all good news.
Her mandate will be to concentrate on the transition to AI-supported work, team growth, and finding ways to keep top talent from fleeing.
Meet Karl Jacobson, the now-former police chief of New Haven, Connecticut. For virtually his entire career in police administration, he’s been a dedicated crusader against the pesky Second Amendment we mere mortals dare to exercise.
For years, this guy was a face of “gun violence” prevention, cozying up to anti-gun groups like Connecticut Against Gun Violence. He preached about treating gun ownership like a public health crisis, all while pushing programs to disarm the little people under the guise of safety. Because guns are icky and he has his.
But lo and behold, safety crusader Karl has been slapped with first-degree larceny charges for (allegedly) swiping almost a hundred grand in police department funds. Some of the money was for earmarked for…wait for it…youth programs for “at risk” kids. Thanks, Karl.
As with many of these big theft cases, there’s usually sex, drugs, or gambling behind the embezzlement. In this case, our fearless police chief was funding a gambling habit, racking up literally millions in wagers. Now the gun control crusader has been arrested, has resigned in disgrace and is facing prison.
Netflix isn’t getting Warner Brothers, as the Paramount Skydance offer was deemed superior. This is probably good news from both political and artistic standpoints, and may give movie theaters chances to survive longer.
Attorney General Ken Paxton announced Thursday that his office has reached a settlement with investment giant Vanguard, resolving part of Texas’ multistate lawsuit accusing major asset managers of manipulating the coal market through environmental investment strategies.
The agreement marks the first settlement in the case Paxton filed in 2024 against BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street, in which he alleged the firms conspired to suppress coal production in pursuit of environmental goals—actions he argued drove up electricity costs for consumers.
Under the deal, Vanguard will pay $29.5 million to the participating states and adopt new restrictions on how it uses its shareholder influence. Paxton’s office said Vanguard agreed not to pressure companies to adopt environmental, social, or governance (ESG) policies that could reduce profitability, and pledged not to direct corporate strategy or threaten to divest holdings to force policy changes.
A win for investors and energy sanity.
Here’s a case like Breaking Bad if Walter White were a Texas Tech supply chain professor dealing fentanyl. “Daniel Taylor, age 50, has been charged with federal crimes and is no longer employed by the university.”
Rural Texas residents claim that a Muslim city is being built in their backyard and accuse local officials of being very secretive about the deal.
Kaufman, Texas, residents didn’t think much of it when Kaufman Solar LLC bought a massive parcel of land in 2022. However, now that a mysterious buyer from the Middle East is looking to purchase an estimated 2,000 acres of land right next door to the planned solar farm to establish a sustainable city, they are worried about the impact.
Snip.
The Kaufman County Commissioner Court meeting Jan. 20 confirms that a buyer, through a Dallas, Texas, law firm, is seeking to purchase the land, contingent on the county approving three new municipal water districts for a potential sustainable city. The lawyer verified that the potential developer is SEE Holding, a UAE-based, privately held global holding group headquartered in Dubai, apparently focused on sustainability and spearheading a net-zero emissions future.
Republican Rep. Lance Gooden also told the Daily Caller that the buyer is based in Dubai, which he says raises serious concerns that need to be addressed before any approval for the city is potentially granted.
Right now the “Islamic City” aspect is all hearsay, but it does look, at the very least, a little funny…
Given the Epstein-based charges against Prince Andrew, Mark Felton examines his service in the Falklands campaign to determine if he actually came under fire and served honorably. The answer to both seems to be yes.
Good: Richard Hammond drives a 3,000 horsepower electric hypercar. Bad: It’s made in China. Ball’s in your court, Elon…
When a sitting Texas Republican Senator endorses the primary opponent of a sitting Texas Republican congressman, that’s news, and Ted Cruz has endorsed Steve Toth over incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the Texas Second Congressional primary race:
I am proud to endorse @SteveTothTX for Congress in Texas’s 2nd Congressional District.
Steve faithfully served the people of Texas in the Texas House of Representatives, championing our Texas values of liberty, limited government, and constitutional governance.
I am proud to endorse @SteveTothTX for Congress in Texas’s 2nd Congressional District.
Steve faithfully served the people of Texas in the Texas House of Representatives, championing our Texas values of liberty, limited government, and constitutional governance.
Steve is an unwavering fighter for school choice, fiscal responsibility, and the next generation of Americans. Washington needs bold leadership and representatives who will stand up for Texans at every turn.
Steve has the experience, the courage, and the conviction to do just that. I’m honored to support his campaign and urge voters in Texas’s 2nd Congressional District to join me in electing Steve Toth to Congress.
Though his voting record has generally been conservative, there’s been an increasing amount of conservative dissatisfaction with Crenshaw over the years, much of it centered over accusations of enriching himself while in office, including accusations of insider stock trading.
Toth has a very conservative record in the Texas House, but Cruz supporting him over Crenshaw suggests that there may be some fire behind all that smoke.
Primary opponent Brandon Herrera has weighed in on incumbent Tony Gonzales’ extramarital affair, and it’s muy caliente.
In a sober, somber video, Herrera lays out the nigh-on-irrefutable evidence that the married Gonzales was having an extramarital affair with married aide Regina Ann Santos-Aviles, who ended up committing suicide.
“My plan this cycle has been to continue to tell the truth about Congressman Tony Gonzales and his voting record, how he continues to vote against the Constitution during his time in office.”
“However, in the last few days, the case that I’m about to discuss has become the subject of national debate. And so, I feel like I have an obligation to provide the most accurate details possible.”
“At this point, these are no longer allegations. This has now been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt to be true.”
“Regina Santos-Aviles was a regional director for Texas 23rd Congressional District Congressman Tony Gonzales. She was originally from Uvalde and had served prior running the Uvalde Chamber of Commerce.”
“On September 13th, 2025, first responders were called to her home after an alleged suicide via self-immolation, where she was declared dead the next day from her injuries. She left behind her husband and an 8-year-old son.”
“[Gonzales] did not attend the funeral.”
“Tony is a married man with six children and often uses his appearance as a family man for his public image.”
“It would also be completely against house ethics rules, subject to an investigation and penalties.”
“[Gonzales] canceled all media appearances and banned journalists and reporters from any of his future events.”
Then things died down a bit. “That was at least until early February, where a former Tony staffer from Uvalde, who worked hand-in-hand with Regina for two years for the congressman, decided to risk potential repercussions and come forward. Not only did he have his personal account of Regina telling about the affair with Tony, but he also brought forward screenshots of Regina admitting to the affair, specifically texting the staffer, and I quote, ‘I had an affair with our boss,’ obviously referencing Tony. He even told about the facilitation of his family cabin for Tony, which he only later found out was used for extramarital activities.”
“And now the bombshell. In the last week, Regina’s husband has stepped forward. Not only was he personally willing to confirm the affair, but he went on to go and tell his side of the story that he was keeping private out of concerns for his son.”
“He also came forward with text messages from Regina’s phone confirmed by forensic software, showing that not only was Tony involved in a sexual relationship with Regina, but that he pressured her into it from a position of power with her, even mentioning several times that he was going too far and even at one point asking if he was sober. These are only a handful of texts that have been put forward of what I’m told are thousands of texts between Regina and Tony.”
I’m going to skip posting the majority of the texts and merely point out that a married congressman sexting a female subordinate to ask her favorite sexual positions and asking “Anal?” really isn’t something I see Gonzales dismissing away as innocent chit-chat.
“These texts and the confirmation of a long-denied affair have sparked national outcry. Local state rep Wes Virdell has called for Tony to step down while members of Congress have either asked for him to suspend his campaign or even outright resignation.”
“It has also come out that the House Ethics Committee has launched its own investigation.”
“At this point, we know beyond a shadow of a doubt that Tony Gonzales is guilty of an extramarital affair and lying to his family, the press, and the people, of abusing a position as a member of Congress for sexual misconduct, and wrecking a home to the degree that a young woman is now dead.”
“It is now irrefutable that Tony Gonzales is a wicked man and must be removed.”
Herrera has also set up a Go Fund Me for Santos-Aviles’s husband and son.
Herrera, despite being vastly outspent by Gonzales, only lost the 2024 primary by some 400 votes. Voters will get a chance to punish Gonzales for his sins by retiring him next Tuesday.
As promised, here’s a look a the Republican primary races for Comptroller and Railroad Commissioner.
The Comptroller race features incumbent Kelly Hancock (who was appointed comptroller by Governor Greg Abbott after Glenn Hegar resigned to become Texas A&M system chairman), plus challengers former state senator Donald Huffines, Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick, and longshot Michael Berlanga (who, at last count, had raised zero dollars for the race).
The pick here is easily Don Huffines, who has a long history of conservative activism on a wide variety of issues, from school choice to controlling the border to ending the Flu Manchu lockdowns, and he was always a reliable vote for conservative interests in the state senate. He even challenged Abbott from the right in the 2022 gubernatorial primary, finishing third behind Abbott and Allen West. His endorsement list includes Ted Cruz, Ron Paul, Charlie Kirk, and Vivek Ramaswamy, plus every single conservative group Texas Scorecard polled (True Texas Project, Texas Gun Rights, Texas Family Project, Grassroots America: We The People (GAWTP), Texas Right to Life (TRL), and Texans Uniting for Reform and Freedom (TURF)).
Hancock, in addition to being selected rather than elected, is too cozy with gambling interests and voted to impeach Ken Paxton. So he’s right out, no matter how much money he’s thrown around to advertise on conservative websites.
I’ve voted for Craddick for Railroad Commissioner, but she’s always seemed to be slight squishy and trading on her former speaker father’s name. The most famous person endorsing her seems to be H. Ross Perot, Jr., which is not a recommendation.
Speaking of the Railroad Commissioner, this is theoretically a five way race, but three of the candidates (Katherine Culbert, Hawk Dunlap II and Ty Matlock) are badly-funded longshots. The real race is between incumbent Jim Wright and Tarrant County Republican Party Chairman Bo French. French announced for the race in November, promises an “America first” approach.
The Texas oil and gas industry needs a strong defender who will never back down to leftist pressure,” said French. “As your next Railroad Commissioner, I will fight to end DEI, radical climate change ideology, and foreign capture of our oil and gas industries. I am the battle-tested conservative in this race, and I will always fight to put America First.”
Sounds good, and his list of conservative endorsements confirms he’s most conservative candidate in the race. That Texas Scorecard round up shows every conservative org endorsing him ((True Texas Project, Texas Gun Rights, Texas Family Project, Texas Right to Life, and Texans Uniting for Reform and Freedom) except Grassroots America: We The People, who endorsed Wright.
But the real record-scratch moment on Jim Wright’s endorsements is the presence of state rep Charlie Geren, the Joe Straus loyalist French previously primaried. Geren helped instigate the impeachment proceedings against Paxton and may have had an operative file a false CPS report against French. Having Charlie Geren endorse someone is a pretty good sign you should vote for his opponent.
Microsoft has long had a reputation of an abusive company, all the way back to its origins, when Gary Kildall accused Bill Gates of stealing parts of CP/M for DOS. The list of lawsuits against Microsoft for anti-competitive or shady business business practices is so extensive it has its own Wikipedia article. But it’s latest moves to force both subscription models and AI into every nook and crevice of its software may be the final straws that break the Borg’s back, as longtime Windows users finally seem to be abandoning ship.
Last month, I met with a mid-sized law firm facing a common dilemma. Their Windows 10 laptops were nearing the end of support and needed to be replaced. Typically, this meant buying new hardware and software—predictable and straightforward. But this time, Microsoft suggested a different approach: move to Windows 365 Cloud PCs, a PC that operates with a monthly subscription and is accessible from any device, scalable, secure, and AI-enhanced. The catch? The shift from ownership to a subscription model and reduced local control led their IT team to question how “personal” these computers truly were.
Cloud subscriptions replace personal computing
The experience of this law firm encapsulates a major industry shift: Today, you don’t buy Windows, you rent access to it. Windows 365 Cloud PCs began as a business-only experiment at Microsoft but have grown into its central product and are now the primary road map, with local Windows installations becoming a mere stepping stone to cloud-based desktops. With tools like Windows 365 Boot, users can bypass the traditional local operating system altogether, landing directly into a personalized, cloud-streamed environment, even on third-party or bring-your-own devices.
Hardware no longer anchors the user’s experience; the familiar PC is now a portal into a metered utility controlled, updated, and managed by Microsoft. Windows 365 Switch blurs the line even further, allowing seamless migration between cloud and local environments. With each step, more user agency is surrendered in exchange for the convenience of a cloud-managed world.
The AI revolution and hardware
As if the cloud weren’t enough, artificial intelligence is muddying the waters. Microsoft is loud about a future built on AI PCs, touting Copilot integration, neural processing units (NPUs), and specialized hardware. But as Dell’s own product head recently admitted, customers aren’t flocking to buy these new devices for AI alone; the proposition is too abstract, and the day-to-day benefits too unclear. In reality, most significant leaps in AI are happening in the cloud, not on the desktop. Even Jeff Bezos framed the future simplistically: AI will appear everywhere, but it will live in the cloud.
Meanwhile, Microsoft is aggressively pushing its users to rely on its AI-powered tools and ecosystem, with access controlled through subscriptions. Gone is the idea of installing and running your own AI applications locally; instead, users are nudged to rent access to AI services, hosted and updated in Microsoft’s cloud. The notion of the self-managed PC is fast giving way to a persistent, subscription-based rental of power and capability, with AI primarily serving as another tool for vendor lock-in.
Hidden costs and loss of control
Businesses and individuals face new economic realities. The traditional model—investing in hardware for five years—is replaced by an ever-escalating treadmill. A basic Windows 365 Cloud PC costs about $41 a month for 8GB, excluding Office or AI add-ons. Vendors pitch this as a trade-off against the hidden costs and complexity of managing local computers in hybrid work. Before long, subscription fees will become just another line item in ballooning IT expenses.
Perhaps more concerning is the core loss of control. The local PC gave users the keys. They owned, updated, installed, and protected their own digital spaces. The new cloud-and-AI reality puts Microsoft in charge of software, identity, AI tools, and even privacy decisions. The old personal computer offered freedom; the new model is managed, metered, and routinely adjusted to fit Microsoft’s evolving business interests. Yes, security can benefit. Yes, patching and remote management are simplified for companies. But every user now sits one step further removed from the heart of their own computing experience.
That was linked by this piece, which was linked from Borepatch, who has further thoughts.
What this means is that you don’t own any Microsoft software. Sure, you may think that because you paid them money (most often when you bought your computer – some of that purchase price went to Microsoft in the form of a license fee for Windows). But you actually don’t own “your” copy of software. At all.
Rather, you have the right to run the software on your computer. That may not seem like a big difference, but it is. The license agreement (you know, the one you didn’t read before you clicked “I Agree”) allows Microsoft to change the terms of the agreement at any time, at their pleasure.
Microsoft has just done this in a big, big way. Key new stuff in Windows 11 is:
AI integrated with your operating system
Online presence is critical for lots of Windows now (e.g. AI)
Windows will nag you until you put all your data online (OneDrive) whether you want to or not.
The proper technical term for that first bullet point is that your Windows operating system is essentially now an “AI Agent” which if you are a regular reader you know is very, very bad security juju.
Combine this enormous security hole with the requirement to essentially be online 100% of the time (bad security) and the liklihood that OneDrive will slurp all your data to some Internet black hole in a Microsoft data center, Windows is simply unsecurable.
Yes, I know that is inflammatory, but there is simply no way that you can get assurance that your security is sane. I say that as someone who has spent decades inn Internet Security (and particularly in security assurance). Not to put too fine a point on it, but I don’t think that I could get decent assurance that things aren’t going “bump in the Net”. For most of the readers here, it’s not even worth trying.
And that AI, Copilot, is not only widely loathed by users, but is creating brand spanking new security holes.
“We’ve been following Microsoft and all their massive missteps over the last several months. Most of it related to AI and pushing AI into consumer products and pushing it on to people who don’t want it.”
“There’s an error with Copilot. Apparently, it can can read your email. That’s great. And Copilot is sort of the bedrock of Windows 11. It’s very hard to get rid of Copilot. They want to put it in everything, including Notepad.”
“Copilot slows everything down. I would highly recommend you turn it off.” If you can figure out how. Kneon recommends Linux Mint if you want a Windows-like experience.
“Look, Microsoft is not secure. And just realize if you’re using it, especially for business, if you don’t want anybody to see it, you probably shouldn’t use their tools.”
“A work tab within Copilot chat had summarized email messages stored in a user’s draft and sent folders even when they had a sensitivity label on it and a data loss prevention policy configured to prevent unauthorized data sharing.” Sounds like Copilot is as indifferent to your privacy and security as Microsoft on the whole.
“I don’t know if you can hurt Xbox anymore, because Xbox is a dying brand, but the new boss, who comes from an AI background, promises not to flood it with soulless AI slop. This is Asha Sharma, formerly the head of Microsoft’s AI division, which is causing problems. Now she’s in charge of Xbox. She promises many more great games made by humans.”
Sharma blather about how Xbox will run across multiple platforms instead of a console snipped. “Are we seeing first signs that Xbox is dead and about to be consumed by Microsoft? I think that’s 100% what’s going to happen.”
“I think they’re going to basically AI themselves into the wood chipper. I think it’s very clear that that’s all they care about right now, if they’re putting the head of AI in charge of gaming and she’s talking cloud and AI and all that. Yeah, it’s over, man.”
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella is facing some accusations of “Indian nepotism” for putting Sharma in charge of Xbox, especially since she has no background in gaming development. Of course, Microsoft has long been accused of abusing the H1-B visa system to bring over cheap workers. Indeed, this MSN India piece crows about it.
According to official H-1B filings submitted to the US Department of Labor between 2012 and 2023, Microsoft filed over 50,000 H-1B visa applications, and approximately 70 to 80 percent of these applications were for Indian nationals. This makes Indians the largest group in Microsoft’s US-based technical talent pipeline. The data shows a consistent year-on-year trend where Indian engineers make up the majority of Microsoft’s skilled immigrant workforce.
Snip.
Multiple research estimates and workforce studies indicate that 26 to 30 percent of Microsoft’s global technical workforce is Indian or Indian-origin.
Snip.
Microsoft operates one of its biggest global R&D centres in Hyderabad, which works on products including Azure, Office, Windows, LinkedIn integration, AI/ML systems and cybersecurity. The India Development Center (IDC), established in 1998, is one of Microsoft’s oldest and largest development facilities outside Redmond. This drives significant recruitment of Indian engineers for advanced research and product development roles.
Snip.
A review of Microsoft’s global leadership roster shows notable Indian-origin executives including Satya Nadella (CEO), Rajesh Jha (EVP), Suresh Kumar (EVP), Anil Bhansali (VP Engineering), and dozens of corporate vice presidents and product heads. This demonstrates the substantial representation of Indian-origin professionals in high-level technical and management roles within the company.
But Microsoft also has a Jeffrey Epstein problem. Do a search on founder and former CEO Bill Gates in the Epstein files and you get 2,616 results. Nor is he the only Epstein-connected person of interest high in the ranks of Microsoft. Financier and Democrat megadonor Reid Hoffman is still listed on the Microsoft board, despite being notoriously close to Epstein and showing up in the Epstein files 2,667 times. (Also on the board: Former Obama Commerce Department head Penny Pritzker, sister of Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker and aunt to Epstein friend Tom Pritzker, whose name shows up 2,524 times in the Epstein files.)
Even before Microsoft jumped on the AI bus (or, if you prefer, off the AI cliff), it was notorious for security holes in its software, and there’s precious little evidence that the AI age has made anything better. The latest “Patch Tuesday” featured fixes for no less than six Zero Day exploits.
What all this amounts to: Anyone still on Windows should look to move to Linux if they have the technical chops to do so, or Apple if they don’t. Though Apple has dabbled with subscription services as well, they’re still overwhelmingly a hardware company that wants to sell you the latest shiny. And Apple has been dinged for its “lazy” approach to AI, which may turn put to be the smartest move after all. “Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet are projected to spend around $700 billion combined on capital expenditures in 2026, much of it on AI data centers and hardware — Apple plans just $14 billion.” That means they’re less likely to try and shove it into every damn thing. And I know my now-relatively-ancient MacBook Pro keeps working even when the Internet is down.
If you’re still on Windows, now might be the time to get out while the getting is good…
Megacorporations are telling businesses that their AI offerings are good enough to run vital company functions. The problem is, those AIs are still screwing up, and frequently in ways humans wouldn’t screw up. That’s what Amazon found out when they tried to eat their own dogfood, putting their AI in charge of Amazon Web Services. It didn’t go well.
Are AI tools reliable enough to be used at in commercial settings? If so, should they be given “autonomy” to make decisions? These are the questions being raised after at least two internet outages at Amazon’s cloud division were allegedly caused by blundering AI agents, according to new reporting from the Financial Times.
In one incident in December, engineers at Amazon Web Services allowed its in-house Kiro “agentic” coding tool to make changes that sparked a 13-hour disruption, according to four sources familiar with the matter. The AI, ill-fatedly, had decided to “delete and recreate the environment,” the sources said.
When something is “in the cloud,” that means it’s sitting on someone else’s computer. More specifically, it’s probably running as a containerized instance on any of a number of other CPU and storage pools being run under a hypervisor to scale up or scale down resources as demand requires. This allows efficient use of those resources, and it’s made AWS Amazon’s most profitable business. And most of the time AWS works pretty well.
Amazon employees claimed that this was not the first service disruption involving an AI tool.
“We’ve already seen at least two production outages [in the past few months],” one senior AWS employee told the FT. “The engineers let the AI [agent] resolve an issue without intervention. The outages were small but entirely foreseeable.”
AWS launched its in-house coding assistant, Kiro, in July. The company describes the tool as an “autonomous” agent that can help deliver projects “from concept to production.” Another AI coding assistant developed by Amazon, described as an AI assistant, was involved in the earlier outage.
The employees said the AI tools were treated as an extension of an operator and given operator-level permissions. In both of the outages, the engineers didn’t require a second person’s approval before finalizing the changes, going against typical protocol.
In a statement to the FT, Amazon claimed the outage was an “extremely limited event” that affected only one service in parts of China.
I’m not sure I was aware AWS operated in China, but I guess I’m not surprised. Is it too much to ask that the China data centers are adequately segmented and firewalled from the American data centers?
Moreover, it was a “coincidence that AI tools were involved” and that “the same issue could occur with any developer tool or manual action,” it said.
Except usually code changes are usually run through rigorous testing in a continuous integration/continuous deployment pipeline, and then deployed to a test server for performance and regression testing. It’s not clear that was done here.
It also claimed that its Kiro AI “requests authorisation before taking any action,” but that the engineer involved in the December outage had more permissions than usual, calling this a “user access control issue, not an AI autonomy issue.”
“In both instances, this was user error, not AI error,” Amazon insisted.
True, in the sense that an Amazon engineer evidently allowed an AI to alter production code.
The company also claimed that it had not seen evidence that mistakes were more common with AI tools. To which we retort: is Amazon living under a rock? While AI and its foray into commercial applications remain nascent, there’s no shortage of evidence showing that the tools are prone to malfunctioning. Their proclivity for producing hallucinations, or instances in which they fabricate facts, is well documented. So are their weak guardrails. Even some of Amazon’s own employees are reluctant to use AI tools because of the risk of error, they told the FT.
Veteran programmers are finding that AI coding assistants consistently spit out botched code, with several studies showing that the frequent double and triple-checking the questionable outputs require in reality slow down software engineers, even though the AI, on a surface level, may be producing the code faster. The rise of “vibe coding” with AI has resulted in numerous blunders in which an agentic AI makes decisions that its owners didn’t intend.
Of course, it would not be much of a ringing endorsement if tech companies weren’t using the AI tools they claim will supercharge productivity in their own operations, and they’ve been more than willing to get high on their own supplies. Both Microsoft and Google boast that over a quarter of their code is now written with AI. Engineers at Anthropic and OpenAI have suggested that nearly 100 percent of their code is AI written.
This does not inspire me with confidence. Let’s pull out the relevant XKCD comic again:
The only reason the modern technological world works is that someone, somewhere understands at a deep level how each of those boxes work, and can fix it if something goes wrong. And for Open Source software, the source code for those boxes is available somewhere other people can look at it and understand it.
When you start replacing the code in some of those boxes with AI-generated code, you start losing the knowledge of how everything works and why. Maybe the AI is producing clear, well-documented code, but you can’t count on it. And the AI doesn’t understand code the way a human does, because and AI doesn’t understand anything in the way we mean it, it’s running on artificially evolved heuristics that have performed well designing things to pass documented test cases, but which have zero frameworks for handling unanticipated exceptions. And when it breaks, there’s no guarantee a human will understand how and why it broke.
And given competitive time-to-market pressures, you can be sure companies will increasingly ship AI code without adequate safeguards or sufficient testing because their service is down hard and the latest code fixes the last AI bug, so they’ll end up rolling the fix straight to production, and something in the fix will be an even more disasterous bug none of the test cases caught and everything will come tumbling down.
And if you do that with enough of those little boxes of digital infrastructure, the entire underpinings of modern online life may come tumbling down with it. And you can’t find people to fix it because you laid them off last year and replaced them with AI.
The problem with eating your own dog food is that sometimes it can be lousy, especially if you have no idea what went into it…
It’s hard to know just what the state of the Chinese economy is, given the CCP’s constant lies, but this Joe Blogs video suggests that Chinese manufacturers are in a world of hurt, with four straight years of deflation and falling profit margins.
“Chinese businesses are continuing to suffer from margin erosion. And this is an absolute disaster from China’s perspective, because Chinese businesses have very thin margins in the first place. And if these margins are now being cut, then many businesses in China have now actually fallen into a loss-making situation.”
“More than 50% of the companies in China are now estimated to be banking losses.”
“If you’re posting losses, you don’t pay any taxes, and that will drag down GDP growth in China. The Chinese authorities have said that they’re going to hit 5% again in 2026, but I think there is a major question mark over whether or not that is realistically achievable.” My working assumption is they just lied about hitting that target last year as well. And probably meany years before that.
“If we have a look at this table, it shows what’s been happening with producer prices over the past 12 months. And the scale on the right hand side here starts at zero and goes down to minus 4%. And as you can see, in every single one of the past 12 months, Chinese producers have been cutting their prices. This chart is also referred to as the factory gate prices. So this is the price of products when they’re leaving Chinese factories. And the latest data for January 2026 shows that year on year prices were down by 1.4%.”
“If you put that into the context of your economy, if prices were going down by 1.4%, then you’d be very happy as a consumer, because that means that you’re paying less at the tills.”
“But as a company, this is an absolute disaster. Because the reason why we want some form of inflation in the economy is because it allows companies to pass on their cost increases.”
“But if your end price is going down by 1.4%, then clearly you can’t pass on those cost increases. You have to absorb them. And this is why Chinese businesses are seeing their profit margins being wiped out.”
“And if we widen the scale of this chart to show the last five years, you can start to see the scale of the problem in China, because producer prices, factory gate prices have now been falling since May 2022.”
“What we’ve got here is a compounding of year-on-year falls in factory gate prices.”
“We have a look at this table I’ve put together. It shows what the impact of this has been on the sales price for a product. So if we assume that January 2022, which was the last time that we saw a price increase year-on-year in China, if we assume that a product that Chinese company was selling for $100 at that time, this shows what the impact has been on that product. So in the year to January 2023, prices fell by 8% producer prices. So that means that that $100 product would have then been selling for $99.20. In January 2024, the year-on-year fall was 2.5%. So that $100 product would then be have sold would have been been selling for $96.72. In 2025 there was a 2.3% fall in producer prices. So that product by then would have been down to $94.50. And the 1.4% that we’ve just seen posted means that that $100 product that was being sold in 2022 would now be selling for $93.17.”
Is this deflation mirrored in Chinese consumer inflation prices? No. “It has been a bit of a mixed story. The scale on the right hand side here goes from 1% positive at the top to 1% negative at the bottom. And as you can see, in six out of the past 12 months, prices did actually fall, but they’ve been increasing over the past four months. And you can see that the latest data that we have for January 2026 shows that year on year prices are up by .2%. So that doesn’t explain the 1.4% fall in producer prices in January 2026.”
“And we widen the scale of this chart to show the past five years. You can see that whilst there has been a few months where we’ve seen deflation, it’s predominantly been inflation in China. It’s a relatively low level compared to other countries, we’re talking between 1% and 2%. So a lot less than we’ve seen in the West over the past five years. But we’ve still seen prices going up.”
“And if we have a look at this table, it shows what’s happened to prices over the same period. So if we assume the same $100 product in January 2022 that we just looked at for producer prices, in 2023 prices actually went up by 2.1%. So that product would have been selling for $102.10 at that time. We saw deflation in January 2024, which would have brought the price back down to $101.28. In 2025, we saw a year-on-year increase of .5%. So it would have pushed that that price to $101.79. And the most recent data for January 26 of 2% increase tells us that that product would now be selling for $101.99. So an increase in the price.”
“And if we have a look at the comparison between those two tables, then you can see here the producer prices between January 22 and 26, the $100 product has gone from $100 to $93.17. That’s what the companies are receiving for that same product. At the same time, inflation has gone up by 1.99% over that period. That pushed up the price to 101.99. So the gap between those two metrics, what’s been happening with inflation? If producer prices had just been moving at the same rate as inflation, the difference between the two is $8.82 over the past five years. That represents lost profit margin for Chinese businesses over the past five years of 8.6%. So that’s how much profit has been taken out by the fall in producer prices compared to what should have been happening if they were matching inflation.”
“Now why is this happening?”
“Why are Chinese businesses constantly cutting their prices when prices in the domestic market are going up? Well, there’s a number of reasons for it, but one of the main reasons is down to overcapacity.”
“Chinese industry has been gearing up heavily over the past 20 years. So in areas where China believes that it’s strong, it’s put a lot of investment and the government has subsidized a lot of these companies in many situations to enable them to grow rapidly to take a dominant global market position. So we have got some huge businesses in sectors where China has tried to become dominant.”
“If we have a look at this table, it shows the different industries in China that are the biggest in terms of revenue and what that should mean in terms of profitability for those businesses.”
“So the biggest sector in terms of manufacturing is computers, electronics, and telecom equipment. So I’m sure you’ve seen lots of different equipment that’s been made in China over the past 20 years. It’s estimated that that sector has revenue of around about $2.2 trillion US, and that should be equating to around about $165 billion of profits. The usual profit margin is around 7.5% for Chinese businesses in those sectors. But those sectors are currently under a lot of pressure.”
“Firstly, we’ve seen its biggest single market, the USA, applying tariffs against Chinese imports. So, that’s causing problems because it’s pushing up the price. And in order to counteract those tariff increases, some Chinese businesses have actually been cutting their cost to absorb some of those tariffs. But also, we’re seeing competition from the rest of the world.”
“So Chinese businesses are constantly slashing their prices to be the cheapest on the shelf because, realistically, that’s why a lot of consumers choose the Chinese option.”
“So that sector is under pressure at the moment. So that’s one of the reasons why those companies are cutting back on their prices.”
“Now another area which is absolutely huge for Chinese businesses is electric vehicles, batteries and solar. So this is an area that China has really specialized in. It’s cornered the market in batteries and solar panels. Most of them are made in China these days. But also electric vehicles. It decided to take a big slice of the global market and those electric vehicles are being sold at very low prices compared to local competition. So if you compare a Chinese electric vehicle the actual list price of that versus things like BMW, Volkswagen, Ford, they are a lot cheaper.”
“That’s one of the reasons why a lot of countries have been applying tariffs on the electric vehicles. So this is aside from Donald Trump’s tariffs. We’re talking about the whole industry globally is saying that it’s not fair that EVs are being subsidized. In terms of revenue, it’s around about $1.9 trillion for China and the usual profit margins around about 7% on that. But they’re under a lot of pressure because of the tariffs. Now a lot of countries are saying that China is trying to put the rest of the world out of business so that it can become completely monopolistic in these areas. So they’re under high pressure, and that’s another reason why Chinese companies are cutting their prices.”
“Jump down to some of the things that are related to property. Look at ferrous metals, which are basically steel. China has some of the biggest steel smelting plants in the world. It’s a big producer of steel. The revenue is about $1.3 trillion. Now the profit margin on steel is wafer thin. 2.2%. And the problem that China has is twofold at the moment.”
“Firstly, a lot of that steel was being sold into the Chinese market for the property market, because the property market over the past 25 years was booming the first 20 years of the 20th century. It was absolutely on fire. Lots of massive property developers like Evergrande were building whole cities all across China and they were using a huge amount of steel to do that. They building these huge tower blocks and you have to put a lot of steel in there.”
“The properties sector has absolutely crashed in China over the past few years, since the government changed the rules and made it more difficult for property developers to borrow money. There hasn’t been anywhere near as much production. So that’s caused a huge drop off in demand in China for steel itself.”
“So that’s meant that Chinese steel businesses have had to look to the export markets. But similar to what’s been happening in the electric vehicle market, a lot of countries, including the USA, have pushed back on Chinese steel imports because they are so cheap that they are killing local steel production. And in the UK, the British government had to recently take over the last virgin steel producer in the UK to make sure that it could actually produce steel that was needed for things like the defense sector. So we’ve seen a major attack globally on the whole steel industry, and lots of countries have pushed back on that.”
“So the steel industry in China is now under a lot of pressure. It’s struggling with regards to demand and those profit margins have been wiped out.”
“But we’ve got a lot of different sectors here that are under intense pressure at the moment from competition. And that’s one of the factors why Chinese businesses are cutting their prices.”
“In addition to that, Chinese businesses are also seeing weak demand at home. Chinese consumers are not buying as much stuff as they used to. So Chinese companies are cutting their prices to try to encourage consumers to keep buying.”
“And as that demand falls at home, what that means is that Chinese businesses are having to depend on the export markets more. So, Chinese companies are struggling with regards to its biggest single market, because the USA has hit all Chinese imports with additional tariffs. So, that’s led to a further cutting of prices and Chinese businesses basically across the board are geared up for high volume, low margin. And when demand starts to fall, then the only thing that you can do is cut your price.”
“Because if you’ve got a huge fixed cost business, if you’ve spent billions building up your business, maybe it’s lots of machinery, you’ve got lots of people, you’ve got huge factories, you need to hit those volume numbers just to keep the wafer thin profit margins going.”
“If demand starts falling, you can’t cut back on your costs because these are very high fixed cost businesses. So what Chinese businesses are doing instead is slashing their prices to maintain their volume of sales. But that is wiping out their profit margins. And that’s why many Chinese businesses, over 50%, are now banking losses.”
“And of course, this is an absolute disaster from the Chinese economy point of view, because it needs those companies to keep contributing to make profits to pay taxes to contribute to GDP in order to hit that 5% GDP total.”
“What we’re seeing from the data that’s just been published is that producer prices are continuing to fall.”
“Inflation is still very, very low in China. Consumer demand is very weak. So China remains dependent on the export markets. Many export markets are pushing back against Chinese imports.”
“Chinese businesses are having to cut their prices, which is further reducing their profit margins. Many have moved into losses, and this is a complete nightmare, vicious circle from many of these companies’ perspective. And I can’t see how they’re going to get out of this situation.”
China’s economy has long been smoke and mirrors all the way down. To be sure, China has made real gains, joining (and gaming) the world economic system just in time to see explosive growth thanks to global trade deals, the container ship era, rampant IP theft, and western capitalists eager to exploit cheap labor. But the rest of the world slowly caught on to China’s tricks, especially since China thought they could get away with belligerent, militarist, expansionist rule-breaking aggression against at the same time it was striving to become the world’s manufacturing hub.
Now that the world’s caught on, people are starting to realize that much of China’s “economic miracle” was an illusion. The opaque banking rules, the government subsidies, the insane “ghost cities” property boom and the regime’s strict currency controls all helped to hide the manipulations, making China’s economy look healthier than it actually is. But now the entire house of cards is tumbling down, and China has no one to blame but itself.
